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IR

Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q1 orders ($1.882B, +10%) and free cash flow ($223M, +124%), with revenue at $1.717B (+3%) and adjusted EBITDA $460M (26.8% margin, down 70 bps YoY) .
  • Results were slightly below Street: EPS $0.72 vs $0.737*, revenue $1.717B vs $1.725B*, EBITDA $459.7M vs $473.0M*; management cited ~$15M revenue deferral to Q2 and ongoing growth investments . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Full-year 2025 guidance reduced: Adjusted EBITDA to $2.070–$2.130B (from $2.130–$2.190B) and Adjusted EPS to $3.28–$3.40 (from $3.38–$3.50), with organic growth now (-1%)–1% (was 1%–3%) .
  • Board added $1B to buyback authorization (targeting up to $750M repurchases in 2025), reinforcing capital returns as a near-term catalyst . Management stresses in‑region for‑region footprint and tariff mitigation via pricing and a “tariff war room” .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record orders and FCF; book-to-bill 1.10x; liquidity $4.2B (cash ~$1.6B + $2.6B revolver availability). “Record first quarter free cash flow are encouraging signs as we start off the year” — CEO Vicente Reynal .
  • Aftermarket revenue mix rose to 38% of total (+110 bps YoY), underpinning resilience and margin quality .
  • PST segment delivered strong reported growth (orders +28%, revenue +23%) and improved adjusted EBITDA sequentially (29.1% margin, +150 bps vs Q4’24) .
  • Capital deployment: $163M to M&A in Q1 and a fresh $1B buyback authorization; two bolt-ons (G&D Chillers, AGT) added capabilities in air treatment .

What Went Wrong

  • ITS organic revenue declined 4% and adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 110 bps YoY (28.8%) due to volume deleverage, dilutive recent acquisitions, and growth investments .
  • Company adjusted EBITDA margin fell 70 bps YoY (26.8% vs 27.5%), and adjusted EPS declined to $0.72 (from $0.78) YoY on cost and investment pressures .
  • Guidance trimmed as management prudently inserted organic volume contingency despite order strength; tariff pricing actions offset costs at “zero margin,” muting EBITDA flow-through .

Financial Results

Consolidated – Actuals vs Prior Year, Prior Quarter, and Consensus

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025 ActualQ1 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)1,670.1 1,898.6 1,716.8 1,725.4*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)458.5 532.3 459.7 472.97*
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)27.5% 28.0% 26.8%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)0.50 0.57 0.46
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)0.78 0.84 0.72 0.737*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key notes:

  • Approximately $15M of revenue expected in Q1 was deferred into Q2 at customer request .
  • Adjusted tax rate in Q1 was ~22.6% .

Segment Breakdown

SegmentQ1 2024 Revenue ($M)Q4 2024 Revenue ($M)Q1 2025 Revenue ($M)Q1 2024 Adj. EBITDA ($M)Q4 2024 Adj. EBITDA ($M)Q1 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($M)
Industrial Technologies & Services (ITS)1,373.4 1,511.0 1,352.1 411.1 457.6 389.1
Precision & Science Technologies (PST)296.7 387.6 364.7 91.4 106.8 106.2
Total1,670.1 1,898.6 1,716.8 502.5 564.4 495.3

Segment commentary: ITS book-to-bill 1.10x; organic orders +3.5%; margin down YoY on volume deleverage and acquisition mix; PST book-to-bill 1.08x; strong reported growth via M&A; sequential margin +150 bps vs Q4’24 .

KPIs and Cash

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025
Orders ($USD Millions)1,800.0 1,882.3
Book-to-Bill (x)0.95 1.10
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)490.9 222.7
Free Cash Flow Margin (%)25.9% 13.0%
Liquidity ($USD Billions)4.1 4.2
Aftermarket as % of Revenue38% (+110 bps YoY)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (2/13/25)Current Guidance (5/1/25)Change
Total Revenue GrowthFY 20253–5% 3–5% Maintained
Organic Growth (Total IR)FY 20251–3% (-1%)–1% Lowered
ITS Organic GrowthFY 20251–3% (-1%)–1% Lowered
PST Organic GrowthFY 20251–3% (-1%)–1% Lowered
FX ImpactFY 2025~(-2%) ~(-0.5%) Improved tailwind
M&A RevenueFY 2025~$300M ~$330M Raised
Corporate CostsFY 2025~($165M) ~($165M) Maintained
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$2,130–$2,190M $2,070–$2,130M Lowered
Adjusted EPSFY 2025$3.38–$3.50 $3.28–$3.40 Lowered
Adjusted Tax RateFY 2025~23% ~23% Maintained
Net Interest ExpenseFY 2025~$220M ~$220M Maintained
CapExFY 2025~2% of revenue ~2% of revenue Maintained
Share RepurchasesFY 2025Target up to $750M; +$1B authorization New

Management rationale: “Prudent” to hold total revenue guide while inserting volume contingency; tariff pricing (~$150M) offsets costs one-for-one at 0% flow-through, diluting margins; estimates now embed more second-half organic improvement and pricing .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Prev)Q4 2024 (Prev)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
Tariffs/MitigationNot a focusMonitoring exposure; in-region benefits ~$150M tariff exposure; list prices + surcharges; “tariff war room” to drive supply chain moves Rising impact; proactive mitigation
In‑region for‑region footprintHighlighted as differentiator Reiterated strategy Emphasized as competitive edge amid tariffs; local manufacturing valued by customers Reinforced
Demand generation (MQL) & long-cycleMQLs strong; decision elongation MQL up low double-digits; pipeline strong MQLs up double-digits; April orders stable; longer-cycle projects progressing Stable to positive
China & APACOrders strong ex-China; PST organic up 3% China softness; stability emerging; APAC ex-China solid Encouraging signs; APAC organic orders growth; China still down for year; local-for-local positioning Gradual stabilization; cautious
Recurring revenue & aftermarketFree cash flow focus Growing recurring revenue noted Aftermarket 38% (+110 bps); recurring revenue up double-digits in ITS Improving mix
PST & ILC DoverPST reported strength via M&A PST margin under pressure; ILC A&D volume headwinds; life sciences double-digit growth PST margin 29.1%; sequential improvement; life sciences momentum; minimal tariff exposure Sequential improvement; back-half uplift expected
Capital allocation & M&AMultiple bolt-ons; discipline 18 acquisitions in 2024; continued bolt-on focus $163M Q1 M&A; 9 deals under LOI; buyback optionality increased Active pipeline; returns focus

Management Commentary

  • “Our positive organic orders growth, solid book-to-bill, and record first quarter free cash flow are encouraging signs as we start off the year.” — CEO Vicente Reynal .
  • “We continue to focus on controlling what we can control, staying agile and leveraging IRX to offset all known tariff impacts.” — CEO .
  • “Approximately $15 million in revenue initially anticipated to be recognized within the first quarter has been deferred to the second quarter due in large part to customer requests.” — CFO Vik Kini .
  • “We are taking pricing actions that are one-for-one offsetting the tariff costs… at 0 flow-through, [which is] dilutive to the overall.” — CFO .
  • “As part of our balanced capital allocation strategy, our Board has authorized an additional $1 billion of share repurchases… targeting up to $750 million… by the end of 2025.” — Company release .

Q&A Highlights

  • Guidance bridge: Management held total revenue flat but inserted a ~4% organic volume contingency to prudently de-risk amid dynamic macro; tariff pricing (+~2%) and FX/M&A (+~2%) positives were offset by that contingency .
  • Tariffs: ~$150M exposure predominantly China imports and secondary effects; two-step pricing (April list price; May surcharges) offsets costs one-for-one; supply chain relocation actions underway but in-year impact limited .
  • Margin cadence: Company-level margins flattish for FY25 given zero-flow-through tariff offsets; PST margins expected to sequentially improve back toward ~30% through 2025; ITS margins down YoY on deleverage and acquisition mix .
  • Seasonality & Q2 framing: H1 ~46% of EPS/EBITDA; Q2 around $505M EBITDA and ~$0.80 EPS “ballpark,” consistent phasing vs prior years .
  • Demand signals: Aftermarket up 6%; equipment softness implied but not recessionary in management’s view; orders balanced across short- and long-cycle; April orders in line .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025: EPS $0.72 vs $0.737*; Revenue $1,716.8M vs $1,725.4M*; EBITDA $459.7M vs $472.97M* — modest misses driven by revenue deferral, investment spending, and tariff dynamics with zero-margin price offsets . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Street likely to revise FY25 EPS/EBITDA lower and recalibrate organic volume assumptions following the guide cut, while incorporating tariff price-cost neutrality and higher M&A revenue (~$330M) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Orders and FCF strength support durability, but near-term EPS/EBITDA are pressured by tariff price-cost neutrality and prudence on organic volumes — expect margin improvement skewed to H2 as PST recovers and pricing actions annualize .
  • The guide reset reduces execution risk; watch April/May order conversion and H2 organic trajectory, especially in PST life sciences and ITS recurring revenue mix .
  • Share repurchase authorization (+$1B) and targeted up to $750M buybacks in 2025 are supportive to per-share metrics and a potential stock support/catalyst in choppy macro .
  • M&A remains a core growth lever with disciplined multiples (~9x pre-synergy in recent deals); inorganic revenue raised to ~$330M in 2025, expect continued bolt-ons in air treatment and life sciences .
  • China remains cautious but stabilizing; in-region for-region footprint provides a competitive moat under tariff regimes; watch APAC ex-China for share gains .
  • ITS margin compression reflects volume deleverage and mix; recurring revenue and IRX productivity initiatives should aid margin trajectory as volumes stabilize .
  • Dividend maintained ($0.02 per share payable June 5, 2025), but buybacks dominate capital returns this year .

Appendix: Additional Items

  • Dividend: Regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.02 per share, payable June 5, 2025 (record date May 15, 2025) .
  • Q1 balance sheet: Cash $1.613B, total liquidity ~$4.2B; net leverage 1.6x LTM adjusted EBITDA .
  • Recent bolt-ons: G&D Chillers and Advanced Gas Technologies added to IT&S, expanding air treatment capabilities; combined purchase price ~$27M .

Please note: All consensus estimate values marked with an asterisk (*) are values retrieved from S&P Global.