Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered 9% total revenue growth to $213.0M, OEBITDA up 3% to $117.1M, and diluted EPS of $0.32; service revenue grew 4% to $154.0M as equipment and engineering & support outperformed .
2025 outlook: service revenue growth 5–7% and OEBITDA of $490–$500M; capex guided to ~$90M; cash taxes remain < $10M through 2026; management also flagged a planned quarterly dividend increase to $0.15 starting in Q3 2025 .
Commercial IoT revenue +15% YoY in Q4 to $41.4M with ARPU $7.29; sequential subscriber decline reflects a large partner’s plan changes (no revenue impact in 2025 given fixed-price terms); management expects greater seasonality in 2025 and higher IoT revenue again in 2026 from this customer .
Strategic product advances underpin the medium-term thesis: Iridium Certus GMDSS launched in Dec-2024 to anchor L-band as preferred VSAT companion at sea , and 3GPP accepted Iridium’s NTN NB‑IoT work item into Release 19, enabling standards-based D2D ramp toward early 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Commercial IoT strength and mix: Q4 commercial IoT revenue up 15% YoY to $41.4M with ARPU $7.29; management reiterated 2025 double-digit IoT revenue growth and fixed-price protection at the large partner despite higher seasonality .
Government and E&S momentum: Government service revenue up 1% YoY in Q4 to $26.8M (EMSS step-up); Engineering & Support up 20% YoY to $37.4M on U.S. government activity/SDA scope .
Strategic products as catalysts: Launch of Iridium Certus GMDSS consolidates safety functions and backup connectivity in one terminal; management positioning L‑band as preferred VSAT companion; 3GPP R19 acceptance accelerates standards-based D2D/NTN .
- “We’re currently in a transition to being what we believe is the preferred L‑band companion to VSAT on maritime ships.” — CEO Matt Desch .

What Went Wrong

Broadband softness: Q4 broadband revenue down 9% YoY to $13.4M and ARPU fell to $268 as usage shifts to companion mode; management guides ongoing ARPU pressure in 2025 despite GMDSS tailwinds .
IoT subscribers down sequentially: Total billable subs fell from 2,482k in Q3 to 2,460k in Q4 tied to a large partner’s plan changes, elevating seasonality; management emphasized no 2025 revenue impact due to fixed-price contract .
Equipment margins to dip in 2025: While sales are expected roughly in line with 2024, management guided equipment margins down modestly as a one-time 2024 cost benefit won’t repeat .

Financial Results

Key headline metrics vs prior periods and estimates

Metric	Q4 2023 (oldest)	Q3 2024	Q4 2024 (newest)	Vs. Estimate
Total Revenue ($M)	$194.7	$212.8	$213.0	N/A – consensus unavailable
Service Revenue ($M)	$148.0	$159.9	$154.0	N/A – consensus unavailable
OEBITDA ($M)	$114.1	$124.4	$117.1	N/A – consensus unavailable
Operating Income ($M)	$46.3	$54.9	$52.1	N/A – consensus unavailable
Net Income ($M)	$38.0	$24.4	$36.3	N/A – consensus unavailable
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.30	$0.21	$0.32	N/A – consensus unavailable

Note: Wall Street consensus figures were unavailable due to S&P Global request limits at query time.

Segment and revenue mix

Revenue ($M)	Q4 2023 (oldest)	Q3 2024	Q4 2024 (newest)
Commercial Service	$121.5	$133.3	$127.3
- Voice & Data	$55.6	$57.7	$57.1
- IoT Data	$36.1	$43.7	$41.4
- Broadband	$14.6	$15.5	$13.4
- Hosted Payload & Other	$15.2	$16.4	$15.4
Government Service	$26.5	$26.5	$26.8
Subscriber Equipment	$15.7	$22.2	$21.6
Engineering & Support	$31.1	$30.7	$37.4
Total Revenue	$194.7	$212.8	$213.0

KPIs and ARPU

KPI	Q4 2023 (oldest)	Q3 2024	Q4 2024 (newest)
Total Billable Subscribers (000s)	2,279	2,482	2,460
Commercial Subs (000s)	2,134	2,341	2,319
Government Subs (000s)	145	141	141
Commercial Voice & Data ARPU ($/mo)	$45	$46	$45
Commercial IoT ARPU ($/mo)	$7.12	$7.79	$7.29
Broadband ARPU ($/mo)	$294	$309	$268

Balance sheet and capital returns (Q4 2024)

Net debt $1.714B; cash $93.5M; capex $24.3M in Q4 and $69.9M in 2024; dividends paid in 2024 totaled $64.7M; Q4 repurchases ~4.1M shares for $121.9M; $430.3M remaining on authorization through 2027 .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Service Revenue Growth	FY 2025	—	5%–7%	New item
OEBITDA ($M)	FY 2025	—	$490–$500	New item
Cash Taxes	2024–2026	< $10M/yr (reiterated)	< $10M/yr	Maintained
Net Leverage Target	Through 2026 / by decade-end	<4.0x through 2026; <2.0x by decade-end (reiterated)	Same (3.6x at 12/31/24)	Maintained
Equipment Revenue	FY 2025	—	“In line with 2024”	New item
Engineering & Support Revenue	FY 2025	—	Increase from 2024	New item
Capex	FY 2025	—	~ $90M	New item
Depreciation	FY 2025	—	~ stable vs 2024	New item
Interest Expense	FY 2025	—	Modest YoY increase	New item
Dividend	2025	$0.14/quarter in 2024	Expect increase to $0.15 starting Q3 2025	Raised (planned)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
D2D / NTN standards & timing	Project Stardust progress; reiterated strategy; Q3: 3GPP accepted Iridium NTN Direct into Release 19; consumer and inbound roaming path	Live testing with pre-standard chips in 2025; commercial launch early 2026; small impact in 2026, ramp in 2027–2029	Advancing on plan
Maritime & GMDSS / VSAT companion	Q3: positioned as L‑band companion; GMDSS terminals coming; partner pipelines	Launched Iridium Certus GMDSS; expect broadband ARPU pressure in 2025 despite share gains; L‑band as preferred companion	Product launch; mix shift continues
PNT (Satelles) expansion	Q2: acquisition; Q3: strong activity; target $100M by 2030; broader geography and BD ramp	PNT cited as tailwind in 2025; strong contributions offset prior one-time comp; growing interest vs spoofing/jamming	Building momentum
Equipment normalization	Q2: lower YoY; expect normalization; Q3: improving and positive comps H2	Q4 improved to $21.6M; 2025 expected in line with 2024; margins modestly down as one-time benefit lapses	Stabilizing
U.S. Gov’t (EMSS/SDA)	Q2: EMSS rate step-up to $107M from 9/15/24; SDA work growing	EMSS step-up flows through; E&S growth on SDA; no EMSS step-downs expected; discussing next contract	Stable to improving

Management Commentary

“Iridium will return to a more normalized OEBITDA growth profile.” — CEO Matt Desch .
“We are focused on safety and mission-critical applications and operating completely different spectrum than Starlink… bets against our growth [are] misplaced.” — CEO Matt Desch .
“In IoT, 2025 will be another year of revenue growth in part to a step up in our fixed-price contracts with our largest IoT customer… We anticipate double-digit revenue growth even with added subscriber seasonality.” — CFO Vincent O’Neill .
“As a companion service [at sea]… we’re confident in our product positioning going forward.” — CEO Matt Desch .

Q&A Highlights

D2D/NTN financial impact and TAM: Commercial launch targeted for early 2026 with small initial revenue, ramping materially into 2027–2029; focus on NB‑IoT and complementary use cases with MNOs .
Broadband trajectory: ARPU to remain under pressure in 2025 as companion mix grows; management aims to offset with GMDSS-driven share gains; ~$250 ARPU seen as a base-level assumption .
IoT subscriber seasonality: A large partner’s shift from annual to monthly plans will increase seasonality; fixed-price contract protects 2025 revenue; management expects higher revenue again from this customer in 2026 .
Government EMSS: Contract steps up; no step-downs anticipated; discussions ongoing regarding the next contract .
Aireon optionality: Management positive on Aireon’s trajectory and open to increasing stake at the right price amid potential recapitalization, citing future high-margin, high-cash-flow potential .

Estimates Context

Consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 revenue and EPS was unavailable at query time due to data access limits. As a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses vs Wall Street for this quarter. We will update when S&P Global access is available.

Key Takeaways for Investors

2025 guidance implies re-acceleration toward “normalized” growth: 5–7% service revenue and $490–$500M OEBITDA; execution against IoT, E&S, and government drivers will be key .
Mix shift manageable: Broadband ARPU pressure continues as backup/companion use rises, but Certus GMDSS and L‑band’s reliability/safety advantage aim to defend maritime share and support total revenue .
IoT seasonality is optical, not economic (2025): Fixed-price terms with a large partner insulate revenue; management expects further growth from the account in 2026, while broader IoT product cycles (Certus mid-band/IMT) add support .
PNT (Satelles) and SDA are growing secular legs: Both provide non-consumer, government/enterprise-tied revenue streams with improving visibility and attractive margins over time .
Capital returns remain a core pillar: ~$469M returned in 2024; buyback authorization remains sizable; dividend expected to rise to $0.15 in Q3 2025; deleveraging path intact (<2x by decade-end) .
D2D/NTN is a medium-term catalyst: 3GPP R19 inclusion and 2026 commercial availability set up a 2027–2029 ramp; complements terrestrial and other satellite solutions rather than competing head-on .

Appendix: Additional Data

Full-quarter detail (Q4 2024)

Total revenue $213.0M; service revenue $154.0M; equipment $21.6M; engineering & support $37.4M; OEBITDA $117.1M; net income $36.3M; diluted EPS $0.32 .
Cash & equivalents $93.5M; net debt $1.714B; capex $24.3M in Q4; dividends paid in 2024 $64.7M; Q4 repurchases ~$121.9M .

Cross-check vs 8-K

The 8-K furnished the same press release, including the operating statement, OEBITDA reconciliation, subscriber and ARPU details, and 2025 outlook .

Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary