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Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 net loss was $246.3M, driven by a $106.7M non-cash loss from warrant/earnout revaluation; Adjusted EBITDA loss was $118.7M, slightly better than Q3, while operating expenses fell sequentially to $149.9M .
  • Record Stage 4 FAA certification progress, including first “for-credit” aerostructure test (tail) and first TIA human factors testing; Joby-side Stage 4 now >50%, with TIA flight testing planned within 12 months .
  • Defense momentum: delivery of second aircraft to Edwards AFB; test fleet now five aircraft, including hydrogen-hybrid demonstrator .
  • Strong liquidity: $933M cash and short-term investments at year-end; all regulatory approvals in place for the first $250M Toyota tranche toward a total $500M commitment .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Most significant progress” on Stage 4 certification to date; Joby-side Stage 4 >50%, with first FAA “for-credit” tail test and TIA human factors testing accomplished. “We expect Type Inspection Authorization (‘TIA’) flight testing to begin in the next 12 months.”
  • Manufacturing scaled to parts equivalent to one aircraft per month; >95% of composite components now fully conforming; Marina facility expansion on track. “On the composite side, we're already doing more than 95% of the composites on a conforming basis.”
  • Defense partnerships deepened: delivery of a second aircraft to Edwards AFB; completion of USAF maintenance training program; confirmation of long-range hybrid capability (561-mile hydrogen-electric flights). “We’re the only electric air taxi company to have delivered an aircraft to a government customer on base, which we've now done twice.”

What Went Wrong

  • Net loss increased YoY and QoQ primarily due to derivative revaluation (non-cash), partially offset by interest income; minimal revenue remains a structural feature pre-commercialization ($55K in Q4). “Net loss… increased by $131.2 million… primarily due to increases in the non-cash loss on revaluation of warrants and earnout shares.”
  • Continued heavy investment in R&D and SG&A to support certification/commercialization raised operating expenses YoY ($149.9M vs $129.3M), though OpEx declined sequentially vs Q3.
  • Estimate comparison unavailable this quarter; S&P Global consensus data could not be retrieved, limiting beat/miss analysis (see Estimates Context). [GetEstimates error]

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue (Flight services, $USD Thousands)$1,032 $28 $55
Net Income (Loss, $USD Millions)$(115.1) $(143.9) $(246.3)
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $USD)$(0.17) $(0.21) $(0.34)
Loss from Operations (EBIT, $USD Millions)$(128.2) $(156.7) $(149.9)
Adjusted EBITDA (Loss, $USD Millions, Non-GAAP)$(96.2) $(120.4) $(118.7)
Operating DetailQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$129.3 $156.7 $149.9
Stock-based Compensation ($USD Millions)$23.9 $27.4 $21.7
Depreciation & Amortization ($USD Millions)$8.1 $8.9 $9.5
Change in FV of Warrants/Earnouts ($USD Millions)$0.3 gain $3.8 gain $(106.7) loss
Balance Sheet / SharesQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Cash & Short-term Investments ($USD Millions)$1,032.3 $710.0 $932.9
Weighted Avg Shares (Basic & Diluted)676.2M 695.0M 732.8M

KPIs

KPIQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
FAA Certification Stage 4 Completion (Joby side, %)n/a41% (Joby) >50% (Joby; table shows ~53%)
FAA Certification Stage 4 Completion (FAA side, %)n/a21% (FAA) ~31% (FAA)
TIA Human Factors Testing (Status)n/aPlanning Completed simulator-based TIA human factors test
For-credit Aerostructure Testing (Tail)n/aFirst conforming tail built Static load test completed for FAA credit
Flight Test Fleet Size (# aircraft)n/a4 (4th near completion) 5 aircraft; second delivered to Edwards AFB
Hydrogen-hybrid Flight Milestonen/a561 miles (July 2024) Program reiterated

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Use of Cash, Cash Equivalents & Short-term Investments ($USD Millions)FY 2025n/a$500–$540 New
Use of Cash, Cash Equivalents & Short-term Investments ($USD Millions)FY 2024$440–$470 $450 actual use (excl. offerings), at lower end Achieved (lower end)
TIA Flight Testing Start (U.S.)Next 12 monthsProgressing; human factors plan set Begin TIA flight testing within 12 months Clarified timing
Dubai Operations – First PassengersLate 2025 (as early as) “As early as end of 2025” “Late 2025 or early 2026” Window widened

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
FAA Certification (Stage 4)Joby-side Stage 4 reached 37%; FAA engagement increased Joby 41% / FAA 21%; first conforming tail; more test plans accepted Joby >50% / FAA ~31%; first for-credit tail test; first TIA human factors test Accelerating
Manufacturing & ConformityBuilding 4 aircraft; target 1 aircraft/month capacity Efficiency +30% in integration; scaling conforming parts (35% composites for conforming builds) Capacity at 1 aircraft/month parts; >95% composite components conforming Maturing
Defense/DoDHydrogen demo supported; expanding government programs Continued Agility Prime; expanded branches engagement Delivered second Edwards aircraft; trained USAF maintenance; highlighting hybrid/long range Broadening
Dubai CommercializationGroundbreaking expected; in-region 2025 testing GCAA accepted qualification plans; vertiport groundbreaking ahead; aircraft delivery in 2025 Deliver aircraft mid-2025; first passengers late 2025/early 2026; Jetex partnership; vertiport under construction Operational ramp
Funding/Liquidity$825M Q2 cash; DOE loan application ~$1.4B potential including October offering and Toyota commitment $933M cash; regulatory approvals secured for first Toyota tranche Strengthened
Hydrogen & Technology561-mile hydrogen-electric flight milestone Hydrogen roadmap reiterated; autonomy (Xwing) Program positioning for wider missions; hybrid VTOL emphasized for DoD Strategic optionality

Management Commentary

  • “The next 12 months mark a critical inflection point… as we look ahead to carrying our first passengers.” — JoeBen Bevirt, CEO
  • “We expect to begin TIA flight testing in the U.S… within the next 12 months.” — JoeBen Bevirt
  • “At least on the composite side, we're already doing more than 95% of the composites on a conforming basis.” — Paul Sciarra, Executive Chairman
  • “All regulatory approvals are now in place for [Toyota’s] first tranche.” — Paul Sciarra
  • “These are Joby-owned and operated aircraft [in Dubai] and will be operated by the Joby team.” — JoeBen Bevirt

Q&A Highlights

  • Defense opportunities: broader modernization across branches; Joby uniquely delivered aircraft on-base; hybrid longer-range missions viewed as priority .
  • Certification/TIA: FAA engagement robust; simulator-based human factors TIA testing completed; flight TIA expected within 12 months .
  • Production cadence & conformity: focus on increasing proportion of conforming parts/assets over volume; >95% conforming composites; clarity on “conformity” definition relative to FAA approvals .
  • Dubai commercialization: aircraft to be delivered mid-2025; passengers late 2025 or early 2026; Joby-operated fleet; Jetex partnership to integrate charging/terminals .
  • Toyota investment: both $250M tranches expected in 2025; straight equity, no warrants/kickers .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus estimates (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 revenue/EPS/EBITDA were unavailable due to data access limits, so beat/miss analysis cannot be provided this quarter. Values normally sourced from S&P Global; unavailable at time of analysis.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Certification momentum is the primary stock driver: first for-credit tail test and TIA human factors testing de-risk the path to flight TIA within 12 months; watch for continued Stage 4 test-plan acceptances and initial flight TIA milestones .
  • Liquidity runway improved with $933M cash + expected Toyota tranches; capital plan supports 2025 use of cash guidance ($500–$540M) through certification/manufacturing ramp .
  • Operating losses remain elevated pre-revenue; derivative revaluation volatility can materially swing GAAP net results; Adjusted EBITDA offers clearer view of operating burn trajectory .
  • Dubai is the first commercialization vector: mid-2025 aircraft delivery, late 2025/early 2026 first passengers, vertiport construction underway, Jetex tie-in; Joby-operated model implies service economics upside but execution/infrastructure risk remains .
  • Defense (DoD) is an underappreciated optionality: second Edwards aircraft, USAF training program, hybrid capability; could provide revenue and program validation ahead of civil commercialization .
  • Manufacturing quality/conformity trending positively (>95% composite conformity); this supports faster certification testing and eventual production certification post-TC .
  • Near-term trading: catalysts include Toyota tranche closings, additional FAA “for-credit” acceptances, TIA flight test start, and Dubai infrastructure progress; risk includes certification timing and derivative revaluation impacts on reported EPS .