JACK IN THE BOX INC (JACK) Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Q3 2025 revenue was $333.0M, down 9.8% year over year; diluted EPS $1.15 and non-GAAP Operating EPS $1.02. Same-store sales declined 7.1% at Jack in the Box and 2.6% at Del Taco .
Versus Wall Street consensus, JACK missed on revenue ($333.0M vs $340.2M*) and non-GAAP EPS ($1.02 vs $1.17*), while EBITDA was roughly in line ($61.6M vs $64.6M*) .
FY25 guidance was lowered: Adjusted EBITDA to $270–$275M (from $282–$292M) and Operating EPS to $4.55–$4.73 (from $5.05–$5.40); Capex cut to $85–$90M; $5.5M incremental Q4 marketing spend added .
Management pivoted to “Jack’s Way” operational reset and visible value (Bonus Jack combo, hot honey spicy chicken strips, potato wedges), with 18.5% digital mix and ~2,000+ POS installs completed; Q4 value-heavy window is a near-term catalyst .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Digital and tech execution: digital mix reached 18.5% at Jack in the Box, and >2,000 restaurants now have the new POS installed, with full rollout expected by month end .
New market performance: Chicago and Durham openings posted very high volumes; management expects “excellent performers” and highlighted strong openings underway (three opened, plan to reach eight in ~two months) .
Beverage funding helped food costs: Jack’s food and packaging as a % of sales declined 60 bps Y/Y in Q3, driven by a new beverage contract and price increases .

What Went Wrong

Broad sales pressure: Jack SSS down 7.1% (transactions down), Del Taco SSS down 2.6%; systemwide sales decreased 7.2% (Jack) and 4.7% (Del Taco) .
Margin compression: Jack restaurant-level margin fell to 17.9% from 21.0% Y/Y; Del Taco fell to 9.7% from 13.4% Y/Y, with higher labor, utilities, and commodity inflation .
Unit closures and impairment: JACK closed 21 restaurants (13 tied to block closures) and recognized $6.3M of goodwill/intangible impairment for Del Taco (non-cash) .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$469.4	$336.7	$333.0
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$1.75	($7.47)	$1.15
Operating EPS (non-GAAP) ($)	$1.92	$1.20	$1.02
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$97.2	$66.5	$61.6

Same-Store Sales (SSS) (%)	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Jack in the Box (System)	+0.4	(4.4)	(7.1)
Del Taco (System)	(4.5)	(3.6)	(2.6)

Margins	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Jack Restaurant-Level Margin %	23.2%	19.6%	17.9%
Jack Franchise-Level Margin %	40.9%	40.0%	39.3%
Del Taco Restaurant-Level Margin %	13.8%	12.8%	9.7%
Del Taco Franchise-Level Margin %	25.7%	24.4%	27.0%

KPIs and Activity	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Digital Mix (Jack)	—	~18% system-wide	18.5%
New POS Installs (Jack)	—	~1,500 locations	>2,000 locations; full rollout imminent
Jack openings / closures	5 / 6	5 / 12	6 / 21
Del Taco openings / closures	1 / 6	6 / 4	3 / 9

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	FY 2025	$282–$292	$270–$275	Lowered
Operating EPS ($)	FY 2025	$5.05–$5.40	$4.55–$4.73	Lowered
Capital Expenditures ($M)	FY 2025	$100–$105	$85–$90	Lowered
SG&A ($M)	FY 2025	—	$155–$160 (ex-COLI), includes $5.5M Q4 marketing	New detail
D&A ($M)	FY 2025	—	$57–$59	New detail
Adjusted/Operating EPS tax rate	FY 2025	~26%	~26%	Maintained
Share repurchases ($M)	FY 2025	~$5–$15	$5 (all in Q1)	Tightened
Jack SSS	FY 2025	Negative low–mid single digits	Negative low–mid single digits	Maintained
Jack gross openings	FY 2025	35–40	30–35	Lowered
Jack company RLM %	FY 2025	19–21%	19–21%	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1–Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Technology & Digital	Digital ~18% system-wide; POS + kiosks ~1,500 installs	Digital mix 18.5%; >2,000 POS installs; full rollout imminent; short-term downtime impacts mitigated	Positive execution; nearing rollout completion
Value & Menu Architecture	Barbell strategy emphasized; rolling over premium Smashed Jack comps	Visible value pivot (Bonus Jack combo, spicy chicken strips hot honey, potato wedges, munchie meals) and menu architecture rework to improve “good” entry points	Strengthening value communication
Macro/Consumer	Cautious consumer; SSS expected negative; CAL wildfire/weather effects	Continued caution; Hispanic and lower-income cohorts under pressure; category-wide softness	Ongoing headwind
Regulatory/Cost	AB1228 wage impact; Q2 wage inflation 10.6% (Jack) and 11.7% (Del)	Labor cost pressure persists; wage inflation 2–3% go-forward; utilities up	Moderating vs Q2 peak but elevated
Footprint Strategy	Refranchising Del; unit closures baseline; development pipeline (440 commitments)	“Jack on Track” block closures; plan to close 80–120 by YE2025; real estate sales ≥$100M; operational reimage plan to touch ~1,000 restaurants	Simplification and asset-light pivot
New Markets Performance	Chicago/Florida/Salt Lake development updates	Chicago openings strong; Durham entry strong; more units coming	Positive momentum

Management Commentary

“We need to get back to our barbell strategy and more specifically provide more demonstrable value… We are investing $5.5 million in incremental marketing across the fiscal fourth quarter” — Lance Tucker, CEO .
“Doing things Jack’s way means improving service quality and getting back to emphasizing operational excellence… modernize our restaurants… deploy a multiyear reimage initiative to touch at least 1,000 additional restaurants” .
“Over 2,000 restaurants now have the new point of sale system installed… anticipate the new POS will be fully rolled out… by the end of this month” .
“We expect adjusted EBITDA of $270–$275 million… and operating EPS of $4.55 to $4.73” — Dawn Hooper, CFO .
“We expect to sell real estate with proceeds of at least $100 million… most of which will occur within the next fiscal year” .

Q&A Highlights

Value cadence: Q4 will lean into price-pointed value (Bonus Jack combo) with media weight; late-night munchie meals and LTOs to bolster checks .
Block closures: 13 closures in Q3; 80–120 by YE2025; impact will spread over years with expected sales transfer benefits to nearby units .
Real estate monetization: at least $100M planned as a “balancer” for leverage reduction and strategy flexibility .
Margin sensitivity: ~10 bps restaurant margin change per 1% comp swing (Jack) .
Consumer mix: JACK significantly over-indexes on Hispanic consumer (≥1.7x relative to industry), making it more exposed in core markets under current macro .
Reimage interest: prior $50M program had >1,000 applications for 300–400 restaurants; plan is to touch ~1,000 more with meaningful corporate contribution (details in November) .

Estimates Context

Metric	Q2 2025 Actual	Q2 2025 Consensus*	Surprise	Q3 2025 Actual	Q3 2025 Consensus*	Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$336.7	$342.3*	Miss	$333.0	$340.2*	Miss
Primary EPS (Operating EPS) ($)	$1.20	$1.15*	Beat	$1.02	$1.17*	Miss
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$66.5 (Adj.)	$66.0*	~In line	$61.6 (Adj.)	$64.6*	Miss

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications: The Q3 miss on revenue and non-GAAP EPS suggests estimates may need to drift lower near-term, especially given lowered FY25 EBITDA and Operating EPS guidance, ongoing traffic softness, and added Q4 marketing investment .

Other Relevant Press Releases (Q3 Period)

Texas Double Jack flood relief (Texas): $1 per Texas Double Jack/Combo donated July 24–Aug 7 to American Red Cross; highlights franchisee engagement and brand equity in Texas .
No Kid Hungry partnership: 10-year milestone; September donation campaign with free curly fries coupon; reinforces community positioning .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term: Expect a value-led Q4 window; watch for improved comps from visible menu pricing/value and added media weight; monitor margin sensitivity to comp volatility (~10 bps per 1% comp) .
Medium-term: “Jack’s Way” operational reset and reimage plan could support traffic recovery and brand health; November details on reimage funding will be an inflection point .
Balance sheet actions: At least $100M real estate sales planned and discontinued dividend support leverage reduction; outcomes from Del Taco strategic alternatives are a major valuation catalyst .
Tech enablement: POS rollout completion and rising digital mix (18.5%) improve loyalty/data capabilities and ordering throughput; short-term downtime impacts are abating .
Cost headwinds: Utilities and labor (post-AB1228) remain elevated; wage inflation moderating to 2–3% go-forward; beverage funding offsets some food cost pressure .
Unit rationalization: Block closures should improve franchise portfolio health and unit economics; watch for sales transfer to remaining stores and cadence of closures through 2026 .
Estimates risk: Following Q3 misses and lowered FY25 guidance, sell-side numbers likely recalibrate lower; stock reaction will hinge on evidence of comp stabilization under the value strategy and clarity on asset monetization .

Notes: All financial results and commentary cited from JACK’s Q3 2025 8-K earnings release and call unless otherwise indicated. Values marked with * in Estimates Context are retrieved from S&P Global.