IR
Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Record Q1 orders ($1.882B, +10%) and free cash flow ($223M, +124%), with revenue at $1.717B (+3%) and adjusted EBITDA $460M (26.8% margin, down 70 bps YoY) .
- Results were slightly below Street: EPS $0.72 vs $0.737*, revenue $1.717B vs $1.725B*, EBITDA $459.7M vs $473.0M*; management cited ~$15M revenue deferral to Q2 and ongoing growth investments . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Full-year 2025 guidance reduced: Adjusted EBITDA to $2.070–$2.130B (from $2.130–$2.190B) and Adjusted EPS to $3.28–$3.40 (from $3.38–$3.50), with organic growth now (-1%)–1% (was 1%–3%) .
- Board added $1B to buyback authorization (targeting up to $750M repurchases in 2025), reinforcing capital returns as a near-term catalyst . Management stresses in‑region for‑region footprint and tariff mitigation via pricing and a “tariff war room” .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record orders and FCF; book-to-bill 1.10x; liquidity $4.2B (cash ~$1.6B + $2.6B revolver availability). “Record first quarter free cash flow are encouraging signs as we start off the year” — CEO Vicente Reynal .
- Aftermarket revenue mix rose to 38% of total (+110 bps YoY), underpinning resilience and margin quality .
- PST segment delivered strong reported growth (orders +28%, revenue +23%) and improved adjusted EBITDA sequentially (29.1% margin, +150 bps vs Q4’24) .
- Capital deployment: $163M to M&A in Q1 and a fresh $1B buyback authorization; two bolt-ons (G&D Chillers, AGT) added capabilities in air treatment .
What Went Wrong
- ITS organic revenue declined 4% and adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 110 bps YoY (28.8%) due to volume deleverage, dilutive recent acquisitions, and growth investments .
- Company adjusted EBITDA margin fell 70 bps YoY (26.8% vs 27.5%), and adjusted EPS declined to $0.72 (from $0.78) YoY on cost and investment pressures .
- Guidance trimmed as management prudently inserted organic volume contingency despite order strength; tariff pricing actions offset costs at “zero margin,” muting EBITDA flow-through .
Financial Results
Consolidated – Actuals vs Prior Year, Prior Quarter, and Consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key notes:
- Approximately $15M of revenue expected in Q1 was deferred into Q2 at customer request .
- Adjusted tax rate in Q1 was ~22.6% .
Segment Breakdown
Segment commentary: ITS book-to-bill 1.10x; organic orders +3.5%; margin down YoY on volume deleverage and acquisition mix; PST book-to-bill 1.08x; strong reported growth via M&A; sequential margin +150 bps vs Q4’24 .
KPIs and Cash
Guidance Changes
Management rationale: “Prudent” to hold total revenue guide while inserting volume contingency; tariff pricing (~$150M) offsets costs one-for-one at 0% flow-through, diluting margins; estimates now embed more second-half organic improvement and pricing .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our positive organic orders growth, solid book-to-bill, and record first quarter free cash flow are encouraging signs as we start off the year.” — CEO Vicente Reynal .
- “We continue to focus on controlling what we can control, staying agile and leveraging IRX to offset all known tariff impacts.” — CEO .
- “Approximately $15 million in revenue initially anticipated to be recognized within the first quarter has been deferred to the second quarter due in large part to customer requests.” — CFO Vik Kini .
- “We are taking pricing actions that are one-for-one offsetting the tariff costs… at 0 flow-through, [which is] dilutive to the overall.” — CFO .
- “As part of our balanced capital allocation strategy, our Board has authorized an additional $1 billion of share repurchases… targeting up to $750 million… by the end of 2025.” — Company release .
Q&A Highlights
- Guidance bridge: Management held total revenue flat but inserted a ~4% organic volume contingency to prudently de-risk amid dynamic macro; tariff pricing (+~2%) and FX/M&A (+~2%) positives were offset by that contingency .
- Tariffs: ~$150M exposure predominantly China imports and secondary effects; two-step pricing (April list price; May surcharges) offsets costs one-for-one; supply chain relocation actions underway but in-year impact limited .
- Margin cadence: Company-level margins flattish for FY25 given zero-flow-through tariff offsets; PST margins expected to sequentially improve back toward ~30% through 2025; ITS margins down YoY on deleverage and acquisition mix .
- Seasonality & Q2 framing: H1 ~46% of EPS/EBITDA; Q2 around $505M EBITDA and ~$0.80 EPS “ballpark,” consistent phasing vs prior years .
- Demand signals: Aftermarket up 6%; equipment softness implied but not recessionary in management’s view; orders balanced across short- and long-cycle; April orders in line .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025: EPS $0.72 vs $0.737*; Revenue $1,716.8M vs $1,725.4M*; EBITDA $459.7M vs $472.97M* — modest misses driven by revenue deferral, investment spending, and tariff dynamics with zero-margin price offsets . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Street likely to revise FY25 EPS/EBITDA lower and recalibrate organic volume assumptions following the guide cut, while incorporating tariff price-cost neutrality and higher M&A revenue (~$330M) .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Orders and FCF strength support durability, but near-term EPS/EBITDA are pressured by tariff price-cost neutrality and prudence on organic volumes — expect margin improvement skewed to H2 as PST recovers and pricing actions annualize .
- The guide reset reduces execution risk; watch April/May order conversion and H2 organic trajectory, especially in PST life sciences and ITS recurring revenue mix .
- Share repurchase authorization (+$1B) and targeted up to $750M buybacks in 2025 are supportive to per-share metrics and a potential stock support/catalyst in choppy macro .
- M&A remains a core growth lever with disciplined multiples (~9x pre-synergy in recent deals); inorganic revenue raised to ~$330M in 2025, expect continued bolt-ons in air treatment and life sciences .
- China remains cautious but stabilizing; in-region for-region footprint provides a competitive moat under tariff regimes; watch APAC ex-China for share gains .
- ITS margin compression reflects volume deleverage and mix; recurring revenue and IRX productivity initiatives should aid margin trajectory as volumes stabilize .
- Dividend maintained ($0.02 per share payable June 5, 2025), but buybacks dominate capital returns this year .
Appendix: Additional Items
- Dividend: Regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.02 per share, payable June 5, 2025 (record date May 15, 2025) .
- Q1 balance sheet: Cash $1.613B, total liquidity ~$4.2B; net leverage 1.6x LTM adjusted EBITDA .
- Recent bolt-ons: G&D Chillers and Advanced Gas Technologies added to IT&S, expanding air treatment capabilities; combined purchase price ~$27M .
Please note: All consensus estimate values marked with an asterisk (*) are values retrieved from S&P Global.