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    Ingersoll Rand (IR)

    Q4 2023 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$89.47Last close (Feb 16, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$89.47Last close (Feb 16, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.00(0.00%)
    • Upcoming energy efficiency and refrigeration standards are expected to positively impact Ingersoll Rand's air treatment business, providing growth opportunities in both Europe and the U.S.
    • The Industrial Technologies and Services (ITS) segment achieved a 30% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q4, up from 28.8% in Q3, driven by higher volumes, productivity measures, and strong execution. The aftermarket business is performing well and is margin accretive, setting up nicely for future growth.
    • M&A remains a top priority, with Ingersoll Rand having 10 transactions under letter of intent (LOI), indicating a robust pipeline for growth through acquisitions. The company also has a couple of deals where the purchase price exceeds $1 billion, suggesting potential for significant scale expansion.
    • No incremental share buybacks included in the 2024 guidance: The company confirmed that it has not formally included any incremental share buybacks in its 2024 guidance, suggesting a potentially less aggressive capital return strategy .
    • Limited impact from regulatory changes: Management indicated that there are no significant new regulatory changes expected in the next 12 to 24 months that could impact the business, implying a lack of regulatory catalysts .
    • Uncertainty in capital allocation plans: The absence of explicit guidance on share repurchases or significant capital deployment may indicate uncertainties in the company's capital allocation strategy .
    1. China Outlook
      Q: What's your base case view on China?
      A: Q4 China orders were down mid-single digits, following low double-digit growth in Q4 2022. On a two-year stack, they saw high single-digit momentum. The environment in China is improving, with teams energized to leverage technology into growth areas.

    2. Margin Expansion Amid Weak Volumes
      Q: Can you expand margins if volumes weaken?
      A: Despite lower growth, we're generating strong margins driven by I2V, pricing actions, and aftermarket growth. We've taken proactive restructuring to protect the P&L and ensure solid margin improvement.

    3. Q1 Orders and Asia Headwinds
      Q: Are orders expected to be down in Q1 due to Asia?
      A: We don't guide on orders but expect Q1 orders to be up sequentially from Q4. Typically, we book above 1.0 book-to-bill in the first half due to larger projects.

    4. M&A Market Opening Up
      Q: Is the M&A market opening up, especially for large deals?
      A: Yes, M&A activity is increasing. We have 10 LOIs, similar to past bolt-ons, and still have deals over $1 billion in the funnel. We remain disciplined, having walked away from a $1 billion deal.

    5. Life Sciences Recovery
      Q: Do you expect Life Sciences to return to growth in 2024?
      A: Life Sciences is 25%-30% of PST. We expect it to return to normal growth in the second half of 2024.

    6. Lessons from Acquisitions
      Q: Any lessons from acquisitions that missed expectations?
      A: Some underperformers lacked early IRX integration. We've enhanced our playbook to ensure integration from day one. We monitor M&As closely to address issues promptly.

    7. Backlog Normalization
      Q: Will backlog levels normalize over time?
      A: Backlog remains high. With a book-to-bill of ~1.0, we expect backlogs to stay above historical levels. There's a structural shift with more longer-cycle projects.

    8. Manufacturing Efficiency Post-COVID
      Q: Is manufacturing efficiency back to pre-COVID levels?
      A: Not yet. Ongoing supply chain disruptions cause factory inefficiencies. We're continuously improving operations but haven't returned to pre-COVID stability.

    9. Market Assumptions
      Q: What are your assumptions on the broader environment?
      A: Americas show better momentum; Europe is stable; Middle East and India are strong, especially India. Asia Pacific faces headwinds due to tough comps, particularly China.

    10. Demand Generation Upside
      Q: Is there upside from demand generation in guidance?
      A: Yes, potential upside exists. Demand generation is part of our healthy backlog and growth plans. Upside opportunities may increase as the year progresses.

    11. Price-Cost Expectations
      Q: What's the price-cost outlook, especially in ITS?
      A: Expect ~2% price for the full year. We anticipate being dollar and margin positive each quarter in 2024.

    12. M&A Revenue Contribution
      Q: Clarify the incremental 400-500 bps M&A contribution
      A: The $160 million in guidance is from completed deals. The 400-500 bps refers to expected acquisitions in the year and their annualized revenue.

    13. Working Capital in 2024
      Q: How are you managing working capital for 2024?
      A: We see opportunities to improve. Inventory levels are still elevated. Focused on collections and integrating bolt-on M&As into shared services to enhance working capital.

    14. Earnings Phasing and Margins
      Q: Is the earnings phasing similar to last year?
      A: Yes, phasing is consistent with 2023. Incremental margins of 35%-40% are expected, driven by I2V, price, aftermarket growth, M&A improvements, restructuring, and reduced corporate costs.

    15. EV Truck Order Potential
      Q: Can the EV truck order return?
      A: Prospects are improving. The customer faced bankruptcy issues but assets have been acquired, and we're in discussions.

    16. Air Treatment Benefits
      Q: Update on air treatment acquisitions benefits
      A: Exciting additions like SPX Flow, Oxywise, and Friulair enhance our portfolio. Air treatment has a 70% attachment rate to compressors and is 50% of aftermarket, driving growth.

    17. Growth Drivers
      Q: Are short-cycle products supporting growth?
      A: Seeing better momentum in shorter to medium cycle products as PMIs improve. Industrial short-cycle is up mid-single digits year-over-year and sequentially.

    18. European Compressor Orders Strength
      Q: What's driving strong European compressor orders?
      A: High energy prices are the most important factor, followed by Scope 1 emission targets.

    19. Regulatory Impact
      Q: Any regulatory changes impacting your business?
      A: No significant new changes. Aware of energy efficiency and refrigeration standards, viewed positively.

    20. Life Sciences Demand Generation
      Q: Has demand generation helped in Life Sciences?
      A: Yes, it's helping us reach fragmented customers efficiently. We provide solutions in energy efficiency, water efficiency, and digitalization. We expect a return to normal growth.

    21. ITS Margin Improvement
      Q: What's behind ITS margin improvement in Q4?
      A: Margins increased to 30% from 28.8% in Q3. Driven by higher volumes, productivity measures like I2V, positive price-cost, and strong aftermarket momentum.

    22. PST Life Sciences Percentage
      Q: What percent of PST is Life Sciences?
      A: Life Sciences is 25%-30% of PST.

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