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    Invesco Ltd (IVZ)

    Q1 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$15.58Last close (Apr 22, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$14.64Open (Apr 23, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-0.94(-6.03%)
    • Invesco's ETF franchise is margin accretive and starting to see the benefits of scale, with expectations for operating leverage and improving incremental margins over time.
    • The separately managed account (SMA) platform has grown significantly to about $23 billion, especially in fixed income, representing early-stage growth with better scalability due to modern technology and operations.
    • Invesco is actively managing expenses and expects to create positive operating leverage, expressing optimism about strong organic growth trends and well-managed expenses leading to improved profitability.
    • Invesco's stock price has underperformed, with management acknowledging they are "not pleased with where the share price is" due to headwinds in key markets like China and emerging markets where client demand has not picked up.
    • Exposure to global and developing markets is creating significant headwinds and pressure on earnings, as the company's "tilt towards global and developing markets...creates a lot of headwind."
    • Client demand remains a significant headwind, particularly in developing markets, and geopolitical issues may further impact these markets, hindering margin expansion and operating leverage.
    1. Fee Rate Stabilization
      Q: When will fee rate declines stabilize?
      A: Allison noted that the net revenue yield has declined to 26.1 basis points, approaching their passive yield range of 15 to 20 basis points. She believes they are getting closer to a tipping point where the impact of mix shift diminishes, potentially stabilizing fee rates.

    2. Margin Expansion Outlook
      Q: How will margins expand over the next 12–18 months?
      A: Allison stated they are focused on managing expenses and creating positive operating leverage. Despite market and client demand headwinds, she is confident they can achieve margin expansion, potentially starting this quarter.

    3. Stock Price Performance
      Q: Why has the stock underperformed, and what's the outlook?
      A: Andrew acknowledged dissatisfaction with the share price. He attributed underperformance to narrow market demand and lagging client flows, particularly in global and emerging market equities. They are focusing on expense discipline and growth areas to improve profitability and share price.

    4. Capital Return and Buybacks
      Q: When will share buybacks resume?
      A: Allison expects to reach their target of zero net debt by the middle to back half of this year. They hope to resume regular share buybacks thereafter, aiming for a total payout ratio in the 40% to 60% range.

    5. Private Markets Growth
      Q: What's the outlook for private markets growth?
      A: Allison detailed major components: direct real estate at $69 billion, listed real estate at $15 billion, bank loans at $39 billion, and distressed and direct lending over $2 billion. Andrew highlighted strong demand in bank loans and opportunities in bringing institutional real estate strategies to the wealth space.

    6. Expense Management
      Q: Are expenses being realigned for potential cuts?
      A: Allison clarified that shifting expenses into G&A was to better classify them, not to signal cuts. They continue to streamline operations and aggressively manage expenses.

    7. Success in SMAs and Active ETFs
      Q: How are SMAs and active ETFs performing?
      A: Andrew reported their SMA platform has grown to $23 billion, with strong success in fixed income. In active ETFs, they have about $25 billion in AUM with active teams, combining both classical active funds and passive strategies supported by active teams.

    8. India Platform Streamlining
      Q: Are you streamlining your global platforms like India?
      A: Andrew explained they formed a joint venture in India, selling 60% of their Indian fund business to Hinduja Group. This partnership allows them to focus resources on growth areas and consider similar opportunities globally.

    9. Fee Rate Disclosures for Modeling
      Q: Will you provide more granular fee rate disclosures?
      A: Allison stated they have updated disclosures with fee ranges for investment capabilities. While they will adjust ranges as needed, they believe the current ranges are accurate for modeling purposes.

    10. Asia Outflows
      Q: What drove net outflows in Asia-Pacific?
      A: Andrew noted that net outflows were driven by redemptions in a Japanese equity capability. However, sourced inflows were strong, with $3.3 billion in inflows and a 6.6% organic growth rate, boosted by successes in Japan, India, and China.

    11. Definition of Private Markets Outflows
      Q: Do private markets outflows include realizations?
      A: Allison confirmed that outflows include both redemptions and realizations. Inflows were driven by over $1 billion in bank loans, with some outflows in listed real estate.