Executive Summary

Q1 2025 was the strongest quarter since 2016 on volumes: Sales were $97.8M, net income $4.6M ($0.35 diluted EPS), and adjusted EBITDA $16.6M; Trio® drove margin strength with $10.4M segment gross margin while potash COGS per ton improved materially .
Versus Wall Street consensus (S&P Global): EPS beat (consensus -$0.052 vs actual $0.39), EBITDA beat (consensus $13.26M vs actual $17.68M), while revenue (ex freight/warehousing) missed (consensus $82.43M vs actual $76.78M)*. Trio pricing and volumes offset lower potash pricing.
Guidance: Q2 pricing guided higher for potash ($350–$360/ton) and Trio ($365–$375/ton), with seasonally lower volumes; FY25 capex maintained at $36–$42M; potash production guided ~285–295k tons, Trio 235–245k tons .
Liquidity/catalysts: Cash $66M and no revolver borrowings as of May 2, positioning IPI to benefit from balanced potash markets and firm nutrient pricing; management points to constructive macro and potential future capital allocation discussions as performance and cash generation persist .

Note: Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Record volumes and Trio pricing: “Combined total sales volumes of 213 thousand tons [were] our highest quarterly sales volume since the first quarter of 2016,” with Trio avg net realized price up to $345/ton and gross margin of $10.4M .
Cost/COGS execution: Potash COGS per ton improved to $313 (down ~10% YoY) and Trio COGS per ton fell to $235 (down 22% YoY), reflecting production and efficiency gains .
Macro tailwinds and pricing: Management highlighted increases of $55/ton for potash and $40/ton for Trio during Q1 and constructive demand/supply balance; “we expect to realize a good portion of these increases in our second quarter results” .

What Went Wrong

Potash gross margin pressure YoY from price: Segment gross margin decreased $3.1M YoY primarily due to lower average net realized price ($312 vs $395/ton), despite higher volumes and improved COGS per ton .
Oilfield Solutions softness: Segment sales fell $0.9M YoY and gross margin decreased $0.3M on reduced water sales and lower surface/easement revenue timing .
Inventory valuation impacts: Company recorded $1.335M lower of cost or net realizable value inventory adjustments in Q1 2025, modestly weighing on consolidated gross margin .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance vs prior quarters

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Sales ($USD Millions)	$57.549	$55.803	$97.760
Gross Margin ($USD Millions)	$7.732	$7.292	$14.602
Operating Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)	$(2.223)	$(11.701)	$4.998
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)	$(1.833)	$(207.049)	$4.606
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($USD)	$(0.14)	$(16.04)	$0.35
Adjusted EPS ($USD)	$(0.02)	$(0.11)	$0.39
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$9.956	$8.568	$16.608

Segment Performance – Q1 2025

Metric	Potash	Trio®	Oilfield Solutions
Sales ($USD Millions)	$43.577	$49.842	$4.400
Gross Margin ($USD Millions)	$2.503	$10.434	$1.665
Sales Volume (k tons)	103	110	—
Production Volume (k tons)	93	63	—
Avg Net Realized Price ($/ton)	$312	$345	—
COGS per ton ($/ton)	$313	$235	—

KPIs and Operating Drivers

KPI	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions, quarter-end)	$41.309	$45.668
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions, May 2 snapshot)	—	$66
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)	$7.559	$10.917
Capex ($USD Millions, quarter)	$6.123	$8.272
Potash Sales Volume (k tons)	57	103
Trio Sales Volume (k tons)	54	110
Potash Avg Net Realized Price ($/ton)	$347	$312
Trio Avg Net Realized Price ($/ton)	$330	$345

Estimates Comparison – Q1 2025 (S&P Global)

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Surprise
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)	-$0.052*	$0.39*	Beat*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions, net of freight/warehousing)	$82.43*	$76.78*	Miss*
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)	$13.26*	$17.68*	Beat*
# of EPS Estimates	2*	—	—
# of Revenue Estimates	1*	—	—

Note: Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Potash avg net realized price ($/ton)	Q2 2025	$305–$315 (Q1 guide context)	$350–$360	Raised
Potash sales volumes (k tons)	Q2 2025	95–105 (Q1 guide context)	60–70	Lowered (seasonal)
Trio avg net realized price ($/ton)	Q2 2025	$340–$350 (Q1 guide context)	$365–$375	Raised
Trio sales volumes (k tons)	Q2 2025	100–110 (Q1 guide context)	57–67	Lowered (seasonal)
FY25 Capex ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$36–$42	$36–$42	Maintained
FY25 Potash production (k tons)	FY 2025	~285–295	285–295	Maintained
FY25 Trio production (k tons)	FY 2025	235–245	235–245	Maintained

Management also expects to complete the HB AMAX cavern sample well permitting in Q2 and commission by end of July, ~$4.5M capital for the well .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q3 2024 (Prior-2)	Q4 2024 (Prior-1)	Q1 2025 (Current)	Trend
Potash pricing & market balance	Pricing lower YoY but volumes and margins improved; pipeline Phase Two commissioned	Prices firming; winter fill uptake; expect realization in Q2	+$55/ton for potash in Q1; constructive global balance; expect Q2 realization	Improving
Trio pricing/demand	Trio avg price +5% YoY; gross margin turned positive; cost down	Trio pricing higher; cost improvements sustained	Trio avg price $345; 110k tons record; COGS/ton $235	Strong
Production/COGS trajectory	Potash production inflecting higher; Trio efficiencies	Potash production +30% YoY; unit cost step-down; Wendover pond expected to help in 2H25	Potash COGS/ton $313; Trio COGS/ton $235; consistent improvements	Improving
Tariffs/macro	—	Canadian tariffs discussed; impact uncertain	Tariff commentary; Canadian imports currently exempt; supportive ag exports	Monitoring but supportive
Capital allocation	—	Priority to establish durable FCF before returns; XTO second $50M could catalyze	Board increasingly focused as performance improves; net cash balance building	Optionality increasing
Oilfield Solutions & XTO	Q3: record oilfield sales on large frac	Q4: steady but timing variability; $45M XTO received Q1 2024	Q1: steady; less frac expected in 2025; no visibility on Exxon near-term plans	Steady, variable timing
HB AMAX cavern project	Permitting initiated	Drill test well planned 1H 2025	Permitting expected Q2; commission in July	On track

Management Commentary

“Supported by strong demand and improving agricultural commodity prices, fertilizer prices continued to strengthen during the quarter… Midwest warehouse prices increasing by $55/ton for potash and our posted price for Trio® increasing $40/ton” .
“Our first quarter was highlighted by solid performance in potash and Trio®, with… highest quarterly sales volume since the first quarter of 2016… Trio® was again the standout performer” .
CEO on macro: “Third parties have estimated mine maintenance in Eastern Europe and… domestic potash consumption in Russia [has] roughly removed ~1.8 million tons from the market… the world market is returning to trend line growth of roughly 2% per year” .
CFO on Q2 guide: “Potash… 60–70k tons at $350–$360/ton; Trio… 57–67k tons at $365–$375/ton… CapEx $36–$42M, mostly sustaining” .
Liquidity: “As of May 2, 2025, our cash and cash equivalents totaled $66 million and we had no outstanding borrowings on our $150 million revolving credit facility” .

Q&A Highlights

Pricing realization and timing: Management expects to “realize almost all” of the $55/ton potash price increase into Q2 versus Q1 contract timing .
Production outlook: Potash FY25 production guided roughly flat YoY (285–295k tons); Wendover primary pond expected to support further unit cost improvements in 2H25 .
Trio cost trajectory: After achieving $235/ton COGS, management anticipates a modest 5–10% uptick in 2H25 on lower production and general cost inflation, with a steady-state production of 235–245k tons .
Cash seasonality/FCF: Q2 typically strongest cash-generation quarter; cash was ~$66M at start of May, expected to pull down modestly as capex proceeds in 2H .
Oilfield visibility: No incremental visibility on Exxon/XTO near-term drilling; oilfield activity resilient near South Ranch, but segment remains timing-sensitive .

Estimates Context

EPS beat likely drives upward revisions to near-term profitability assumptions; adjusted EBITDA outperformance vs consensus also supports estimate increases for FY25 margins.*
Revenue miss (on an S&P “net revenue” basis excluding freight/warehousing) is a function of IPI’s reporting (company “Sales” includes freight/warehousing).^ Adjusted EBITDA and segment gross margins suggest underlying operating strength despite the revenue line variance.*

Note: Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.
^ Company “Sales” include freight and warehousing; S&P “Revenue” commonly excludes these costs .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Trio remains the margin engine: higher pricing and structurally lower COGS per ton ($235) underpin earnings power even if potash pricing is volatile .
Potash unit economics have materially improved (COGS/ton $313), positioning IPI to capture price strength as Q2 realizations roll through .
Q2 guide indicates seasonal volume normalization but notable price uplift in both potash and Trio; focus on realized pricing versus benchmarks through spring/summer .
Balance sheet optionality: net cash, no revolver draw, and constructive macro could put capital return discussions on the table as consistency in free cash flow is demonstrated .
Watch HB AMAX commissioning (July) and Wendover pond contributions in 2H25 for the next leg of unit cost improvements and potential volume support .
Oilfield Solutions steady but timing-sensitive; segment provides diversification with high-margin brine/surface use albeit quarterly variability .
Near-term trading: EPS/EBITDA beats vs consensus and Q2 price guidance are positive catalysts; monitor macro tariff headlines and crop futures as sentiment inputs .

Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary