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Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • JOBY reported Q2 2025 GAAP net loss of $324.7M and diluted EPS of $(0.41), driven by a $126.3M non-cash loss from revaluation of warrants/earn-out and a $40.3M loss on common stock issuance; adjusted EBITDA loss was $(131.6)M .
  • Operational progress was strong: first TIA-conforming aircraft moved to final assembly; Stage 4 certification reached 70% on the Joby side and >50% on the FAA side; 21 full-transition flights completed in Dubai; cash and short-term investments ended at $0.991B .
  • Commercialization accelerated via definitive agreement to acquire Blade’s passenger business (up to $125M), expanded ANA partnership to deploy >100 aircraft in Japan, and L3Harris collaboration on a gas-turbine hybrid VTOL for defense .
  • Guidance maintained: 2025 cash use of $500–$540M; FAA pilots expected to begin TIA flights early next year; DXB vertiport targeted for Q1 2026 and first passengers in Dubai in 2026 .
  • Stock-relevant catalysts: tangible certification milestones, Blade asset acquisition/infrastructure access, Toyota’s $250M tranche close, and defense pathway with L3Harris; offset by larger GAAP losses from non-cash derivative revaluations .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Certification momentum: “the first of five aircraft for TIA flight testing is headed to final assembly,” with Stage 4 now 70% complete on Joby’s side and >50% on FAA’s side .
  • Dubai readiness: completed 21 piloted full-transition flights in ~110°F ambient temperatures, validating thermal management, ground operations, and infrastructure for commercial service .
  • Commercial acceleration: definitive agreement to acquire Blade’s passenger business unlocks NYC and Southern Europe infrastructure and a 50,000+ flier base; management: “This gives us a defensible first mover advantage” .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP P&L volatility: Q2 GAAP net loss deepened to $324.7M, largely from a $126.3M non-cash revaluation of warrants/earn-out and a $40.3M private placement loss; adjusted EBITDA also widened YoY and QoQ .
  • Revenue remains de minimis: flight services revenue was $0.015M in Q2 2025 vs. $0.028M in Q2 2024, highlighting limited near-term commercial revenue before certification/service launch .
  • Estimate misses: Q2 “Primary EPS” actual was below consensus and revenue missed; similar misses in Q1 2025, underscoring near-term income statement headwinds before commercialization ramps [GetEstimates]*.

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue – Flight services ($USD Millions)$0.028 $0.000 $0.015
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$144.315 $163.284 $167.879
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)$(144.287) $(163.284) $(167.864)
Total Other Income (Loss), net ($USD Millions)$21.005 $80.918 $(156.704)
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(123.292) $(82.406) $(324.674)
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($USD)$(0.18) $(0.11) $(0.41)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(107.232) $(127.133) $(131.553)
Cash & Short-term Investments ($USD Billions)$0.933 (12/31/24) $0.813 (3/31/25) $0.991 (6/30/25)

KPIs and Operational Metrics:

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Stage 4 Certification – Joby side (%)—62% 70%
Stage 4 Certification – FAA side (%)—43% 53%
Dubai Piloted Full-Transition Flights (#)——21
Marina Production Capacity (Aircraft/yr)——24 (planned)
Dayton Capacity Potential (Aircraft/yr)——up to 500 (over time)
2025 Cash Use Guidance ($USD Millions)—$500–$540 $500–$540

Segment breakdown: Not applicable; revenue is primarily “Flight services” at immaterial levels pending certification and commercialization .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash useFY 2025$500–$540M (Q1 2025) $500–$540M (Q2 2025) Maintained
TIA Flight Testing (FAA pilots)Early next year“Begin TIA within next 12 months” (Q1 2025) FAA pilots early next year; Joby pilots in 2025 Clarified timeline, reaffirmed
Dubai Vertiport (DXB)Q1 2026Construction underway (Q4 2024) On track for Q1 2026 completion Firmed date
First Passengers – Dubai2026Late 2025 or early 2026 (Q4 2024) 2026 Pushed to 2026
Manufacturing – MarinaOngoingExpansion nearing completion (Q1 2025) Doubles capacity to 24 aircraft/yr Raised capacity target
Manufacturing – DaytonMulti-yearRamp components (Q1 2025) Capable of up to 500 aircraft/yr over time Capacity vision reiterated
Blade passenger business2025 close—Up to $125M purchase; closing in weeks New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (Prior)Q1 2025 (Prior)Q2 2025 (Current)Trend
CertificationRecord Stage 4 progress; TIA within 12 months Stage 4: Joby 62%, FAA 43%; routine piloted transitions First TIA aircraft to final assembly; Stage 4 Joby 70%, FAA >50% Accelerating
CommercializationDubai aircraft delivery mid-2025; passengers late 2025/early 2026 Virgin Atlantic partnership (UK); DXB vertiport build; simulator Blade acquisition; Dubai campaign completed; ANA JV expansion Broadening
DefenseDelivered second aircraft to USAF; hybrid hydrogen 561-mile flight DoD engagement; autonomy via Xwing; hybrid path L3Harris hybrid VTOL collaboration; demos in 2026; DoD $9.4B FY26 request Scaling
Manufacturing5-aircraft fleet, 1 aircraft-equivalent parts/month Expanded Marina; fifth aircraft powered on Marina doubled to 435k sq ft; capacity 24/yr; Dayton coming online Capacity up
Regulatory/GlobalFAA pilots in simulator; international validation path FAA Mosaic; global bilaterals; UK/Japan/Korea NAA Network five-nation roadmap; Dubai regulatory engagement Favorable
Supply chain/tariffs—Vertical integration mitigates tariff risk No new issues discussedStable
R&D/TechHybrid hydrogen flight; simulator plans Failure injection testing, redundancy; piloted transitions Turbine-electric hybrid plan; autonomy benefits from defense work Advancing

Management Commentary

  • “We’re gearing up for stage five... the first of five aircraft for TIA flight testing is headed to final assembly... remain on track to start flying our TIA aircraft with Joby pilots this year and to begin TIA certification flights with FAA pilots early next year.”
  • “This gives us a defensible first mover advantage... infrastructure, team and routes to start electrified service in key U.S. and international markets.” (on Blade)
  • CFO: “Q2 use of cash totaled $112M... remain on track with full-year 2025 guidance of $500–$540M... Adjusted EBITDA loss was $132M.”
  • “We completed 21 piloted flights in Dubai... validated maintenance, logistics, aircraft capabilities and infrastructure... DXB vertiport is on track for completion in Q1 2026.”
  • “Expanded agreement with ANA... plan to deploy more than 100 Joby aircraft... hold public demonstration flights at EXPO 2025 Osaka.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Commercial model flexibility: U.S. preference for owned-and-operated passenger service, but Blade’s asset-light model and ANA JV enable revenue pull-forward; potential Saudi aircraft sales via Abdul Latif Jameel .
  • Certification specifics: Not required to be 100% Stage 4 to begin TIA; FAA lean-in and test-plan approvals support timeline; first aircraft nearly identical to prior test fleet but built under FAA-inspected quality systems .
  • Defense pipeline: Partnering with L3Harris to missionize hybrid VTOL for contested logistics, counter-UAS, EW; rapid demo-to-deployment leveraging dual-use manufacturing .
  • New York operations: Blade provides vertiport lounges and constrained real estate access; expected to ramp NYC operations faster post-certification .
  • Dubai network: Strong developer interest; Skyports + RTA building nodes; high-value routes (e.g., DXB to Palm ~12 minutes) .

Estimates Context

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)-0.1873*-0.1840*-0.1867*
Primary EPS Actual ($)-0.1800*-0.2001*-0.1984*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)500,000*782,670*59,600*
Revenue Actual ($USD)28,000*0*15,000*
  • Q2 2025: Primary EPS missed consensus (−0.1984 vs −0.1867); revenue missed ($15k vs $59.6k). Q1 2025 also missed both EPS and revenue; Q2 2024 slightly beat EPS but missed revenue [GetEstimates]*.
  • Note: JOBY’s GAAP diluted EPS in Q2 2025 was $(0.41), impacted by non-cash derivative revaluations and private placement loss; “Primary EPS” reflects a normalized basis used by consensus .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Certification inflection: First TIA aircraft to final assembly and rising Stage 4 completion materially de-risk the path to FAA TIA flights in early 2026; watch for FAA test flight commencement as a near-term catalyst .
  • Commercial beachheads: Blade acquisition accelerates NYC/Southern Europe go-to-market with infrastructure and demand; ANA JV (>100 aircraft) and Dubai (DXB vertiport Q1 2026) provide international scale options .
  • Balance sheet runway: $0.991B cash/short-term investments and Toyota’s first $250M tranche closed underpin 2025 execution; cash use guidance maintained at $500–$540M .
  • Defense optionality: L3Harris hybrid VTOL opens near-term funded demos and potential program entries; dual-use autonomy and turbine-electric work can feed back into commercial products .
  • P&L optics: Expect continued GAAP volatility from derivative revaluations until commercialization and revenue scale; adjusted EBITDA and cash guidance are better indicators of operational spend trajectory .
  • Timeline recalibration: Dubai first passengers now targeted in 2026; investors should anchor on operational readiness milestones (DXB vertiport completion, FAA TIA flight start) rather than revenue in 2025 .
  • Tradeable catalysts: Deal close and integration updates on Blade, additional TIA aircraft build status, FAA pilots entering TIA campaigns, Dubai network progress, and defense demo news flow .