Innventure, Inc. (INV)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 headline results missed consensus: revenue $0.53M vs $1.96M consensus and Primary EPS -$0.44 vs -$0.24 consensus; GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.51. Revenue rose +68% YoY and +12% QoQ as commercialization remains early-stage, with proof-of-concept sales at Accelsius driving results . Consensus figures marked with * are from S&P Global. *
• Accelsius momentum accelerated: opportunity pipeline >$1B, with ~75% in production opportunities for 2026; Q3 bookings exceeded all prior quarters combined, supported by the NeuCool MR250 multi‑rack launch and a $25M strategic investment from Johnson Controls .
• Cost discipline improved: G&A fell to $16.9M from $18.6M in Q2 and $19.7M in Q1; Adjusted EBITDA loss was -$17.5M (vs -$16.2M in Q2, -$21.8M in Q1) .
• Liquidity and capital structure: quarter-end cash and restricted cash totaled $14.1M; post-quarter financing included $5M of debentures (in November) and a $9.8M PIPE, following $10M debentures issued in September .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Accelsius commercial traction: “Our opportunity pipeline for Accelsius grew… now exceeding $1 billion… over 75%… represent production opportunities for 2026… Q3 order bookings surpassed all previous quarters combined.”
  • Product and ecosystem validation: NeuCool MR250 introduced (250 kW multi‑rack) and demonstrated up to 4,500W per GPU socket; expanded demo sites in Bay Area, Miami, Virginia, London; manufacturing footprint in Austin .
  • AeroFlexx continued revenue momentum (5th straight quarter), quality benchmarks (BRC perfect rating) and awards (CosmoPet Best Packaging, German Packaging Gold), broadening partner network in U.S. and EU .

• What Went Wrong

  • Large miss vs consensus: Q3 revenue $0.53M vs $1.96M est*, Primary EPS -$0.44 vs -$0.24 est*; GAAP diluted EPS -$0.51 as early-stage revenue conversion lagged expectations *.
  • Negative gross economics at this stage: cost of sales $4.15M on $0.53M revenue (gross profit approximately -$3.61M; gross margin about -677% based on reported lines) .
  • Losses continue despite OpEx progress: net loss -$34.7M; Adjusted EBITDA -$17.5M, modestly worse than Q2 (-$16.2M), reflecting ongoing scale-up investments ahead of revenue .

Financial Results

Headline performance and trend (amounts in $USD Millions unless noted)

• Notes:
  • YoY revenue growth: +68% (Q3’25 $0.53M vs Q3’24 $0.32M) .
  • QoQ revenue growth: +12% (Q3’25 vs Q2’25) .
  • Q3 gross profit approx. -$3.61M (computed: revenue $0.53M minus cost of sales $4.15M) and gross margin approx. -677% (computed) .
  • *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Operating expenses and profitability (quarterly)

Balance sheet and cash flow highlights

• Cash & equivalents $9.06M and restricted cash $5.00M (total $14.06M) at 9/30/25; total assets $556.5M; total liabilities $149.9M .
• Nine months 2025 operating cash outflow $(56.3)M; financing inflow $63.3M (equity, debentures, notes) .

KPIs and operating company highlights

Guidance Changes

• Management did not provide numerical guidance; reiterated confidence and unchanged outlook vs Q2 commentary without specifics .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• Strategy and model: “We’ve built a disciplined, data-driven model… a platform designed to turn technological breakthroughs into significant value for our shareholders.”
• Accelsius momentum: “Our opportunity pipeline… now exceeding $1 billion… over 75%… production opportunities for 2026… Q3 order bookings surpassed all previous quarters combined.”
• Strategic validation: “Johnson Controls’ $25 million strategic investment… validates the progress… and expands our resources.”
• Cost and capital: “G&A… $16.9M, an improvement from $18.6M in Q2 and $19.7M in Q1… issued $10M debentures in September and $5M in November… closed a $9.8M PIPE in October.”

Q&A Highlights

• Pipeline composition and breadth: Pipeline comprises several hundred leads; no single dominant customer; many opportunities in seven/eight‑figure range .
• Conversion trajectory: ~75% of pipeline (by dollar volume) now production orders, many as follow‑ons to earlier POCs; management maintained prior bookings/revenue projections (not quantified) .
• Strategic investment impact: JCI investment recognized by industry; expected to support commercial activity and rollouts over coming quarters .
• Supply chain readiness: Primarily N.A. suppliers, dual-sourced; partnering with contract manufacturers; no anticipated supply constraints .
• Order-to-revenue timing: Production-scale deployments can take a couple of quarters from order to delivery; revenue recognized typically upon shipment .
• Technology and TCO: Two‑phase direct-to‑chip outperforms single‑phase water; warmer water loops reduce energy costs (~4% energy savings per +1°C) .

Estimates Context

• Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $0.53M vs $1.96M est*; Primary EPS -$0.44 vs -$0.24 est*. GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.51 per 8‑K .
• Next quarter (Q4 2025) consensus: revenue $2.01M est*, Primary EPS -$0.36 est*. Given management’s commentary that revenue remains early-stage and production ramps are weighted to 2026, near-term revenue/EPS estimates may need reassessment toward the cadence of bookings-to-revenue conversion disclosed. *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Commercial momentum is real (pipeline >$1B; bookings inflecting), but revenue remains in early proof‑of‑concept phase, creating a timing gap that drove a significant miss vs consensus in Q3 *.
• 2026 looks pivotal: ~75% of pipeline tied to production deployments in 2026; investors should track conversion of late‑stage opportunities and incremental large‑order disclosures .
• Strategic validation (JCI $25M) and product breadth (NeuCool MR250; 250 kW) support Accelsius’ positioning in two‑phase direct‑to‑chip cooling amid AI workload growth .
• OpEx discipline is improving (G&A down Q/Q), but gross losses persist at current scale; watch for operating leverage as production deployments begin .
• Liquidity actions continue (debentures, PIPE); monitor cash burn vs funding runway and access to additional capital as operating companies scale .
• Near-term trading: Expect sensitivity to additional commercial wins, bookings disclosures, and any large production orders; medium term hinges on 2026 deployment execution and margin trajectory .

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Appendix: Q3 2025 Detail from 8‑K

• Revenue $0.534M; cost of sales $4.147M; G&A $16.927M; S&M $2.514M; R&D $6.151M; net loss $(34.735)M; basic/diluted EPS $(0.51); weighted avg shares 55.85M .
• Adjusted EBITDA $(17.464)M; reconciliation provided in 8‑K .
• Balance sheet: cash & equivalents $9.061M; restricted cash $5.000M; total assets $556.5M; total liabilities $149.9M; equity $406.6M .
• Cash flows (9M25): operating $(56.3)M; investing $(4.1)M; financing $63.3M; ending cash+restricted $14.06M .

S&P Global disclaimer: All values marked with * are from S&P Global consensus/actuals.