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ST JOE Co (JOE)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered double-digit growth: revenue rose 16% to $129.1M and net income increased 20% to $29.5M ($0.51 EPS), driven by Real Estate (+27%), Hospitality (+10% record), and Leasing (+11% record) .
- Recurring revenue strength continued: Hospitality set a single-quarter record at $68.8M and Leasing at $16.5M; corporate OpEx held ~5% of revenue, maintaining cost discipline .
- Capital allocation remained active: $36.5M capex, $8.1M dividends, $10.5M buybacks, and $7.7M gross debt repayment in Q2; dividend of $0.14 per share declared for September 19, 2025 .
- Strategic catalysts: Bay County approval of the Pigeon Creek DSAP (3,330 residential units; 450k sq ft commercial), Topgolf opening at Pier Park City Center, and FSU’s $414M bonds for a new teaching/research hospital on JOE’s campus—supporting demand and long-term development runway .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Hospitality and Leasing reached single-quarter records, evidencing recurring revenue momentum: “We continue to implement our strategic plan of growing recurring revenue... hospitality revenue to a single quarterly record of $68.8 million... leasing revenue to a single quarterly record of $16.5 million.” — CEO Jorge Gonzalez .
- Real Estate execution strong: homesite closings increased 21% YoY (225 vs. 186), with 482 homesites placed under contract in Q2; JV equity income rose (Q2: $7.5M vs. $5.4M) .
- Capital discipline: Active shareholder returns and reinvestment (capex $36.5M; dividends $8.1M; buybacks $10.5M; debt repayment $7.7M), with 10-year cumulative repurchases of 34.5M shares ($629.8M) .
What Went Wrong
- Real Estate pricing/margins mixed: average homesite base price decreased YoY ($122k vs. $140k) and gross margin compressed (45.9% vs. 52.3%) due to community mix—watch price/mix sensitivity .
- Club membership modestly down YoY (3,551 vs. 3,571) as management increased entry fees and dues; revenue offset by higher dues and expanded golf capacity (third course) .
- Consolidated EBITDA (non-GAAP) growth lagged YoY margin expansion; depreciation and cost growth in hospitality/leasing weigh on margins despite revenue records .
Financial Results
Consolidated Performance vs. Prior Periods
Notes: EBITDA margins calculated from reported EBITDA and revenue; EBITDA is non-GAAP with reconciliations provided in filings .
Segment Revenue Breakdown
Key KPIs and Operating Metrics
Guidance Changes
Note: No quantitative revenue/EBITDA/EPS guidance was provided; management emphasized recurring revenue growth, development approvals, and capital allocation priorities .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We continue to show solid organic growth with 16% growth in revenue and 20% growth in net income, led by 27% growth in real estate revenue.” — Jorge Gonzalez, CEO .
- “Our capital allocation strategy is measured and multi-faceted… $36.5M capex, $8.1M dividends, $10.5M repurchases, $7.7M debt repaid.” .
- “We obtained approval from Bay County for the Pigeon Creek DSAP… the tenth DSAP… we have commenced development in only three of the ten.” .
- “Through the first six months of 2025, recurring revenue is now 63% of our total revenue… accelerated share repurchase… outstanding share balance below 58 million.” .
Q&A Highlights
- Membership policy and pricing: Access policies for three 30A hotels unchanged; higher entry fees/dues in January drove a temporary membership slowdown but higher revenue per member; new golf course expanded capacity .
- Lot pipeline and interest rates: Demand remains healthy across communities; mortgage rate relief would help accelerate lot sales above ~1,000/year run-rate .
- JV distributions: No fixed formula; distributions depend on operational performance and infrastructure needs; startup JV assets (Residence Inn; Watersound Fountains IL) expected to mature similar to Watercrest senior living trajectory .
- Pigeon Creek monetization: Discussions with a large-scale builder for the entire DSAP to potentially accelerate residential segment pace .
- Infrastructure: West Bay Parkway bridge alignment selected; engineering/permitting planning underway; timing tied to growing consumer base (Latitude) .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus for Q2 2025 EPS, revenue, and EBITDA was not available in the dataset; only actuals were observed. As a result, beat/miss vs. consensus cannot be determined for this quarter (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
- Given recurring revenue momentum and segment records, Street models may need to reflect stronger Hospitality/Leasing mix, lower homesite ASPs/gross margins from mix, and higher JV equity contributions .
Consensus Snapshot (S&P Global)
Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Recurring revenue flywheel is working: Hospitality and Leasing delivered record quarters, underpinning more stable earnings and reducing reliance on transactional land sales .
- Real Estate remains a growth driver, but mix matters: lower ASPs and margin compression reflect community mix; focus on builder partnerships (Pigeon Creek) should support volume acceleration .
- Capital returns sustained alongside reinvestment: continued dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction signal balance sheet strength and disciplined allocation .
- Regional catalysts enhancing demand: Topgolf opening, expanded air access (NYC–PCB), and FSU teaching hospital bonds create multi-year tailwinds for hospitality, leasing, and residential segments .
- JV contributions increasingly material: equity income up YoY; near-term JV assets in lease-up/stabilization should improve earnings as occupancy ramps .
- Watch interest rates and insurance: rate declines would boost homesite demand; insurance costs and macro headwinds remain key variables for margins and consumer behavior .
- Near-term trading: Narrative supports multiple expansion on recurring revenue records and visible development runway; any macro rate relief or incremental builder deal at Pigeon Creek could be meaningful catalysts .