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Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 revenue was $22.6M, driven by Blade passenger service and defense/engineering work; GAAP net loss widened to $401.2M largely on a $229.1M non-cash warrants/earnout revaluation; cash and short-term investments were $978.1M, with another ~$576M raised in October .
- Entered the final stage of FAA Type Certification: first TIA-ready, FAA-conforming aircraft began power-on testing; over 600 flights conducted YTD; five TIA aircraft are in production, preparing for Joby- then FAA-piloted “for-credit” testing in 2026 .
- Commercialization path advanced: Blade transported ~40,000 customers in the quarter; Dubai operations expected to ramp through 2026 prior to FAA certification; expanded Uber partnership integrates Blade services in-app .
- Technology stack accelerated: Superpilot autonomy logged 7,000+ miles in military exercise; named NVIDIA IGX Thor launch partner; hybrid turbine-electric demonstrator achieved first flight three months after concept announcement (L3Harris partnership) .
- Near-term stock catalysts: clear certification milestones (FAA pilots for-credit testing), Dubai flight ops build-out, autonomy/hybrid demonstrations, and incremental aircraft sales/MOUs (e.g., up to $250M LOI in Kazakhstan) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Final-stage certification progression: “power-on” of first FAA-conforming TIA aircraft; five TIA aircraft in production; 600+ flights YTD demonstrating maturity and readiness for Stage 5 show-and-verify .
- Commercial readiness momentum: Blade carried ~40,000 passengers; Uber partnership expanded; first simulator accepted with CAE to enable pilot training at scale .
- Autonomy and hybrid platform execution: Superpilot exercised 7,000+ autonomous miles; selected by NVIDIA as aviation launch partner; hybrid turbine-electric demonstrator flew within three months, positioning Joby for defense opportunities .
- Quote: “I’ve never been more excited about the company and technologies we are building.” — JoeBen Bevirt, CEO .
What Went Wrong
- EPS and EBITDA missed consensus: primary EPS was slightly below Street; Adjusted EBITDA loss deepened on higher OpEx and acquisition-related costs; EBITDA vs consensus notably weaker .
- Non-cash volatility drove GAAP loss: $229.1M unfavorable warrants/earnout revaluation tied to share price increase; other non-cash charges also elevated .
- OpEx stepped up: total operating expenses rose to $204.2M, up ~$36M Q/Q with Blade inclusion and program spend; cash use trending to upper end of 2025 guidance .
- Analyst concern: blade seasonality into Q4 and lack of near-term revenue guidance; management reiterated low-season dynamic and deferred specific Blade guidance .
Financial Results
Notes: N/A indicates data not disclosed in documents. Adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP reconciled in the shareholder letters/calls .
Segment/Revenue Composition (Q3 2025)
KPIs and Balance Sheet
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “This is the moment when our certification strategy, our intended type design, and our manufacturing processes all converge into one physical asset.” — Joby Bevirt (prepared remarks) .
- “Adjusted EBITDA… was a loss of $133 million… reflecting the revenue booked in Q3, offset by the increase in spending… inclusion of Blade operating expenses and acquisition-related costs.” — Rodrigo Brumana (CFO) .
- “We continue to expect to be operational in Dubai prior to FAA-type certification.” — Joby Bevirt (Q&A) .
- “We do think there are going to be interesting revenue-generating opportunities that come out of the IPP program.” — Paul Sciarra (Exec Chair) .
- “Joby will be the aviation launch partner for NVIDIA's IGX Thor platform… enabling real-time, on-board capabilities.” — Prepared remarks ; NVIDIA release .
Q&A Highlights
- Timeline and commercialization ahead of FAA TC: Management reaffirmed Dubai operations will ramp through 2026; expects early US pre-TC operations under eIPP mid-2026 pending downselect .
- Revenue mix and seasonality: Q3 revenue ~$23M included ~$14M Blade and ~$9M other; caution that Q4 is a low season; no specific Blade guidance offered .
- Certification cadence: Five TIA aircraft in parallel to speed Stage 5; synchronization with FAA test pilot availability emphasized; FAA engagement continued despite shutdown risks .
- Defense hybrid aircraft: Variant leverages existing airframe and manufacturing lines, enabling faster demo-to-deployment; targets contested logistics, loyal wingman, EW missions with L3Harris .
- IPP/eIPP revenue potential: Management expects “commercial bent” for some IPP projects; exploring JV pre-orders/prepayments internationally (e.g., ANA) .
Estimates Context
Q3 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus
Interpretation:
- Revenue beat driven by Blade consolidation and completion of defense/engineering deliverables; EBITDA and EPS missed as OpEx rose with Blade inclusion, program spend, and non-cash charges impacting GAAP results .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Certification is in the final stage with TIA aircraft now powered-on; five aircraft in production set up Joby/FAA “for-credit” flights through 2026 — a clear milestone timeline for de-risking .
- Commercial ramp is multi-pronged: Blade operational base (~40k quarterly passengers), Uber integration, Dubai ramp ahead of FAA TC — expect awareness, route testing, and infrastructure build-out to support initial demand .
- Autonomy and hybrid platform create optionality: NVIDIA partnership and L3Harris collaboration open defense and longer-range missions while back-feeding commercial autonomy readiness — incremental contract opportunities likely .
- Financial profile: Revenue inflects with Blade; GAAP losses will remain volatile given derivative revaluation; Adjusted EBITDA loss modestly larger Q/Q; cash runway extended by $576M equity raise post-quarter .
- Watch estimate revisions: Street likely raises near-term revenue on Blade consolidation, but may trim EBITDA/EPS on higher OpEx until certification/operations scale; seasonal Q4 dynamics could temper near-term Blade run-rate .
- Trading implications: Near-term catalysts include FAA flight-test commencement, Dubai Airshow flight demonstrations, additional aircraft sales/MOUs (e.g., Kazakhstan LOI up to $250M), and autonomy/hybrid demonstrations; progress against these likely drives narrative and multiple .
- Medium-term thesis: Vertically integrated manufacturing with Toyota, regulatory tailwinds (eIPP, bilateral validation), and an ecosystem approach (Blade/Uber/ANA) position Joby to lead initial urban air mobility deployment at scale .
Cross-References and Reconciliation Notes
- Q3 GAAP revenue in the shareholder letter is $22.57M; management rounded to
$23M on the call when discussing composition ($14M Blade, ~$9M other) . - GAAP net loss widened primarily due to non-cash warrants/earnout revaluation ($229.1M), not underlying ops; Adjusted EBITDA loss (-$132.8M) reflects core development/commercialization spend .
- Stage 5 progress reporting depends on test report submissions; much of the “points on the board” may occur near completion; five aircraft parallelization aims to compress timeline .