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II

IonQ, Inc. (IONQ)·Q1 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue of $7.6M exceeded the high end of guidance ($6.5–$7.5M) and grew 77% year over year; GAAP EPS was $(0.19) and Adjusted EBITDA loss was $(27.0)M .
  • Bookings were minimal at $0.3M in Q1, but management raised FY24 bookings guidance to $75–$95M on stronger pipeline and improved visibility (backloaded to H2) .
  • FY24 revenue guidance was maintained at $37–$41M; Q2 revenue guide was set at $7.6–$9.2M; FY24 Adjusted EBITDA loss expectation reaffirmed at $110.5M .
  • Strategic catalysts: fully operational Seattle manufacturing facility building five Forte Enterprise systems (one sold to QuantumBasel), with European data center build-out in Basel underway and networking demand rising; pipeline expanding in deal size and volume across geographies and agencies .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Revenue beat and consistency: “We kicked the year off with strong revenue results, once again outperforming the high end of our guidance range” ($7.6M vs $6.5–$7.5M) .
  • Pipeline momentum and raised bookings outlook: “Our sales pipeline is expanding significantly in deal size and volume… allowing us to raise our full year bookings guidance” to $75–$95M .
  • Manufacturing and expansion execution: first Forte Enterprise system under construction in Seattle, with components being assembled for delivery to the Basel data center; broad hiring of experienced leadership (Chief Legal Officer, Head of Quantum Applications) to scale operations .

What Went Wrong

  • Soft quarterly bookings: Q1 bookings were $0.3M (company press release) versus $0.25M referenced on the call, highlighting lumpiness and timing risk on large deals .
  • Elevated operating costs: total operating costs and expenses rose to $60.5M (+87% YoY), with R&D at $32.4M (+99% YoY) and S&M at $6.7M (+151% YoY), widening net loss to $(39.6)M .
  • Heavy non-cash and stock-based comp burden impacting GAAP loss metrics: stock-based compensation was $22.1M, and a non-cash $8.6M warrant liability fair value gain affected GAAP results while being excluded from Adjusted EBITDA .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$6.136 $6.106 $7.582
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(44.811) $(41.904) $(39.592)
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)$(42.194) $(54.448) $(52.876)
GAAP EPS (Basic & Diluted)$(0.22) $(0.20) $(0.19)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(22.413) $(19.983) $(26.994)
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Investments ($USD Millions)$485.1 (as of 9/30/23) $455.9 (as of 12/31/23) $434.4 (as of 3/31/24)

Notes: Consensus estimates unavailable via S&P Global due to API limit; will update when available. Management stated Q1 revenue exceeded company guidance midpoint, supporting positive surprise vs internal outlook .

KPIs

KPIQ3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024
Bookings ($USD Millions)$26.3 $6.7 $0.3
Unearned Revenue – Current ($USD Millions)$5.216 $12.087 $16.742
Stock-Based Compensation ($USD Millions)$16.977 $31.194 $22.061

Segment breakdown: not applicable; IonQ does not report operating segments in the press release/8‑K .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2024$37–$41 $37–$41 Maintained
Revenue ($USD Millions)Q2 2024N/A$7.6–$9.2 New Q2 guide
Bookings ($USD Millions)FY 2024$70–$90 $75–$95 Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2024$(110.5) (loss) $(110.5) (loss) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2023 (Prior-2)Q4 2023 (Prior-1)Q1 2024 (Current)Trend
AI/technology initiativesUnveiled Forte Enterprise (#AQ 35) and Tempo (#AQ 64); AFRL networking sale; algorithmic efficiency progress Achieved #AQ 35 and #AQ 36; PIC and photonic interconnect milestones; AI/LLM opportunities discussed Pursuing applications in pharma, optimization, and quantum ML; “commercial advantage” focus with new Head of Applications Strengthening vision and execution toward near-term applications
Manufacturing & deliveryDatacenter form factor unveiled (rack-mounted); systems pipeline growing Seattle facility opened; footprint increased by 50%; production Forte Enterprise build started Seattle manufacturing fully operational; building five Forte Enterprise systems; Basel components assembly underway Capacity scaling and tangible builds continuing
Government demand & macro visibilityAFRL $25.5M systems; DARPA extension; bookings lumpy FY24 bookings guide $70–$90M with budget uncertainty Federal budget passed; identified ~$50M non-system federal opportunities; bookings backloaded Improved visibility; back-half-weighted closes
Networking & securityAFRL deal underscores networking push; quantum-safe concerns noted Photonic interconnect milestone to enable distributed QPU; quantum-safe market opportunity Networking interest strong; included in bookings guide Networking growing as complementary revenue driver
Commercial pipeline“Bigger and better than ever” pipeline Pipeline accelerating interest, especially Europe; two systems in Europe sold in 2023 “All-time high” pipeline across countries and agencies; building ahead of contracts Rising engagement and deal sizes

Management Commentary

  • “IonQ started 2024 by exceeding the high end of our revenue guidance range… We delivered $7.6 million” (CEO, Peter Chapman) .
  • “We are raising our bookings guidance for the year… booked $250,000 in the first quarter and our current pipeline is stronger than ever” (CEO, Peter Chapman) .
  • “Our over-performance was primarily due to our ability to make more progress than previously anticipated on some of our contracts that use percentage-of-completion revenue recognition” (CFO, Thomas Kramer) .
  • “We are currently planning to build five Forte Enterprise Systems… One of the five has already been sold to QuantumBasel” (CEO, Peter Chapman) .
  • “Photonic interconnect is… our method of being able to scale QPUs beyond #AQ 64… we’re on track to finish… this year” (VP R&D, Pat Tang) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Bookings confidence and guidance raise: Management probability-weights the funnel; federal budget passage improved confidence; guidance increased to $75–$95M with majority back-half closes .
  • Non-system federal opportunities: Identified ~$50M opportunities not related to system sales; included in bookings guide; may include hardware components and software .
  • Networking momentum: Quantum networking and communication demand rising and factored into bookings guidance .
  • Manufacturing efficiency: Moving toward more manufacturable systems, subassemblies, and a dedicated assembly workforce to reduce time and cost; building five Forte systems now .
  • Applications focus: Priority areas include quantum ML, pharmaceuticals/chemistry simulation, optimization, and speculative “strong AI” exploration .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) could not be retrieved due to an API daily limit during this session; as a result, quantified comparisons vs Street estimates are unavailable at this time. Management reported a beat vs company guidance on revenue ($7.6M vs $6.5–$7.5M) and maintained FY24 revenue guidance, while raising FY24 bookings guidance on pipeline strength .
  • If/when accessible, consensus EPS and revenue comparisons will be anchored to S&P Global data and annotated accordingly .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue resilience: Q1 revenue beat the high end of guidance and rose 77% YoY, indicating solid execution on percentage-of-completion contracts despite lumpy bookings .
  • Bookings trajectory: FY24 bookings guidance raised to $75–$95M, with federal non-system opportunities (~$50M probability-weighted) and networking demand supporting back-half closings; near-term quarterly bookings can remain volatile .
  • Capacity and delivery: Seattle facility is fully operational; five Forte Enterprise systems are being built, and Basel data center readiness progresses, providing tangible system-delivery milestones and potential revenue recognition vectors .
  • Cost investment: Elevated R&D and S&M to scale systems and commercialization lifted OpEx; net loss widened; Adjusted EBITDA loss for FY24 is expected at $(110.5)M, consistent with aggressive build-out and application development .
  • Strategic positioning: Advancing PICs, photonic interconnects, and #AQ roadmap with application focus (pharma, ML, optimization) suggests a clearer path toward commercial advantage over the next 2–3 years .
  • Government and Europe: Budget clarity and European system deployments (QuantumBasel) enhance demand visibility and credibility for system sales and networking/communication initiatives .
  • Trading implications: Near-term stock moves likely tied to bookings announcements/system deliveries (Forte Enterprise), Q2 revenue print vs guide ($7.6–$9.2M), and progress/milestones in networking and PICs; watch for back-half federal awards and European deployments as catalysts .