JBS - Earnings Call - Q3 2025
November 14, 2025
Transcript
Speaker 10
Good morning and welcome to JBS's Third Quarter of 2025 Results Conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Any statements eventually made during this conference call in connection with the company business outlook, projections, operating and financial targets, and potential growth should be understood as merely forecasts based on the company's management expectations in relation to the future of JBS. Such expectations are highly dependent on the industry and market conditions and therefore are subject to change. Our present with us today: Gilberto Tomazoni, Global CEO of JBS; Guilherme Cavalcanti, Global CFO of JBS; Wesley Batista Filho, CEO of JBS USA; and Christiane Assis, Investor Relations Director. Now I'll turn the conference over to Gilberto Tomazoni, Global CEO of JBS. Mr.
Tomazoni, you may begin your presentation.
Speaker 3
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. The third quarter of 2025 once again demonstrated the strength and consistency of JBS, a global multi-protein platform, and more important, how we operate with discipline, agility, and resilience. We achieved a record net sales with growth across all business units. This performance reinforced the balance and scales of our operation and showed our ability to manage the platform proactively, mitigating the impact of local market cycles. Net income reached $581 million, and the return on equity over the last 12 months was 23.7%, reflecting solid, sustainable performance. We continue to navigate a challenging current cycle in the U.S., marked by historically high prices and tight supply. Even in this environment, JBS Beef North America delivered a record net revenue supported by resilient domestic demand.
While cattle availability remained limited, consumption held steady, and the team continues to execute with discipline. Although cut-out value remained elevated, they were not sufficient to offset higher cattle costs. Australia was a clear highlight. Profitability stayed strong, supported by improved cattle availability and healthy global demand. The region continues to play an important role in diversifying our geographic exposure and balancing results across protein. In Brazil, Friboi delivered another consistent quarter with solid performance in both export and domestic sales. The team strengthened relationships with the key customers through our value creation approach and remained focused on operational excellence and disciplined execution. Seara also posted another quarter of consistent results in a period still impacted by restrictions to export to Europe and China, which have recently been relieved. The business maintained healthy margins, driven by a disciplined commercial strategy, effective mix management, and continuous innovation in its product portfolio.
Initiatives such as the launch of high-protein ready meals, the development of a dedicated air fryer portfolio, and a partnership that brings the brand closer to the consumer, including with Netflix, illustrate our growing commitment to innovation and value creation. In the United States, our chicken and pork business also remained resilient. Pilgrim's Pride continues to grow, supported by a diversified portfolio and ongoing efficiency gains. The prepared food segment stood out, with sales rising more than 25% in the US, while operations in Europe and Mexico also outperformed their market. In pork, lower grain costs and steady demand created a positive environment, though supply constraints continued to limit overall market growth. These results show how we operate in our global platform, manage scale efficiency, share knowledge across the region, and make quick, informed decisions to protect performance.
We continue to invest in innovation and value-added products as part of our long-term strategy. Strengthening brands and expanding higher margin categories remain central to sustainable growth. We end the period with a leverage of 2.39 times, fully aligned with our long-term targets. Overall, the company remains stable and well-positioned. Global protein demand continues to rise, and JBS is prepared to capture this growth with a balanced portfolio, solid execution, and a long-term perspective. Thank you again for joining us today. I will now turn the call over to Guilherme, who will be walking through the financial results and more details.
Speaker 8
Thank you, Tomazoni. Let's now move on to the operational and financial highlights of the third quarter of 2025. Net sales for third quarter of 2025 reached a record of $22.6 billion. Adjusted EBITDA in IFRS totaled $1.8 billion, which represents a margin of 8.1% in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA in U.S. GAAP comparable totaled $1.6 billion, which represents a margin of 7.2% in the quarter. Adjusted operating income was $1.3 billion, with a margin of 5.5% in IFRS and 5.6% in U.S. GAAP comparable. Net income was $581 million in the quarter and earnings per share of $0.52. Excluding non-recurring items, adjusted net income would be $602 million and earnings per share of $0.54 per share. Finally, the return on equity was 24%, and the return on invested capital was 17%.
The free cash flow of the third quarter of 2025 was $383 million, representing a difference of $612 million compared to the third quarter of 2024, mainly due to the following factors. Adjusted EBITDA decreased $319 million, but excluding non-cash items, we have a reduction of $230 million, driven by the impacts of the beef cycle in the U.S., avian flu in Seara, and higher cattle costs in JBS Brazil. An increase of $226 million in capital expenditures, mainly growth CapEx. An increase of $258 million in working capital, mainly reflecting higher revenues and costs resulting from the increasing livestock prices. Our cash conversion cycles in days remained stable in relation to the previous quarter.
Not considering a guidance, but simply updating the cash flow break-even EBITDA exercise, it is expected to increase to $6 billion in 2025 and to $5 billion in 2026, driven by capital expenditures, $2 billion in 2025, and $2 billion in 2026, already including maintenance CapEx, although the 2026 budget is still to be approved. Working capital expected to increase to $1.3 billion in 2025 and $700 million in 2026. The 2025 increase in nominal terms is related to higher prices, higher sales volumes, increased cost of livestock, and fulfilling the pipeline of organic expansions. It is worth mentioning that 2026 working capital depends on variables not in control of the company, like grains and livestock prices. Legal settlements of $400 million in 2025. Biological assets of $650 million in both 2025 and 2026. Interest expenses of $1.15 billion in 2025 and $1.15 billion in 2026.
Leasing expenses of $500 million for 2025 and 2026. Last week, we completed another debt issuance in Brazilian capital markets. The total amount of agribusiness receivables certificate was approximately BRL 570 million, with two-thirds placed in a 40-year tranche, the longest ever completed in the Brazilian capital markets. As a result, our proforma average debt maturity reached 15.4 years, with an average cost of 5.6% per year. Leverage increased to 2.39 times in the third quarter against the second quarter of 2025, primarily due to a $319 million decline in the last month of EBITDA and the payment of $362 million in share buyback. In this regard, we announced the completion of a $600 million share buyback program. We believe this represents an efficient use of cash, given the current valuation multiples relative to our global peers, and the leverage at comfortable levels.
Even with the share buyback program completed and the $1.2 billion dividends paid and the approximately expansion CapEx of $1 billion, we expect to end the year with leverage below 2.5 times. Our $3.4 billion revolving credit lines and $4 billion available cash, combined with the expected cash generation in the coming quarter, provide us with the flexibility to continue executing our expansion CapEx and value creation projects while maintaining a healthy and robust balance sheet. With that in mind, I would like to open the question and answer session.
Speaker 10
Thank you. The floor is now open for questions from investors and analysts. If you have a question, please click the raise hand at this time. Okay, thank you. Our first question is from Mr. Lucas Moussey from Morgan Stanley. Go ahead, Mr. Moussey.
Speaker 12
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I have two quick ones. The first one is related to the expansion CapEx, the ongoing expansion CapEx, especially related to the pork expansion, the two plants in Iowa. If you could share more details on what should we expect as it pertains to revenue expansion or volume expansion into next year as you start opening up those additional capacity expansions in U.S. pork. My second question is related to U.S. chicken.
The third quarter results, the PPC, were very solid, especially in the U.S., but given that chicken prices are significantly down, are significantly down into the fourth quarter, if you could give us an update on what you are seeing in the fourth quarter as it pertains to profitability, especially in the U.S., if maybe the commodity part is suffering a bit, but a bit more resilient on the other part of the portfolio. Coming into 2026, if you still see a solid supply and demand outlook, given USDA's still very constrained outlook on chicken supply in the U.S., also in the light that one of your competitors was talking about cycling through a new genetic line that was a bit better than the one that was being used in the last two years or so.
Maybe a little bit more details on US chicken dynamics, both a bit on the short term and looking in 2026. Those are my questions. Thank you, everyone.
Speaker 3
Lucas, good morning. On the expansions we are doing in prepared foods in the U.S., it is two plants that we announced in Iowa, right? One is the Perry plant where we are going to produce sausage, and the other one is in Ankeny where we are going to do further ready-to-eat bacon and ready-to-eat sausage. Those are very complementary to what we are doing today. We produce a lot of bacon in the U.S. We are going to start producing sausage that is going to be, you know, it is going to use a lot of our trims, a lot of the meat that will come from our sow meat that we are going to harvest in that same plant.
It's very complementary on the supply side of our business and very complementary on the business, on the sell side as well, because there is a lot of demand right now from our customers there. We think it's going to be a quick ramp-up, that's what I'm getting at, for those plants. Next year, you're not going to see any impact because they're going to still be under construction, finalizing, and we're just breaking ground right now in one of those plants, and the other one, it's going to be more putting equipment and lead time for the equipment. You're not going to see anything for next year.
2027 is when you're going to start seeing a ramp-up and start for us to start doing, you know, starting to see the revenue and the extra margin that's going to come from those businesses in our pork division. Those two businesses, you could expect something around $500 million-$750 million of revenues as we ramp it up, so something like that. We see the margin for this extra business in the higher double-digit margins for that. We are very excited about that, and we think it's going to be a relatively quick ramp-up for these plants, given the complementarity on the supply side and on the sale side.
Speaker 8
Related to the chicken that you are mentioning, that the drop in the price in the U.S. market, we see that drop in the price on the big bird segment. What I think is they found a limit for growth. In the last weeks, they a little bit increased in terms of the price. When you look for PPC, PPC has a balanced portfolio. We have small birds, we have middle birds, and we have big birds, and we have prepared. Prepared is part of our portfolio. We remain confident about the chicken market next year in the U.S., even in Brazil, because even that we see that increase in terms of the one-day chicken, we see that the product is limited because we have a restriction in the infrastructure and the availability of genetics. You mentioned the new genetics of COVID.
Yes, there is a new genetic of COVID. It still starts to go to the market, but it is not something that you put in the market. It's a quick reaction because you talk about genetics. You have time to get to the market. In our view, we will be more availability of chicken, but the export market remains very, very strong. If you have in consideration that Brazil, that this year will be, so if the year today, they are flat compared to the last year, and export market is a lot of demand because if you just make the comparison with pork, pork, Brazilian pork is 14% more than the last year, and chicken is flat. It is because chicken, the availability of chicken to export because of some market was closed, and now also limited, as you can mention, Europe and China.
I think next year will be, we see that there will be a strong market export from Brazil. We see the market from the U.S. See, look, we are still with this growth in terms of one-day chicken, place it. We remain very confident about next year.
Speaker 12
Very clear. Thank you very much, Tomazoni, Wesley.
Speaker 10
Thank you. Our next question is with Isabella Cimanado with Bank of America. Go ahead, Mrs. Cimanado.
Speaker 11
Hi, everyone. Thank you very much for taking my question. I think, as you guys have been mentioning, right, and Guilherme, you mentioned a higher working capital consumption given higher raw material prices, but also given growth, right? I wanted to maybe reconciliate when you look at the top-line growth of this quarter or the year to date, right, and you try to look at the volume growth, can you tell us, I mean, how much came from, first of all, what was the volume growth overall, and how much came from expansion and new operating lines and etc.? Because I think at some point we have a tough time, right, looking at the expansion CapEx you have been doing and that you should continue to do it, translate that into top-line growth, right, which has actually been quite strong.
If you could break down, I mean, what has been as a result of top-line growth of your organic expansion, I think that would be quite helpful. Second, going back to the chicken market, and especially in Brazil, right, both bans from Europe and China have been removed. If you guys could explore a little bit how you've been seeing the export market now in the fourth quarter and the dynamic also of mix, and that includes the domestic market of Seara, I would appreciate. Thank you.
Speaker 8
Hi, Isabella. The major part of the working capital consumption was really due to prices. In terms of volumes, I would highlight Pilgrim's Pride and JBS Brazil had an increase in volumes of 3%, and Seara, which we have been making investments in organic expansion, we had volumes growing in 8%. On the other hand, again, we have been in some business units price going up 16%, sometimes 24%. Basically, the main variable, it was prices that made this first increase revenues, increasing costs, and consequently increase in working capital. The question about, Isabella, about the chicken market, if I understood well, it's about the Brazilian chicken market, how we see that export market in this next quarter and next year. Is it correct?
Speaker 11
Yes, especially because the main headwind, which was the ban, right, from China and Europe, I understand that's gone.
Speaker 8
Yes, yes. They just lifted the restriction from Europe and from China. And know that this is a two-important market from Brazil because Brazil is they optimize the mix of the carcass, and these two markets play a very important role. Even for Seara, it is much more impact because Seara has a strong market share in Europe, and then to reopen Seara for Seara makes a lot of difference. And of course, for China, for all of the markets, it made a lot of difference. Seara is the leader in the export market from Brazil. They are suffering more than the others. But now I see that the strong market, we do not see any constraint in terms of demand.
We are strong demand, and we see that next year we will continue this demand because overall, we see that demand for protein remained very strong, not just for chicken, but for beef and for pork. Look, Brazil export this year compared to last year, year to date, 14% more pork, and chicken was stable. Stable because of restrictions. Next year, I think Brazil will get the same track as before. Even there is more, I mentioned before when I answered the question, we see there is more chicken in the market, but the limit to grow, there is a limit to grow because infrastructure, you are not building the chicken house very easy. You have some genetic restriction to increase production. Even that was mentioned before, the new genetic from COVID, but it will take time to go to the market and to be effective.
We do not see, really, we see more volume next year, but we see demand more than compensated.
Speaker 11
Understood. Thank you very much.
Speaker 10
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mrs. Heather Jones with Heather Jones. You may go ahead, Mrs. Jones. Mrs. Jones, your microphone might be muted.
Speaker 7
Hello. Are you able to hear me now?
Speaker 10
Yes, go ahead.
Speaker 7
Okay. Thank you for taking the questions and good morning. My questions are related to the US red meat business. I guess first on the North American beef business, the volatility that we've seen in futures in the futures curve recently, just wondering if you could help us understand how that may affect your Q4 results. My second question is on pork. The sequential improvement in y'all's results stands in sharp contrast to industry benchmarks as well as your competitors. I was just wondering if you could explain what drove that strong sequential improvement despite what was really tight spreads, etc. Thank you.
Speaker 3
Hi, Heather. This is Wesley. On the beef volatility, for sure, when you have markets, you know, futures being as volatile as it did, it creates instability in results. It could impact. On the other hand, it is showing a decrease in cattle costs. On the other hand, it could help a little bit too. Cut out is suffering a little bit in the recent weeks. When you have instability like that in the futures, it is always a challenge because it could create losses for us with our hedging position. Overall, you know, on top of just the futures being more volatile, margins have been tighter on the fourth quarter so far than third quarter. They are usually tighter on the fourth quarter than third quarter, just historically anyway.
Yeah, I think that could create a challenge for the fourth quarter on the beef business. On the pork side, Heather, this pork business that we operate in the U.S., I think there, I don't know, you know, what I can say about our business is we have very good plants. You know, all of our plants are, you know, four of our five plants are double-shift plants. They're very modern. They're very well invested. We've been adding a lot of value added in our business. If you went back in history, we would be producing very little prepared foods. Nowadays, it's becoming more and more of a bigger business of ours. We intend to grow, as I mentioned in the last answer to Lucas. The other thing too, it's a business that we've developed that we're, you know, it's very integrated.
We are integrated on the live side. We're integrated on the prepared side. We have key customers that are very good for us. I don't know how to pinpoint one thing or another, Heather. I think I couldn't do that because it's a lot of very little, a lot of things. And it's a very consistent business of ours. Operation excellence is a big deal in that business. If you look at our margins historically, they're pretty stable, and it's a pretty stable business for us. I mentioned, you know, on the last call in the second quarter that, you know, it was a little bit of a tougher quarter for us, that margins were going to come back, and here we are. They are back. I'm still pretty optimistic about the fourth quarter as well. It's a pretty good business for us, Heather.
I don't know how to put it in a different way. It's a business that's very consistent and very integrated on both sides and operates at a very high level.
Speaker 7
Okay. Thank you so much.
Speaker 3
Thank you.
Speaker 10
Thank you. Our next question comes from Tiago Duarte with BTG. Go ahead, Mr. Duarte.
Speaker 2
Hi, good morning. Thank you very much. Hello, Tomazoni, Wesley, Guilherme, everybody. I have two questions here. The first one is actually an extension of some of the remarks that Guilherme made during the presentation regarding capital allocation. You mentioned the share buyback and the dividends and how comfortable you remain with the leverage of the company towards the end of this year. My question is, how M&A opportunities fit into this strategy? Over the past several months, there have been rumors about JBS participating in potential bids for different companies, especially in the US. My first question is really about how confident or not you are that you will have M&A opportunities to invest, and particularly in the prepared food segments, which has been one of the main targets, as you have been saying for quite some time. That is the first question.
The second question is, I think, more to Wesley. There's an interesting chart in the company's presentation where you show the retail price for US beef, pork, and chicken. And what we have been seeing is that, you know, beef retail prices are close to all-time high. Chicken and pork prices haven't really followed suit, even though they remain higher, but they haven't been following suit. And the price ratio between beef and the other proteins is also at the all-time high, right? So my question to you, Wesley, is how do you see those trends unfolding going forward, right? Should we think more about beef demand at some point cooling off because of high prices and hampering further price hikes, or do you believe that these high beef prices will continue to offer support for the other proteins to just continue to rise and catch up with beef, right?
I think that's how you see this very unique situation of protein prices and how the consumer will behave on the back of that. Those are my questions. Thank you so much.
Speaker 8
Hi, Tiago. In terms of capital allocation, I think small M&As, I think, as you can see, we have leverage, and we have cash generation to couple with that. There is no big M&A that we are looking at the moment. In case it appears a good opportunity, the first thing that I am going to do is, because I want to keep investment grade, is to hire ratings assessment from rating agencies. At the end of the day, rating agencies will tell me what will be the capital structure that I should have in terms to pursue that M&A. Today, we have more flexibility in shares, given that we have two classes of shares, and they are listed in ISIC. At the end of the day, I am very confident that we can pursue any type of M&A once the opportunity appears.
The end of the capital structure will be dictated by the rating agencies.
Speaker 3
Tiago, a few things about these beef prices and beef prices versus pork and chicken. First thing, I mean, just supply and demand, beef prices are going to be at the sort of levels where they are as long as supply is, you know, tight. When supplies, you know, increase, obviously, you're going to see probably these prices, you know, fall, and the market adjusts to a more normal level. This is just what we should expect, and it is what has happened in the past. Having said that, I think it is a big testament to the demand of beef to see, you know, even entry-level beef items like ground beef being at the price levels where they are, and there is still strong demand for it.
It's just a big testament for the quality of the product and just the structural demand that there is for all those products. Now, as it relates to pork and chicken, again, there is some, obviously, substitution, you know, between the three proteins. And obviously, when beef is expensive and, you know, people, you know, beef, pork, and chicken are good options for somebody who's, you know, trying to find an affordable, a more affordable option than beef. It kind of generates, it drives a little bit of demand for pork and chicken. And we, obviously, as long as we have tight beef supplies, we're going to see higher demand for other proteins as well. Yeah, that's what we've been seeing. Now, is it going to be a lot more than what it is? I don't know. It depends a lot on these beef supplies.
I think it's, you know, we're getting very close here to the bottom of the trough of this cattle supply shortage. I think, you know, we'll see what happens. If we have more demand, if we have more supply for beef, we should see beef fall and that come back to a normality. If not, then obviously, chicken and pork is a big option for a budget, you know, for a more affordable protein solution.
Speaker 2
Thank you so much.
Speaker 10
Thank you. Our next question is from Gustavo Troiano with Itaú. You may go ahead, Mr. Troiano.
Speaker 0
Hello, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one is on Seara, actually, and more focused on processed foods here in the domestic markets. Some competitors reported strong margins and volumes in the quarter. I just wanted to touch base on how is your margin performing in the segment in the quarter and what we could expect for these margins going forward. If you could comment also on the ramp-up of the Hollandaise plant that we discussed a couple of quarters ago, and if we could expect more volumes to come within the processed food segments here in Brazil would be great. The second question relates to Australia, actually. We saw higher cattle prices in the region in the quarter, and despite that, margins remain quite resilient.
I just wanted to understand a little bit more what to expect for the fourth quarter because cattle prices kept increasing. I just wanted to hear from you guys. How do you see the balance between demand for Australian beef and supply going forward to understand a little bit more on the margins in the region? If you could comment on the beef margins going forward and also how the other businesses in Australia are performing, such as Walnut or the processed foods operations compared to the beef margins that you reported in the quarter, that would be great. Thank you very much.
Speaker 8
Thank you for the question, Gustavo. Related to Seara, I think Seara is just mentioned about the performance of the brand. The hold-out penetration of the brand increased compared to the last year. We have increased the penetration. The good things about the penetration that we grow in repurchasing more than the last year means that the brand is strong. We are gaining preference. We gain top of market, top of mind because of our leadership in innovation. We are bringing new things from the market. The brand is very, very healthy, and we are growing the brand. We are growing the margins, and we are growing the volume and prepare. You ask specifically about the Hollandaise. Hollandaise is a full, double-shift and breaded product. The other part of sauces and hot dogs, and we are working full.
We are now thinking about the expansion of the plant. Means that the Hollandaise, we are in reality, we built the builder. The build was prepared for the expansion. Now, we are investing part of them. We have put the machines. Now, this machine is full. Now, we are considered to expand. In terms of volume, we are not disclosed margin by category, but I can share with you that in terms of volume, we have grown in the domestic market quarter last year with quarter of this year, 70% in terms of volume in the domestic market. In terms of price, we have increased 5.5% in terms of price with combining all of the products we sell in the domestic market. Go to Australia. Australia is, they are performing very well. I know that the price of live cattle increased, but demand from Australia is very strong.
We export 75% of what we produce in Australia. Our operation there is a strong focus on export. In export of beef, strong demand. Hello? Is demand strong from Brazil? Is strong from Australia? The demand of beef is strong because we increased the income of the population and because of this trend of the new generation want to eat more protein and because of the adoption of the new drugs in the cell, the GLP-1 and so on. Look, we see for the next year, we are very confident about the business there. Availability of cattle is good. The other business, like the salmon business that we have there, we had in the past some challenge in terms of the disease. This is over. We are now performers in more than 20% of margin of this business there. Pork is going very, very well.
We are increasing the productivity. We share in best practices with Brazil, with the U.S. that bring a lot of leverage for our business there. We are investing in to update all of the farms that we have there. That helps us to increase yield, increase productivity. I say, look, we are bullish in the Australian business that we have there. I think next year, we are seeing strong results from Australia as well.
Speaker 0
That's super clear. Thank you very much.
Speaker 10
Thank you. Next, we have Ben Thur with Barclays. You may go ahead, Mr. Thur.
Speaker 4
Hi, yeah, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my question as well. Two quick ones. One on the beef side, I mean, obviously, a lot being talked about. There's still a lot of constraints. Maybe, Wesley, can you elaborate a little bit on what you're seeing in the market in terms of rebuild of the herd, how you think about 2026, the challenges maybe with an even tighter market if there's going to be some retention? Just to get a little bit of a sense how to think about 2026 in the U.S. beef business versus 2025. My second question is related to working capital. I remember back in the second quarter, you've talked a lot about building inventory, putting into the cold storage because of the product that wasn't shipped out to China.
I just want to understand how we should think about the timing and the delay to basically put into our models as to when this inventory is supposed to come down a little bit. How long is it going to take you to ship this out? Thank you.
Speaker 3
Hey, Ben. So when it comes to beef, so 2026, yeah, we're seeing heifer retention. It's happening. Female retention overall. You know, just a piece of data. You know, this quarter, USDA numbers, we processed 545,000 non-fed, or the cow's litter was 545,000. Just as a reference, Q3 of 2022 was 973,000. So we're almost half of the cow kill of a few years ago. So, I mean, it's a very important number, in my opinion. And we're seeing, you know, also just, you know, our team members traveling and meeting people, seeing that, you know, it is happening. So, yeah, we think 2026 will still be a challenging year from a supply perspective. And then probably from there, it starts getting gradually better. It's not going to be an overnight, you know, get completely better, but it's going to be a gradual improvement from 2027 forward.
That's how we're seeing this. On the working capital side for pork, it was a very, very short-term thing that was restricted to the second quarter of 2025, did not carry forward into the third quarter. We cleared all of that inventory that had issues, you know, because of all the tariffs going back and forth. No worry about that.
Speaker 4
Yep. The working capital was more related to, like, out of Brazil on what you had to build because of avian influenza, actually, on the Seara side. Yeah, no, no worries. I mean, helpful on the pork side as well. Thanks, Wesley.
Speaker 5
I don't see that Seara is, we sell all of the additional number. I think it's volume yet because avian flu, I don't see any Seara is normal, the inventory of Seara. We don't see pork. We sell a lot. We are the leader in this pork part. We are the leader in this pork chicken. I think it's normal.
Speaker 4
Okay. I'll take it to the follow-up. Thank you very much.
Speaker 10
Thank you. Next, we have Mr. Ben Mayhew from Bank of Montreal. Go ahead, Mr. Mayhew.
Speaker 6
Hey, thank you for taking the questions. First question is just on Seara. Just wanted to revisit the headwind with the China-EU export bans on chicken. Is there any way to quantify the headwind during third quarter and, you know, the expected recovery pace of that headwind? That'll be my first question. Second question has to do with just the Brazil and Australian cattle offsets for the U.S. And just remind us on the beef cycles there. So it's my understanding that Brazil, the cycle plays out kind of first where availability gets tighter. And then second is Australia with kind of a longer tail and more of a hedge against the pressures that we're seeing in the U.S. If you could just elaborate on that a little more. Thanks.
Speaker 8
Yes, that the constraints to the restriction to export to China and Europe plays a big role in terms of Seara export, in terms of portability of Seara because Seara has the strong market share in Europe. Europe is the premium market of breasts. Reopen Europe, make a lot of impact in the Seara P&L because we keep producing the breast, and we are not able to export to Europe. We change this volume for the other market. When we go to the other market with this extra volume, we have a pressure in this market with extra volume. Now we can back to re-export to Europe. That means that we reduce the pressure in the other market. The other market will be helped to increase the margin as well for the breast. This is a huge impact.
It's difficult to say how is the impact because there is a conjoint impact in the business. The other thing about China, China plays a very important role in terms of the optimization of the carcass. The wings that we sold to China is a premium market compared to the other markets. Of course, it's the same I explained about Europe, about breast. The wings is the same. We move the wings from China to the other markets. Now we are back to sell wings to China. The other things that are important that the feet and paws that we are not market for all of the feet and paws that we have. Now we reopen. That is reopened. It will make really extra revenue from the company. Look, this is very important impact in the Seara business.
About the increase in the price of livestock in Australia and Brazil. Yes, this increased the price, but the cattle more than compensate the increase in the price of the live cattle. We see strong demand from Australia. We are sold out our volume in Australia. We are not seeing that this will be an impact. Next year for Australia will be a strong year. In Brazil, yes, Brazil, there is some reduction in the herds, the availability of cattle. The reduction is considered the top we got this year and last year. We grew more than 20%. Now, some restrictions, but still much higher than before. Means that the market in Brazil will be keep, we see a strong market next year as well.
Speaker 3
Just to complement, obviously that there is a, you know, as the U.S. exports a lot less, especially to Asian countries and other North American countries, it is a direct correlation to U.S. or to Australia and Brazil export volumes being stronger, right? As we need more domestic beef in the U.S., we keep more beef in the U.S., export less out of the U.S., automatically you're going to see an advantage to our businesses in Australia and Brazil. That is a very important correlation that helps minimize the impact of the beef cycle in the U.S.
Speaker 6
Thank you, guys. That's very helpful.
Speaker 10
Thank you. Next question comes from Carla Casella with JPMorgan. Go ahead, Mrs. Casella.
Speaker 15
Hi, thank you for the question. You mentioned the Brazilian debt financing that you did. I'm just wondering, you know, was that sold to the public markets or are there any concentration there of holders? I'm not sure if you gave a rate that you're paying on that.
Speaker 8
Hi, Carla. About the rate, yes, that depends on the tranches. We had tranches. The longest one was a four-year tranche, was inflation plus 8%, but on a swapped basis, when you swap to dollars, it is dollar plus 6.2%. All the tranches were launched at the rate that is inside our bond curve in the U.S. That is one condition for any debt issuance, that it has to be inside my investment grade curve. That is what happened with these local debentures that we issued. There was a lot of individual investors demanded, but also treasuries from banks that generally continue to be selling to individual investors throughout the next months because individual investors have a tax exemption on this kind of local debentures. That is the reason why on a swapped basis, it is issued inside my bond curve.
Speaker 15
Okay. That's great. I mean, you have cash flow in Brazil. Do you see over time putting more or less debt in Brazil, or are you well balanced where you'd like to be now in terms of Brazilian debt versus US debt?
Speaker 8
Right. Yeah. Of my revenues, 12% of my total revenues is generated in Brazilian reais. Currently, I have around 10% of my debt in Brazilian reais. I still have some room to put some local debentures debt and to balance and have no need to hedge. I have this currency. I do not have currency exposure. I still have some room to have more real debt, but not that much. I am almost where I would want to be in terms of currency exposure balance that is my debt in reais. It is more or less equivalent to my reais revenues.
Speaker 15
Okay. That's great. Just one other question. You mentioned the 2.5 times leverage target for year-end. Is that using IFRS EBITDA or US Comp EBITDA?
Speaker 8
Yes, IFRS EBITDA. So we'll be below 2.5 times in IFRS EBITDA.
Speaker 15
Okay. Great. Thank you very much.
Speaker 8
Thank you, Carla.
Speaker 10
Our next question comes from Enrique Bristolan with Bradesco BBI. You may go ahead, Mr. Bristolan.
Speaker 1
Hello, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. A few follow-ups here on Seara as well. First, the seasonal offerings now at year-end have been gaining, I think, relevance in your portfolio. I would just like to hear a little more on how, you know, your expectations are for this year-end, especially thinking about the domestic market here in Brazil. The second, on the production growth that we see for the Brazilian market, right, there is the data of 7% growth in the breeder flock placements in Brazil this year. I know there are some bottlenecks, so I would just like to hear from you if you see that as a good proxy for what we should think about supply growth going forward. Or again, if given bottlenecks, it could be a smaller number.
The third one, on the export prices, we see this softening of export prices at the margin, as you mentioned, Tomazoni. The question is whether that is entirely related to the points you mentioned before about relocation of volumes from Europe and China to these other markets, or if you also see maybe some signs of weakness in some specific markets. I think that would be really helpful in terms of thinking how Seara will shape up going forward. Thanks very much.
Speaker 8
Thank you, Enrique, for the question. First, the question for the speed of that we see that this has become more and more important because we develop a portfolio of the product to attend this market. It is the crystal market that we have a Fiesta and some other product. The market is we plan to grow above the next year. We are seeing a strong market. Just this morning before having this call, I talked with the people from Seara. How is going the operation, crystal operation? They say they are very confident and happy with the demand so far. Of course, the first demand goes to the retail and the second demand you need to the consumers buy the product in the shelf. So far, we are seeing strong demand from the retails.
We are not seeing that any constraint in terms of the volume to sell in the end. Some news about the Brazilian market is the retail market is constrained. For our category, we are not seeing these constraints. We are selling not just the product for the crystal event, but just the current product, the portfolio we have. We are selling well. We are not seeing these constraints in our portfolio. The second question, if I understood it about export, correct?
Speaker 1
It's about exports and prices, whether that's related to the redirecting of volumes. The other one was about the production growth, if the 7% breeder flock is.
Speaker 8
Okay. Thank you. About the we see now with this reopen Europe and reopen China, we see real we are opportunity for increase the price because some of the market with the extra volume I mentioned before was the present because not just us, but all of the Brazilian need to sell in this. The market there is for this product, mainly for breast and wings. See now the opportunity for this product to grow in terms of price. We are seeing some movements already in the market. Yes, the average price for Seara will be higher for sure because even we are not increase the price or just access the premium market, it will be increase our average price.
What is the challenge in terms of volume or price in the external market is the small birds that go to the Middle East. This remains a very, very challenged market because there is local production and before, it was a big market for Brazilian small birds, the grillers. Now we compete with the local production. If you consider all of the market, we consider this is the most difficult market. About the increase in terms of the genetic, you mentioned that the breeders, yes, but they increase, but they need increase in order to replace the old ones because we have restrictions in terms of availability of genetic breeders before.
All of the market, all of the Brazilian producers keep longer the bullets, the breeders in the farms in order to compensate the not availability of the new ones. This is not good in terms of productivity because when they get older, the eggs that you come from them is less achievability, more mortality. Now it is an opportunity to have a more healthy age in terms of breeders. Brazil, I mentioned before that if you look at Brazil in this year with a strong demand for external market, strong demand for protein, we are not growing. We are not growing because a lot of restrictions really that come from the avian flu. I believe that next year the export from Brazil will be strong. As we saw now in the last month, it was one of the record export from Brazil.
I believe that Brazil will be compensate next year what we are not able to export this year for the market.
Speaker 1
That's very clear, Tomazoni. Thanks very much.
Speaker 10
Thank you. Next question comes from John Baumgartner with Mizuho. You may go ahead, Mr. Baumgartner.
Speaker 9
Good morning. Thanks for the question. I'd like to ask about JBS Brazil. You know, thinking forward from here on the revenue side, can you speak to how resilient you expect domestic demand will be given higher prices, just your expectations for resilience there? Then second, how export opportunities are evolving for Brazil? I'm curious about maybe the structural opportunities to diversify exports across Asia, you know, Korea, Japan, maybe some opportunities to supply more into Mexico, the trade deal with the EU and Mercosur. How do you think about new export opportunities for Brazil that are longer lasting? In 2026 specifically, the ability for any incremental demand from exports to support prices and minimize the pressure on profit margins from higher cattle costs. Thank you.
Speaker 8
Thank you for the question, John. See, look, JBS Brazil is we have other correlated business we put together, but the main business is Friboi, is all of the beef, our beef business. We see that the market will be strong for export for Brazil. Brazil in the last, I think in the last two years, opened more than 100 new markets. They keep open market for Brazilian export for beef. We see strong demand. I think will be remain next year the demand from the market. They are more than compensate, they increase the cost of livestock, more than compensate. The domestic market is remaining strong as well.
I think is for beef, we see that will be good next year for all of the market, even the Brazilian market, because in Brazilian market, we have developed a special work with our key customers. We manage, we call category management 2.0 that we are manage the category inside of the retails. We manage the portfolio, we manage the presentation, we train the people that they take care of the butcher area. The good news from that, besides to increase the volume of the beef, they increase the volume for all other categories. It means that the retail, they have a partnership with Friboi. They are able to grow not just in beef, but show all of the categories. That we have a strong program here is a mature program, is proved results here in Brazil.
The external market, I think, is the external market demand is huge. We are not seeing restriction on that.
Thanks, Tomazoni.
Speaker 10
Thank you. Our next question comes from Tiago Bortolucci with Goldman Sachs. Go ahead, Mr. Bortolucci.
Speaker 18
Yes. Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks very much for taking the questions. I also have two. The first one, and I think it's for Wesley. I remember, Wesley, early in the year, you mentioned a bunch of investments into your US beef operations, right? We know obviously those are aiming for the medium term, not necessarily the cycle. I'd just like to understand from you, given the run rate profitability that you are delivering there, how much of those investments or any other work you could do in terms of efficiency could help protecting a little bit the sequential evolution into 2026? How comparable you think margins could go on a sequential year versus where we are year to date? This is the first one. The second one, I think it's for Guilherme.
Guilherme, you have this soft guidance, right, of returning $1 billion per year to shareholders, either through dividends and buybacks. I know this year was a very special one because of the listing, but you are delivering so far a run rate closer to $2 billion, maybe $1.5 billion if you exclude the dividends related to the listing. Does it mean maybe there might be space for you guys to be a bit higher on shareholder returns, particularly if, as you mentioned, there is no clear M&A on the table for next year? Thank you very much. Those are the questions. Thank you very much.
Speaker 10
Tiago, so the investments we're doing are not going to impact 2026. They're going to impact 2027 going forward. We shouldn't see anything there. Actually, it's perfect timing if you think about it because 2026 will still be a low supply for cattle and all of those plants are going to be, you know, with their revamp and extra better efficiency, better capacity for yields for value-added items, even for more volume into 2027, which is when things should start to look better, at least better than 2026, and then from then on get better. The timing there couldn't have been better. Just overall, we should probably think of 2026 being a year that from a margin perspective, I think will look similar to what 2025 looked like.
Speaker 8
Hi, Tiago. In our decision to return money to shareholder, the main variable so far is our leverage, given that we want to keep investment ready and we are a triple B minus company. That is the main variable for that. This year, again, we will, besides having all these returns that you mentioned, finish the year below 2.5 times, which is a very comfortable level. We are now in the process of budgeting for next year. We also have to wait for the first quarter. That is always a cash consumption quarter. Generally, those decisions will start being made in the second quarter next year. Probably returns will be more skewed to the second half of 2026.
I think we are confident that we can continue to have the dividends of around $1 billion per year as long as we can keep leverage on our comfort zone. Again, any excess we will be deciding in terms of share buybacks or extra dividends and also depending on M&A opportunities.
Speaker 18
Fair enough. Thank you very much both.
Speaker 10
Our next question is with Mr. Lucas Ferreira with JPMorgan. Go ahead, Mr. Ferreira.
Speaker 8
Hi, guys. I hope you hear me well. Quick follow-up, Guilherme, on that $700 million expected working capital investments for 2026. Just ballpark numbers, how much of that is volume growth and how much is pricing? Just we have a sensitivity here of, you know, how things could go. Thank you.
Hi. I would say it could be half and half. This $700 million, as I mentioned in the beginning, depends on a lot of variables that is out of our control. Basically, I did an average of many years before, but it all depends on three things: on grains prices, in livestock prices, and finished product prices. This can swing a lot. This is, again, the $700 is working capital is something that is really what can swing more in terms of what we forecasting for next year. Maybe again, we can even have a neutral value, right? Not consuming, not releasing, except for the biological assets that you always be consuming. That is why I separate biological assets. Again, this number was just an average of years before because we will have some volumes that will impact that, especially from the expansion that we do.
The main impact will always be on the prices of these three elements that I mentioned.
Guilherme, sorry, quick follow-up on the biological assets that you're guiding pretty much like a flattish number, right, in dollars. Obviously, there's the FX effect, but can we assume, given all the industry inflation and the cost of grandmothers, etc., that this implies also that your, and obviously assume that chicken is most of this biological assets, right? That your placements are sort of a flattish or at least not growing significantly. Is it fair to assume?
Because the main variable that impacts this is the grain prices. Basically, we are considering that grain prices will not be much higher next year, so we can consider it flattish. Okay.
Thank you.
Because the livestock, the chicken and pork, they basically are valued through their cost of feeding. That's the grains.
Perfect. Thank you very much.
Speaker 10
Next question comes from Purham Sharma with Stevens Capital Management. Go ahead, Purham.
Speaker 14
Thanks for the question. Just wanted to follow up on some of the hedges you talked about last quarter. I think you mentioned you put on, you took a $250 million loss due to some of the hedges. I was just, you know, curious if you're able to share how much of that rolled off in 3Q and how much should we expect to see roll off in 4Q.
Speaker 8
Hi, Purham. Yes. Bear in mind that we are talking about the cash impact of the derivatives because they offset on the physical purchase. You're right. On the third quarter, we have this impact, this negative impact that will be, so far it's been, with the decrease in future market, is being offsetting from a cash standpoint in the fourth quarter. Of course, it depends from now to the end of the quarter how the behavior, but so far we are releasing cash on the derivative side. Bear in mind that it is on a margins basis, it's offset by the physical purchases.
Great. Thank you for that, Calder. Just thinking about the pork business here, you know, I was just wondering, you mentioned these supplies, industry supplies still remain constrained. I was just wondering, you know, just given where hog production margins are at, why do you think you have not seen any signs of expansion? The last hogs and pigs report seemed to indicate that we are not going to see any expansion. I think other players within pork processing are also walking away from, you know, raising hogs. At this point, when you look at your integrated operations, do you see the shorter hog supply situation here in the U.S. as a benefit to your business, given, you know, just where hog production margins are at? Or is it more of a negative just given it would be impacting your pork packer side of your business?
We'd just love your thoughts on that.
Yeah. So we see obviously this year, we have a lower volume of kills. Next year, we're probably going to see higher kills if health is better than this year. We believe it will be better than this year. We might see more hogs into next year. Now, this whole strategy of how much hogs we raise and how much, you know, we are basically a quarter, 25% of our, more or less, 25% of the hogs we process, we raise. It's a number that we think we like it. We like it to be around that. Our hog procurement is very well balanced, you know, taking risk on hog prices, corn risk, hog risk, and there is some cut-out businesses as well that's hogs that we buy indexed on cut-out.
It's a very, the way we buy hogs is a way that minimizes volatility on each one of the indicators. Even in years that we don't have great operations and great revenue or great result in hogs, in hog production, it ends up not being a terrible year for us. I think the way that we buy hogs and the way that we structure our hog procurement allows us not to feel huge impacts if one of these three price indexes, you know, cut-out, grain, or hogs, if they have big swings, we're able to kind of hedge that a little bit. We're not, you know, obviously we want our pork processing and our pork hog production to do well at the same time. If one does worse and the other one does better, it's almost a hedge for us.
Great. Thank you very much.
Speaker 10
Next question comes from Leonardo Alencar with XP. Go ahead, Mr. Alencar.
Speaker 13
Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I would like to discuss a little bit further about Brazilian cattle. This year was a positive surprise, a surprise to the upside, but then we do not have much visibility for 2026. First, what is our base case for cattle availability the next year? Second, in a scenario, maybe a potential scenario of a tighter supply of cattle, should we view this project, this Swift retail stores that we have been building up for a long time now, should we view that as a margin hedge? Or maybe this scenario of retailers with lower margins, squeezed margins, would be a good opportunity to increase the pace of growth in that area? Those are my two questions. Thank you.
Speaker 8
The availability of cattle in Brazil, we see that the information we have that will be less 3%-5%. This is the market information about different search, will be 3%-5%. Leonardo, it's important to see this 3%-5% for a high level. There is still a lot of cattle available in the market because we are not, if you back to 2023, we are seeing that we are much, much higher than the time. Even that we have some reduction now, the reduction is never in different level that we are remain much more availability than before. This is one thing that we see that market and Friboi have a special program to purchase cattle in the market. We are long-term strategy with the farms in order to have reliable supply along the years. It's one thing.
The second thing, we see the Brazilian market grow a lot of the feedlot. The rate of growth, the feedlot, it's an incredible rate because with the booming of the ethanol corn industry in Brazil, the availability of DDG helps to enhance the diet of the cattle. The combination of the improvement of genetic and the improvement of diet, we see that the age, the size of the yield of the Brazilian beef increase. This is another point that we need to put in consideration because of that, we improve the quality, we improve, and we improve the, I'd say, we improve the quality of the product that go to be harvested.
This is because of that, we are so excited about the Brazilian market because if you compare Brazil to the U.S. herds, U.S. has less than half of Brazilian herds, and they produce more beef. The opportunity for Brazil to grow beef market is a huge, huge opportunity in terms of genetic, in terms of diet, in terms of management of the herds. It is one thing. The other thing you mentioned about our stock, Swift Store. The Swift Store was developed because we believe that the frozen beef, there is a market. If you sell frozen, we save some waste in the chain, some yields that when you sell fresh, we are losing the yield during the process till to go to the consumers. The consumer attitude, they go to the market, they not go every day to the stores.
They go one day, they buy, they go to home, and then frozen the meat. This was the idea to develop the concept why they frozen it at home. When they froze it at home, they do not have the best condition to frozen. Let's frozen the meat inside of the plant that we save the yields and we get better product. This was the idea to develop this market. This market going well, and we not compete with our customers because we have the solution to put in store in store. Some of the customers, they want to have this frozen beef inside of the store. We go there and we build a Swift Store inside of the store. This is one segment we are growing. The other segment is, I mentioned before, it is the category of management.
We call a Soggy Friboi or Friboi Butcher that we are teach the people that operate the butcher area in order they are preparing to attend better the consumers. In the other way, we help them to define the mix and to define the presentation of each one of the cuts. That is a win-win strategy because they do not just sell more meat, but they sell more the other product inside of the store.
Speaker 13
Okay. That's pretty much the details. Thank you. Thank you very much, Tomazoni.
Speaker 10
Our next question comes from Priya Ory with Barclays. You may go ahead.
Speaker 8
Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking the question. Guilherme, one follow-up. I know you've gotten some questions around the working capital, but it does seem like, you know, relative to what you discussed on the second quarter call, you know, in the break-even calculation, the working capital need has gone up about, you know, $400 million for this year, $450 million for next year. Can you just walk us through sort of what specifically is driving that? My second question is just around any progress you've made with regards to updating your bond ticker. I know that's something that you guys have been discussing for a little bit, so just wanted to see where you were there. Thank you.
Hi, Priya. So basically this year, the increase was mainly because of livestock prices and also finished product prices. Next year, as I mentioned, there's a lot of variables of the uncertainty. I just made an average of last year's because this is, again, depends on the variables that I mentioned before. I can tell you what this year, it was mainly for the reasons of livestock prices and finished product prices and some increase in volumes. The ticker, we are in the process of making the NV, so our Netherlands company now as a co-issuer as well. This will mean restructuring. Maybe with this argument of being restructuring, we will ask Bloomberg if now they can take the BZ from the ticker, but that's our next try will be once we finish making the NV as a co-issuer.
Great. Thank you. Do you have a timeline around that possibly? And then just one final question around whether you've gotten any indications from BNDES around how they're thinking about selling down their existing holding, which is for sale. Thank you.
No, we do not have a timeframe, but I think by next year, we will have the restructuring of the co-issuer in place. BNDES, we have no news on that.
Great. Thank you so much.
Speaker 10
Our next question is with Igor Guedes with Genial. You may go ahead, Mr. Guedes. Mr. Guedes, your microphone might be muted.
Speaker 16
Good morning. Good morning, everyone. Are you listening to me?
Speaker 8
Yes.
Speaker 16
Okay. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for the opportunity. My question is about US pork. We understand that although domestic demand remains resilient and supported by consumers switching to cheaper proteins, margins still seem to reflect the effect of weaker prices for byproducts and offal. The operation has made progress in expanding its high-value-added portfolio, including the strengthening in prepared products line, but this has not yet been enough to offset the contraction factors. We have an agreement that Chinese products will be subject to a 40% tariff in the US. Do you think this agreement will be enabled to return of sales of byproducts and offal to China with the administration of the two countries reaching a better understanding on tariffs? Is it possible to see this margin improving going forward? Thank you very much.
Speaker 3
Igor, good morning. Obviously, if we have more markets for our product, including offals, it is always better and always will be better for margins overall to have more options. Margins are not compressed because of that. I mean, we are just back to a 10% EBITDA here, close to what we had been operating in the previous quarters, except for the second quarter. Margins are not compressed because of that right now. It was compressed in the second quarter because of some backup that we had on the exports, but not anymore. Again, obviously, if we have more market access for meat or for offals or for any one of our byproducts, it is always positive. I would not say the margins are compressed because of that, though.
Speaker 16
Okay. Thank you very much.
Speaker 10
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. With there being no further questions, I would like to pass the floor to Mr. Gilberto Tomazoni.
Speaker 5
Thank you all for joining us today. Your continued interest in JBS this quarter once again highlighted the strength of our global protein platform and the way that we operate it with discipline that guides our work every day. As we close, I want to express my appreciation to our more than 280,000 team members around the world. They are committed to excellence and this is the foundation of our performance and the reason we continue to deliver consistent and long-term value. Thank you.
Speaker 10
This is the end of the conference call held by JBS. Thank you very much for your participation and have a nice day.