ORIX - Q3 2023
February 6, 2023
Transcript
Yoshihiro Nakane (IR Sustainability Department)
Start. Good evening, and thank you for joining us for this telephone conference of ORIX Corporation for the Q3 consolidated financial results for the nine-month period ending December 31, 2022. I'm from IR Sustainability. My name is Nakane. I'll be the master of ceremony for today. Thank you for this opportunity. Today's conference is attended by Hitomaro Yano, Executive Officer responsible for accounting and IR. We would like to ask the participants to kindly either turn off your mobile phone or other communication devices or move them away from the telephone in order to prevent feedback. Mr. Yano will give a presentation followed by Q&A, and we expect this meeting to take about 1 hour. Mr. Yano, the floor is yours.
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
Hi. ORIX.
Good afternoon. This is Hitomaro Yano, Executive Officer responsible for accounting and IR. Thank you for joining us in this financial results briefing today, despite your busy schedule. I will begin by explaining the results for the Q3 of fiscal year ending March 2023. Please refer to page two of the materials on hand. I will first review the executive summary. Please note that net income for the first nine months of the fiscal year was JPY 211.4 billion, although it was only several JPY million, we did manage to record year-over-year growth. Annualized ROE was 8.6%. Net income for the Q3 increased by 50% from the Q2.
This was ORIX's 2nd highest quarterly net income since the pandemic started following the 4th quarter of the previous fiscal year, in which we recorded an investment gain on the sale of Yayoi. Thanks to progress in the opening, businesses that have been strongly impacted by COVID-19 are continuing to recover towards higher profits. The insurance segment also experienced a significant decrease in COVID-19 related payout expenses compared to the 1st half of the year. I would like to highlight on capital recycling. In the 2nd half of the fiscal year, we've continued to both make new investment and realize exit, mainly in our focus businesses of overseas renewable energy and domestic PE. Through this, we are increasing profitability by replacing assets. The 4th key point is shareholders return.
Last May, we approved a share buyback program of JPY 50 billion and have already completed the acquisition and cancellation of 23.43 million shares, which is approximately 2% of our outstanding shares. We plan to pay back dividends for the full year, as previously indicated. Please refer to page three for 3rd quarter FY 2023 March end ORIX recorded sharp increase of 50% versus 2nd quarter for the quarterly net income. The aforementioned recovery in the insurance segment played a part, while strong performance at Transtrend in ORIX Europe led to booking of a performance fee. The partial sale of our stake in leading geothermal energy producer Ormat in the environment and energy segment also contributed. Please turn to page four. The page shows breakdown of segment profit.
Nine-month segment profit was at JPY 290.7 billion. Please see the bar chart on the right. The breakdown of quarterly segment profit for the past two years is shown. Net income for the Q3 increased 15% year-on-year and 44% quarter-on-quarter to JPY 120.7 billion. Please look at the left-hand side bar chart, where you can see that investment gains for the fiscal year have returned to a usual level. I'll explain the details on individual segment pages later. Please turn to page five. This page describes the earnings improvement due to progress in reopening of the economy. The bar chart on the left shows the trend in segment profit for the three COVID-impacted businesses of aircraft and ships, facility operations, and concessions.
In the Q4 of the previous fiscal year, we posted losses of JPY 11.2 billion, but a steady recovery in profits thereafter resulted in a positive JPY 5.6 billion in segment profits for the Q3. In aircraft and ships, the passenger markets in North America and Europe remain strong, and aircraft leasing profits are in an up trend. Hotels, inns, and other facility operations have recently achieved an occupancy rate of about 80%, thanks in part to the government's nationwide travel support program, and ADR has mostly recovered to FY 20 March levels. In the concession business, the number of progress on international routes has increased rapidly following the Japanese government's easing of border measures in October 2022.
Kansai Airport's results are reflected in ORIX's group's earnings with a three-month lag, we expect a full fresh recovery in profits to take place in the next fiscal year. Based on the current number of passengers, we believe that we are within striking range of returning to black. We expect further improvement in performance in all our COVID-impacted businesses as travelers from China return. Please refer to the following page for a summary of the trends in recovery indicators for each businesses. The bar chart on the right shows the trend in segment profit for insurance. Payouts to policyholders with COVID increase and segment profit fell to JPY 2.1 billion in the Q2, particularly in the wake of the seventh wave peak of infections. The eligibility criteria for receiving benefits were changed from late September 2022.
Only policyholders meeting certain conditions are now eligible for payouts for quarantining at home. As a result, payout expenses have declined from the Q3 and profits have recovered. Please turn to page 7. Next, I will comment about capital recycling, which supports our sustainable growth. Capital recycling involves constant monitoring of capital efficiency, making exits in assets and businesses as needed while continually making new investments. This will increase earnings growth rate and that lead to improved ROA and in turn ROE. The box on the left shows exits and new investments in the overseas renewable energy business. As I mentioned earlier, in the Q3, we sold 7.8% of 19.7% stake in Ormat shares in the marketplace, resulting in a gain of about JPY 15 billion.
In addition to retaining 10% or more of Ormat shares, we will continue to dispatch outside directors to support further growth of the business. We plan to acquire the remaining 20% of Elawan where we acquired an 80% stake in July 2021 and make it a wholly owned subsidiary in the Q4 of 2023. As a result, we will be able to make more flexible and swift decisions regarding business and financial strategies such as acquisition or new business development. The box on the right shows exits and new investment in the domestic PE business.
In 2014, we acquired a major precious metal recycling company called NET JAPAN, which we sold in a trade sale in the Q3. We achieved a high return on the deal of MOIC of 3 times and a 16.4% of IRR. In addition, as recently announced, we acquired a majority stake in DHC, a leading Japanese manufacturer of cosmetics and health foods. By promoting the smooth succession of DHC's businesses, further strengthening its compliance system, corporate governance, and implementing a new growth strategy, we aim to increase its corporate value while enhancing profitability and achieve an IRR of at least 20%. Page 8 and page 9 are a summary of segment information. Today, I will explain it by using the specific slides for each segment. Please go all the way to page 12.
The first segment is the corporate financial services and maintenance leasing segment. Segment profit decreased 9% year-over-year to JPY 56.4 billion. Excluding the sale of Yayoi in FY 2022 and investment and valuation gains on an investee recorded in the previous fiscal year, segment profit increased. In corporate financial services, service revenues increased from the previous fiscal year due to strong performance in various fee businesses. The auto unit posted a year-over-year increase in segment profit versus the pre-previous year, when it achieved a record high. This was thanks to the continued higher market, high market price for used car and the recovery in car rentals for the pandemic, from the pandemic slump. Rentec posted record high profits as well. Now please see page 14. The page shows real estate segment.
The investment and operation unit saw an increase in profits due to improved earnings at hotels and inns, thanks to progress in reopening, as I explained earlier. In Daikyo, profits declined versus the previous year as the number of condominium units delivered in FY 2022, 22 skewed to the first half of the fiscal year, earnings in line with the full year forecast. In real estate, too, we operate a capital recycling type business model whereby we procure and develop land by ourselves, lease our property, and then sell it at the right time in the market. Please see page 16. Key investment and concessions. The key investment unit posted a loss in the previous fiscal year due to losses at Kobayashi Kako, but the investment portfolio has been solid for this fiscal year.
Even excluding losses related to Kobayashi Kako, segment profits increased. This shrunk the loss. Again, I expect earnings to grow at an accelerating pace as earnings are already on recovery track and inbound tourists from China begin to arrive in the earnest. Please see page 18. This is environment and energy segment. Profit increased 86% year-on-year to JPY 34.1 billion. As I explained, in addition to the partial sale of stake in a third company, we also benefited from higher electricity spot prices in some overseas regions, which led to higher electricity sales revenues. In the domestic market, sales increased in the solar power generation business due to the continued fine weather.
We expect the global shift towards renewable energy to accelerate, partly due to the prolonged war in Russia and Ukraine. We are already operating 3.4 gigawatt energy production facilities in Japan and abroad, and we plan to grow this to 10 gigawatt by the fiscal year ending March 2030. In addition to Elawan, we will help Greenko, a major Indian renewable energy company, where we hold a 20% stake to develop its under pipeline. Please turn to page 20, insurance segment. As I mentioned, profit decreased compared the previous year due to an increase in COVID-19 related payout expenses for patients isolating at home. Meanwhile, since last September of last year, eligibility for benefits has been limited to those with high risk of severe symptoms.
We expect the COVID-19 related expenses peaked out in the first half of this year. The number of policies in force has continued to increase and the premium income has risen. In addition, asset management has seen steady results and investment income have been increasing. Segment assets decreased. This is marks to market and the rise in both Japanese and US dollar interest rates resulting in a lower valuation. However, the market value of debt has also declined since the duration of policy reserves of or excess liabilities is longer than that of assets. The rise of interest rates, particularly in yen, has been a positive embedded for embedded value.
In other words, interest rate rise and carrier revenues rise faster than increasing insurance expenses and profits increase. Please turn to page 22. Banking and credit banking unit revenue from real estate loans for investment continued to be firm despite the absence of a one-time profit booked for the previous year. In the credit business, we actively invest in advertising to develop a new ORIX MONEY product, which resulted in decline in profits. Performance is in line with expectations and loan balance is increasing. Please turn to page 24. Aircraft and ship segment profit increased to JPY 14.2 billion year-on-year to JPY 17 billion. As mentioned, the aircraft leasing business has the benefits from rebound from passenger markets, particularly North America and Europe. In addition to leasing revenues, service revenue from aircraft asset management is a strength and it grew.
Avolon earnings are also on the upward trend, reducing its losses. Please note that the financing costs from investing in Avolon are included in the profit report. The ship unit boosted earnings, partly reflecting the sale on ships in response to favorable market prices as well as financial income from ship financing deals. Please turn to page 26. ORIX USA. Segment profit fell sharply from the previous year, when it achieved a record high to JPY 33 billion. The decline was primarily due to fewer PE exits caused by changes in the macro climate and the origination fees, and in the real estate lending from Lument. Capital gains improved in the Q2 and Q3 compared to Q1. Please turn to page 27.
We currently in the process of adjusting the risk controls OCU in light of the uncertain economic outlook in the U.S. We have strengthened our governance framework in order to achieve additional growth in our asset management business utilizing invested capital such as establishing asset management investment oversight committee in addition to the investment committee. The asset quality of ORIX USA is sound. It appears that the yen-denominated assets have increased due to the FX effect, we aim to keep the asset size to a certain level and the dollar-denominated asset has actually declined. Please turn to page 29. This is ORIX Europe. Segment profit fell 36% year-on-year to JPY 35.9 billion as a result of decline in UN, which hit a record high in the previous fiscal year due to impact of vigor financial markets.
Meanwhile, in the Q3, Transtrend, a CTA asset management firm, recorded performance fees, which resulted in high significant increase in profits in the Q2. The asset management business we have diversified and each company has a distinct management style. In addition to Transtrend, Boston Partners, which is strong value investment, is also performing well. Please turn to page 32. Asia and Australia segment profit decreased 3% compared to the previous year to JPY 34.1 billion amid the ongoing reopening in Asian countries. We expected new deals and in India and Indonesia, in addition to Australia and South Korea, and the decline profit is due to absence of gain on sale of the previous fiscal year. This completes the segment. Please turn to page 10.
With regard to shareholder return, our basic policy is to distribute 1/3 of net income to dividends, 1/3 to new investments and the remainder to retained earnings and the share buybacks. Dividends for the current fiscal year is JPY 85.6 or dividend payout ratio of 33%, whichever is higher. However, the dividend payout ratio will be 40%, assuming the net income forecast announced November last year of JPY 250 billion can be achieved, including the share buyback of JPY 50 billion. The total payout ratio is 60% for this fiscal year. I would like to talk about the credit ratings. Last week, S&P reduced the outlook from Stable to Negative to reflect our execution of investment to in DHC.
Although the downgrade itself is a undesired change from our perspective, we undertake thorough risk management of our portfolio and plan to proceed with our capital recycling strategy while both maintaining and strengthening the financials. By providing appropriate information disclosure to rating agencies, we hope to improve mutual understanding. Meanwhile, please note that the rating action will not affect the basic policy of our shareholder returns. Lastly, we understand that the economic environment continues to be uncertain worldwide, and strengthening the risk management system is important. Nonetheless, we do see some bright news on the horizon, such as the progress of reopening around the world, including Japan. In the domestic PE and other fields, we are seeing numerous inquiries for potential investments, including large projects.
While maintaining a cautious and selective stance, we intend to actively seek investment opportunities towards achieving the midterm goal of that we announced last May, which is net income of JPY 440 billion and 11.7% ROE in the fiscal year ending March 2025. Thank you very much for your kind attention. Now the floor is open for questions.
Yoshihiro Nakane (IR Sustainability Department)
Thank you. We are now ready for the Q&A session. If you wish to ask a question, please press the star key then press One on your telephone keypad. After your name is announced, please ask your question. If you wish to cancel the question, please press the star key then press Two. If you wish to ask a question, you may ask up to one question, please. Thank you. The first person is from Nomura Securities. Sakamoto, please.
Speaker 8
Thank you very much. My name is Sakamoto from Nomura Securities. Thank you for the opportunity. Now, I would like to ask you a question. At this time, the Ormat, the holding that are remaining, I think you're going to be holding on to 10% or more stake. Is your strategy or I believe that it is the expression of your intent in retaining the rest of the 10% or more. Also with regard to geothermal energy, I read an article saying that there has been some changes in the earnings. If you could be so kind enough to tell us your involvement and also your intent in the geothermal businesses.
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
As to Ormat, this time we've sold about 80% of the stake, and I think we would like to maintain the rest of the stake for the time being. The capital recycling, in fact, is a strategy that we're pursuing as we have been explaining.
I don't know how long we will be retaining the shares, but for the time being, we'd like to hold on to it. The reason why we have decided to sell 8% of the stake is because for the reason of this capital recycling. In the areas of geothermal, yes, we are trying to engage ourselves in the geothermal businesses here in Japan. It's getting consent, the approval is not that easy because you need to, of course, excavate. There seems to be not very many deals that you can engage yourself in. On the other hand, renewable energy of course, is remaining to be strong with the share price being steady as well. Therefore, we have decided to set up some stake of Ormat and post some capital gain.
We use the capital that we have gained from the sales of Ormat and dedicate the capital to renewable energy elsewhere. This is the decision that we have made. Talking about renewable energy businesses, for sure we have every intent in wanting to expand our businesses in the renewable energy. It doesn't mean to say that we quit our idea on the geothermal, but it's just that we have decided to make a selection and the concentration. Elawan, of course, is 100% Greenko. The new development is going to be proceeded and for the time being. There could perhaps be a possibility of M&A of new renewable energy related businesses. I hope this answers your question.
Speaker 8
Yes. Thank you very much. That was very helpful.
Yoshihiro Nakane (IR Sustainability Department)
Thank you. Suzuki-san from BofA Securities, please.
Speaker 2
Yes. This is Suzuki from Bank of America. Just one question. Thank you for this opportunity. We're now in February and next fiscal year's business plan must be probably formulated within the organization. At this point in time, how do you see the fiscal year ending March 2024 in terms of business as well as performance? As much as you can share with us. Thank you.
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
Yes. With regard to next fiscal year's numbers, we were hoping to talk about that in May when we conduct our next earnings call. JPY 250 billion for the fiscal year is the number that we have announced, and we want to achieve JPY 440 billion in two years time. Compared to two years ago when we formulated this plan, of course, the environment is different now. Last May, how much profit in 2-3 years? I think we showed you our outlook, but we may have to revisit these assumptions, and that's exactly what we're doing right now. Looking into the next two years, we would like to share some of the information about next fiscal year in coming May. Well, recovery from COVID-19 is in sight, which is positive news.
According to the original plan, we were not really expecting a big number for next fiscal year. We may be able to expect a little bit more than before. That is one thing that I can say. Insurance revenue or income may be one of those potential positive factors. Including those, we will have to take another look at the fiscal year. Please wait. Be patient with us. Wait until May. Thank you.
Speaker 2
I understand that at the full year earnings announcement you can give us more specifics. What about the confidence for the JPY 440 billion? Have you changed the confidence level?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
Level of confidence is very difficult to talk about, but, we will do our best to achieve the objective, and we are discussing, exactly how we can do that. That is unchanged.
Speaker 2
Thank you very much for your answer.
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
Master.
Yoshihiro Nakane (IR Sustainability Department)
Yes. Thank you very much. From SMBC Nikko Securities, Muraki-san, please.
Speaker 9
Going away from the financial earnings, DHC, I know that you had completed your acquisition, as you had explained. If you could be so kind enough to give us a little more color. IRR of 10% as compared to that. Last year's profit level was still lower than your expectation. Any kind of wasteful waste that you can see and that you foresee making improvements? How would you be able to realize the turnaround of the profit generation going forward?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
JPY 300 billion or so, that is. One thing that I can say for sure at this point in time, they do have a current asset which is pretty ample, so we would very much like to make use of that as well. We don't think this JPY 300 billion is a higher price that we have paid. Talking about this company, DHC, from the prior owner of the business, the chairperson, we have succeeded the businesses. They have not been making use of advertisement and promotional cost very much, so we would very much like to concentrate our effort in that as well. We can foresee ourselves rolling out the businesses in the overseas location as well. These are in our plan. On the other hand, we need to, of course, reinforce governance.
Therefore, our making use of our, of course, manpower as well, that is, in, of course, improving the businesses. That's our plan. Means in the next fiscal period, the cost tends to increase, which means that the profit level is not something that we can expect to improve in the next year.
Speaker 9
Also, financially speaking, JPY 300 billion was appropriated for the acquisition, but the cash, in fact, is held at the company, that could be paid out as a dividend to ORIX in the short run, do you think?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
Yes. Yes.
Speaker 9
The first point that you have made is true as well.
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
Yes, we would very much like to incur some costs in order to improve the businesses, so I don't know how much of a profit that we will be able to generate in the first year of their acquisition. But, of course, we would have to pay for the due diligence cost as well. There will be some negative, or rather costs that we would have to incur in the first year. But we would like to, of course, take a little more time in turning around the businesses for the better.
Speaker 9
Thank you very much.
Yoshihiro Nakane (IR Sustainability Department)
Thank you. Daiwa Securities, Watanabe-san, please ask your question.
Speaker 4
Yes, this is Watanabe, Daiwa Securities. Profit, progressing at high level, what would be the impact and also the confidence? I think, every year through the Q4, you were doing some measures, and you talked about risk management. Are there any things that we should be careful about going into the Q4? Do you think the current situation would impact the capital allocation in any way, except for exceeding the JPY 332.1 billion?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
I'm sorry. Can you please repeat the last part of the question once again?
Speaker 4
The dividend policy, if you are going to upgrade the dividend, you have to basically exceed the previous year's profit. If there is going to be something good if you overshoot or do much better than the profit from last year or against the target?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
I'm sorry, what was the first question?
Speaker 4
About the Q4.
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
I'm sorry. Well, we will just continue to account for impairment, as we usually do in a steady manner. It's not as if we will do something special the Q4, but in the Q2 and Q4, generally speaking, we tend to see these numbers come up. It's not as if there is no impairment, no write-off right now. Of course, we are doing so many different things, and we will continue to see some level of a write-off, but we have not really identified any big potential issue so far. That is the current situation. There will be some here and there. That is the current situation. That's the first question's answer.
Now, as far as dividend is concerned, 33% or previous, year's number, whichever is higher, that is what we communicated for this fiscal year. This will stay the same. This will be unchanged. That's all I can say to you. Will that be okay?
Speaker 4
Yes. Thank you. Thank you for your answer.
Yoshihiro Nakane (IR Sustainability Department)
Thank you very much. Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Tsujino-san, please.
Speaker 7
Well, first of all, with regard to the U.S., if you could be so kind enough to give me some idea as to your approach right now. I think that there are some losses of JPY 10.5 billion from the securities that was held, and on the other hand, there's JPY 4.2 billion of profit. I was looking into these perhaps noises, and the segmental profit is about JPY 5.1 billion, and it was lower than the Q1, but then higher than April to June. This sales, the impairment loss that was posted, where did it come from? Also, in actual fact, how's the business like right now? Lument, how is it like towards 2023 March end? How would it perform going forward?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
On page 27, if you could refer to page 27 then. Just as you have mentioned, PE investment, the capital gain has been generated from some PE investment. I would like to refrain from mentioning the actual specific names. There are bits and pieces of PE investment that we have made and generated some capital gains from. As you have said, the appropriation of that was made. There are two. A specific appropriation of reserves and also see-through. When we change some outlook of the future, we may have to add some more reserves. Referring to page 27, the credit, the base profit had declined as a result of the reserves that we had to increase and the others that affected our performance.
Real estate endowment, and also we call it as BFIM, in other words, Boston Financial, for low income bracket people. We develop housing and we securitize it. These deals, in fact, will create some ups and downs. Therefore, there has been some, as I say, ups and downs in our earnings as a result. The Q1 was the bottom, and we did manage to recover from the bottom somewhat. The real estate loomint, in fact, has not fully recovered yet, and that is because of the interest rate being pretty kind of volatile. We have to see it settling down. We're not worried about credit very much, though.
Of course, we would have to have a conservative outlook for so far as the reserve appropriation is concerned, but there is nothing major that concerns us. As for PE investment, there are some, I think actions that will be taken, whether these actions will be taken in the Q4 or in the next fiscal period. There will be certain amount of exits as well. Towards the next fiscal period, how much more can we improve the earnings is yet to be known, but for sure, we are aiming to increase the profit. On the other hand, as to the U.S. businesses, as I had shared a little earlier, we don't particularly intend to increase the asset in a dramatic way.
Just like OCE, the public asset, not in public asset management businesses, but the fund formation and all that, more than before, we would very much like to increase the businesses, not in a dramatic manner, but thereby, of course, recover the business of ORIX USA. That is our idea. I hope this answers your question.
Speaker 7
Yes, yes. Well, talking about the vehicles, the transportation equipment, you in fact shared that you did manage to post some profit from selling ships, the vessels, but you have not shared very many kind of details.
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
Avolon, yes, that is held on equity method. That is okay. Other like, you know, gain on sales, for those assets, I think it would be helpful if you could be so kind enough to share us a little more details. From that perspective, with regard to ships, at this point in time, there are some extraordinary factors that needs to be taken into account, because ships, after all, every year on a continued basis, you know, we don't, you know, we would be able to generate profit on a constant basis, but rather we would, kind of approach it in a conservative manner, and if they were ever possible, we would try to generate profit. For ships, I don't know how to explain, but, for this fiscal period, maybe several JPY billion. Several JPY billion, I would say, for ships.
Speaker 7
This fiscal period, you mean for 3 months of this fiscal period, for this quarter?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
No, for the full year, I mean.
Speaker 7
For full year, several billions of yen. Several billions of yen for the full year, meaning that I think you're talking about the little more sizable business, right?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
It's not a big size, somewhere in the middle. If you could be so kind enough to understand where we're coming from. This fiscal period, as compared to the first half, it will be smaller than the first half in any case. Is that what you're saying?
Speaker 7
Yes. For the transportation equipment, the recovery of the business?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
It is not affected by the primary reasons. May I take it?
Speaker 7
What do you mean by or one time reasons?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
One time reasons. In other words, you know, sales. In other words, you are recovering in the businesses as opposed to the gain on sales. I don't know how to express this. Like Daikyo's condominium, sales of condominium, whether you would regard that to be a gain on investment. Because after all, you know, like aircraft, like in the case of JAL, you know, we do sell to Japanese investors as well as funds, and we regard that to be our ordinary businesses, and that is recovering for sure. In the case of aircraft leasing, of course, rates are recovering, and also we are selling some of the aircraft as well, and the fees are increasing as well. Those are improving. On the other hand, ships.
Gain on sales of ships may perhaps, you know, may perhaps be generated bit by bit in this year as well as in the next. JAL sales. You would not like to describe it to be gain on sales, but those are included as well, may I take it?
Speaker 7
Yes. Okay. Thank you very much.
Yoshihiro Nakane (IR Sustainability Department)
Thank you very much. J.P. Morgan Securities, Otsuka-san, please.
Speaker 5
Yes. Thank you. JP Morgan, Otsuka speaking. Page 5, reopening update until recently is shown. For the midterm information previously, the segment profit for the full year was JPY 60 billion for the fiscal year ending March 2025. What is the confidence? Do you think is the progress steady and as expected? Even if it's a qualitative assessment, if you could share that with us, that would be great.
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
Yes. We want to recover to this level by fiscal year ending March 2025. We did have our concerns, but in this fiscal year, the recovery started at a faster pace than we expected, although it's not sufficient yet. For next year, we believe that the number will be a bit better than what we announced last May. Hopefully in 2 years' time, we can achieve JPY 60 billion or even higher, if possible. The speed of recovery is a little bit faster than we had originally anticipated.
Speaker 5
Concession and the aircrafts and ships both?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
Yes, that's correct.
Speaker 5
The hotels and inns as well?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
Oh, I see. Hotels and inns, unfortunately, the ratio against the total profit is relatively small, so that recovery will not contribute to a great extent. This is domestic and this is something that we can feel firsthand that there is a recovery happening.
Speaker 5
Understand. Thank you.
Yoshihiro Nakane (IR Sustainability Department)
Thank you. The next is from Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities, Nagasaka-san, please.
Speaker 6
Hello, this is Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. Nagasaka is my name. Thank you very much for this opportunity. On page 32, Asia as well as Australia, I would like to ask some questions. As a result of reopening, I know that the new execution is underway in Asia. In the first half, considering risk, I thought that you are not executing new investment, but in which area of Asia are you engaging yourself in new businesses and also the outlook going forward? Also, if you were to exclude gain on investment, if you could be so kind enough to share us your outlook as well in Asia.
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
Asia, Korea, in fact, has been pretty steady. We have been increasing our asset in Korea. On the asset base, rather, we did reduce it dramatically because, you see, unless you carry through new investment, it would continue to decline in any case. We were refraining from making new investment. Like Indonesia or, and other areas, but we are now back in scene. In other words, we are increasing the new investment.
Speaker 6
In which area?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
More specifically, those kind of countries that I have just mentioned. As for ourselves in Asian region, we want to make sure that we would continue to base ourselves on leasing and increase our profit thereby. Of course, we are making investment as well in China, Greater China, I mean, not just mainland China, but we are making some investment.
We would of course foresee ourselves exiting from those businesses on the other hand as well. Whether we will be happy to be making a new investment in China, I think we would remain to be pretty cautious. In Asia as well as in Australia, we are very much looking forward to making new investment. That's about it. I hope this answers your question.
Speaker 6
Yes. Thank you very much.
Yoshihiro Nakane (IR Sustainability Department)
Thank you. Citigroup Securities, Miwa-san, please. Thank you. This is Miwa from Citi.
Speaker 3
I have a question about M&A pipeline. According to the material used in the midterm announcement, for the second half of next year, you had JPY 400 billion planned and, JPY 300 billion, I think, may be invested. Should we, consider this pipeline still being built?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
Well, frankly, we are getting more and more new deals, which means. Well, it's maybe lower than JPY 300 billion, but it's rebuilding once again. We don't do everything and anything. We apply a cautious view, but also, at the same time, we are adding more and more new deals into the pipeline while applying a cautious view.
Speaker 3
As far as DHC is concerned, since it is a sizable investment and certain number of people will be allocated and the management will be done also appropriately. That's the current situation. If you could comment. DHC, I think this is a little bit different from your traditional investments. Using DHC as a trigger, do you think that will make a difference in terms of sourcing of deals and expanse of the deals? Do you think it is basically the same as a traditional project? Can you maybe talk about the difference before and after DHC, if you can share some comments?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
Depending on the size, of course, the players differ in any market. Several tens of billions was the size that we have been doing, and now we are doing one that is a little bit bigger. It's not necessarily a question of whether it's a change. Anyway, we do this, and if it's successful, maybe we'll do more of those. We want to continuously expand our business, and this is the first step towards that. That's how we see it.
Yoshihiro Nakane (IR Sustainability Department)
That was very informative. Thank you. Thank you very much. UBS Securities, Okada-san, please.
Speaker 10
I am Okada from UBS Securities. I have 1 question. As you have mentioned earlier, your outlook for USA, I would like you to follow up a bit. I know that you are becoming a little more stringent in the control of businesses, but the segment, the profit of JPY 10 billion or JPY 105 billion is expected as well. This profit fork outlook and also the risk management, how do you strike the right balance between the two? Going forward, like PE, credit, real estate, what is your idea in the effort that you'll be exerting in those areas? Please give us some more color. Yes.
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
As you have mentioned, as of today, the profit that has declined, we don't think, you know, the question of course you had asked is only I think justifiable. I think in a two years, whether we'll be able to recover back to JPY 105 billion or not, is to be questioned. We would not like to kind of change the split. Well, if at all possible, we'd like to of course grow the businesses. Whether we are going to give up on the businesses in U.S., that is the answer to the question would be no.
Although we will be become more, a little more stringent in terms of risk management, but we are continuing in the asset management businesses and the PE as well as credit and real estate businesses. Of course, making use of other people's capital and using the leverage, we would very much like to continue to generate profit. We would, of course, continue to uphold such strategy and the risk management on the one hand. Even if you were to talk about asset management, we mean by broader sense of asset management. Making use of other people's capital, in other words, or incorporating other people's capital, we would very much like to continue pursuing our strategy.
At this point in time, there is nothing that we will be able to kind of show as the evidence of the success of this strategy, but we would very much like to continue to pursue this way. Thank you very much.
Yoshihiro Nakane (IR Sustainability Department)
Thank you. The floor is open for questions. Again, if you have a question, please press asterisk and one. Asset Management One. Nomura-san, please ask your question. Again, Asset Management One, Nomura-san, please ask your question if you're ready. The floor is open for questions. If you wish to ask a question, please press asterisk and one. My apologies. Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Tsujino-san, please.
Speaker 7
Yes, thank you. In the beginning of the year, there was an optimistic comment, and then in August, it was basically reversed. In the second half, the sentiment was similar once again. I know that you have seen some exits after a lot of efforts having been made. From summer until now, with regard to exits, has there been any change in terms of your sense for these exits? Maybe you're not too optimistic yet, but you may be able to exit from some of the projects. Can you give me a sense of how you feel about the general direction of these exits?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
In this fiscal year, yes, there was a slowdown in the United States, as you know. We had some investments. Last year, we didn't really have to do anything, and they basically sold one after the other. Unfortunately, within this fiscal year, the situation is very different. Other than that, for domestic real estate, the situation continues to be positive. Domestic PE investments, about how to increase the value and also, who would be the potential buyers, we try to figure those things out, and we spend a certain amount of time on those.
I don't think that these situations have deteriorated that much. Also aviation is coming back. It's recovering. The sense, general sense is quite positive, quite good. I understand that there may have been some concerns, but we will continue to work on our exits, and we believe that we can do them. In the next fiscal year as well, we can expect certain number of exits happening. I would like to emphasize once again that capital recycling is what we do, what we promote. It's not just increasing the number of investment randomly. We continue to recycle to make ourselves stronger and more profitable. We will continue to work on our exit plan, and we do not have any specific concerns about that right now. I hope that answers your question.
Speaker 7
In the United States and also in Asia, you have some gain on valuation of the funds. Asia is small, but I understand that the situation is improving. In terms of gain on valuation, is there anything that we can hear from you today?
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
We're not doing the valuation of the funds ourselves, so we cannot really talk about the gain or positive aspects of that. We do have some funds, mostly overseas, and we just receive that assessment or evaluation, and we just reflect that into numbers. I don't think that would have a huge impact on our general performance. Looking at those numbers, maybe it's possible to talk about a certain trend. It's not extremely positive. Negative, excuse me. Thank you.
Yoshihiro Nakane (IR Sustainability Department)
Thank you very much for your answer. Thank you very much. We are still waiting for more questions. Please put your questions forward if you have any. There seems to be no more questions. We would like to end the Q&A session. Yano is going to provide closing remarks.
Hitomaro Yano (Executive Officer, Accounting and IR)
Once again, I would like to thank all of you to have joined us in this briefing session. We did manage to generate some profit, a pretty good profit in the Q3. Going forward, we would like to continue to further our effort in building our profit more. Please continue to watch our the development of our businesses. As of today, if there was to be any further questions, by all means, please contact our IR department.
Yoshihiro Nakane (IR Sustainability Department)
We're happy to, of course, answer to your questions on an individual basis. With this, we'd like to conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. Thank you for your participation right to the end. You may now.