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Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered notable operational milestones—routine pilot-on-board transition flights, a 12-point increase on the FAA side of Stage 4 certification, and a UK launch partnership with Virgin Atlantic—while financials reflected higher operating spend to support certification and manufacturing and a larger adjusted EBITDA loss .
  • EPS missed consensus (actual: -$0.200 vs estimate: -$0.184*) and revenue was de minimis versus expectations ($0 vs $0.783M*), while net loss improved substantially sequentially due to a favorable revaluation of warrants and earn-out shares .
  • Liquidity remains strong at $812.5M cash and short-term investments, excluding an additional $250M tranche expected from Toyota in Q2; 2025 cash use guidance maintained at $500–$540M .
  • Near-term stock reaction catalysts: accelerating Stage 4 progress and piloted transition flights (first in sector), closing of Toyota’s first $250M tranche, and Dubai hot-weather flight testing mid-year ahead of first passenger operations targeted for early 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • First company to routinely perform inhabited transition from hover to wingborne flight; “Achieving this milestone is hugely significant…paves the way to starting TIA flight testing with FAA pilots onboard” — Didier Papadopolous, President of Aircraft OEM .
    • Certification momentum: Stage 4 completion advanced to FAA 43%, Joby 62% in Q1 from FAA 31%, Joby 53% in Q4 and FAA 21%, Joby 41% in Q3 .
    • Strategic expansion: partnership with Virgin Atlantic to launch UK service from Heathrow/Manchester; Virgin to support marketing, regulatory engagement, and vertiport development .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Financial underperformance vs consensus: Q1 EPS missed (-$0.200 vs -$0.184*) and revenue missed ($0 vs $0.783M*) amid limited flight services revenue and rising OpEx for certification/manufacturing .
    • Adjusted EBITDA loss widened to -$127.1M (vs -$118.7M in Q4), driven by higher personnel and certification-related costs and lower government contract deliverables q/q .
    • Operating expenses increased to $163.3M (vs $149.9M in Q4; $145.9M prior year), reflecting growth in R&D and prototype parts for testing/certification .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Thousands)$28 $55 $0
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(143.9) $(246.3) $(82.4)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.21) $(0.34) $(0.11)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$156.7 $149.9 $163.3
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(120.4) $(118.7) $(127.1)
Cash & Short-term Investments ($USD Millions)$710.0 $932.9 $812.5

Estimate comparison (S&P Global):

MetricQ3 2024 ConsensusQ3 2024 ActualQ4 2024 ConsensusQ4 2024 ActualQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 Actual
EPS ($USD)-$0.186*-$0.2125 -$0.1939*-$0.1905 -$0.184*-$0.2001
Revenue ($USD)$64,500*$28,000 $44,750*$55,000 $782,670*$0

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Additional details and drivers:

  • Q1 net loss improved q/q by $163.9M due to favorable revaluation of warrants/earn-out shares; OpEx rose $13.4M q/q on higher R&D, personnel (incl. SBC), and lower government deliverables .
  • Cash & investments of $812.5M exclude Toyota’s first $250M tranche expected to reflect in Q2; total commitment $500M in two tranches, subject to closing conditions .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash use (cash, cash equivalents, STIs)FY 2025$500–$540M (Q4 guide) $500–$540M (reiterated Q1) Maintained
TIA flight testing start (U.S.)Next 12 monthsWithin next 12 months (Q4) Within next 12 months (Q1) Maintained
First passenger operations (Dubai)Late 2025 or early 2026Late 2025 or early 2026 (Q4) Early 2026 commentary reinforced (Q1 Q&A) Maintained to early 2026 bias
Toyota investment2025First $250M tranche approvals in place (Q4) Agreements finalized to close first $250M tranche, expected in Q2 Progressing

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Certification progress (Stage 4)Q3: FAA 21%/Joby 41% ; Q4: FAA 31%/Joby 53% FAA 43%/Joby 62% Accelerating
Piloted testing / transition flightsInhabited testing underway; FAA simulator engagement (Q4) Routine pilot-on-board transitions achieved (first in sector) Strong positive inflection
Manufacturing scaleParts ≈1 aircraft/month; 95% conforming composites (Q4) Fifth pilot-line aircraft powered on; expanded Marina facility handover next month Capacity build continues
Dubai commercializationVertiport construction; mid-2025 aircraft delivery; late 2025/early 2026 passengers (Q4) Mid-year hot-weather testing; early 2026 target reiterated On track; clearer timeline
International partnershipsToyota $500M; regulators’ harmonization (Q3/Q4) Virgin Atlantic UK partnership for launch; Delta tie-in Expanding ecosystem
DoD programsSecond aircraft delivered to Edwards; pilot and maintenance training (Q4) Ongoing testing; autonomy/hybrid path highlighted Sustained engagement
Tariffs/supply chainSFAR publication; manufacturing progress (Q3/Q4) Vertical integration mitigates tariff risks; flexibility in supplier base Resilient stance

Management Commentary

  • “This quarter’s move to routine inhabited transition flight was a key moment…a critical unlock toward beginning TIA flights with the FAA” — JoeBen Bevirt, CEO .
  • “Achieving this milestone is hugely significant…paves the way to starting TIA flight testing with FAA pilots onboard” — Didier Papadopolous, President of Aircraft OEM .
  • “We can choose nearer-term cash flow…longer-term margin…or grow market share…and mix these as we see fit” — Paul Sciarra, Executive Chairman (three go-to-market paths: direct sales, partner-operated markets ex-U.S., direct-to-consumer) .
  • “We ended the quarter with $813 million in cash and short-term investments…not including the additional $500 million commitment from Toyota” — Press release .

Q&A Highlights

  • FAA-conforming aircraft timeline: multiple FAA-conforming aircraft moving through production; on track for flight testing later this year .
  • Manufacturing expansion: Marina footprint doubling with facility handover next month; Ohio retrofits ongoing with tooling/equipment installs .
  • Dubai program: mid-year hot-weather flight testing; initial operations to start small with few aircraft and vertiports, scaling thereafter; early 2026 passenger target .
  • Tariffs: vertical integration and component-level sourcing provide flexibility; no near-term impact expected .
  • Vertiport costs: range from hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars depending on scale .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 EPS and revenue missed S&P Global consensus due to limited flight services revenue and higher operating expenses tied to certification and manufacturing ramp, with lower government deliverables q/q .
  • Prior quarters mixed: Q4 2024 revenue beat, EPS modest beat; Q3 2024 EPS and revenue missed (*) .
  • With 2025 cash use reiterated at $500–$540M and adjusted EBITDA loss widening q/q, Street estimates may need to reflect higher near-term OpEx to support certification/manufacturing while operational milestones de-risk the path to TIA and commercialization .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Program Metrics

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Stage 4 Certification Completion (FAA)21% 31% 43%
Stage 4 Certification Completion (Joby)41% 53% 62%
Aircraft in Flight Test Fleet4 → 5 (rolled out fourth) 5 (incl. hydrogen-hybrid) 6 expected (fifth pilot-line aircraft powered on)
Routine Pilot-On-Board Transition FlightsNoFAA simulator engagement; inhabited testing underway Yes (first to routinely perform)
Cash & Short-term Investments ($USD Millions)$710.0 $932.9 $812.5

Guidance Changes (Detailed)

  • 2025 cash use: $500–$540M maintained; aligned with facility expansion in Marina, Ohio component production, Dubai test program, and certification workstreams .
  • TIA flight testing: within 12 months; FAA pilots engaged in simulator and observation of inhabited test points .
  • Dubai: aircraft delivery mid-2025; first passengers late 2025 or early 2026; current tone leans to early 2026 .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution momentum is strong: routine piloted transitions and accelerating Stage 4 completion materially de-risk the certification path toward TIA and eventual type certification .
  • Liquidity plus strategic funding provides runway: $812.5M cash/STIs and expected $250M Toyota tranche in Q2 underpin 2025 spend and manufacturing/certification scaling .
  • Commercialization lining up: Dubai vertiport construction, mid-year hot-weather testing, and UK go-to-market via Virgin Atlantic and Delta position Joby for early 2026 passenger ops and international expansion .
  • Near-term financials remain investment-heavy: adjusted EBITDA losses and OpEx reflect rapid certification/manufacturing advances; Street models should incorporate higher OpEx while recognizing accelerating program milestones .
  • Strategic flexibility: three monetization paths (direct sales, partner-operated markets, direct-to-consumer) enable dynamic allocation for near-term cash vs longer-term margin and market share .
  • Regulatory engagement is robust: FAA simulator/TIA preparation and international regulator harmonization reduce cross-market certification friction .
  • Trading implications: operational catalysts (Toyota tranche close, Dubai testing, further Stage 4 gains, FAA simulator/TIA progress) likely drive sentiment; headline EPS/revenue misses are less material given pre-revenue status versus certification and commercialization milestones .

Notes:

  • Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.