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Ideal Power Inc. (IPWR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 was operationally pivotal: first SSCB design win accelerated ahead of schedule, SymCool IQ orders, and Stellantis engagement expanded to a planned B-TRAN-enabled EV contactor program; financials remained pre-revenue with Q4 commercial revenue of $5,408 and net loss of $2.6M as devices were prioritized for automotive qualification testing .
  • Management guided to modest Q1 2025 commercial revenue and a revenue ramp starting in 2H 2025; Q1 2025 cash burn ~$2.2–$2.4M and FY 2025 cash burn “over $10M,” versus FY 2024 cash burn of $9.2M (ex-warrant proceeds) .
  • Cash and equivalents were $15.8M with no long-term debt at 12/31/24; patents reached 94 issued and 53 pending, supporting IP defensibility as automotive qualification testing showed no die failures to date .
  • Near-term stock catalysts: additional SSCB design wins, completion of accelerated SSCB prototype deliveries (late March/early April), formalization of Stellantis EV contactor program, and progress in third-party auto qualification; medium-term catalyst is execution of the 2H 2025 sales ramp .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We’re thrilled with our first design win…a catalyst for our anticipated revenue ramp starting in the second half of 2025,” and program milestones moved ahead of schedule with prototypes now expected late March/early April vs prior late Q2 target .
  • Secured a multi-unit SymCool IQ module order opening a ~$1.4B energy and power SAM including renewable energy, storage, EV charging, and data centers .
  • Stellantis: comprehensive Detroit program review confirmed B-TRAN as lowest loss option vs IGBT/SiC, with Stellantis intending to award an additional EV contactor program alongside inverter work; multiple Tier 1s expected to compete on implementation .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue stayed minimal in Q4 ($5,408) as devices were prioritized for automotive qualification; gross profit remained negative and operating expenses rose on R&D .
  • Net loss widened year over year in Q4 ($2.6M vs $2.4M), with operating expenses $2.8M vs $2.5M driven by R&D and sales & marketing .
  • Automotive program timelines slowed during 2024 as Stellantis reset priorities amid industry challenges, though engagement has re-accelerated; revenue ramp pushed to 2H 2025 .

Financial Results

Quarterly Progression (P&L and Cash)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Commercial Revenue ($USD)$1,331 $554 $5,408
Total Revenue ($USD)$1,331 $554 $5,408
Gross Profit ($USD)$(16,143) $(957) $(518)
Operating Expenses ($USD)$2,869,870 $2,898,674 $2,758,062
Loss from Operations ($USD)$(2,886,013) $(2,899,631) $(2,758,580)
Interest Income, net ($USD)$223,948 $209,283 $162,806
Net Loss ($USD)$(2,662,065) $(2,690,348) $(2,595,774)
Net Loss per Share ($)$(0.31) $(0.31) $(0.29)
Cash Used in Op + Inv ($USD)$2.2M $2.4M $2.6M
Cash & Equivalents ($USD)$20.1M $18.7M $15.8M

Year-over-Year (Q4 vs Q4)

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Commercial Revenue ($USD)$61,483 $5,408
Total Revenue ($USD)$61,483 $5,408
Operating Expenses ($USD)$2,499,952 $2,758,062
Net Loss ($USD)$(2,405,748) $(2,595,774)
Net Loss per Share ($)$(0.39) $(0.29)
Cash Used in Op + Inv ($USD)$2.1M $2.6M

KPIs and Operational Metrics

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
B-TRAN Patents (Issued / Pending)87 / 45 90 / 50 94 / 53
Auto Qualification StatusInitiation planned; prep runs Initiated; no failures to date Ongoing; no die failures to date
DistributionAdded RYOSHO Added RYOSHO & Sekorm Active; orders and quotes continuing
SymCool Current Rating200A after +25% increase 200A maintained 200A maintained

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash Burn ($USD)Q4 2024$2.6–$2.8M $2.6M actual (low end) Met low end
Cash Burn ($USD)Q1 2025—~$2.2–$2.4M New guidance
Cash Burn ($USD)FY 2025—Over $10M (incl. hiring impact) New guidance
Revenue Trajectory2H 2025Ramp expected 2H 2025 Ramp expected 2H 2025; modest Q1 revenue Maintained
Capital Structure (Warrants)Through Aug 2025—$3M potential proceeds if exercised New disclosure

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Automotive: Stellantis programCompleted Phase II; Tier 1 down-select in process Phase III expected post Tier 1 selection; weekly engagement Detroit review confirms lowest loss; intent for EV contactor program; continued inverter work Accelerating
EV ContactorsThird OEM evaluating; contactor as first use-case Tier 1 orders; EV contactor interest rising Stellantis adding EV contactor program; ~$200–$300 content/vehicle, 5–8 contactors per EV Expanding
Industrial SSCBsReference design, initial orders; SymCool 200A upgrade Distributors quoting SSCB; initial orders continue First SSCB design win; prototypes pulled forward to Mar/Apr Positive inflection
DistributorsAdded RYOSHO (Asia strength) Added RYOSHO & Sekorm; demand-creation focus Active funnel; introductions to large customers; Europe distributor discussed Building
Supply Chain & FabsQualified second fab; dual-sourced; no China/Taiwan exposure Dual sourcing; yields improving; next-gen die cost-down Ongoing; more die per wafer planned; cost reductions continue Improving
Macro/PolicyGlobal EV/renewables adoption; resilient demand Election concerns overblown; global momentum intact Demand steady despite U.S. policy shifts; global focus on efficiency Stable
R&D Execution & Cost DownsSymCool 200A; next-gen die to double dies/wafer Smaller packaging; better parallel current sharing Higher current ratings planned without added cost; target 50% gross margins at scale On track

Management Commentary

  • “Our first design win represents significant validation of B-TRAN as an enabling technology for solid-state circuit breakers and a catalyst for our anticipated revenue ramp in the second half of 2025.” – Dan Brdar, CEO .
  • “Prototypes now expected to be completed, tested and shipped…in late March or early April,” pulling forward timelines vs prior late Q2 expectation .
  • “Stellantis informed us that they intend to award us an additional program for B-TRAN-enabled EV contactors…while also proceeding with the current inverter program.” .
  • “Third-party automotive qualification and reliability testing…results are positive with 0 die failures to date.” .
  • “Cash burn expected to decrease to ~$2.2–$2.4M in Q1 2025…full-year 2025 cash burn over $10M, primarily due to hiring.” – Tim Burns, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • SSCB design-win revenue timing: several hundred thousand dollars in first 12 months from product launch, not calendar 2H 2025-specific; revenue potential >$1M in year two .
  • Pipeline depth: “Over a half dozen very large companies” in active evaluation for SSCB; industrial design cycles ~12 months vs automotive multi-year .
  • Stellantis EV contactors: scope and cost discussion in March; funded program with 2025 funding expected .
  • EV contactor content: typically 5–8 contactors per EV; ~$200–$300 IPWR content per vehicle potential .
  • Headcount strategy: 16 employees now, likely ~20 by YE 2025; sales team to expand to support engagement growth .
  • Auto qualification: standards allow some failures; package-related failures more typical; qualification still achievable even with limited failures .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) EPS/Revenue estimates were unavailable at time of analysis due to SPGI retrieval constraints; IPWR’s micro-cap status suggests limited formal coverage. As a result, explicit beat/miss vs consensus cannot be determined for Q4 2024. Where indicated, management expects modest Q1 2025 revenue and a revenue ramp in 2H 2025, which may drive upward revisions once design wins convert to production orders .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution milestone: first SSCB design win and accelerated prototype timeline materially increase probability of 2H 2025 revenue ramp; monitor March/April delivery and potential additional SSCB design wins .
  • Automotive optionality: Stellantis intends to add EV contactor program alongside inverter; content per vehicle and multi-model platform leverage can scale revenue when programs mature .
  • Capital and burn: ~$15.8M cash, no debt; Q1 burn guidance ~$2.2–$2.4M and FY 2025 over $10M imply sufficient runway for milestones; $3M potential warrant proceeds by August add flexibility .
  • Sales funnel expanding via distributors and Tier 1 engagements; near-term orders small by design; watch for conversion to custom development agreements/design wins through 2025 .
  • IP defensibility and reliability: 94 issued/53 pending patents; third-party auto qualification underway with no die failures; supports industrial adoption and accelerates OEM comfort .
  • Trading setup: catalysts include formal Stellantis EV contactor award, SSCB prototype completion, additional SSCB wins, and auto qualification progress; any slip in ramp timing or higher-than-guided burn could pressure sentiment .
  • Medium-term thesis: B-TRAN’s ultra-low conduction losses and inherent bidirectionality enable SSCBs and EV contactors where incumbent semis struggle; asset-light model and dual-sourced fabs support scale and cost-downs; margin target 50% at scale in industrial before automotive mix downshift .