ORIX - Q1 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

It is now time to get started. Thank you for joining us for the First Quarter Consolidated Financial Results for the 3-month period ended March 30th, 2023. This is the ORIX Corporation meeting. Today we have the attendee, Hiromaru Yano, Executive Officer responsible for accounting and IR. We would like to kindly ask you to turn off the communication devices such as a mobile phone, or keep it away from your telephone so that we can prevent feedback. There's going to be presentation by Mr. Yano, followed by Q&A, and the whole meeting should last approximately 1 hour. Mr. Yano, the floor is yours.

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Thank you.

Thank you for the introduction. I am Yano, head of the Treasury and Accounting and Investment Relations. Thank you very much for joining us today. Without further ado, I will give a brief overview of the first quarter FY2024 March end results. Please see page two of the deck that shows you the executive summary, just as usual, that covers today's main points. The first is net income and ROE. ORIX posted a 2% year-on-year increase in net income to JPY 63 billion, an annualized ROE of 7%. The segments that performed well were Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing, fueled by expansion of auto-related businesses, PE investment, where industries continue to grow, and insurance, driven by higher investment income, that is. As a result, the first quarter-based profits hit JPY 82.2 billion, surpassing pre-COVID levels. The second is acceleration of reopening momentum.

The rapid increase in inbound tourists visiting Japan has led to growth in earnings at concessions, including Kansai International Airport and facility operations hotels and inns. In the aircraft leasing business, earnings continue to recover from the pandemic on the back of strong performance at airlines. Third is capital recycling. The yen weakened further during the first quarter as a result of rising US dollar and euro interest rates. This environment has allowed ORIX to seek high returns on the sales of domestic assets, primarily in Real Estate, such as logistics centers. Some industries are suffering from labor shortages, which has led to business opportunities for ORIX, which can capitalize upon the expertise the company has built in efficiently managing physical assets. The fourth point is shareholders' return. In May 2023, we announced a JPY 50 billion share buyback program.

As of the end of July, we have completed JPY 17.8 billion in buyback, or 36% of the program. Please turn to the next page. As I previously discussed, the first quarter net income came in at JPY 63 billion, up 2% year-on-year, and this translates to an annualized ROE of 7%. The right-hand chart shows quarterly trends in net income and ROE for the last two years. The first quarter net profit was the second highest in the four years since the start of COVID pandemic. Please note that from this fiscal year, we have retroactively adjusted our past earnings to reflect changes to the accounting standards for the insurance segment. As a result, the FY2023 March net income changed from JPY 273.1 billion to JPY 290.3 billion.

The following pages, which focus on segment level information, also reflects some changes to the way we calculate segment profits. Specifically, we reviewed the method to distribute profits for business shared between two different segments. As a result, although it may be small amounts, segment profits in the Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing segment increased, while those in the Environment and Energy segment decreased. Please note that these changes have also been reflected retroactively for the past fiscal years. Now, please turn to the next page. This page shows the breakdown of segment profits. Segment profit rose 6% year-on-year to JPY 91.5 billion. Please look at the right-hand chart, which shows segment profits by quarter. The light blue indicates base profits, the dark blue, investment gains. Base profits were up 12% year-on-year to JPY 82.2 billion.

This figure was higher than the first quarter for FY20 March end or FY19 March end. Profit growth was fueled primarily by progress in reopening and healthy earnings in insurance. I'll explain the details in the following segment pages. Meanwhile, investment gains were down 27% year-over-year to JPY 9.3 billion, owing to a lack of large-scale exits during the first quarter, when ORIX only recorded small, several smaller exits. Investment gains, as you can see on the right-hand chart, tend to fluctuate substantially depending on the quarter. Please note, however, that as shown on the left-hand chart, ORIX has consistently realized a certain level of investment gains for the past five years, averaging more than JPY 100 billion per annum.

We plan to realize further investment gains during the remainder of the fiscal year and achieve a typical year of investment gains. Please turn to page five. This page focuses on reopening-related businesses. The left-hand side chart shows segment profit trends for the three COVID-impacted businesses: Aircraft and Ships, facility operations, and concessions. For the first quarter, both facility operations and concessions posted their highest level of quarterly segment profits since the start of the pandemic. Aircraft and Ships are sustaining its earnings recovery trend, and the three businesses in total recorded segment profits of JPY 4.6 billion, a dramatic improvement from JPY 300 million in losses a year ago. Airport concessions centered on Kansai International Airport, saw losses shrink dramatically following a strong rebound in international passenger numbers.

Please note that owing to a lag in reporting Kansai Airport's earnings into ORIX Group, the first quarter figures reflect results for the January to March 2023 quarter. Haneda International Airport boasted 1.06 million international passengers in March. That figure surpassed 1.35 million in June, reaching 63% of the June 2019 level. In facility operations, a robust increase in inbound tourists has helped ORIX raise ADR, while still maintaining high levels of customer services. RevPAR in June at directly operated hotels were 119% of the June 2019 level, while those at traditional Japanese inns were 114%. These helped the business achieve the first good profit since the first quarter since the start of the pandemic.

Aircraft leasing are expected to recover further as narrow body lease rates already surpassing their pre-COVID levels and are continuing to rise. In all of the COVID-impacted businesses, we anticipate additional growth as Chinese tourists return to Japan. On the following page, you can see the latest trend in indices that illustrate the recovery in each businesses. Please take a look at these as well. Please skip page six and move on to page seven. I'll use the segment-specific slides to explain each segment's results. First is Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing. Segment profit rose 20% year-on-year to JPY 19.9 billion. In Corporate Financial Services, fee-related businesses performed well, including insurance sales and real estate intermediary services. Segment profits rose sharply year-over-year as we booked the valuation loss of our stake in an industry a year earlier.

Profit rose in the auto business as a result of profitability-focused sales activities we have been carrying out over the last several years and the growth in the rental car business. Prices for used cars remain high. Rental profits were down year-over-year, owing to higher depreciation expenses caused by upfront investments in rental ICT equipment ahead of expected Microsoft Windows-related upgrade demand. The business also booked costs associated with the operation of new, large, fully automated warehouse, the third location in Japan. Excluding these, results were solid. Please turn to the next page. The page shows the Real Estate segment. Segment profits were down 17% year-over-year to JPY 10 billion. In the Real Estate Investment and Facility Operations unit, earnings improved in the facility operations business, hotels and inns, as outlined earlier.

Meanwhile, profits were down year-over-year, owing to the absence of investment gains booked a year earlier from the sales of large logistics facilities and other properties. Daikyo secured a strong year-by-year increase in profits, bolstered by healthy sales of high-priced condominiums by procuring sites with excellent locations. Please turn to the next page. is PE Investment and Concession. Segment profits rose 151% year-over-year to JPY 5.7 billion. In the PE investment business unit, financial performance improved on the completion of Kobayashi Kako-related costs, as well as contributions from industries that were purchased on FY2023 March, DHC and HEXEL Works. Please note that the first quarter results include just two months, February and March 2023, of profits from DHC consolidated into ORIX Group earnings.

The concession unit posted smaller losses for the fourth consecutive quarter, aided by the recovery in international passengers, as I mentioned earlier. The unit is on track to return to profitability on a full year basis for FY2024 March. Please turn to the next page. The page shows the Environment and Energy segment. Segment profits were down 14% year-over-year to JPY 3 billion. In the domestic energy business, profits were down on lower income from power sales caused by output caps on solar power generation in some regions. In the overseas energy business, profits were down slightly year-over-year at Elawan, owing to poor weather in Spain and higher euro interest rates. Despite this, Greenko earnings were up year-over-year. Demand for renewable energy assets remains strong globally, and we are expanding our capacity with Elawan at the center. Profits are continuing to grow.

Please turn to the next page. In the insurance segment, profits were up 68% year-on-year to JPY 19.2 billion. The weak yen and high interest rates contributed to growth in investment income. In addition, Japan's May 2023 decision to legally re-reclassify COVID-19 led to further declines in COVID-19 related payout expenses. As I mentioned before, changes to accounting rules for the insurance segment have led to an increase in profits, particularly in the fourth quarter. Please turn to the next page. This is the Banking and Credit segment. Profits in banking were up year-on-year, helped by higher financial revenues from real estate investment loans on the back of higher long-term interest rates. In addition to fees rose as on an increase in trust assets and a one-time loss booked in FY2023 March first quarter also contributed to higher profits.

In the credit unit, we booked CECL reserve, reserve reversal in the fourth quarter, FY2023 March, which led to a decline in 2024 March first quarter, quarter-to-quarter, but earnings are mostly flat. Please turn to the next page. In Aircraft and Ships segment, 33% year-end decline was posted in profit to JPY 3.6 billion. The ship business posted lower profits on the absence of sales gains from a year earlier, when ORIX made a timely sales of its own ship fleet. The anchor leasing profits were up year-on-year, as recovery in passenger demand led to growth in the number of owned aircraft and higher lease income from rising lease rates.

Avolon posted losses on par with previous first quarter, owing to the higher dollar funding costs on debt from when the investment was made. As with OSS- OAS, Avolon profits on a parent basis continued to grow, as fueled by growth in leasing income. Assets were higher, owing to the increase in higher aircraft holdings in the aircraft business. Changes in Forex also contributed. Please turn to the next page. ORIX USA profit rose 61% to JPY 9.7 billion. ORIX USA has implemented strict risk management controls for both new and existing deals in light of the U.S. business climate. This has allowed the segment to control losses, including credit losses. On the three business verticals, credit business posted higher profits, helped by stable financial revenues and gains on the sale of small deals.

In the real estate business, loan meant 1st quarter origination volumes were up quarter-on-quarter and surpassed the year-earlier level. Earnings boost was seen from higher interest rates, leading to higher profits. Meanwhile, DIFM had lower, fewer deals this quarter, which led to lower profits year-on-year. In private equity, there were limited capital gains in the 1st quarter, leading to flat profits year-on-year. Please note that the assets were going to changes in Forex, and excluding that, it's down slightly. Page 28 features a breakdown by business line, so please refer to this page as well. Please turn to the next page. This is ORIX Europe. Segment profits were down 55% year-on-year to JPY 4.2 billion. AUM growth was sluggish in FY2023 March, owing to the impact of high interest rates and Russia-Ukraine conflict.

AUM has recovered slightly with the launch of active ETF products and other measures. Higher euro interest rates resulted in higher funding costs, which led to year-on-year decline in profit. Please turn to the next page. This is Asia and Australia. Segment profit was down 37% year-on-year to JPY 8 billion on the absence of a gain on the sale of a Southeast Asian affiliate a year earlier. Assets rose by JPY 120.3 billion, of which JPY 82 billion was due to changes in Forex. Excluding Forex impact, the net asset has increased. Please turn to the next page. I would like to give an overview of first quarter results and progress using the categories we disclosed at the Q4 earnings announcement. For domestic segments, both financial and non-financial categories posted higher earnings year-on-year.

The financial category, in particular, shows stable growth, showing stable good start. Overseas segments, results were below year earlier levels due to higher funding costs caused by high euro interest rates and also ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook. We are taking strict risk management stance in the U.S., and we have maintained healthy asset quality and low non-performing ratio. Please note that the overseas category, energy category, some seasonal factors have come into play, which typically lead to lower profits in the first quarter. That completes my explanation about the Q1 results. Now, I would like to talk about the business climate as well as the remainder of this fiscal year. Please turn to the next page, page 18. I will start with a discussion on the macroeconomic climate and our current status.

As for interest rates, as outlined in past quarters, ORIX looks to keep its profit sensitivity to interest rate changes low through asset-liability matching. Although a 1% increase in euro interest rates is JPY 2 billion-3 billion negative impact on annual pre-tax profits, we have worked to increase the fixed rate loans in order to reduce the sensitivity further. Yen weakness and low interest rates in Japan have encouraged overseas investors to increase investment in Japan. This environment should allow ORIX to improve our returns even further through exits in domestic assets, including real estate properties like our logistic facilities.

Regarding inflation, while this does impact a wide variety of ORIX businesses, we have been able to pass along higher costs through maintenance leasing rates, Rentec, rental fees like your condominium prices, hotel, and in, RevPAR and power prices for overseas renewable energies, among others. Finally, labor shortage is a critical issue for automobile and aircraft maintenance operations and for management of solar power generation facilities. Outsourcing of management of these assets is likely to increase, and this should allow ORIX to capitalize on the expertise in capably managing these assets to expand business opportunities. Our asset management portfolio is outlined on page 30 of the presentation material. Please refer to that as well. Moving on to the last page. The key theme for this fiscal year continues to be capital recycling.

As explained earlier, we have noticed a stronger momentum for investment among our overseas investors for domestic real estate and PE assets. Demand is particularly robust in real estate. ORIX consistently generates certain level of investment gains each fiscal year and plans to continue exits going forward in this fiscal year as well. In domestic PE investment, we have improved the value of a number of investees following a period of active management and have multiple companies close to exit. The Environment and Energy segment, L1, which ORIX acquired in 2021, has been steadily developing new assets and expanding its operating capacity. The company plans to sell some of these assets during this fiscal year and, like other segments, continue capital recycling.

In ORIX USA, we maintain a cautious stance in new investments. Most of our existing PE investees have enjoyed their growing earnings. We continue to look for opportunities to exit at the right time. For this fiscal year, we will continue to see uncertain macro macroeconomic climate. We see some positive aspects as well, such as progressing reopening and yen weakness. We will continue to work towards achieving a full year target of JPY 330 billion in net income. We announced May, in May, reach JPY 400 billion in net income and ROE of 10.4% for FY2024 March. While caution is still necessary, we plan to continue to grow proactively while looking for more investment opportunities. Thank you for your kind attention.

That's all from me.

Operator (participant)

Thank you for your attention and interest. We're now ready for the Q&A session. If you wish to ask a question, please press the star key, then press one on your telephone keypad. After the announcement of your name, please ask your question. If you wish to cancel the question, please press the star key, then press two. If you wish to ask a question, please you may ask up to one question. We have from Daiwa Securities, Watanabe-san, asking the question to begin with.

Kazuki Watanabe (Research Division Analyst)

I am Watanabe from Daiwa Securities. I'm referring to page 41, and that is to do with capital usage ratio up, going up to 39%. It was, I think, the end result of acquiring DHC. What is your tolerable level?

I know that you have been explaining about capital recycling today, which was pretty positive, but, JPY 100 billion or five years investment gain was to be achieved. Based on this capital usage, ratio, do you think that there may be some acceleration?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Thank you very much for asking the question. As to the capital, yes, usage, yes, we were impacted by DHC acquisition, as we have been sharing with you from some time ago. Whether this is correct or not, but we are constantly referring to this, the level, and whether it goes up to the level of 90% or not, is a yardstick that we would apply. In other words, we would not like to end up having excess amount of capital for the sake of the investors, the shareholders, and also remain to be agile in carrying out the M&A, if it proves to be right from the timing perspective.

We have just gone over that level currently, so which means that we may perhaps consider exiting from some of the investment and with 90% at with with abuse. We are making those thoughts, as we have explained, that real estate, in fact, is the demand remains to be strong. At the time when we put together the plan, if we were to sell a certain property, we had kind of estimated or simulated the amount of investment gains on the sales of the properties. We are now beginning to feel that this assumption, currently, the price may be higher than initial assumption or expectation.

The PE investments here in Japan, as well as domestic real estate investments and also overseas renewable energy investments, and there could be some other businesses as well. We would continue to, of course, manage all these businesses. Although I said JPY 100 billion of an average investment gain, it could be generated just like of any other usual years, and we may perhaps exceed that as well. As a issuer or developer, we would like to continue to recycle the capital, so that we would like to continuously generate profit on a recurring basis. It, and this is what we want to display and prove to the investment community. I hope this answers your question. Thank you very much. From that perspective, investment gain this year-

Kazuki Watanabe (Research Division Analyst)

... from JPY 100 billion. Do you think that there could be an overshoot from JPY 100 billion that is expected?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Well, as for the investment gains, you know, it's not something that is controllable, to hit dot on JPY 100 billion. Therefore, there could be a possibility of overshooting such a, you know, a guideline.

Kazuki Watanabe (Research Division Analyst)

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. SMBC Nikko Securities, Muraki-san, please ask your question.

Masao Muraki (Senior Analyst)

Yes, this is Muraki. I have one question. JPY 330 billion profit plan for the full year, is this still your best estimate at this point in time? On page 17, you are showing the progress. Well, if we calculate the progress from this, most of them are below 25%. Investment gain plan progress is just about 10%. I think you're saying that you can catch up. Against the base profit, on page 18, there is a downward arrow. How much of a concern is this? Financing cost, interest rate, and also inflation impact, and although it doesn't really say, there is a limit to the output of solar power generation.

Against the base plan, is this going to be a material impact? Can you please elaborate?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Thank you for your question. I clearly understand where your question's coming from. With regard to base profit, looking at the past toward the second half, base profit tends to increase. I have mentioned the reopening situation, and the concession clearly is showing recovery. The base profit may not shoot up, but every quarter we expect a gradual growth in base profit. That is my current scenario. You can add investment gains on top of that. In the first quarter, the progress rate, as you mentioned, is quite low, but there is no need to see this in a pessimistic light. Things will be built one by one, step by step, in order to achieve the full year objective.

That's the scenario. With regard to macroeconomy, euro interest rate. Well, most of the other interest rates are mostly neutral, so there is not much concern, and euro was the biggest concern, but JPY 2 billion-JPY 3 billion was mentioned earlier. Now, in this fiscal year, compared to the previous fiscal year, we have started to increase hedge volume slowly. As of today, the sensitivity is much lower than what's indicated on the slide. Going forward, the annual sensitivity is below JPY 1 billion level, which means that euro interest rate increase, should not have a material negative impact on us. We don't believe that we should hedge against everything, but we believe that the current level is probably appropriate. With regard to inflation. Inflation. I believe that was the next part of the question.

Material costs increase, and labor shortage can result from inflation. Material cost, of course, and construction cost has gone up. The real estate price increase and further lowering of expected yield and increase in price is much larger than the increase in the cost. I believe that inflation is actually positive for us. These are some of the smaller impacts, but in hotels and inns, occupancy cannot really be increased very much because it's harder to find people to work there. Still, within the limited number of headcounts, we can increase the services, and we can increase the ADR, and in the end, we are having a positive situation. We are coming back to the pre-COVID level.

In other words, we're taking advantage of the inflation in order to increase the service prices that we offer. In that sense, we want to be able to ride this wave, and we actually able to increase the top line, and we are also seeing an increase in the bottom line as a result of that. I think that should be it. Am I right, or was there anything else? Solar power generation. Yes. Cap on output. That is true, but we do not expect a major impact from that. We are actually selling energy as well, and the market is volatile.

The cost may go up or down, or there may be a competition against other companies, and we may not be able to increase the price that we sell the electricity at, so we have to look at this carefully. In terms of solar power generation, the profit contribution is very stable. I see. Maybe the arrow on page 18, I think there are more upwards arrows than downward arrows. Yes, that's how I prepared this material. That was the meaning of this slide. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Yeah, thank you very much for the question. From SBI Securities, we have Otsuka-san asking the question.

Yujin Otsuka (Analyst)

I am Otsuka from SBI Securities. I hope you can hear my voice okay.

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Yes.

Yujin Otsuka (Analyst)

Thank you. I'm referring to the data book's numbers. What has been explained by Yano-san just now, I want your clarification or confirmation. Just as usual, you have the procurement cost and also the assets, the yield, return on assets, and also the foreign currency. If you were to calculate the spread, I think it is 5% for the first quarter that has just ended, and it was 6% in the last first quarter, in the last year that is. Therefore, that is kind of downsizing the spread as a result of this foreign currency impact.

In page 18, the reason why the euro procurement, the funding costs, in fact, is resulting in such numbers, or, because you are treating those phenomena, therefore, the spread may not perhaps downsize from here down the road, it may perhaps trend flat. If you could be so kind enough to explain that. Thank you.

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Yes, your, I think, assumption is exactly the same as mine. To begin with, talking about the asset side, and that is financial asset only, and on the liability side, other than the financial liability, there are some equity investment as well, that is included. Talking about the financial asset, the asset and liability matches.

This is why, just as I explained earlier, euro, rather OCE, our OCE business and, some part of Airman, that is, the investment that we have been making, the procurement cost, I mean, by funding cost, in fact, has been pushed up. As for euro, because of the interest rate, fluctuation, we think, well, we have the position not to be, susceptible to the changes of the interest rate. We are working on the ALM, so that we will not be largely impacted by the changes. I hope this answers your question.

Yujin Otsuka (Analyst)

Yes, thank you. Yes, thank you very much. That was very easy to understand.

Operator (participant)

Mitsubishi UFJ, Morgan Stanley, and Mitsubishi. Mitsubishi, thank you.

Natsuo Tsujino (Analyst)

You mentioned about the impact of the opening fixed assets and also real estate. I think this is the operation or management only, so DHC contribution and also investment gains. I subtracted that from the information that I received. What kind of improvements do you think you will see in each of these items? In terms of concession, JPY 450 million in red. Then JPY 8.9 in red, and just under JPY 2 billion in red in these three quarters. There was an improvement from January through March, but the improvement was not that impressive. Going forward, what do you think will happen? April through June, was there any special high cost? Was it the special item, and maybe the actual improvement was much better than this?

If that is the case, please talk about that. Also, if you look at the Real Estate, operations only, there are activities, and, it was JPY 1.2 billion from October to December, and then, it went to deficit, and then JPY 1.4 billion in April, June. In the past, if you just looked at the operations, it was about JPY 3 billion. What do you think, you need to do in order to go back to that level? Do you expect, that level of re-recovery before the end of the fiscal year? That's my question.

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Thank you. In terms of concession, it is a related affiliate company.

I don't know to what extent I can comment, but January through March for them, every year sees cost for repair, which means that fixed cost tends to be posted in high amount in January through March, and that's basically April through June this year, which means that there is a big recovery. There, April through June and our July through September, should see more growth. That's what we expect. For concession, we have seen a good recovery. We do have high expectations. Having said that, hotels and inns, well, we have a very good feel for this segment. As of today, I would say the situation is actually better than pre-COVID. Hotels and inns operations have seasonality, usually better in spring and autumn and worse in winter.

Even before the pandemic, we were actually running deficits in winter season. If you exclude the seasonality, if you take that out, you can see that we have seen steady recovery quarter by quarter. Again, we have high expectations for this segment as well.

Natsuo Tsujino (Analyst)

Hotels and inns and concessions on their own, how much increase in profit can we see? That might be another question, but for these two, we expect a big growth. Mr. Muraki asked a similar question earlier, I think. Base profit. What will happen to base profit going forward?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Well, since we have these expectations in these areas, we believe that a certain amount of growth is definitely possible, and for aircraft as well. We have JAL, and this is also cycling, and we can sell aircrafts, which will push up the profit.

For these three particular segments, we expect a further growth in profit. In terms of recovery from the pandemic, in terms of Corporate Financial Services, rental car is showing a very good recovery as well, and that's one of the pieces of contribution that we see. That's all from me.

Natsuo Tsujino (Analyst)

Yes. Hotels and inns, occupancy-wise, I understand, it's a pre-COVID level, but maybe because of inflation, profit will not recover to JPY 3 billion-JPY 4 billion on a quarterly level yet. Is that true or not?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

In terms of occupancy, because of labor shortage, occupancy itself is actually quite difficult to raise. In hotels and inns, we have increased the unit price. As a result, what we call RevPAR, as you can see on page six of the handout.

Compared to 2019, we have seen some increase, so we can expect some positive results here.

Natsuo Tsujino (Analyst)

Thank you. I understand.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, Tsujino-san. Now over to Sasaki-san from Nomura Securities.

Futoshi Sasaki (Financial Analyst)

I am Sasaki from Nomura Securities. Can you hear my voice okay?

Operator (participant)

Yes, we can hear you well.

Futoshi Sasaki (Financial Analyst)

Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions. The first, according to, I, I don't think Yano-san have mentioned this. With regard to the new investment, after the first quarter, there might be some, of course, positives and negatives. Also, you have mentioned about labor shortages. In the case of hotels, the luxury hotels, construction, in fact, is proceeding in Japan, and condominium price has been rising, too. In terms of the timing... With regard to the first, the new investment, considering any kind of strategy changes after the first quarter, do you have any idea? Thank you very much. That's the first question.

The second question, for Robeco, the asset management side of your business, I suppose if you were to exclude the Forex impact, AUM, I think, is turning to the I think has decreased, and outflow of fund, I think, is continuing from last year. Do you know anything about the notification of the cancellation? How do you foresee the development at the asset management companies?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

First of all, let me start with the new investment. This time, well, it was the first quarter, and this is why. Now that, you know, we would, I, I would, I had, of course, paid the attention for the first quarter performance and also the second quarter, how we foresee the second quarter. This is why I have not made at all mention about the new investment. The PE investment, we do have some actual, kind of outcome of, we do have the actual, case of, new investment and, real estate related. It is capital recycling after all. We have new development. As for hotels and inns, there were initial plan on our part, such as Suginoi in Oita.

We had rebuilt the hotel, and that was quite sizable even during the period of COVID-19 pandemic. We have been working on the development of hotels. How long would the-

Real estate, the boom may continue, but the construction cost is rising, so we need to turn cautious. We cannot, of course, continue to enjoy the heydays. That should not be the case, but, you know, we have, of course, been developing ourselves, and we'll be able to increase the value that way. It means that we can always, you know, develop and hold as opposed to develop and exit. We would like to continue that way. Going forward, on a much longer perspective, so at the time of the closing of the second quarter results, I suppose we'll be able to share some examples of PE investment.

As the second part of your question, Robeco and other asset management AUM, please. I think, please refer to the numbers that appear on the material that we have provided to you. We call it as data book, or we call it as supplementary information for the 3 months ended June 30, 2023, that we disclosed. We have publishing the bulletin report as well as presentation material and also this supplementary information. The page 23 shows the level of AUM. Unfortunately, in the second quarter, the net new money or the inflow of money was a $2.9 billion decline. Page 22. If you were to refer to the outstanding balance, 2023 March end, $296.1 billion and $305.1 billion thereafter.

In 2023, April to June, which means that we have increased the AUM at the end of the period. The net new money was on decline, as you can see from the chart on page 21, and we have been covering it somewhat by the appreciation of the prices of the financial products. We would try to, of course, do whatever we can to increase the net new money going forward. I hope this answers your question.

Futoshi Sasaki (Financial Analyst)

Robeco, the asset class that you are struggling the most, is it alternative asset or equity or bonds?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

I'm not sure, to be honest. Robeco, they are good at managing traditional financial products, I think they would like to perhaps increase the alternative assets.

Futoshi Sasaki (Financial Analyst)

In other words, you are struggling with the traditional assets rather than anything new or newer?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Robeco, and we had Harbor Capital and Boston Partners. Those are the asset managers that we own, and the US Harbor is struggling, so we are converting the way in which the management is done to active for that company going forward.

Futoshi Sasaki (Financial Analyst)

Thank you very much. I would like to perhaps ask you the further questions later date.

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Over to the next person, Asma.

Operator (participant)

JP Morgan, .

Koki Sato (Analyst)

Yes, Can you hear me okay?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Yes, I can hear you.

Koki Sato (Analyst)

Thank you. I would like to ask you to give me some more explanation about the Aircraft and Ships. In line with concession and Real Estate, what kind of recovery do you expect? I want to understand that based on the trend, also the ships were already included in the different quarters in the past. Avolon can be excluded, pure aircraft profit is difficult for us to see. For example, on page 13, this is the segment profit and the quarterly trend. Can you maybe give us more information about this so that we can see the breakdown of the aircraft trend, for example? Excluding Avolon, just over JPY 2 billion decline in profit is seen. If you exclude the sales of marine vessels, what is the situation?

Can you please explain this in a little bit more detail?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Thank you. Well, ships did not have a big impact. That was our assumption. That is why we put them together with the aircraft. For first quarter of 2023 March, eight ships were sold, and we gained a lot from that sale. Roughly speaking, in the first quarter last year, JPY 4 billion profit in ships, and in this fiscal year, in this quarter, JPY 2 billion. That's the scale, that's the trend. If we exclude that, the remainder is aircraft, and the aircraft is growing year-on-year. Lease fees are increasing overall, and also, because of JOL, we can sell aircraft as well. We expect to see growth going forward. For ships, we made a clear decision to sell, and the assumption was very clear.

When the situations are bad, we buy, and when the situations are good, we always sell. There could be some ups and downs, but we also have JOLCO, which is another methodology for ships. We also have ships loans as well.

... marine vessel loans, which provides us with a spread based on the value of the vessel. We can do this because we can operate their vessels, and we can provide loans, if anything happens, we can always repossess the vessels. That is why we want to keep our steady method with ships, at least for the time being. Aircraft is recovering steady in a nice way. For this fiscal year, our profit for ships is lower than the prior year. Still, as you can see that already in the plan, that decline in ships can be more than compensated by the aircraft. That's all from me. Thank you.

Koki Sato (Analyst)

I just want to double-check the numbers. Last year, ships, $4 billion in the first quarter, and $2 billion this fiscal year?

This is a very rough number. If that's the rough number, if we exclude those numbers, non-Avolon aircraft is only increasing at JPY several hundred million, so it's only a slight increase?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Yes, that's correct.

Koki Sato (Analyst)

The data book, P&L, shows this is no longer segment operating profit. You are using a different expression. The equity method contribution, prior to that contribution, the number is lower than the prior year. On YOY, excluding Avolon, there is an increase in the equity method part. Aircraft recovery is contributing to the first quarter, basically in the equity method? That's Avolon. Equity method, a profit increase is Avolon. Let me double-check. I'm not saying anything wrong, am I?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Avolon profit, Avolon does its own earnings announcement, one month later, we can capture the profit to our financials, financials.

That is why we see a increase in the equity method. We're also charging interest rate for that investment, and the US interest rate is going up. That's negative. Avolon recovery looks weak if you just look at the segment profit. That is the current status. Aircraft and Ships, sometimes we have a joint venture with funds to own aircraft and vessels. Sometimes we have a equity method applied to the profits and losses, but that's quite rare. This equity method profit or loss is mostly Avolon related. Debt costs, this is profit before the charging of the debt costs.

Koki Sato (Analyst)

That's very clear. Thank you very much.

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Thank you for the question.

Operator (participant)

From Okada-san, from UBS Securities, please.

Taiki Okada (Analyst)

I am Okada from UBS Securities. As for myself, I'd like to ask question about the page 28. I'm referring to your US businesses. The three businesses of United States, if you could be so kind enough to explain a little more into detail. As compared to three months ago, each of these segments, what has changed? If we were to refer to the base of profit, the credit has returned. However, Real Estate, private equity, on a year-over-year basis, unfortunately, you have experienced a decline. As compared to three months ago, I think, your view to U.S. economy may have improved, but based on those backdrop, in other words, the economic environment or conditions, how do you foresee the businesses trending going forward?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

As for the US businesses, well, we would, of course, hope to increase the top line for sure, but the credit so far, we have not been increasing the bad loans or bad debt. Of course, for the time being, because I will not be able to say anything in a kind of an advent manner for the future. We think that the current trend can be continued. As for the base profit for the real estate, it is kind of difficult to segregate the two. The Boston Financial, for the low-income bracket people, we securitize the real estate assets. You know, it varies from quarter to quarter. This quarter there was none, and this is why the base profit, unfortunately, well, as we experienced a decline.

As for PE investment, unfortunately so, exit is not that smooth at this point in time, and this is why private equity was on decline in terms of the base profit. The investee of the PE, we are charging the interest rate, and the cost, in fact, has been rising. This is, this has resulted in negative consequences. That, in fact, are the major factors to the negative base rate, base profit, sorry. We have been, of course, giving out the direction to ORIX USA not to overstretch, and because you see the current conditions, that does not allow them to be that successful with the businesses that we have been running....

By making use of, by making use of, the leverages, and if the PE investment may start to recover, we may be able to enjoy a better performance going forward. I hope this answers your question.

Taiki Okada (Analyst)

Thank you. Just, one follow-up question. The PE exit in United States, I suppose there have been one or two perhaps PE exits, so that the situation, in fact, is, remains to be unchanged going forward as well?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Did I say one or two? I, I may have said, you know, one or two or three, but are you asking me the question whether we have said so for the first quarter results three months ago? At that, that timing or throughout the year, there could be a possibility of some exits. You know, there are some, you know, equity investment that we have made to keep the association or the partnership going. We may be able to perhaps exit out of some one or two perhaps investment. I may have expressed that in such a way, and that we would like to, of course, keep to such a plan. We have not, of course, materialized that, but I think we do foresee an opportunity to exit out of those investments.

Taiki Okada (Analyst)

Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Citigroup, Mila San, please.

Speaker 10

Yes, this is Mila, Citigroup. Can you hear me?

Operator (participant)

Yes, we can hear you.

Speaker 10

Thank you. Question about banking. Two questions. One is impact of YCC for this fiscal year and next fiscal year. How do you think this will impact your company performance? What is your analysis? Was it surprise or not? Secondly, specifically, green and non-recourse loans are done, what is the current status, and what is the current status of spread? Thank you.

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

ORIX Bank is a bank, higher interest rate would generally have a positive impact on the banking business. They do a lot of loans for small condominiums for investment purposes, many of them are linked to the long-term prime rate. You may be surprised, that is true, if the five-year interest rate goes up, then ORIX Bank's profit actually goes up. That is the structure.

Interest rate increase, especially yield curve steepening, is actually quite beneficial for ORIX Bank. BOJ's interest rate policy change, it is very difficult to judge how much of a change they have actually made, but need to long-term zone interest rate will continue to creep up, which is good for us. I don't know to what extent we can expect more, but yes, we do have expectations. That's my explanation about banking business, mostly loans for investment purposes. Other than that, we are just making all our efforts. We are getting people together, and Environment and Energy head, Nishibori-san now moved to banking business. He's using his own network to grow the business, and the business is growing by several hundreds of billions of JPY.

It's not just a accumulation game. We will take advantage of the trust function and sell the assets and turn this into another recycling, a capital recycling business. In terms of impact for the group, maybe it doesn't look like much, but at the banking business level, there's definite steady growth. Please continue to watch them for a while. That's the current status. Thank you very much for your very detailed explanation. That was very clear.

Operator (participant)

It is almost time to finish up this session, so the next person is going to be the final question from Sakamaki-san of Mizuho Securities before we ask Yano-san to close the session.

Naruhiko Sakamaki (Equity Research Analyst)

I am Sakamaki from Mizuho Securities. Thank you. I would like to ask questions about Asia as well as Oceania. In the last year, you shared with us the idea of increasing the asset. But I don't think you have been generating much of the profit. The contribution to the profit as revenue, as a result of the, the asset, the, standing balance of asset that you have been building up over time, how long does it take?

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

With regard to Asia, as well as Australia, the traditional leasing business and also investing business are the two major businesses. The traditional that is equity method holding, and we have been selling those assets as well. The profit that we have been generating, in fact, are patchy, but we had increased-

... the asset of the leasing during the period of COVID, the pandemic. The contribution from that leasing businesses, although gradual, but we are beginning to generate some profit. Investment, in fact, does fluctuate over time. It, it looks as, it, it doesn't look, you know, it is suboptimal. In Greater China, we have been making quite a bit of investment in the past, but as for the new investment, we have not been that proactive. While, you know, we would like to rather work on the exit of the investment that we have made in the overseas location.

I don't know how much, in Asia, as well as in Australia, inclusive of Greater China, that is, we would foresee the opportunity to exit out of those investments so that we can make a positive contribution to the revenue as well as profit that could be generated. I hope this is, I think that this may not answer to your question in a direct manner, but this is how we foresee.

Naruhiko Sakamaki (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, Anna, closing next, please.

Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer and Head of Treasury and Accounting)

Well, thank you again for joining today. I have already explained quite a lot, so there's not much more for me to left to say. Considering the current environment, you can see how we started the first quarter, JPY 300 billion for this fiscal year. We definitely want to achieve this. Also, on the other hand, we want to continue to invest so that we can continue to grow into the next fiscal year as well. We appreciate your kind support. Please watch us. I'm sure that you have many more questions, and our team will be happy to respond to any questions you may have. Thank you very much again for your kind participation.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. That concludes the first quarter, earnings announcement. Thank you very much for your kind participation.