ORIX - Q4 2024

Transcript

Kazuki Yamamoto (Operating Officer and Head of Investor Relations)

I am Kazuki Yamamoto, Operating Officer in charge of Corporate Planning and IR departments. I'd like to make use of the deck in front of you to provide you with FY 2024 management full year earnings briefing, so please turn to page two. So the right-hand side of the right-hand side of page 2 shows ORIX's record high profit for the year, FY 2024 management, with net income of JPY 3,346.1 billion, and this is a year-on-year increase of JPY 55.8 billion, up 19%. ROA rose to 9.2%. Now, quarterly trends in net income is shown on the right. Q4 net income was JPY 126.9 billion.

This is ORIX's highest quarterly net profit figure to date, even higher than the 2022 fiscal year March-end when we sold Yayoi. Profit was bolstered by investment gains from the sale of partial stake in ORIX Credit and exits from domestic PE investment. Please turn to page three.

Segment profit rose 22% year-over-year to JPY 494.2 billion. As shown on the right-hand quarterly graph, FY 2024 March end ended tail-heavy in terms of exit as initially forecasted. In other words, we were able to maintain a consistent uptrend in base profits and investment gains over the fiscal year as a result. Next, please look at the full year graph on the left-hand side. Base profits were up 14% year-over-year to JPY 367.6 billion, which also represents a new record high.

Profit recovery in the facility operations and the concession business, thanks to higher inbound tourism as well as growth in investment income in the insurance segment, were the main reasons behind growth in base profit.

The light blue investment gains were also up 54% year-over-year to JPY 126.5 billion, while we have been maintaining an average of JPY 100 billion over the past five years. Thanks to ongoing capital recycling in our asset portfolio, including the real estate and domestic PE businesses and a portion of ORIX Credit shares, we exceeded average this time with JPY 126.5 billion of gain. Note that from the fourth quarter, we have reclassified earnings from the investment in affiliates account into either equity-measured investments or goodwill, depending on the type of asset.

As a result, we have retroactively restated both base profits and investment gains. Next, please turn to page four and five for the breakdown of segment profits and segment assets. Detailed information can be found further back in the presentation from page 20 onwards. Please take a look after.

I'll just give a brief overview of the highlights here. First, the corporate financial services and maintenance leasing segment profits were up JPY 6.2 billion to JPY 81.2 billion. In corporate financial services, profits were up as three businesses were solid, and M&A brokerage businesses also contributed to profits. In the auto unit, strong leisure demand for rental cars and ongoing high prices in the used car market helped the business achieve its third consecutive year of record high profit.

Segment assets were up by JPY 38.3 billion to JPY 1,552.3 trillion, JPY 1.5523 trillion, as asset increase in the corporate financial services unit as it undertook a variety of financing deals while remaining careful in selecting new business. Assets also increased in the auto unit thanks to rental car fleet replacement. Next is the real estate segment. Segment profits were up JPY 14.3 billion to JPY 65.8 billion.

The real estate investment and facilities operations unit saw profits rise as inbound tourism demand led to strong earnings at Hotels & Resorts, in addition with book gains on the sales of a large property in Q3. The Daikyo unit secured profits in line with the previous fiscal year, aided by robust sales of high-margin condos. Segment assets were up, although still being selective. Real estate investment and facilities operations unit then continued to develop new logistics facilities while actively selling properties as part of capital recycling.

Daikyo assets increased by JPY 59.1 billion as compared to 2023 March end, bolstered by the acquisition of a very well-situated site for large-scale development. We continued to operate this segment based on a business model of acquiring promising properties and then monetizing them after adding value. Next is the PE investment and concession segment.

Segment profits were up sharply by JPY 40.5 billion, JPY 43.4 billion. Although ORIX booked costs associated with the purely financial stake in Toshiba, we saw two PE investees, including Primajest, in second half. This plus a start to contribution to base profits from DHC acquired last year led to strong upswing in segment profits. The concession unit returned to profit on a full year basis for the first time since the pandemic, aided by a sharp rise in earnings following growth in international passengers thanks to strong inbound tourism.

Segment assets were up by JPY 167.4 billion net versus end March end of 2023, although assets rose due to JPY 200 billion stake in Toshiba. We had several exits from investees. Environment energy segment profits were down 9% year-on-year to JPY 29.9 billion.

Domestic business secured profits in line with the year-earlier level despite some quarterly fluctuations owing to the impact of output cap of solar power. Overseas, profits were down year-on-year owing to elevated euro interest rates and the absence of year-earlier investment gains. However, electricity sales rose due to steady expansion of capacity at Elawan Segment assets were up JPY 73.4 billion versus end of March FY 2023, owing mainly to changes in Forex.

Assets in real estate PE investment and concession and environmental energy segments are each less than JPY 1 trillion, and we remain aware of maintaining balance between different segments. Insurance segment assets were up 11% year-on-year to JPY 70 billion. Profits are up, mainly driven by lower COVID-related payout expenses versus the prior year and the higher investment income aided by yen depreciation and high interest rates.

Insurance premium income is also rising steadily, with whole life insurance being marketed more aggressively. Segment assets were up by JPY 258.9 billion versus end FY23 March, reflecting the impact of FX and increasing investment securities. Bank and credit profits were up JPY 59.1 billion to JPY 96.7 billion. In the credit business, ORIX sold 66% of shares to NTT DOCOMO to create joint venture. This transaction resulted in investment gains and valuation gains of around JPY 57 billion. In banking, interest income from real estate investment loans grew due to higher long-term interest rates.

With only marginal increases in deposit-related expenses, profits were up year on year. Higher trust fees also contributed, resulting from ORIX Bank's focus on growing trust assets. Segment assets rose JPY 34.3 billion, reflecting higher lending in the merchant banking business in ORIX Bank.

Based on the stake, ORIX Credit is now considered an affiliate rather than a consolidated subsidiary. Total assets for banking and credit and insurance segments are about JPY 5 trillion. This represents 37% of ORIX's total assets, and we continue to manage this ratio with an awareness of the quality of insurance and banking-related assets and overall balance within the firm.

Next is aircraft and ships segment. Profit rose 44% year-on-year to JPY 26.8 billion. In aircraft leasing, passenger demand in the U.S. and Europe reached record high levels. Recovery in airline earnings and the tight supply demand for aircraft led to an increase in both leasing income and gains of the sales of aircraft. This led to higher profits year-on-year.

In the ships business, profits were in line with a target but lower year-on-year, owing to proactive sales of owned vessels a year ago when prices were favorable. At the end of February, ORIX acquired Santoku Senpaku, which will begin to contribute to profits in fiscal year 2025 March on a three

-month lag. At Avolon, hedging costs rose owing to elevated U.S. dollar interest rates. Growth in lease revenues, fueled by a rebound in passenger demand, helped the firm achieve profitability on a full year basis for the first time since the pandemic. Segment assets were up JPY 315.5 billion versus end of FY2023 March, reaching slightly more than JPY 1 trillion. This reflects aircraft purchases in active leasing, in addition to Santoku Senpaku, which owns 67 vessels as a consolidated subsidiary. ORIX USA segment profit was declined by 65% year-on-year to JPY 17.3 billion.

In Q4, OCU booked losses associated with withdrawal from an investee, as well as preventative allowances and payments based on conservative view, risk from long-term inflation and elevated interest rates. The resultant segment loss was JPY 10.5 billion for the first quarter alone. Segment assets were up by JPY 74.3 billion, reflecting the substantial impact of weaker yen. We remain price-sensitive and selective with new deals and through the sales of assets in the real estate business.

Utilized hotel assets, excluding FX impact, were down by JPY 107.2 billion versus end of the prior year. ORIX Europe segment profit were down 30% to JPY 28.6 billion. In FY 2023 March and 2022 March, OEC booked JPY 10 billion or more in performance fees, but this amount declined substantially in FY 2024 March. Higher currency hedging costs resulting from rising U.S. interest rates led to lower profits year on year.

In the mainstay asset management business, assets hit EUR 324 billion, a new record high at the end of FY 2024 March, buoyed by strong equity market and management fees. Segment assets were essentially flat after excluding the impact of yen depreciation. Finally, the Asia and Australia segment profit were down 2% year-on-year to JPY 34.3 billion. Profits were flat versus a year ago thanks to growth in lease and lending assets in South Korea, Australia, India, and other countries from new executions.

Gains from the sale of an investee during Q4 also contributed. Segment assets were up JPY 192.4 billion as a result of favorable new lease executions in ASEAN countries and India, and the impact from FX changes. We maintain a cautious stance on investments in Greater China.

The aircraft and ships and the US, Europe, and Asia segments comprise a total of 22% of segment profits and 34% of segment assets. We will continue to carefully monitor economic and financial trends in each country. This concludes my explanation about FY 2024 March full year results. Next, we will like to hand over to our CEO, Mr. Inoue. Please begin.

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

Good afternoon. This is ORIX CEO, Makoto Inoue. Let me begin from page six. For 2024 March end, ORIX achieved pre-tax profits of JPY 470 billion and a 19% increase in net income to JPY 346.1 billion. This represents an achievement 105% of our announced net income target. EPS was JPY 299.

Now, in line with our policy of paying a dividend per share of either 33% of net income or last year's DPS of JPY 85.6, whichever is higher, we will pay a full year dividend per share of JPY 98.6 for March end of 2024. Now, since we paid an interim dividend of JPY 42.8 per share, the year-end dividend will be JPY 55.8 per share. ROE for FY24 March end was 9.2%.

Now, please turn to pages seven and eight. FY 2025 March end is the final year of the three-year mid-term outlook that we introduced two years ago. We initially forecasted net income of JPY 440 billion for the final year, which we revised downward to JPY 400 billion last fiscal year in light of market conditions at the time. But today, we now target FY25 March end net income of JPY 390 billion.

Now, this translates to an ROE of 9.6%, although improving our ROE is a major challenge for ORIX. Unfortunately, I will have to ask for your patience for another year for us to achieve our goal of ROE exceeding 10%. Our target of JPY 390 billion net income suggests 12.7% year-over-year growth for FY 2025 March end 2025. Now, please turn to page nine. There are three main reasons for our decision to lower the profit target from JPY 400 billion to JPY 390 billion.

First, it may take some additional time before a full recovery in ORIX USA earnings because we foresee high credit costs to persist, as well as elevated interest rates to continue as inflation remains stubbornly high. Second, the MICE-IR project has begun in earnest, resulting in capital outflows that may not produce profits for some time and upfront cost outlays.

Now, in addition, we see a lack of visibility caused by political divisions owing to expansion in international conflicts, Chinese economic slackness to some extent, coupled with Japan's sinking position globally owing to historic yen depreciation and the unpredictable impact of high prices on the economy.

For these reasons, we have decided to conservatively target JPY 390 billion for the coming fiscal year. However, this JPY 390 billion is, of course, just a minimum target, and internally, we maintain our goal to exceed net profits of JPY 400 billion. Now, please turn to page 10. I will outline the measures we plan to take to reach JPY 390 billion in net profits later.

So now, I would like to announce our dividend policy for FY March 2025, which will be to pay a dividend equivalent to 39% of net income or equal to the FY 2024 March dividend of JPY 98.6, whichever is higher. As in the previous fiscal year, we have set a share buyback program of JPY 50 billion. This translates to EPS of JPY 341 and DPS of JPY 133.2 for the full year.

Combined with the JPY 50 billion in shares buyback, ORIX total shareholders return is set to reach 51.8%. Now, please turn to page 11. Unfortunately, the credit rating agency S&P recently announced its decision to downgrade ORIX from A- to BBB+.

Although we maintain high levels of profitability, S&P found it difficult to maintain an A- rating on ORIX as a financial institution in light of a diversified portfolio, which includes operating assets and investments, and given the speed of our capital recycling program. Moody's and Fitch maintain A equivalent. R&I and JCR maintain AA equivalent, and they have a stable outlook as well. We will continue our dialogue with the rating agencies to ensure they give an objective and fair evaluation of our businesses.

Please note that S&P downgrading has no impact on ORIX's capital and financial policies. Now, please turn to pages 12 and 13. ORIX Group holds assets of JPY 16 trillion with shareholders' equity of JPY 4 trillion. Due to an accounting requirement, non-recourse loans at investees, third-party capital, and accounts which should be considered off-balance sheet are held on ORIX's balance sheet.

With ORIX's diverse investment style, each M&A execution has led to an increase in goodwill and intangibles. In light of this, in order to fairly represent the nature of the group businesses, I think a new approach would have to be examined. In FY 2025 March end, our ROE target is 9.6%. However, each year, our intangible assets average around JPY 1 trillion.

So considering this, we can believe return on tangible equity, ROTE, which is net income divided by shareholders' equity minus goodwill and intangible assets, is an effective way to measure ORIX's nature of business and the actual profitability. Note that ORIX's ROTE trends at around 13%. Going forward, we will disclose ROTE alongside with ROE. In addition to ROE and ROTE, an important factor for growing corporate value is EPS.

EPS of JPY 246 in FY 2023 March end, JPY 299 in FY 2024 March, and we target JPY 341 in FY 2025 March end. We will continue to endeavor to strengthen EPS and our P/B ratio with the aim of improving shareholders' value. Now, please refer to pages 14-16. We target FY25 March pre-tax profits of JPY 553.7 billion, an increase of 70.81% year-over-year. I will now use the three categories of finance, operation, and investment to provide with you the breakdown.

The finance category includes ORIX Life, ORIX Bank, the leasing, installment loan, and lending businesses of the corporate financial services segment, ORIX USA, and leasing businesses at overseas subsidiaries. Within Japan, we can expect a mild increase in yen interest rates, which should help improve financing income, asset management yields, and leasing spreads.

At ORIX Bank, in addition to commercial banking, we aim to strategically improve both ROA and ROE through expansion in merchant banking and private banking. In insurance, we anticipate growth in embedded value fueled by improvements in asset management yields. At ORIX USA, we assume high interest rates to continue and therefore expect that the credit cost burden to continue to rise.

However, the multi-family agency and non-agency lending segment, which is ORIX USA's strength, is faring comparatively well, and we expect it to contribute to earnings during this fiscal year. In the latter half of this fiscal year, we would hope that improved credit spreads from expectations of future rate cuts might help boost earnings. However, before rate cuts actually occur, we feel that the impact of a possible increase in credit cost must also be considered. Thus, we plan to continue to conservatively manage OCU portfolio going forward.

In high-growth markets like Australia, Indonesia, and India, we plan to increase our financial portfolio. For finance category segments, we target at about JPY 45 billion increase in pre-tax profits after the gain from the sale of ORIX Credit. Next, I would like to talk about the operation category. We anticipate a roughly JPY 18 billion year-end increase in pre-tax profits, including facility operations in inns and hotels in the real estate segment, condo development, and the sales at Daikyo and the auto leasing business.

In ships, while our business model was primarily focused on ship financing and sales, the acquisition of Santoku Senpaku will allow us to make a full-fledged entry into marine transport freight management, ship charters, and coastal businesses. In addition, we plan to accelerate investment in eco-ships, making our ships business even more sustainable.

In addition to ORIX Aviation and Avolon's aircraft leasing business, ORIX is well positioned to benefit from an increasing movement of people and goods. In the aircraft and ships business, we are poised to offer solutions in the operations, finance, and investment areas, and we plan to grow this as a core business for ORIX Group. At NXT Capital in the U.S. and Robeco in the Netherlands, we are searching for ways to expand the asset management business.

Although it is a competitive market, in order for ORIX Group to maintain its earnings expansion, we must consider how to best utilize third-party capital. This remains a vital area for ORIX to address. Investments are becoming increasingly large in scale, such as carve-outs, and there are many opportunities facing us.

We think that there is a limit to what ORIX can achieve when it is responsible for all of the acquisition capital. The shift towards an asset manager model is an important medium-term theme for ORIX. ORIX's strengths include expertise in managing a variety of tangible assets and wealth of financing expertise. For this reason, we believe that we shall have no difficulty in expanding our role in asset manager. The current JPY 60 trillion level AUM should be expanded to JPY 100 trillion level as rapidly as possible.

Our basic policy for investment is unchanged. That is, not to limit ourselves to any particular industry, but to carefully consider profitability and equity in aim to secure opportunity deals capitalizing upon the strengths of the ORIX Group network. ORIX is active in a variety of fields such as private equity, carve-outs, business succession deals, and venture capital.

Our basic principle behind portfolio management is always capital recycling. The Kansai Airports concession business, our joint venture with Vinci Group, stands poised to benefit from earnings expansion powered by inbound tourism from the 2025 Osaka Expo in FY 2024 March. In the investment category, we target pre-tax profit growth of around JPY 57 billion, driven by profit growth at domestic PE investees and capital recycling in the overseas renewable energy business.

Please turn to page 17. In FY 2024 March, ORIX reaped JPY 150 billion in capital gains from aircraft and ships, real estate, and PE. This reaches JPY 520 billion altogether with originally invested capital. New investments totaled JPY 620 billion. In FY 2025 March, we plan to continue our capital recycling program.

The pipeline, both within Japan and overseas, for new investments is ample, and we plan to stick to our business strategy, which cautiously weighs profitability, liquidity, and exit opportunities when making investment decisions. In this fiscal year, we expect global conflicts to further expand, worldwide divisions based on nationality, politics, and economics accelerating. The results of the November U.S. presidential election run the risk of increasing global uncertainty, and we must think about the possible impact in various areas.

Within Japan, yen depreciation and high prices remain unsolved. Both of these have the effect of lowering Japanese economic value and position in the world, and we must carefully consider the direction that the group will take. That said, we have no plans to change our basic strategy. In other words, we plan to, first of all, invest in domestic industries.

Second, execute investment aimed at solving problems and accelerate globalization of ORIX Group and expand our asset management strategy. We plan to maintain this direction for this and next fiscal year. In FY 2025 March, we mark the 60th anniversary for the founding of ORIX Group. We have seen some ups and downs, but I feel that we have been able to maintain a growth trajectory overall. The full and gracious support of shareholders and stakeholders has been key to our ability to return to a growth trajectory in just two years following the pandemic and the announcement of record high profits this fiscal year. Please turn to page 18.

For ORIX Group's 60th anniversary, we aim to further promote a sense of unity and increase in corporate value as a global company by accelerating the adoption of the ORIX Group purpose and culture, which was announced in the FY 2023 March results briefing. That concludes my remarks. Thank you very much for your kind attention. [Foreign language].

Operator (participant)

We'd like to move on to Q&A session now. If you wish to ask a question, please press the star key after asterisk, then press one on your telephone keypad. After your name is announced, please ask your question. If you wish to cancel the question, please press the star key and then press two. If you wish to ask a question, you may ask up to one question. So Mr. Sato from JP Morgan, to begin with, thank you. Sato-san from JP Morgan, please start asking your question. Hello?

Speaker 6

Can you hear me now?

Operator (participant)

Yes, we can.

Speaker 6

I'm very sorry for this. I am Sato from JP Morgan. Hello. I have two questions by asking one question by one. So first of all, on page 15, you had explained for this fiscal period all the prerequisites in coming up with a target for this year. Now, in the area of finance, you are thinking about increasing your profit by 40%, and that seems to be quite significant considering your business nature and the model.

So would you mind explaining the backdrop to this? And also, at the same time, the headquarters and managerial expense of JPY 75 billion seems to be pretty high as well. So would you mind confirming these numbers and also the backdrop to this?

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

So may I explain, profoundly explain to your question then?

Speaker 6

Yes. Okay.

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

In brief, first of all, with regard to this headquarters and administrative expenses, so JPY 45 billion of interest payment and SG&A is JPY 30 billion or so. So those are the major items that are included in the headquarters and administrative expenses. And I think the amount has been trending on and around this amount up to now, so it doesn't seem to be a big increase on our part.

And as for the growth area, I think I'd like to hand over to Yamamoto-san to answer to the question. So with regard to the finance segment or the financial businesses, insurance as well as in the U.S., we have been conservatively selecting our businesses, the deals, and we can start to experience some recovery.

Because we have incorporated some negatives in the prior year, and this is why we can expect a significant recovery this year, which means that in the United States. According to your qualitative explanation, you sounded very cautious in this briefing session, but you do expect normalization of the businesses, and that is reflected through the numbers. Is that right?

Well, the number that you had, JPY 148.2 billion and other profits, and that includes the sales of a credit company, and that is JPY 51 billion or so. So it is a capital gain. We shouldn't have really amalgamated the numbers. This is why, although the upper percentage is not that significant, however, from the flow of the business of financials, JPY 198 billion should be achieved, and the majority consists of insurance as well as bank.

Also, considering other parts of the financial businesses, we have set these numbers. As for the U.S., though, credit cost, we did, in fact, kind of appropriate it for the credit cost increase as of the end of March 2024. So we think that we have come to almost the peak level. However, although the numbers may not grow that much, however, the credit cost, I think, is just about to peak out. So this is why we have come up with this number, because we do not foresee the credit cost to further increase.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you very much for that. And the second question, in fact, is still on page 15, and that is to do with the PE investment. And you, in fact, expect the growth in a significant manner and the capital gain that appears on page 12, that is.

What I want to be asking, with regard to the capital gain, in the last year, there was, before the impairment losses, as well as the valuation losses, JPY 150 billion, I think that was. But this year, it is about JPY 150 billion-JPY 200 billion of an expectation this year. And it was about JPY 100 billion of an average for the past some years, which means that the capital gain is going to be significantly higher.

So over the two years, because of the environment that surrounds the business, the capital gain can be generated in a much bigger way or in numbers as compared to this JPY 100 billion of an average. It's just that there has been a shift on the level of the capital gain that you can generate in a single year. Would this be a new standard?

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

May I take it? So this is something that I would like you to confirm. So JPY 100 billion was an average per year, and that is our usual expectation. This year, it was higher because of the sales of the credit business. And although we separate into subsegments, this JPY 150 billion, in fact, includes the sales of the credit company.

And if you were to subtract that, it is roughly about JPY 100 billion of a gain. And that is roughly about our expectation, or it is in line with our expectation. I'm terribly sorry that I may be asking this in a different way, perhaps. But capital gain, I think, is still expected to JPY 150 billion-JPY 200 billion. That is your expectation going forward. Is that right? And for the next fiscal period and onwards, is this sustainable, the level JPY 150 billion, JPY 200 billion, JPY 200 billion? It is possible.

It is sustainable, but it is very much dependent on the deals that are available. And we are exploring different opportunities such as PE and also real estate investment. So we have a certain buffer in place. So still, our usual expectation would still be around JPY 100 billion. So from a flow perspective, normally, when we do acquire any kind of investment, the equity method and all that would be under consolidation. And this is why we do expect these kinds of numbers that you see on this page.

Speaker 6

Okay. Okay. That is all for myself. Thank you. [Foreign language]

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Daiwa Securities, Watanabe-san, please ask your question.

Speaker 5

Yes, this is Watanabe. Daiwa Securities, I have two questions. First question is about profit target. This is the last year of the midterm, and for FY 2026 March end and beyond, how much profit growth do you plan for?

ROTE and EPS, I understand you want to focus on these as KPIs, but going forward, do you think your KPIs will change? Well, for FY 2025 March end, this is the situation. Do we produce another three-year plan, midterm plan, beyond FY 2026 March end?

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

I'm sure that there are expectations for that, but when we produce a midterm plan, it will make the situation more difficult. So we are thinking about that. Including the directors of the board, we will be discussing what to do about the three-year plan, whether to announce that or not. If we announce it, what do we do? To be quite honest, going forward, we will have very heated internal discussions. Level of growth, more than 10% of growth. This is something that we must achieve. Based on that understanding, of course, the numbers need to exceed 10%.

But it goes without saying that it depends on the market. But anyway, we are looking at that, and we need some more time before we can announce something externally. So please be patient. What is the second question? ROTE and also EPS, are you going to focus on different KPIs going forward? ROA, ROE, and well, ROTE is maybe another perspective that we should have. Some other companies are looking at return on tangible assets as well, but there are companies that don't use this KPI.

Trading companies invest a lot in tangible assets, so they usually use ROE. But our investments, well, there's a lot of goodwill sometimes of intangible assets, and we invest into those companies quite often. Of course, we will show ROE, but ROTA is something maybe we have to calculate as well. On top of that, we have EPS as well.

We are not trying to increase the number of KPIs. ROA and ROE are the main KPIs, but in order to understand the true status of the company, ROTE is something that we want to look at. So this is our policy, and we also want to use it as an external announcement approach, but this is not really a KPI. I understand.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Second question is about shareholder return. Payout ratio, 39%. It was 33%, and also on top of that, there was some addition due to the abolishment of the shareholder benefit. But what is the background? What is the reason for this increase?

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

It's simple. We want to see our investors happy. Prime market average payout ratio is 37%, I think. And 37%-38% are not really impactful. So why not 39%? Well, I know that people asked us for 40%, but it was not possible.

So 39% is the number that we would like to show and get your understanding on. We don't know what is going to happen in the future, but we want to maintain growth. And we also have capital about JPY 4 trillion. So low payout ratio would not be something that would make the market happy, would be disappointing.

And also, for the retail investors, from fiscal year 2024 and March end, we stopped providing shareholders benefits. So we wanted to provide some additional return. This is how the decision was made. We thought maybe this could be lower in the beginning, but we want to have this endorsed by the investors, and that is why we decided on this number. I hope this answers your question.

Speaker 5

Yes, that was very clear. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Thank you for the question. The next person is Sasaki-san from Nomura Securities. Over to you.

Speaker 7

I am Sasaki from Nomura Securities. Hello. I have two questions. The first question is with regard to the hedging cost. In the presentation, I think you had explained about the hedging cost. And when you came out with a plan for this year, how did you reflect the hedging cost? In what way? And when you do make an investment overseas, you basically do hedge against it.

Have there been any changes to the policy, the hedging policy? And if you're going to proceed with globalization, do you always have to hedge whenever you make an overseas investment? I wonder. So would the hedging policy remain to be unchanged despite the fact that you'll be proceeding with the part of globalization?

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

So to begin with, you see, ORIX was a yen-based company. We started out that way. Therefore, we have been proceeding with investment overseas on a yen-denominated basis. Now we had expanded globally. Therefore, dollar-denominated outstanding balance of investment is $2.8 trillion, and in total of JPY 3.5 trillion worth of investment overseas that is denominated either on U.S. dollars or euro.

Therefore, is there any kind of benefit in hedging against those currencies on a yen basis? We had to question ourselves. This 160 JPY to a dollar, in fact, kind of posed us a question whether we should continue to maintain our capital in a very conservative way by hedging, even against the level of currency. But of course, on an adjusted forex basis, we would be making an adjustment on the final, of course, account.

But other than conservatively hedging for everything and anything, we may want to become a little more flexible considering deal by deal, whether hedging is necessary or not would be questioned. And so therefore, going forward, so this forex adjusted amount, even if there was to be any fluctuation, it would be adjusted on the balance sheet basis. It will not affect the P&L.

So this is why we may become a little more flexible, which means that the hedging cost going forward would not be based on a very conservative hedging policy, but I think we would turn a little more flexible. And that is at the basis of this earnings forecast or the plan, which means that in 25 March, so JPY 390 billion of a net profit expectations.

So this operation, in fact, there will be changes in your operation as well as this impact that you have just announced. Of course, if there was to be any kind of excess in terms of the plan, the target, then that would be the change that would be reflected if you could take it that way. Now, you had explained to us that there are a number of risks that you foresee.

Speaker 7

But for example, Mr. Inoue, in your idea, what would allow you to exceed your expectations in terms of the profit generation or the business opportunities or any kind of risks that may perhaps become smaller or whatever?

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

So 2024 March end, if you were to refer to the numbers, it was very much domestic-focused. In other words, the overseas location, we had faced difficulty, if we may conclude.So as for United States, if interest rate starts to, of course, get lower, the arbitrage would work, and therefore, the spread would, of course, spread or the other way around, which means that we may be able to increase our profit generation. But according to the announcement of the Fed, it doesn't look as if they are going to be lowering the interest rate immediately.

But if, of course, Mr. Trump becomes the president, sure, the interest rate may perhaps become lower, and they may perhaps cut the tax rate as well. So if U.S. would be led by Trump, then of course, things would be very different. But that would be after the next fiscal period, though. So as for U.S., it looks as if we will be hitting the bottom soon.

However, how much of an improvement can we make is very much dependent on how things would kind of proceed. So inclusive of the security in Europe, the volatility may perhaps increase over in Europe. So USA, if Trump becomes president, of course, things would become better. But if Trump is going to become the president, Europe may suffer more, and China may continue to struggle.

So this is why if domestic can maintain the current level of the businesses, then the United States would be an additional contributor, and Europe may not be. And Robeco AUM can be expanded. But as for Robeco, of course, the inflation, in fact, has not kind of calmed down. So therefore, 2025 number is still very difficult to or it does not have much of a visibility, that is.

So this is why we have carried out the downward revision from JPY 440 billion to JPY 400 billion to JPY 390 billion. These are at the backdrop. So if my forecast is not too conservative, then I think we would be able to exceed our current target of JPY 390 billion. So JPY 390 billion, in fact, is a minimum target that you feel the obligation to achieve. I don't want to really kind of drive myself into the corner, but that's my basic idea, incorporating all the risks. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Next, SMBC Nikko Securities. Muraki-san, please ask your question.

Masao Muraki (Senior Analyst)

This is Muraki, SMBC Nikko Securities. Page 12. Sorry, page 11. You are showing the financial leverage, and on page 11 and 12, you're showing your ROE. In order to increase ROE, what can be done? That is my question.

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

I don't think it's too difficult to achieve 10%, but regarding leverage, and if you increase to 10% or higher, maybe it's challenging to maintain that high level. So if the leverage is not increased, then as a method, for example, as you explained, shifting to asset management, introducing third-party money and earning fees, I think that would be the model that you would want to shift to. But in order to increase ROE for this fiscal year, what are the initiatives for asset management? What are the specific initiatives in Japan and outside?

Including the USA, we plan to launch funds. And if the capital already is trying to increase the funds AUM, and for domestic market, especially including Middle East, we are finding new investors who want to put money with ORIX. And of course, we have to deal with these situations one by one, which means that, for example, with private equity, how much AUM will we have?

We don't know yet. But anyway, we want to increase the AUM and increase the asset management fees. The challenge is, compared to principal investment, we will be using third parties' money, and profitability will be much lower in terms of fee. So we have to do both, in other words.

As was mentioned before, if we want to maintain level higher than 10%, then we need a lot of funding from the third party, and we have to think about various initiatives. Total asset may increase. The total number may increase, but ROE may get worse. So in order to avoid that situation, we have to think about our policy, how to best utilize capital and third parties' investment, and continue on the expansion path.

This is a major theme. And this is the direction we're already moving into this direction, but it will take some more time before we see the impact or the result of this. Thank you. Maybe it's not so much about earning fees, but you also mentioned that the project size is also increasing.

If you think about DHC, for example, as a deal, I think there's an advantage in going alone, investing 100% by yourself. But for large-scale deals, do you think we will see more and more joint investments? Yes, that is correct, including Middle East third-party investments coming into ORIX. This means co-investment funds type of approach. For example, we get 51%, and we will invite a 49% investment.

That would be the approach. But basically, according to accounting requirements, this 49% will be 100% on our balance sheet. So how to explain that externally is another issue. But anyway, U.S. GAAP requires us, when we get investment from different sources and ORIX invests 30% or 40% or even a majority, everything has to be on our balance sheet. So ROA, ROE do not improve, at least on the surface level. So how do we explain that properly externally?

And that is why we're talking about ROTE, showing that in parallel so that you can see how efficiently ORIX as a whole is being managed. So our next challenge is how to explain that externally.

Masao Muraki (Senior Analyst)

Understood. Thank you very much. [Foreign language] Thank you for the question.

Operator (participant)

The next person is SBI Securities. Otsuka-san, please.

Speaker 8

I am Otsuka from SBI Securities. I hope you can hear my voice okay.

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

Yes, we can.

Speaker 8

Thank you. So on page 15, I was referring to page 15, and I want to be asking questions about the PE investment. So 188 and 304, in fact, is so that is 420 of an increase, JPY 42 billion of an increase. So page 40, in fact, shows a breakdown by three categories and is a matrix with the segments. And according to Mr. Inoue's explanation, and I think you have been explaining over time, but on page 14, so in the operation, which area is going to increase ORIX growth in operations?

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

So first of all, Kansai Airport kicks in the last year about JPY 10 billion. I think it was a pickup on equity, and that should double. And also aircraft business. So we are proceeding with the acquisition of the aircraft in a significant way. And in addition, we would be selling those aircraft to Japanese investors. And also, the replacement of the fleet of the ships will take place as well. So JPY 40 billion worth of profit can be generated with these being set. And the Greenko, LRM, the assets, how can we capitalize on those assets? In other words, proceeding with the capital recycling, that is.

Taking all that into account, I think posting of such an amount of profit is quite possible, we thought. I'm sorry to go into much of the details, Mr. Inoue, but on page 14, Kansai Airport, in fact, is a facilities operation, right? So I thought that it is under investment. Or is it under the real estate facility operations of operation? Is that right?

So investment, in fact, if it is under equity method, it would be under investment. But the airport operation, after all, is under operation, although as an asset, it is held as an equity method. So I'm sorry that it is confusing. So as an operation, it is 100% operation for ORIX, real estate facility operation, that is. And of course, airport is included. In the case of Kansai International Airport, we own 40%.

However, there are about 10 people that are seconded from our company, and they are very much involved on day-to-day operations. So as to the operation of Kansai Airport, there's an overlap between operation and investments. I hope this would explain. So this JPY 188 and JPY 8.5 and JPY 230.44, in fact, includes Kansai Airport. Yes, it does. The operation, I mean. Yes. [Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much. It's almost time to close, and therefore, the next question will be the last. Citigroup Securities. Niwa-san, please ask your question.

Koichi Niwa (Analyst)

Thank you. This is Niwa from Citigroup. I hope you can hear my voice. Yes, we can hear you. Thank you. I would like to talk about the exit and also pipeline evaluation. JPY 1.2 trillion this time around. And last year, around this time, you said it was going to be JPY 1.5 trillion. And I think investment was quite successful last year, maybe.

But with regard to the pipeline, is it okay to expect something like JPY 2 trillion, or is it completely unrealistic? If you could explain, please. Well, pipeline. Well, we have more than JPY 2 trillion if we include all the good and bad things. And if we are selective, this is a number that we're talking about. And then out of that, after buying, can we increase the value? And can we do capital recycling and liquidate? And also, how can we capitalize the ORIX network?

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

We have to look at all of this, and then it would be basically about 50%. There are many inquiries, but it's becoming more and more competitive as well. And we don't want to buy at high price, so we have to be very carefully looking at these different deals. One good example of this is Santoku Senpaku. In the beginning, from the seller's perspective, we were basically out of the question, but they changed their minds, and they wanted to do with us. So we cannot say exactly how much, but we could purchase them at a very competitive rate. So there's inquiry. There's pipeline. Can we really buy at a good purchase price?

Then can we really increase the value after the investment? We have to be very discerning in all of these perspectives, which means that we cannot really process a large volume. But there's a lot in our pipeline, and we have sufficient projects that we can do. But of course, we have to be selective in terms of what deals we can do because it's a competitive landscape, and this stance has not really changed from before. I hope that answers your question.

Koichi Niwa (Analyst)

Yes, thank you for the details. Now, I would like to ask you about Life Insurance and also Banking low profitability businesses. In the presentation this time around, you talked about small upside of the Japanese economy. That was my understanding, which means that for these businesses, in terms of profitability expansion, maybe there's no more room. Is that the correct understanding? Or, once the monetary policy changes, should you continue to hold these businesses as core businesses because the profitability will change?

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

The monetary situation is changing, so I would like to understand your position, your stance about bank and insurance. Yes, for life insurance and bank, it's true that profitability is low. In order to increase the profitability, we are pressuring these teams. If the interest rate goes up, embedded value of life insurance company will increase. And then we will have maybe sufficient price to sell. If that is the case, we will not hesitate to sell. And this has been my policy over the last several years. It has not changed. And same story with the bank. We are asking the bank to increase the profitability.

Compared to other businesses, ROA seems to be good, but if we want to sell the bank, we can only sell at P/B ratio of 0.something times. We're not that desperate, so we only sell if the price is right. Same thinking as credit. If we have the buyer and the offer is attractive for us, then we will sell at that attractive price. So the policy is still unchanged.

Koichi Niwa (Analyst)

Thank you.

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

In order to increase ROE, I think what to do with this business is a big theme for ORIX. But still, you want to maximize the value. That is more important for us. Is that correct? Well, bank and life insurance, 0.5, 0.6, at this level, I don't think there's an advantage for us to sell. That is our assessment. It has to be sold at the right price. You may be dissatisfied, but ROA is 9% with ORIX, and we are approaching exceeding 10%. We want to pursue ways to maximize the value. That is the current direction of ORIX. I hope you understand.

Koichi Niwa (Analyst)

Thank you very much for your detailed explanation. That was very informative.

Operator (participant)

Thank you for the questions. With this, we'd like to conclude the Q&A session. I'd like to ask Mr. Inoue to provide us with closing remarks.

Makoto Inoue (President and CEO)

Well, this year, 2024, March end, the numbers were pretty good, as we have announced. It is not to our full satisfaction, JPY 390 billion-JPY 400 billion. Also, ROE of 10%-11% must be achieved, and it will require strenuous effort in order to achieve those goals. We would continue to seek for your support. Of course, during this time, of course, we would enhance the payout ratio so that we'll be able to align ourselves with your expectations. This is how we are going to be managing this business forward. Please continue to support us. With this, we'd like to conclude FY 2024 March end briefing session.

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much for your participation, and please disconnect.