Sign in

    INTUITIVE SURGICAL (ISRG)

    Q4 2023 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$371.41Last close (Jan 23, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$383.93Open (Jan 24, 2024)
    Price Change
    $12.52(+3.37%)
    • The adoption of da Vinci systems in general surgery procedures like colorectal, bariatrics, cholecystectomy, and hernia is still in the second quartile of the adoption curve in the U.S., providing significant room for growth. Internationally, adoption is even earlier, in the first quartile, indicating a considerable runway for expansion.
    • The anticipated launch of the next-generation da Vinci 5 system, possessing 10,000x the processing power of previous generations, is expected to enhance performance and usability, offering hospitals more options and potentially driving further adoption and penetration. , ,
    • The SP platform is exhibiting robust growth, with fourth-quarter placements increasing to 19 systems, and is expected to expand into Europe in 2024, opening new markets and contributing to revenue growth. Additionally, despite current supply challenges, there is strong customer demand for the Ion system, and resolving these issues could unlock significant growth potential.
    • Delays and uncertainties in the launch of da Vinci 5 may impact revenue growth: Intuitive Surgical has not yet received FDA clearance for da Vinci 5 and cannot provide specificity on launch timing and pricing. The company expects a phased rollout over several quarters once cleared, and as a result, expects total system placements for 2024 to be lower than 2023. Trading volumes are expected to be lower in 2024 due to the end of the SI trading cycle and the phased rollout of da Vinci 5. This may negatively impact revenue growth in 2024. ,
    • Gross margins and operating margins are under pressure due to new product launches and increased costs: The anticipated launch of da Vinci 5, increased depreciation expense, and an adverse mix impact from the growth in new platforms are expected to put pressure on operating margins in 2024. The company expects its pro forma gross profit margin to be within 67% and 68% of net revenue, down from 68% in 2023. Operating margins are expected to be under pressure in 2024. ,
    • Supply chain challenges and competition may hinder growth in key markets: Intuitive Surgical experienced supply challenges for its Ion catheter and vision probe, limiting Ion system placements during the quarter and contributing to backlog growth. The company is not ready to specify when these supply chain issues will be resolved. Additionally, system placements in China are expected to be at lower levels due to ongoing anticorruption efforts and increasing competition, which may impact procedure growth in 2024. , ,
    1. Da Vinci 5 Launch Timing
      Q: When will da Vinci 5 be launched?
      A: Management is aiming for a 2024 launch of da Vinci 5, pending FDA clearance. They are engaged in constructive conversations with the FDA but cannot guarantee the exact timing.

    2. Da Vinci 5 Features and Impact
      Q: What are the key differences in da Vinci 5?
      A: While specifics are withheld until clearance, da Vinci 5 will have substantive improvements, including increased computational capability for future software enhancements. This will allow for greater penetration in existing procedures and opportunity for added functionality over time.

    3. Financial Implications of da Vinci 5
      Q: How will da Vinci 5 affect financials beyond 2024?
      A: The financial dynamics of da Vinci 5's launch differ significantly from Xi's. Management is withholding detailed financial expectations until after clearance but noted that leasing arrangements may influence upgrades, potentially allowing customers to avoid capital budget barriers.

    4. ASP Uplift and Manufacturing Capacity
      Q: Will da Vinci 5 have higher ASPs and how is manufacturing capacity scaling?
      A: They did not commit to specifics on ASP uplift but emphasized that pricing discussions will be detailed and customer-focused. Manufacturing will start with a phased launch; initial supply will be constrained intentionally, with scaling expected to take several quarters, possibly beyond a year.

    5. Leasing Dynamics with da Vinci 5
      Q: How will leasing be affected by da Vinci 5's launch?
      A: An increase in operating leases is anticipated as customers may prefer leases with upgrade clauses to transition to da Vinci 5 when available. This shift means revenue will be spread over time rather than recognized upfront.

    6. China Sales Impact
      Q: How is the anticorruption campaign affecting China sales?
      A: The anticorruption efforts in China are expected to delay tenders and impact system placements at least through the first half of 2024. Management lacks visibility beyond that period but hopes for normalization if the efforts conclude.

    7. Procedure Growth Guidance
      Q: Could you detail the 13%-16% procedure growth guidance?
      A: Growth is driven by U.S. general surgery, which grew 25% in 2023, and international procedures beyond urology, which grew 35%. The guidance accounts for potential moderation in bariatric procedures, impact from China, and benefits from backlog, with tougher comps expected in the first half of the year.

    8. Operating Margin and Expenses
      Q: How will OpEx and CapEx affect margins?
      A: Increased OpEx is anticipated due to R&D and SG&A investments for new product launches. Elevated CapEx is primarily for manufacturing facilities, with depreciation impacting cost of sales and SG&A in 2024. Operating margin expansion is expected over the medium term (3-5 years) as scaling and leverage opportunities are realized.

    9. SP and Ion Updates
      Q: What's new with SP and Ion systems?
      A: SP had its strongest quarter ever and is expanding into Japan and Europe in 2024, with ongoing trials aiming to broaden indications. Ion faces supply constraints in catheters and vision probes, with resolution expected over several quarters, though no specific timeline was provided.

    10. General Surgery Penetration
      Q: How is penetration in general surgery progressing?
      A: In the U.S., procedures like colorectal, bariatrics, cholecystectomy, and hernia are in the second quartile of adoption, indicating substantial growth opportunity. Internationally, general surgery is in the first quartile, representing early stages of adoption and significant potential.

    11. Software Improvements in da Vinci 5
      Q: Will da Vinci 5 focus on software enhancements?
      A: Yes, da Vinci 5 includes increased computational capability, enabling future software updates and added functionality over time. This rebaselining allows for sequential software enhancements, much like previous systems, building upon its capabilities for years to come.

    Research analysts covering INTUITIVE SURGICAL.