Executive Summary

Q3 2025 showed strong operations with 39% YoY production growth to 36.0 MBoe/d, a company-record single-day rate of 47.9 MBoe/d in October, and adjusted EBITDAX of $60.0M; however, revenue of $79.7M was below consensus while EPS beat on company-reported figures .
Management raised full-year 2025 production guidance to 33.5–35 MBoe/d and narrowed total development CapEx to $270–$292M, signaling higher confidence in the back-half execution and capital discipline .
The Board authorized a $75M share repurchase program; at ~15.6M Class A shares outstanding, management highlighted potential to retire >40% of Class A shares at ~$11.50, framing a powerful capital return catalyst alongside a robust liquidity position ($304M) following a borrowing base increase to $375M on Oct 1 .
Costs improved materially: cash operating costs fell to $6.09/BOE (vs $9.42/BOE last year), and adjusted EBITDAX margin expanded to $18.12/Boe (vs $16.48 in Q2), aided by increased natural gas weighting and operational efficiency .
Near-term stock narrative catalysts: buyback execution, continued Pennsylvania gas turn-in-lines (six wells planned for Q4), declining per-unit costs, and the potential 2026 deep dry gas Utica test discussion, balanced by commodity-price sensitivity and tariff/macro headwinds noted on the call .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Production outperformance and operational execution: 39% YoY growth to 36.0 MBoe/d; 10 wells turned to sales in Q3 (six Ohio oil, four Pennsylvania gas); record 47.9 MBoe/d single-day rate in October .
Costs and margins improved: cash operating costs down to $6.09/BOE; adjusted EBITDAX margin $18.12/Boe, with management emphasizing top-tier margins vs Appalachian peers and continued cost declines as gas volumes ramp .
Strategic flexibility and asset “ground game”: ~3,000 net acres acquired across ~350 transactions in Q3, increasing working interests and effectively adding ~one net well to 2025 at the same spend; guidance raised, liquidity expanded .
- Quote: “These working interest additions are among the highest returning dollars we invest…” .

What Went Wrong

Revenue below consensus: Q3 revenue was $79.7M vs S&P Global consensus of ~$85.8M, despite strong production; EPS beat, but revenue miss may temper top-line sentiment (see Estimates Context) .
Tariffs and macro noted as development cost/efficiency factors and potential headwinds; management cited tariffs impacting dollar-per-foot costs though tracking well vs plan .
Prior midstream constraints (Q2 Ohio) forced temporary curtailments and sequencing changes; resolved by Q3, but illustrates operational risk in third-party infrastructure (important for modelers tracking Ohio oil projects) .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)	$85.165*	$74.476	$79.726
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$2.1582*	$1.18	$0.65
Adjusted EBITDAX ($USD Millions)	$57.246	$49.641	$60.049
Adjusted EBITDAX Margin ($/Boe)	$23.96	$16.48	$18.12
Cash Operating Costs ($/Boe)	$8.42	$7.93	$6.09

Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Vs estimates (Q3 2025):

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$85.831	$79.726	Miss: -$6.105
Primary EPS ($USD)	$0.458	$0.65	Beat: +$0.192
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$60.840	$60.049 (Adj. EBITDAX proxy)	Slight miss: -$0.791

Values in the Consensus column retrieved from S&P Global. Note: Company reports Adjusted EBITDAX; we present it as the nearest proxy to consensus EBITDA.

Segment/Production Breakdown

Metric	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Net daily production Ohio (MBoe/d)	19.5	21.0
Net daily production Pennsylvania (MBoe/d)	13.6	15.0
Production mix – Oil	19%	22%
Production mix – NGLs	18%	14%
Production mix – Natural Gas	63%	64%

KPIs

KPI	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Wells turned to sales	1 oil-weighted well in Q2 Ohio	10 wells (6 Ohio oil-weighted, 4 PA gas-weighted)
Lateral feet placed into sales (gross)	83k feet across six wells placed in Q1 (context) and 86k feet in July post-Q2 close (context)	~162k feet across ten wells
Stages pumped (completed)	777 stages (8 wells completed)	442 stages across 6 wells completed; record >16 stages in 24 hours
Single-day net production record	—	47.9 MBoe/d (October)

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Net daily production	FY 2025	32–35 MBoe/d	33.5–35 MBoe/d	Raised/Narrowed to high end
Total development CapEx (D&C + midstream)	FY 2025	Combined high end $249–$292M (D&C $240–$280 + midstream $9–$12)	$270–$292M	Narrowed upward at low end
Borrowing base	As of Oct 1, 2025	$—	$375M; Liquidity $304M	Increased
Share repurchase authorization	Program	None	Up to $75M Class A shares	New program

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
AI/power gen demand for gas	Q2: In-basin demand/egress; AI/power gen potentially supplanting new pipeline needs, improving pricing outlook	Continued constructive view on gas; strong PA gas performance; hedging remains prudent	Positive tailwind for gas
Supply chain/midstream	Q2: Ohio midstream constraint temporarily curtailed; resolved post-quarter	No anticipated midstream constraints; building out own gas midstream	Improving reliability
Tariffs/macro	Q2: Cost focus; macro volatility discussed generally	CFO: Tariffs affect costs, but tracking well vs plan	Manageable headwind
Product/asset performance	Q1–Q2: Strong PA Marcellus wells; long laterals in Ohio Utica	Best-producing projects in both states; record operational stats	Continuing outperformance
Rigs/pace of activity	Q2: ~1.2 rigs in 2025; moving to one rig/one crew later in year	2026 at least as active as 2025 (~≥1.2 rigs); mix flexible	Sustained activity
Regulatory/legal	Ongoing SEC/IR disclosures via 8-K; leadership additions in Q3 timeline	Standard forward-looking disclosures; no new legal/regulatory disruptions	Stable
R&D/technology	Leadership hire: VP of Technology (cybersecurity/enterprise risk)	Continued digital/tech enablement emphasis	Capability build
Hedging strategy	Q2: Active hedging for return-secure projects	Well-hedged through 2025; volumes adjusted as strong well performance increases exposure	Prudent with upside

Management Commentary

“We delivered exceptional operational performance in the third quarter, with production averaging 36.0 MBoe/d, representing 39% total production growth and 70% natural gas production growth compared to the third quarter 2024… The turn in lines led to a Company single day net production record of 47.9 MBoe/d in October.” — Zack Arnold, President & CEO .
“We generated adjusted EBITDA of $60 million during the quarter and an adjusted EBITDA margin of $18.12 per BOE… We expect per-unit costs will continue to decline as we accelerate Pennsylvania production.” — David Sproule, EVP & CFO .
“Our land acquisition strategy continues to deliver results… increase our working interest in ongoing development projects… effectively added approximately one net well to our 2025 development program.” — David Sproule .
“We are updating our full-year total development capital expenditure guidance to a range of $270–$292 million… inside the higher end of our previous combined DNC and midstream CapEx guidance.” — Zack Arnold .

Q&A Highlights

Buyback vs growth investments: CFO emphasized buybacks will not impede development/M&A; shares viewed as significantly undervalued; opportunistic execution .
Hedging: Well-hedged through 2025 on gas; hedge percentages vary as strong PA gas performance increases unhedged exposure; approach locks in returns at FID, upsized at completion .
2026 activity and commodity mix: Company expects activity at least as high as 2025 (~≥1.2 rigs); maintains optionality across oil and gas with attractive returns in both states .
Production trajectory: October’s 47.9 MBoe/d was a daily spot rate tied to new wells; six Q4 turn-in-lines planned (three already online at call time) .
Share repurchase mechanics: Focused on Class A shares (~15.6M outstanding); at ~$11.50, $75M authorization could retire >40% of Class A shares .

Estimates Context

How results compared to Wall Street consensus (S&P Global):

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)	$79.848M	$83.391M	$85.831M
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)	$0.678	$0.455	$0.458
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($USD)	$56.649M	$55.250M	$60.840M
Primary EPS – # of Estimates	5	6	5
Revenue – # of Estimates	6	6	7

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Q3 scorecard: EPS beat (company diluted EPS $0.65 vs $0.458 consensus) while revenue missed ($79.7M vs $85.8M). Adjusted EBITDAX at $60.0M is slightly below the ~$60.8M EBITDA consensus (non-GAAP vs GAAP proxy) .
Implications: Models may need to lower revenue assumptions near term (mix/pricing) while incorporating stronger cost performance and higher gas weighting; buyback authorization adds per-share accretion tailwind.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Operational execution remains the core driver: record turn-in-lines, improving per-unit costs, and strong PA gas performance support durable margins and FCF cadence .
Guidance raised and narrowed: higher confidence in hitting the top end of production and staying within the tightened CapEx range should de-risk Q4 setup .
Capital return adds a new catalyst: $75M buyback authorization can be meaningfully accretive given Class A float and management’s undervaluation view .
Watch Q4 turn-in-lines and cost trajectory: six Q4 wells (3 gas pending) plus continued cost declines can drive sequential improvement; monitor realized prices vs hedges .
Balanced portfolio optionality: flexibility to lean into gas or oil projects based on returns and macro supports resilience into 2026 (≥1.2 rig activity expected) .
Risks: Tariffs/macro, commodity prices, and third-party infrastructure (though midstream constraints resolved and internal build-out ongoing) .
Liquidity and leverage strengths: net debt ~$71M and liquidity ~$304M post borrowing base increase underpin buyback capacity and optionality for organic/inorganic growth .

Notes: 
- Document citations refer to SEC 8-K/press release and call transcript sources. 
- All S&P Global consensus and “actual” values (if marked with *) are retrieved from S&P Global.

INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES, INC. (INR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary