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Invitation Homes Inc. (INVH)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 was steady operationally: total revenues rose 4.3% YoY to $681.4M, Core FFO/share increased 1.7% YoY to $0.48, and AFFO/share rose 3.4% YoY to $0.41, while Same Store NOI grew 2.5% on 2.4% Core Revenues growth and 2.2% expense growth .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus: revenue modestly beat ($681.4M vs $677.6M*) but FFO/share (NAREIT) was below consensus ($0.45 actual vs $0.476*). Core FFO/share (company metric) printed $0.48; there is no S&P Core FFO consensus in our dataset . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Guidance unchanged: FY25 Core FFO/share midpoint $1.91, AFFO/share midpoint $1.61, Same Store NOI midpoint 2.0%; acquisition and disposition targets maintained .
  • Strategic/capital actions: 1,040 homes acquired ($350M) vs 358 dispositions ($141M); liquidity of ~$1.275B; net debt/TTM Adjusted EBITDAre 5.3x; S&P maintained BBB and raised outlook to Positive in April; developer lending program launched in June ($32.7–33M loan) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Revenue and portfolio earnings quality improved: total revenues +4.3% YoY; Same Store NOI +2.5% YoY; bad debt improved to 0.6% of GRR .
  • Renewal pricing remained solid: Same Store renewals +4.7% and blended +4.0% in Q2; July blended +3.8%, with ~80% renewal rate and 40-month average tenure underscoring resident stickiness .
    • “Our average resident tenure was forty months and our renewal rate approached 80%” — CEO Dallas Tanner .
  • Balance sheet strength and capital markets execution: ~$1.3B liquidity; 87.7% of debt fixed/swap-fixed; well-laddered maturities; S&P outlook to Positive; added $400M swaps in Q2 (total >$2B, ~3.08% strike) .

What Went Wrong

  • Occupancy softness and supply headwinds: Same Store average occupancy 97.2% (down 40 bps YoY), with management expecting mid‑96% later in the year amid seasonal turnover and BTR/scattered-site supply in select Sunbelt markets .
  • New lease pricing lagged renewals: Same Store new lease growth +2.2% vs renewals +4.7% (pressure in larger Sunbelt markets; absorption ongoing) .
  • Controllable expenses uptick and sequential NOI dip: Same Store controllable expenses +3.9% YoY; Same Store NOI margin was stable YoY but declined sequentially to 67.9% (from 69.2% in Q1) given peak-season OpEx and absorption timing .

Financial Results

P&L and Per-Share Metrics

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Revenues ($M)659.1 674.5 681.4
Net Income per Share — Diluted ($)0.23 0.27 0.23
FFO per Share — Diluted ($)0.36 0.45 0.45
Core FFO per Share — Diluted ($)0.47 0.48 0.48
AFFO per Share — Diluted ($)0.41 0.42 0.41

Same Store KPIs

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Same Store Avg Occupancy (%)96.7 97.2 97.2
Same Store NOI Growth YoY (%)4.7 3.7 2.5
Same Store Blended Rent Growth (%)2.3 3.6 4.0
Same Store Bad Debt (% of GRR)1.0 0.7 0.6
Avg Monthly Rent ($)2,419 2,431 2,445

Regional Rent Growth (Q2 2025, Same Store, lease-over-lease blended)

RegionBlended Rent Growth
Western U.S.3.9%
Florida3.6%
Southeast U.S.4.4%
Texas2.5%
Midwest U.S.8.1%
Total / Average4.0%

Portfolio Activity and Balance Sheet

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025
Acquisitions (homes / $M)631 / $213 1,040 / ~$350
Dispositions (homes / $M)470 / ~$179 358 / ~$141
Liquidity (Cash + Revolver, $M)1,364 1,275
Net Debt / TTM Adjusted EBITDAre (x)5.3x 5.3x
% Debt Fixed or Swapped87.5% 87.7%

Results vs S&P Global Consensus (Q2 2025)

ItemActualConsensus
Revenue ($M)681.4 677.6*
Primary EPS ($)0.23 0.1875*
FFO/Share (REIT) ($)0.45 0.4761*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Mid)Current Guidance (Mid)Change
Core FFO/share — dilutedFY 2025$1.91 $1.91 Maintained
AFFO/share — dilutedFY 2025$1.61 $1.61 Maintained
Same Store Core Revenues GrowthFY 20252.5% 2.5% Maintained
Same Store Core OpEx GrowthFY 20253.5% 3.5% Maintained
Same Store NOI GrowthFY 20252.0% 2.0% Maintained
Wholly Owned AcquisitionsFY 2025$600M $600M Maintained
JV AcquisitionsFY 2025$150M $150M Maintained
Wholly Owned DispositionsFY 2025$500M $500M Maintained

Assumptions include FY25 occupancy 96.2–96.8% and bad debt 60–90 bps; property taxes +5–6% YoY and insurance -2% to -3% YoY .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4’24 and Q1’25)Current Period (Q2’25)Trend
Occupancy & SeasonalityQ4’24 Same Store occupancy 96.7% with typical seasonal dip; Q1’25 97.2% slightly above plan July occupancy ~96.6%; expect mid‑96% as turnover/supply extend days-to-rerent Gradual normalization lower in H2
New Lease vs Renewal PricingQ4’24: New lease -2.2%, renewals +4.2% ; Q1’25: New lease -0.1%, renewals +5.2% Q2’25: New lease +2.2%, renewals +4.7%; July blended +3.8% as renewals drive strength Renewals resilient; new lease improving but uneven
Supply (BTR, scattered)Noted BTR deliveries pressuring select Sunbelt markets in late 2024; builder pipelines active Past the peak BTR deliveries; scattered-site rental supply adds near-term pressure in some markets Headwind moderating into 2026
Property Taxes & InsuranceFY25 guide contemplated +5–6% taxes; insurance down modestly Awaiting FL/GA tax prints; long-run tax growth seen normalizing to ~4–5% Watch for 2H updates
Capital Markets & SwapsDec’24: 91.3% fixed/swap-fixed; strong liquidity >$2B swaps, ~3.08% strike; 87.7% fixed/swap-fixed; no maturities before 2027 De-risked rate profile
External Growth & Dev Lending2,200 homes acquired in FY24; new JV formed (Nov’24) Q2 acquisitions ~1,040 homes; launched developer lending (Houston, 156 homes, ~$33M) Multi-channel sourcing expanding

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and demand backdrop: “Strong demographic tailwinds… disciplined investment approach… well positioned to drive long-term value.” — CEO Dallas Tanner .
  • Operating execution: “Blended rent growth was 4%… renewal rent growth remained strong… preventative maintenance and prompt response times helped contain costs.” — President Charles Young .
  • Outlook on supply and pricing: “We’re past the peak of [BTR] deliveries… absorption continues; expect improvement into 2026.” — President Charles Young .
  • Balance sheet positioning: “Net debt to TTM Adjusted EBITDA at 5.3x, slightly below our target range… over 83% unsecured and nearly 88% fixed/swapped.” — CFO John Olson .

Q&A Highlights

  • Occupancy/guidance cadence: Expect mid‑96% occupancy later in 2025 given seasonal turnover and modest supply in Central Florida/Texas; July landed ~96.6% .
  • New lease pricing trajectory: Pressure persists in larger Sunbelt markets but improving; renewals (~three-quarters of activity) remain resilient (~5% in July) .
  • Transactions and portfolio mix: Dispositions typically to end users (notably CA/FL) at low cap rates, recycling proceeds into higher‑cap new homes; acquisitions include builder month‑end tapes and stabilized BTR .
  • Developer lending scale: Early days; focused on BTR communities in operating markets with eventual ownership optionality .
  • Rates and housing turnover: Modest rate cuts and higher for-sale transaction volume would be a tailwind—improving marks and reducing rental competition from “for sale” spillover .
  • Swaps rationale: Using swaps to stabilize/know interest expense; expect the balance sheet to become more naturally fixed over time .
  • Property taxes: Long-run normalization toward ~4–5% annual growth anticipated; awaiting key 2H assessments (FL/GA) .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 delivered a modest top-line beat vs S&P consensus ($681.4M vs $677.6M*), a Primary EPS beat ($0.23 vs $0.1875*), and an FFO/share (NAREIT) miss ($0.45 vs $0.4761*). Core FFO/share (company’s preferred performance measure) was $0.48; no Core FFO consensus available in the dataset . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Given renewals’ strength and occupancy normalization into H2, estimate risk skews to lower new lease growth but solid Core FFO progression if taxes/insurance track guidance .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core operations remain resilient: renewals healthy, bad debt low, and NOI positive despite occupancy normalization and select market supply .
  • Guidance intact into 2H: reiteration reflects confidence amid seasonal/leasing dynamics; watch FL/GA tax prints for potential update next quarter .
  • Balanced capital allocation: accretive recycling (selling low-cap assets to fund ~6% cap buys) and new developer lending enhance pipeline/returns without over-levering .
  • Rate sensitivity cuts both ways: modest rate relief likely a net positive via stronger for-sale turnover and reduced rental competition from stuck inventory .
  • Near-term narrative: investors will focus on new lease rent growth stabilization, occupancy trajectory toward mid‑96s, and expense discipline (controllable costs, taxes) .
  • Medium term: demographic tailwinds and builder partnerships/developer lending support volume growth and operating efficiency gains across top markets .

Appendix: Other Q2 2025 Press Releases

  • Acquisitions update and developer lending launch (June 2, 2025): >300 new homes acquired QoQ-to-date; first ~$32.7M developer loan for a 156‑home Houston community with purchase option at stabilization .
  • Dividend: Q2 dividends declared $0.29 per share (per 8‑K financials) .

Notes:

  • All company figures GAAP or as-reported non-GAAP per exhibits/reconciliations.
  • Consensus figures marked with an asterisk (*) are Values retrieved from S&P Global.