ST JOE Co (JOE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 delivered material acceleration: revenue rose 63% year over year to $161.1M, operating income more than doubled to $52.9M, and net income attributable increased 130% to $38.7M ($0.67 basic EPS), driven largely by a $41.0M Watercrest senior living asset sale in real estate and healthy recurring revenue growth in hospitality and leasing .
• Segment highlights: real estate revenue surged 199% to $83.8M (homesite ASP $150k, gross margin 53%), hospitality set a Q3 record at $60.6M (+9% YoY), and leasing set a single-quarter record at $16.7M (+7% YoY) .
• Capital returns and balance sheet: dividend raised 14% to $0.16, $8.7M of buybacks, $28.4M net debt repaid in Q3; cash and equivalents rose to $126.0M and debt fell to ~26% of total assets, with 80% fixed/swapped and 4.9% effective rate .
• Strategic catalysts: monetization of “piggy bank” operating assets (Watercrest), growing residential/leasing pipelines (1,992 homesites under contract; Watersound Town Center 98% leased with national brands), and new daily non-stop ECP–LGA flight expanding the marketing funnel .
• Estimates: S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue data were unavailable; actuals imply estimates will need to move higher given upside across revenue, EPS, and EBITDA. Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus were not available; only actuals were returned.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Real estate monetization and margins: $83.8M real estate revenue (+199% YoY), homesite ASP up to $150k with 53% gross margin; Watercrest sold for $41.0M generating $19.4M gross profit. “Operating properties…are also ‘piggy banks’ that we can monetize…” — Jorge Gonzalez .
• Recurring revenue strength: hospitality revenue reached a third-quarter record $60.6M (+9% YoY), and leasing set a record $16.7M (+7% YoY), with leased occupancy at 97% and club members up year over year .
• Capital allocation execution: dividend increased to $0.16 (+14%), $8.7M buybacks, $28.4M net debt repayment, capex of $20.4M; CFO emphasized measured, multifaceted capital allocation balancing liquidity, buybacks, dividends, and project debt reduction .

What Went Wrong

• JV activity decelerated: unconsolidated joint venture revenue fell to $57.0M from $109.2M YoY on fewer Latitude Margaritaville home completions (82 vs. 189), reducing equity income to $3.5M from $6.8M .
• Corporate and other operating expenses rose: Q3 corporate expenses increased to $6.9M (+$0.9M YoY), and the company cited higher property taxes/insurance as ongoing cost pressures .
• Mix-driven volatility and limited formal guidance: management reiterated residential margins and pricing vary quarter-to-quarter with community mix; no quantitative revenue/EPS guidance provided, potentially limiting near-term estimate precision .

Financial Results

Quarterly P&L Summary

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Year-over-Year (Q3)

Segment Revenue Breakdown

KPIs

Guidance Changes

No formal quantitative guidance was provided for revenue, margins, OpEx, OI&E, or tax rate .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “All segments continue to reflect organic growth in revenue… Leasing revenue increased to a single quarterly record of $16.7 million and hospitality revenue increased to a third quarter record of $60.6 million.” — Jorge Gonzalez .
• “Our operating properties generate recurring revenue, but they are also ‘piggy banks’ that we can monetize with the right set of conditions… Watercrest… sold for $41.0 million, resulting in gross profit of $19.4 million.” — Jorge Gonzalez .
• “Our capital allocation strategy is measured and multi-faceted… funded $20.4 million in capex, paid $8.1 million in cash dividends, repurchased $8.7 million of our common stock, and repaid a net amount of $28.4 million of debt.” — Jorge Gonzalez .
• “We are excited about the new daily non-stop flights between ECP and LGA… [We’re] poised to leverage this new opportunity by promoting the quality of the Watersound lifestyle.” — Jorge Gonzalez .

Q&A Highlights

• Share repurchases and cash levels: Management reiterated buybacks as a priority, balancing liquidity, open/closed-period restrictions, and broader capital allocation levers; buybacks accelerated to $24.9M through nine months vs. $0 in 2024 .
• Monetization pipeline: Active evaluation of operating properties and timberlands for strategic monetization, but management will not sell assets at a discount .
• Residential pricing/mix and margins: Large ASP jump ($150k vs. $86k) attributed to mix; margins around ~50% historically, with sustainability dependent on community mix and market phase .
• Windmark strategy: Shift from retail lot sales to builder/spec model improved absorption, with ~800 developed lots and ~1,000 units in sight .
• Hospitality/leasing cadence: Hyper-growth phase moderated; ongoing expansion focused on town centers to command higher rates; West Bay just beginning .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q3 2025 (and prior two quarters) were unavailable; our retrieval returned only actuals, limiting direct beat/miss quantification against Street consensus. Given the magnitude of YoY upside in revenue and EPS, we expect upward revisions where coverage resumes or expands. Values retrieved from S&P Global; consensus was not available.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Upside quarter anchored by strategic monetization: the Watercrest sale plus robust homesite margins lifted earnings power and free cash flow potential .
• Recurring revenue base strengthening: hospitality and leasing records support a more predictable run-rate, de-risking the model and supporting capital returns .
• Capital allocation is increasingly shareholder-friendly: dividend raised 14%, buybacks accelerated, leverage reduced; cash balance improved to $126.0M .
• Residential pipeline visibility: 1,992 homesites under contract (~$146.2M value) and >24,000 homesites in the broader pipeline suggest multi-year growth capacity .
• Near-term narrative catalysts: ECP–LGA flight and Watersound Town Center leasing to national brands elevate visibility and demand for NW Florida assets .
• Watch JV cadence: JV completions dropped in Q3 (82 vs. 189); expect quarterly variability with phasing, but ASPs and margins trend higher, supporting long-term value .
• Risk monitor: property tax/insurance inflation, macro sensitivity, and project timing can affect quarterly mix; management’s emphasis on liquidity and town-center strategy mitigates .

Notes:

• All quantitative figures above sourced from JOE’s Q3 2025 8-K, press release, and Q&A transcript, with citations provided.
• Starred values are from S&P Global; consensus estimates were not available at the time of this analysis.*