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Inland Real Estate Income Trust, Inc. (INRE)·Q4 2021 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Inland Real Estate Income Trust (INRE) increased its estimated NAV per share to $20.20 as of December 31, 2021, up ~11.7% year over year, driven by lower cap rates, improved market rents, and lower debt fair value; the Board set DRP purchases at $20.20 and SRP repurchases at $16.16 per share .
  • Portfolio occupancy remained high into year-end: 93.4% physical and 93.9% economic; ABR per square foot averaged $17.79 excluding ground leases, underscoring stable property-level performance .
  • Distributions were reinstated in 2021 at $0.1356 per quarter for Q2–Q4; the SRP was reinstated (Aug 12) and processed repurchases, though funding remains tied to DRP proceeds .
  • No Q4 earnings call transcript or traditional press release was found; management communication centered on the NAV update and strategic plan, including flexibility from charter changes and ongoing evaluation of a future listing/liquidity event .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • NAV increased ~11.7% YoY to $20.20 per share, reflecting sector recovery, lower terminal cap rates/discount rates, and higher market rents; Board selected a value near (but below) the CBRE midpoint .
  • High occupancy persisted across 2020–2021; “our well-located centers were 93.9 percent occupied” and management highlighted strong demand for small shop spaces at attractive rents .
  • Distributions were reinstated ($0.1356 per share quarterly), DRP restarted (July 22, 2021), and SRP reinstated (Aug 12, 2021), improving investor cash flow and limited liquidity optionality .

Selected quotes:

  • “The retail shopping center sector experienced a record pace of recovery in 2021…” .
  • “Our well-located centers were 93.9 percent occupied… We are pleased to note that our high occupancy continued throughout 2020 and 2021.” .
  • “We have measured optimism about the future of retail real estate and believe the Inland Income Trust portfolio is well-positioned.” .

What Went Wrong

  • Exposure to non-grocery big box remains material (36% of ABR), a segment management believes is more negatively impacted by shifting consumer preferences and internet competition .
  • Two mortgage loans required covenant-driven principal paydowns (~$13.8M on Sep 30, 2021) to meet minimum Assumed DSCR, highlighting pockets of financing pressure .
  • Liquidity remains constrained: the SRP funding limit ties repurchases to DRP proceeds, and there is still no established public market; distributions are at a 3% annualized rate (based on prior NAV), and a listing timeline remains uncertain .

Financial Results

Quarterly performance (trend analysis across prior two quarters)

MetricQ2 2020Q3 2020Q2 2021Q3 2021
Rental income ($USD thousands)$26,176 $27,643 $29,372 $29,599
Total income ($USD thousands)$26,229 $27,672 $29,434 $29,659
Net loss ($USD thousands)$(4,313) $(3,191) $(446) $(559)
Net loss per share ($)$(0.12) $(0.09) $(0.01) $(0.02)
Interest expense ($USD thousands)$6,279 $6,283 $5,801 $5,876
Property operating expense ($USD thousands)$4,037 $4,460 $5,058 $5,040
Real estate tax expense ($USD thousands)$3,784 $3,557 $3,678 $3,784

Observations: Sequential and YoY improvements in total income and lower interest expense reflect better collections and lower average rates; net losses narrowed materially versus 2020, consistent with management commentary on recovery .

Annual performance (context for Q4 FY close)

MetricFY 2020FY 2021
Rental income ($USD thousands)$115,527 $118,957
Total income ($USD thousands)$115,689 $119,140
Net loss ($USD thousands)$(10,388) $(2,503)
Net loss per share ($)$(0.29) $(0.07)
Interest expense ($USD thousands)$25,349 $23,240
Property operating expense ($USD thousands)$19,416 $21,649
Real estate tax expense ($USD thousands)$14,505 $14,388

KPIs (Q4 2021 and program actions)

KPIValue
Estimated NAV per share (as of Dec 31, 2021)$20.20
Total estimated NAV ($USD millions)~$728.0
Occupancy (physical / economic)93.4% / 93.9% (Dec 31, 2021)
Properties / Square footage44 / 6,481,262 sq ft (Dec 31, 2021)
ABR per square foot (excl. ground leases)$17.79 (Dec 31, 2021)
ABR per square foot (incl. ground leases)$15.04 (Dec 31, 2021)
DRP purchase price$20.20 per share
SRP repurchase price$16.16 per share

Segment breakdown: INRE reports a single retail real estate segment .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
DRP share issuance priceOngoing until next NAV update$18.08 NAV reference (Mar 5, 2021) $20.20 NAV reference (effective with Q1 2022 distribution in April) Raised
SRP repurchase priceBeginning with repurchases after Mar 5, 202280% of “share price” (previously based on most recent NAV) $16.16 per share (80% of $20.20 “share price”) Raised
Quarterly cash distributionsQ4 2021 (paid in arrears)Suspended since Q2 2020 $0.135600 per share (Q2–Q4 2021) Reinstated
SRP status/fundingOngoingSuspended (effective Jun 26, 2020) Reinstated (Aug 12, 2021), funding tied to DRP proceeds Reinstated/Updated

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2021)Current Period (Q4 2021)Trend
Retail recovery / occupancyDeferred rent down from $4.457M (Dec 2020) to $1.650M (Jun 2021); collections improved; no known tenant bankruptcies; economic occupancy ~93.0% (Jun) → 94.6% (Sep) Record pace of recovery in 2021; physical/economic occupancy 93.4%/93.9% at year-end Improving
Non-grocery big box exposureCo-tenancy risks noted; tenant churn and covenant pressures; principal paydowns executed 36% of ABR from non-grocery big box, still viewed as structurally challenged Structural headwind
Liquidity & investor programs (DRP/SRP)DRP & SRP reinstated (Jul/Aug 2021); August SRP processed repurchases DRP price set at $20.20; SRP repurchase at $16.16; funding remains linked to DRP Operationalized
Strategic plan / listing optionalityStrategy focused on grocery-anchored, asset rotation, and redevelopment; liquidity event evaluated but timing uncertain Charter changes approved (Dec 2, 2021) to enhance flexibility; potential future listing considered Flexibility enhanced
Macro / e-commercePandemic impacts easing; bad debt recoveries recognized Continued e-commerce competition and inflation risks disclosed in FY2021 10-K Mixed (risk persists)

Management Commentary

  • “On average, capitalization rates for U.S. retail shopping center transactions in 2021 were lower than…2020, resulting in higher valuations… It remains to be seen whether these factors are a result of pent-up consumer demand or a sustainable trend.” .
  • “We are experiencing significant demand for small shop spaces at attractive rents… big box fundamentals remain challenged by shifting consumer preferences and internet competition.” .
  • “The Company… believes charter changes will provide… greater flexibility… including a potential listing on a national securities exchange.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q4 2021 earnings call transcript or Q&A materials were found for INRE; investor communications were delivered via the Form 8‑K NAV announcement and FAQs (Exhibit 99.1) .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus estimates (EPS, revenue, target price) are not available for INRE; there was no analyst coverage and S&P Global retrieval was unsuccessful. Note: S&P Global consensus unavailable for this issuer.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • NAV per share rose to $20.20 (+~11.7% YoY), backed by lower cap rates and improved market rents; the Board chose a value slightly below the CBRE midpoint to reflect risk and sector dynamics .
  • Core operations stabilized with high year-end occupancy (93.4%/93.9%) and improved collections; annual net loss narrowed materially in 2021 versus 2020 .
  • Distributions resumed ($0.1356 per quarter), DRP priced at NAV ($20.20), and SRP at 80% of NAV ($16.16), enhancing investor cash flow and providing limited liquidity .
  • Concentration in non-grocery big box (36% ABR) remains a structural exposure; expect continued leasing emphasis on small shop and necessity tenants .
  • Financing discipline remains important: covenant-driven paydowns underscore the need to monitor property-specific debt metrics amid a rising-rate backdrop .
  • A listing/liquidity event is still under evaluation with greater charter flexibility; timing remains contingent on market conditions and portfolio scaling/redevelopment progress .
  • Absent quarterly guidance or analyst estimates, investor focus should be on occupancy, leasing spreads, DRP/SRP activity, and debt maturities/covenants in 2022 .