ORIX - Q4 2023

Transcript

Sachiko Nakane (Master of Ceremony of IR and Sustainability)

It's time to start the meeting. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining this telephone conference by ORIX Corporation for consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31st, 2023. From IR Sustainability, my name is Nakane. I'm the Master of Ceremony today. Thank you for this opportunity. We have two attendees today. Makoto Inoue, Member of the Board of Directors, President, Executive Officer, and CEO. Hitomaro Yano, Executive Officer responsible for accounting and IR. Before we begin, we have a request for the participants. In order to prevent feedback, if you have a communication device such as mobile phone, please turn it off or move it away from the telephone. Mr. Yano will take the first half, and second half will be taken by Mr. Inoue, followed by Q&A.

We expect the duration of the meeting to be approximately one hour. Mr. Yano?

Makoto Inoue (Member of the Board of Directors, President, Executive Officer, and CEO)

Good evening. This is Hitomaro Yano, Executive Officer responsible for accounting and treasury and investor relations at ORIX. Thank you so much for joining us today despite your busy schedule. Let me start by giving an overview of FY2023 March end results. Please turn to page two. Net income fell 12% year-over-year to JPY 273.1 billion. For FY2023 March, it was disappointing to see earnings decline, but we substantially exceeded our forecast of JPY 250 billion announced on 7th November . ROE was at 8.2%. The right-hand chart shows quarterly trend in net income. Fourth quarter net income was JPY 61.7 billion. Investment gains and asset management fees from ORIX Europe fell as compared to the 3rd quarter.

As we booked some impairments in the fourth quarter, growth was less evident than in the first quarter and the second quarter, but progress in reopening has helped a solid trend for the quarter. Please turn to the next page. This is a breakdown of segment profits. Segment profits totaled JPY 381.3 billion, down 28% year-over-year. Please look at the left-hand chart, which shows trends in segment profits. The light blue bar indicates investment gains, while the dark blue bar shows base profits. Base profits fell by 13% year-over-year to JPY 297.8 billion, while performance among segments varied. Overall, we were able to secure stable base profits despite an opaque operating climate. I will go into further details later.

The light blue investment gains were down 55% year-over-year to JPY 83.5 billion, owing to the absence of last year's substantial gain on the sale, sales of Yayoi. ORIX typically books investment gains of around JPY 100 billion each year. Even in a tough environment, we were able to continue our effort of capital recycling and maintain a level of investment gains mostly on par with that of a normal year through the partial sales of our OMAT stake and logistics centers. Please turn to page four and five. These are segment earnings. Here we have broken down segment profits and assets by segment. This will give you a broad view of each segment, and the details can be found from page 18 onwards in the presentation deck. I'll focus on an overview for now.

First is the corporate financial services and maintenance leasing segment. Segment profits reached JPY 73.2 billion. Excluding the sales of Yayoi booked last fiscal year, profits were up. The auto business unit reported profits that surpassed FY 2023 to March, which was a record high, bolstered by continued strong market for used cars and the recovery in rental car demand from pandemic lows. In the corporate financial services unit, fee income was strong and demand for rental equipment at Rentech is growing. For segment assets, while assets in the auto unit fell owing to a shortage of new vehicle supply, assets in corporate financial services increased as the unit selectively added new deals. Overall assets were almost flat year-over-year. Real estate. Segment profit rose JPY 19.5 billion year-over-year to JPY 51.5 billion.

The development and rental unit posted profit growth fueled by sales of logistics facilities, primarily to overseas investors. With the specific operation business, hotels and inns, both occupancy and average daily rate recovered sharply thanks to recovery in inbound tourism and national travel support campaigns. The DAIKYO unit also posted higher profits year-over-year. Segment assets were up JPY 24.9 billion, despite property sales, offsetting some new investments. Next is PE Investment and Concession. Segment profits improved by JPY 14.3 billion year-over-year to JPY 2.6 billion. The private equity business in Japan was in the red last fiscal year, owing to Kobayashi Kako-related losses.

An end to measures related to the business and strong performance in current investees helped the business return to the black, despite booking due diligence costs related to the recent DHC acquisition in the fourth quarter. In the concession business, passenger numbers are growing on both domestic and international flights, helping losses to shrink. According to data recently released by Kansai Airports, passengers on international routes exceeding 1 million for the first time in three years since February 2020 on a single month basis in March 2023. Domestic routes also reached 2.35 million passengers, 99% of March 2019 level, showing the strongest recovery to date since the start of the pandemic.

Inbound tourism should begin to recover in earnest as Japan significantly reduced travel restrictions for Chinese tourists last month. Earnings from the concession units are reflected in group results with a three-month lag, so we expect considerable growth in profit for this business in FY 2024 March. Segment assets were up JPY 251.9 billion year-over-year as a result of the acquisition of DHC and HEXEL Works that offset the sale of Net Japan.

Sachiko Nakane (Master of Ceremony of IR and Sustainability)

In environment and energy business, segment profits were up JPY 32.6 billion-JPY 35.7 billion. In addition to the partial sale of our stake in geothermal energy company Ormat, higher prices in the electricity spot market at Era One, which became a fully consolidated subsidiary for Q4 and other firms led to growth in revenue from power sales. Domestic energy, the solar power business also saw higher revenues.

Segment assets grew substantially owing to changes in Forex and additional stakes taken in Era One, up by JPY 70 billion versus end of FY 2022. In insurance, segment profits were down JPY 15.3 billion to JPY 38 billion. Rising infection rates for COVID earlier in the fiscal year resulted in an increase in COVID-related payouts, causing a major drag on earnings.

Changes implemented since last September means that only patients at high risk of serious complications are eligible for policy payouts while sitting at home, and payout-related expenses have since peaked and declined as a result. Japanese government revoked classification of COVID as a Category five infectious disease from May sixth means that policyholders are no longer able to make claims from hospitalization insurance policies for in-home isolation regardless of the risk. For this reason, we expect the COVID-related payout to decline dramatically going forward.

Although segment assets were down due to lower valuation of mark-to-market assets affected by higher interest rates of U.S. dollar and Japanese yen, liabilities mark-to-market value also declined, therefore there's no problem. In banking and credit, segment profits were down JPY 3.9 billion to JPY 37.6 billion. In banking, profits were down owing to the absence of a year earlier one-time profit. Earnings from investment real estate loans remained high and healthy. Credit business posted a decline in profits owing to aggressive advertising as a support to the launch of a new ORIX Money product. This is in line with projections and loan balances are steadily increasing in this business and guarantee business is healthy. In aircraft and ships, segment profits were up JPY 20.9 billion year on year to JPY 18.6 billion.

Aircraft and ships reported strong profit growth year-over-year. These revenues rose in the aircraft leasing business, primarily in North America and Europe, but also supported by the delayed recovery in the Asian passenger market. Service revenues from arranging various securitization vehicles among strong investor demand was also positive. Avolon posted Q1 2023 earnings announced at the end of April, up 36% quarter-over-quarter. While the firm posted losses at the segment profit level owing to funding costs charged investment to Avolon, earnings are improving on a market recovery. Ships unit profits were up sharply, aided by sales of owned vessels during periods of strong marine shipping prices and higher contributions from financial revenues from ship financing deals.

Segment assets were flat year-on-year, excluding changes in Forex as sales of vessels was offset by an increase in aircraft acquisitions, primarily narrow body aircraft. We continue to audit portfolio, and we will take a close watch on market conditions. Profits fell sharply at ORIX USA, down $26.6 billion to $49 billion compared to FY 2022, when the segment booked a record profit owing to changes in the macroeconomic climate. There were fewer PE exits and origination fees of Lument, a mortgage originator, was also down. We maintain disciplined risk management at ORIX USA and have taken conservative stance on new investments. Segment assets appear to have increased on year-on-year basis, owing to primarily to changes in Forex. We are controlling the size of the asset base and the dollar-denominated assets are down slightly. Next is ORIX Cube.

Segment profits were down by JPY 8.7 billion to JPY 40.7 billion. Starting in the U.S. interest rates have risen globally, fueling fears of a recession, which led to a retreat in both equity and fixed income markets. This caused AUM to shrink and profits to decline. Net inflows turned positive, however, in the fourth quarter, and AUM has increased. Last is Asia and Australia. Segment profits were down by JPY 16.8 billion year-on-year to JPY 34.3 billion. Profits were lower owing to the absence of investment gains booked last fiscal year and impairments of an affiliate booked in the fourth quarter. As reopening progresses in Asian countries, new business execution is rising steadily in Australia, South Korea, Southeast Asia, as well as in India. Segment assets grew sharply owing to changes in Forex and new execution.

This is going to be my last slide. Please turn to page six. I briefly went over results in different segments, and this graph explains FY 2022 results versus the fiscal year. Our CEO, Mr. Inoue, will explain more in detail that there were strong and weak performance among various segments during FY 2023.

Makoto Inoue (Member of the Board of Directors, President, Executive Officer, and CEO)

Some segments like insurance, ORIX USA and ORIX U posted lower profits owing to COVID and rapid market changes. Meanwhile, some businesses benefited from COVID related reopening and did well. Focus areas for ORIX such as overseas renewable energy and MCPE also grew. Also in the maintenance leasing segment and facility operations were also strong performers. We expect the insurance segment to rebound in FY 2024 and segments that grew and recovered during this fiscal year should achieve further growth. For these reasons, we hope to secure profit growth in FY 2024 and 2025. That's all from me. Now I would like to hand over to Mr. Inoue, our CEO.

I'm Inoue from ORIX. I would like to start from page seven of the handout.

FY 2023 March net income was down 12.5% year-over-year to JPY 273.1 billion. EPS came in at JPY 232.35. For the fiscal year ending March 2023, we will pay a dividend of JPY 85.6 per share, same as the prior year. End of the year dividend, the second half dividend, in other words, will therefore be the same as the first half dividend at JPY 42.8. Taking into the account JPY 50 billion worth of share buyback, ORIX total shareholders return ratio will be 55.2%. Unfortunately, FY 2023 March ROE was 8.3% below our 10% target. We will continue to, however, to work to fulfill this target.

Last March, last May, when we made the announcement of FY 2025 March net income outlook of JPY 440 billion, however, we will need to revise this figure downward in light of current market conditions. We now forecast FY 2024 March net income of JPY 330 billion and revise downwards our FY 2025 March net income target to JPY 400 billion. As a result of this downward revision, ROE will be 2% in 2024 March end and 10.4% for 2025 March end. For 2024 March end, as the shareholders return, we would maintain JPY 50 billion worth of shares buyback and a DPS of JPY 55.6 per share or pay at ratio of 33%, whichever higher.

I would like to further explain, referring to the three pages of six, seven and eight. Firstly, let me briefly discuss 23 March end results. Firstly, let me discuss the primary reason for FY 2023 March net income of JPY 273.1 billion. As mentioned, at the first half results announcement, COVID related payouts expenses, particularly for patients isolating at home, had a substantial negative impact on the life insurance segment. A change in eligibility requirements in September 2022 led to a decline in COVID related payout expenses in the second half. This factor brought JPY 20 billion worth of increase in cost for the whole year.

Secondly, profits at ORIX USA fell by $200 million for the full fiscal year against our initial target due to an increase in credit costs, a slowdown in agency-related transactions for affordable housing and for other reasons. As I said, it was below by $200 million. In addition, management fees fell by EUR 160 million, owing to lower AUM at Robeco Group, which also has a direct impact. Despite the profit, the contributions from the domestic real estate, auto, ships and environment and energy segment and the boost from the weaker yen, overall profits were down unfortunately year-over-year. On a brighter note, we foresee the Kansai Airport concessions business and real estate operations boosting earnings in FY 2024 March, thanks to a strong recovery in inbound tourism following COVID reopening.

The aircraft segment is still on a recovery track. However, higher Eurozone and U.S. interest rates have led to an increase in hedging costs, meaning it will take some time longer before this business contributes significantly to profits. Meanwhile, the outlook for financial markets, including U.S. real estate, is becoming increasingly uncertain following turmoil in the financial system caused by failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the Credit Suisse. Whether the authority will move to prioritize inflation control or stabilization of financial and financial system and uncertainty remains to be seen. Many regional banks have unrealized losses on their commercial real estate portfolios, which could lead to credit downgrades, a rapid increase in interest rates and a collapse in the real estate market. vicious cycle may start, we think.

Experience tells us that financial authorities will most likely search for a soft landing. Nonetheless, given ORIX USA's position in the U.S. we feel the necessity to prepare for a possible increase in credit provisions and funding costs. For FY 2024 March and beyond, we will continue to execute our business with a focus on conservatism and defensiveness until conditions settle down.

In FY 2022 March, ORIX USA reported record high segment profits of $715 million, but this figure fell to $422 million in FY 2023 March. Inflation continues to rise despite higher Fed rate, which unfortunately, drew attention to the negative effects of tighter monetary policy. We have thus judged that it would not be in ORIX's best interest to anticipate strong growth in this business for some time. Against such a backdrop, we have moved to both strengthen management functions and securitize ORIX USA's assets. Our ultimate vision for this business is to build it into a specialist asset like manager utilizing third-party assets, and thus it may take several years before it can achieve major profits.

For the near term, although it depends on the deal, we don't plan to grow the U.S. business through M&A unless it is an investment that will contribute to the asset management business. It is for these reasons that we have decided to both lower our FY 2024 March net income to JPY 330 billion and FY 2025 March net income forecast to JPY 400 billion. It goes without saying that our internal targets, I think, would remain at JPY 440 billion, and we would endeavor to exceed these goals. Please see a breakdown of FY 2023 March, FY 2024 March, and FY 2025 March pre-tax profits by category.

For FY 2023 March, overseas profits accounted for 43.2% of the total, but we expect this to go lower to 40.80% for FY 2024 March, owing to inflation and interest rate hikes in the U.S. as well as rising energy costs in Europe. This said, with the renewable energy business expected to contribute more dramatically to overseas profits from 2025 and the likely recovery in the U.S. economy within several years, we will continue to carry out activities with a vision to expand our overseas businesses going forward.

Sachiko Nakane (Master of Ceremony of IR and Sustainability)

Please turn to page 10. In FY March, ORIX continued our program of capital recycling.

We realized around JPY 60 billion in gains on sales of slightly more than JPY 200 billion in assets, including a part of a stake in Omac Technologies, while acquiring JPY 470 billion in new assets in the private equity, DHC real estate development, and other businesses. While new asset purchases have also been dominant in FY 2023 March, we will continue to manage our program in a balanced fashion in FY 2024 and onwards. IRR, ROA, ROI, and ROE will be used to assess the new investments and exits. In addition, the impact on the balance sheet PL and asset efficiency and risk-adjusted capital ratio also input a metric for credit rating standpoint. We do calculate segment-level WACC and ROIC, but this is only employed as a method of supporting internal managerial accounting.

This said, we believe that ROIC is not an appropriate fit for actually calculating the future potential of investment projects for all the various business segments. For this reason, we have decided not to disclose ROIC value for each segment at this time, but will continue to manage each business unit in a way that considers the capital cost of both debt and equity. Please turn to page 11. Our investment pipeline for domestic and overseas projects now totals at about JPY 1.5 trillion. Our domestic pipeline includes the development of logistics centers and condominiums, as well as private equity deals such as carve-outs. Although we need to carefully monitor conditions such as changes in interest rates, we plan to move ahead with carefully selected projects.

For domestic logistics center and the condo development projects, we expect to realize a developed NOI yield of 4% or higher range centered on urban locations such as Tokyo and Osaka. For domestic private equity, our basic plan is to pursue projects which can guarantee an IRR over 15%-20% over 5-7-year holding period. For investment in renewable energy overseas, with both interest rates and construction costs rising, we will only carry out projects where we can ensure sufficient arbitrage, we'll realize certain exit strategy. Please turn to the next page. On April 14th, the Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism approved the Osaka MICE IR projects bid, spearheaded by MGM and ORIX. We now have 90 days to sign an agreement with Osaka Prefecture and City.

While there are uncertainties and issues remaining, such as detailed design of the facilities as well as full remediation and risk reduction measures, we are proceeding based on the assumption that these issues can be resolved. As we move towards an opening in 2029 or later, adjustments may have to be made for construction costs and the Osaka Expo, but we are aware of the importance of carefully monitoring construction costs and schedules. At any rate, we have heard that several lawsuits to stop work on this have been filed, but we hope to contribute to sustainable growth in the economy and tourism of Osaka and Kansai region. Regarding Toshiba, a takeover bid contract has been signed between JIP and Toshiba. Antitrust filings will be made in each country, and we expect the TOB procedures to begin in late July.

While we cannot disclose certain details due to the fact that this is a TOB procedure, ORIX plans to supply JPY 100 billion to mezzanine syndicate loans funded by banking groups and also to invest JPY 100 billion in equity as limited partner. We decided to participate in the JIP consortium based on a positive evaluation of Toshiba's corporate values and executability of the management improvement plan. Although this is positioned strictly as financial investment that will depend on JIP's management ability, we will strive towards the promotion of a new management structure and achieving improvement in corporate value through communication with JIP, and we'll consider exit strategy following achievement of these. Please turn to page 13 to 14.

Regarding the progress in ESG-related measures, after expanding our TCFD scenario analysis and moving forward with measurements and disclosure in key areas such as Scope three GHG emissions, water usage, and waste volumes, we have seen improvements in both our ESG ratings and our standing in the annual Nikkei SDG survey. In December 2022, ORIX was newly added to the constituent to the FTSE Blossom index, and now it is included in all of the ESG indices utilized by the GPIF for domestic stock allocation. We are preparing a survey and risk analysis regarding human rights protection, and we are also creating an integrated report that features more detailed sustainability information.

Going forward, in addition to continuing activities that will further develop an understanding of ORIX sustainability promotion direction among all employees, we will also be raising awareness of human rights across our supply chain, improving our sustainability policy, enhancing our non-financial risk disclosures. In order to promote achievement of our key ESG related goals in FY 2024 March, the Nominating Committee is considering measures which will include ESG linked performance metrics in bonuses for internal directors and some executive officers. We will announce these metrics externally as soon as the final decision is made. On page 15. On 31st March 2023, the Tokyo Stock Exchange has recently directed listed companies to make action plans if their shares are trading below P/B of 1.0 times and to promote discussion with shareholders.

From past results, it's clear that ROE and price per share are clearly correlated. From this perspective, improving our ROE will, more than anything else, lead to higher share price. Thus, outlined before, we will make maximum efforts to lift ROE to 11% or above, and we will also work to improve disclosure methods to investors. That's all from me. Thank you for your attention.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We are now ready for the Q&A session. If you wish to ask a question, please press the star key, then press 1 on your telephone keypad. After your name is announced, please ask your question. If you wish to cancel the question, please press the star key, then press two. If you wish to ask a question, you may ask up to 1 question. Thank you. First of all, Mr. Watanabe from Daiwa Securities.

Yamato Watanabe (Managing Director)

I am Watanabe from Daiwa Securities. I'm referring to page seven, and that is to do with your shareholders return. 33% plus, I think is the payout ratio that you're indicating. May I take it that this is your target?

Also, at the same time, with regard to the capital policy upon this guidance which was provided from the TSE, is there any kind of changes? You have quickly identified, although we had kind of roughly indicated this number. As a result of the benefits that would be canceled that have been provided to the shareholders, we thought that some of the shareholders may decide, the retail shareholders may decide to apart themselves from our shares. Although the amount that we were spending on this, the shareholders benefit

will be allocated. The cost will be allocated to the payout of the dividend. If we can achieve JPY 400 billion of a net income, I think it would require us to increase the dividend in a significant manner. We hope that we'll be able to pay out more than what we have indicated as a target. We hope that it will be above 33%. You can perceive it to be 33% plus. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much for that. SMBC Nikko Securities, Muraki-san, please ask your question.

Muraki san (Senior Analyst)

Thank you. JPY 330 billion this year and JPY 400 billion next year. This profit forecasts give us some sense of ease.

Inflation and banking crisis, how does it impact the banking business for ORIX, both in Japan and United States? On page eight, you're saying that the PE will be mostly focused in the domestic market, and some asset management acquisition may happen overseas. I think that is a policy that you're indicating. On page 10, there are many keywords: cost increase, procurement environment worsening, and also credit is tightening and off balance. There are so many different keywords here. My question really is, in the existing business, what are the concerns about exposures for specific businesses? What kind of scenarios do you need to get ready for? Carve-outs as well as investment into NPL or equity or credit could be maybe provided for risk opportunities. How do you see those opportunities?

Sachiko Nakane (Master of Ceremony of IR and Sustainability)

As far as Japan is concerned, we now have a new governor of our BOJ, but the policy will remain the same. That is my expectation. Their interest rate for Japan may increase slightly, but we believe that it is going to be manageable. As far as Japan is concerned, we will not be changing the policy very much. In other words, we'll be investing into new projects actively. Also overseas, investors are still planning to invest newly in Japan as well. We want to actively promote capital recycling. I have not a big concern for the Japanese market. ORIX USA would be the biggest concern. Last year, from October and November, the situation became more tight in terms of a new investment. In other words, we have been very careful in selecting new projects.

More than JPY 700 million in FY 2022. In the end, we could secure a profit of over $400 million, so it was fine. If we want to increase it to $700 million-$800 million, then it would be too risky, especially for USA private credit. In other words, lending is the mainstay. As interest rate goes up, there's a high risk in implementing loans. We have basically slowed down the whole process. For FY 2024, contribution to profit is only about $400 million maximum. Of course, our doubtful debts will have to be increased or have to be considered to be increased.

Bank loans, if this is stopped or slowed down, well, non-banks like us can continue to lend money, but the target companies will face financial challenges, in which case we cannot really lend to those targets, so we have to continue to be cautious. Contribution of profit from the USA is going to be quite small. That's how we plan the numbers. If the banks stop lending and the regional banks stop lending, and the banks start to sell assets and asset sales is increased, what would happen is, as we saw in the case of aircrafts and ships. Banks started selling their portfolio in aircrafts and ships from about two years ago, we are purchasing at a discount basis. For aircrafts and ships, we have increased our exposure.

For example, average coupon is LIBOR plus 350. Loan to value of the asset is 50%, for example. These purchase of loans are very safe, and we have many opportunities such as that. We expect ORIX USA to go through a similar process. Heavy asset financing and against those markets are providing offers to us to sell. Depending on the consent, we may consider to purchase. Loan to value, of course, has to be kept low, and pricing has to be aligned with what we want. We now have an opportunity to be selective.

We expect such opportunities. Still, the funding cost will have to be also taken into account. Finally, how much profit or revenue can we generate from each deal? Well, it's not really reliable, but so far, recently, about 600 or 700 so far, deals will definitely appear. We believe that this is another type of opportunity that would be available to us. In terms of scenarios, for this year, center on Japan, we will be building good assets, and we will promote sales, centering Japan. As far as the USA is concerned, asset management business is currently the focus. The US market. Actually, some asset managers are struggling already, which means that it will push the prices down, and at lower prices, we should be able to purchase things.

Private credit deals will appear, as I have mentioned earlier. Based on this kind of assumption, for the second half of this fiscal year as well as next fiscal year, we will continue to deploy our business. I hope that answers your question.

Muraki san (Senior Analyst)

Yes, that's very clear. Thank you very much for your answer.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Thank you for the question. From Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, Tsujino-san, please.

Natsumu Tsujino (Managing Director)

Thank you very much for the opportunity. The first question that I'd like to ask is with regard to the business in the U.S. I want you to answer in a more specific terms. I know that you are remaining pretty cautious on the commercial properties in a real estate asset, but the exposure that you may have directly. How much of what would you mind sharing in more specific terms as to what you own currently?

One other thing that I would like to ask you, this time, by segments, if you were to look into the details, it looks as if environment and energy may not be particularly good for a similar reason, winter, in other words, and also Robeco and in Europe, that is. Interest rate, the cost is rising. At the time of acquisition, the cost of acquisition may have been affected because of interest rate hike. That was my assumption or imagination. It is in the United States was as well, I imagine. There are quite a number of negative factors that I need to dig down into. Environment and energy and also European business.

If you are to dedicate more effort in the next year, what do you think about the business, to develop this year as well as the next year?

Makoto Inoue (Member of the Board of Directors, President, Executive Officer, and CEO)

You have asked me a lot of questions. If you could refer to page 35, ORIX USA credit, real estate and PE and segment, profit, assets breakdown. The real estate, asset is mostly affordable, housing. Via NXC, we do have commercial, real estate, but the loan to value is pretty low, mostly we're participating in the syndication.

Therefore, in terms of the value, $3,350 million it says in the real estate. Out of which, $2 billion, more than $2 billion U.S. dollars is housing related, so we are not impacted very much. As to the rest of $1 billion, NXT Capital's syndication, it is a part we are participating via NXT Capital's syndication. As to the appropriation of the loan losses, the reserves, we are not appropriating any reserves yet, but we are remaining to be cautious.

With regard to credit, they are all private credit, so therefore there are like two to three deals that may perhaps aggravate and that may, of course, raise the credit cost, and this is why we are adding the reserves amount. As to the private equity, it is a small amount in any case, but for these, we would continue to up and run the business. The operation has not deteriorated yet. But as to the company, the companies, the cost of borrowing of course, is rising, so we need to of course manage this well. As to Robeco, it goes without saying that as of now, AUM in fact is on the decline.

However, we are making positive profit from Transtrend and also Boston Partners, Robeco, and Harbor Capital. We have these major subsidiaries. Transtrend is focused on commodities, so they have been recording, they have been posting record high, and we should be able to do the same this year as well. Whereas Boston Partners, up until now, they were very much value-focused. The value focus was not particularly good in the past, but the value investment, in fact, is gaining a profit. Therefore, I think we can perform better. Gravis Capital is struggling, but we are in fact going to be changing the active HETF. The AUM, in fact, is on the rising trend or expanding trend.

From the latter half of this year, we are hoping that we'll be able to generate positive results. Also from the mutual fund, Robeco that is, we are now trying to convert to active funds, and the private credit fund is also to be formulated or formed. Therefore, there should not be very much of an undershoot. All in all, I think it is on the upward trend. What was the other question? That is to do with the energy and environment. If I may perhaps add to, this is Yano. With regard to environment and energy, just as you have pointed out, there is something that I need to make a note about.

There is some seasonal factor, especially in India, that may affect our businesses in a significant manner. Being the domestic market, the solar power business, there was some snow that has affected our business in a negative way, and we had to carry out some construction works. We decided not to overstretch ourselves, and this is why we have decided to impair some amount, although it is not significant, but rather than repairing it. Therefore, in a very short time period, it looks as if our environment and energy, in fact, has aggravated in terms of their performances, but that is not the case. The first quarter, we do expect the recovery to take place in the segment. As for Era One, as a matter of fact, electricity of course price is rising.

Therefore, the earnings, in fact, is on the trend of improvement. Yes, for sure. This is Yano again. EROIN, I think Tsujino-san, I think you're asking about the, you know, the quarterly trend, the changes that is for the negative. EROIN, in fact, had was boosted, and then it may have come down, but EROIN overall is enjoying a positive trend. What was the other question? I think that answered to all the questions. Yes. Yes, that is all. Thank you. Thank you very much for answering to my question.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. The floor is open for questions. If you have a question, please press star and one. UB Securities. Okada-

Speaker 8

san, please ask your question. Yes, this is Okada from UB Securities. I'm looking at page 11. 25th March consolidated results forecast. Profit plan was actually revised downward, but the domestic non-financial and overseas others, actually, the profit plan is increased. If possible, can you please talk about the forecast of the plan and background of why you have increased the profit? Which segment is strong, so on and so forth? Thank you.

Sachiko Nakane (Master of Ceremony of IR and Sustainability)

Thank you. FY 2025 March numbers. Well, you will see one number actually, but simply speaking, I would say that the overseas environment energy and aircraft and ships are expected to grow. Aircraft and ships, this is mostly aircraft, including Avolon. Going forward, we know that there's going to be some movements around narrow body and also SAF new fuel. Because of this impact, new model of aircraft will be introduced, so there's going to be cycling. Also, Jo Co for Japanese investors are receiving a lot of inquiries. Therefore, we believe that we can expect a strong growth. That's our plan. For OCU and OCE, in FY 2024, the assumption is hardly any growth. This is the U.S. Once the recovery happens, it would happen very quickly.

Around FY 2025, we expect new investments happening, especially in the United States. As for 2025 March, private equity assets that we own will be sold in 2024 and 2025 gradually, and that is also the background for this number. I hope this answers your question.

Speaker 8

Thank you. Just one follow-up question. Overseas energy segment forecast was revised upwards. What is the background of this? Is it energy prices, or is it because of the asset building on your side?

Sachiko Nakane (Master of Ceremony of IR and Sustainability)

As far as ENEOS is concerned, in the beginning of fiscal year, we basically decided to own 100%, and by doing so, we removed partners. In other words, we now have a higher degree of freedom. The solar power and wind farm developed by ENEOS can be turned into funds. We can incorporate third-party money, and we can increase this. There are many projects in place. Also pension fund, ESG investments, many investors are keen to increase that, which means that we can be more actively promoting investments. Interest rate is going up, construction cost is also up. We have to look at this very carefully and find deals where we can get arbitrage and capital gain. If that is the case, we will be actively doing those deals.

As for Greenko, there is the hydropower and also hydrogen as well as ammonia. These will be developed around Greenko, and this is all brownfield. We believe that they can start contributing to profit starting from FY 2025. That is the assumption behind this number.

Speaker 8

That's very clear. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you for the question. From JPMorgan, we have Sato San asking the question. The next.

Speaker 7

Thank you very much. I am from JPMorgan Securities. My name is Sato. I'd like to ask a question by referring to page 47 of the deck, and that is a little bit the capital usage. I think I have been asking the question sometime before as well. 91% was the ratio of the long-term, but employed capital ratio. Has it been bringing about any kind of impact, or will there be any changes in the future? The risk-taking, I know that you're remaining to be cautious, but the risk capital may increase. On the other hand, the shareholders' equity, on the other hand, I'm sure you're referring to the capital from the accounting perspective.

If the interest rate hikes, embedded value, even if it was to be kind of added, I think from an accounting perspective, it could turn to negative and also at the same time, it may bring about some negative repercussion. Therefore, I think you may perhaps use up some of the retained earnings and therefore, that may perhaps affect you and therefore the employed capital ratio may go beyond 91%. Would that give any kind of impact in terms of the capital management? If it starts to kind of impact the capital management, it means that we may have to slow down some of the new investment, execution of new investment.

To be very frank with you, as to the funding side, we do not foresee any major risk. That is not in our assumption. Sometime in the future, as we have been saying, our equity ratio of 22%, 23%, it may reach to 25%, and this equity ratio, what is regarded to be appropriate is what we need to think about. Also bank borrowing, at the moment, we have no issue. What concerns me is the euro-denominated or U.S. dollar-denominated funding, whether it would proceed in the smooth way as it has done so in the past or not. We have to take that into consideration.

As I have been saying, I think we have to proceed with this capital recycling effort, and there's no way that we can continue to build up our assets as we have done so. It is currently about JPY 11 trillion, is it about the total of JPY 14 trillion or so? PBR would be 1.5x, and which means that we may have to consider third-party allotment. Unless we reach to that extent, within the JPY 12 trillion of an asset, I think we would have to just enhance the profitability and the borrowing ratio, the debt ratio should be maintained. That is our basic policy.

Sachiko Nakane (Master of Ceremony of IR and Sustainability)

Dependent on the project, though, the deal, though, it may perhaps bring about the kind of further aggravation, but I don't think it would be the case. I hope this answers to the question.

Listening to you just now, at the end of the day, I know that you would try to strike that balance by referring to different numbers. If you were to think about the capital, in light of the risk, what you need to do on the capital side, the risk control, I think, comes first, I suppose. On the other hand, you may perhaps increase the retained earnings, which may perhaps put a pressure on the payouts. In other words...

That may perhaps be the kind of the last resort kind of strategy. That is true, but, you know, you know, everything is kind of interrelated, so I will not be able to give you a straightforward answer. I think we would have to refer to ROE after all, because if we can raise that to the level of 11%, or we would have to exert our effort to bring it up to 11%. By, you know, of course, increasing the retained earnings, the ROE would be lower. This is why we have to strike the right balance.

If there was to be any kind of new deals and new project that is attractive, there may perhaps be a case whereby the shares repurchase may be carried out, but we are still trying to achieve what we had intended to. So therefore, you know, this is our idea to the retained earnings level. Also as to the borrowing, there may perhaps be the repeat of the global financial crisis, who knows? Therefore, I think we need to keep a right balance between offensive as well as defensive attitude. I suppose. I don't know whether this answers to your question, but as of now, I think you have given us the best possible, I think, answer. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Citigroup Securities. Ms. Taniwa, please.

Speaker 6

Yes, this is Miwa. Can you hear me?

Sachiko Nakane (Master of Ceremony of IR and Sustainability)

Yes, we can hear you.

Speaker 6

This is not about the earnings, but more about the long term. 2030 March, JPY 600 billion level of profit. That is the ultimate target. I think 2025 March is just a milestone. JPY 400 billion was just mildly milestone. That was my understanding. There are some environmental factors too, but you're struggling maybe to achieve JPY 400 billion, which is just a milestone. JPY 600 billion or higher, is this still your target over long term? I understand that overseas may be a growth factor, but is it really true? 2025 March, which is supposed to be a midpoint or milestone, I understand what has happened until then, but what about beyond 2025 March? Are you going to revise downward or maintain the original target?

Is it too early to say?

Sachiko Nakane (Master of Ceremony of IR and Sustainability)

To be honest, I don't think this is the right time to talk about that right now. 2030 is seven years more to go. I'll be dead by then. In other words, the next generation of leaders will have to make the commitment. I don't want to leave my wrong legacy assets, so I don't want to say the wrong thing. Right now, we are opportunistic in participating in all the different types of segments, and we are not necessarily successful across the board. Generally speaking, we are maintaining growth. Compared to 10 years ago, we have grown a lot, and we want to maintain this trend going forward. Right now, environment and energy and overseas market as well as asset management are in our focus. We want to grow them.

Several years down the line, maybe we will focus on a different segment or different area because they will emerge, and we want to capture those opportunity in a timely manner. We want to be able to do that. We want to have the capability for that and also funding to be able to do that. JPY 400 billion is just a milestone for us, and if possible, we want to achieve JPY 600 billion. We're not really a trading company, so it's really difficult to say that we can achieve JPY 1 trillion easily, but JPY 600 billion is definitely within our sight. We have not really revised that downward.

Speaker 6

Very clear. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you for the question. It is almost time for us to conclude this session. It looks as if there are no more questions, so we would like to conclude today's conference. I would like to invite Inoue, Mr. Inoue to provide us with the closing remarks. You know, because of COVID, I think it's been 4x since we have been carrying out this briefing session in this way, teleconference in other words. We would very much like to perhaps hold a session in a in-person manner. I'm sure we'll be receiving much tougher questions if we were to meet you in person, but still we look forward to seeing you then. With this, we'd like to conclude today's briefing session. Thank you for your participation.

Makoto Inoue (Member of the Board of Directors, President, Executive Officer, and CEO)

You may now disconnect.

Thank you so much. Thank you.