Korea Electric Power - H1 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, and good evening. First of all, thank you all for joining this conference call. Now we'll begin the conference of the fiscal year 2024 second quarter earnings results by KEPCO. This conference will start with a presentation, followed by a divisional Q&A session. If you have a question, please press asterisk one on your phone during the Q&A. Now, we shall commence the presentation on the fiscal year 2024 second quarter earnings results by KEPCO.

Nam-Yeon Jang (Head of Investor Relations)

[Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon! This is Nam-Yeon Jang, Head of IR team at KEPCO. I would like to thank you for participating in today's conference call to announce the earnings results for Q2 of 2024. Today's call will be proceeded in both Korean and English. We will begin with a brief presentation on the earnings results of this quarter, and then we will follow the session by a Q&A time. I would like to remind you to please note that the financial information disclosed today is on a preliminary, unaudited, and consolidated basis, IFRS-based. And any comparison will be on a year-on-year basis between last year and this year. Business strategies, plans, financial estimates, and other forward-looking statements included in today's call are based on our current expectations and plans. Please be noted that such statements may involve certain risks and uncertainties.

So from now on, we will go on with introducing the information related to the Q2 earnings results for this year. We will start ahead with the presentation, first of all, in Korean, which will then be interpreted into English.

Si-Young Yang (General Manager of Investor Relations)

[Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon! My name is Si Young Yang, General Manager of the IR team at KEPCO. First of all, let me give you the information on the operating income results. For Q2 of 2024, KEPCO recorded operating income of KRW 2.5496 trillion. In going into the specifics to take a closer look, operating revenues increased by 6.2% to KRW 43.7664 trillion year-on-year. Power sales revenue rose by 8% to KRW 41.7056 trillion, while revenues from overseas and other businesses decreased by 20.6% to KRW 2.608 trillion. Cost of goods sold and to reach KRW 10.9164 trillion and KRW 17.1726 trillion respectively.

Depreciation costs rose by 0.1% to reach KRW 5.6513 trillion. Next, let me explain KEPCO's non-operating segment. Borrowings fell compared to the end of 2023 due to temporary reduction of operating funds and repayment of debt with midterm dividend inflow capital. These efforts resulted in borrowings reduction by KRW 1.9352 trillion, versus end of last year, 2023, to reach the sum of KRW 131.6966 trillion. Interest costs recorded KRW 2.2841 trillion. As a result of the foregoing, we recorded in the second quarter of 2024, operating income of KRW 2.5496 trillion on a consolidated basis, and this quarter's net profit recorded KRW 710.3 billion.

We will repeat the portion of the operating income and other information, especially related to the cost of goods sold and SG&A expenses. Cost of goods sold and SG&A expenses decreased by 17% to KRW 41.2168 trillion. Among those, fuel costs and purchase power costs decreased by 27.9% and 18.6% respectively, to reach 10.9164 trillion KRW and 17.1726 trillion KRW respectively. Depreciation costs rose by 0.1% to KRW 5.6513 trillion. Good afternoon, everyone. I am Tae-sub Uhm, Senior Manager of the IR team. I would like to delve a little closer into the major interest areas for this conference call. First of all, I would like to explain about power sales results and forecasts.

The second quarter power sales decreased by 0.5% compared to same quarter of last year, with 268 kWh. This was impacted by factors such as reduction in industrial segment power sales, following economic downturn in sectors like manufacturing. Similarly, on an annual basis, we expect to record a small drop in sales for this segment with the prolonged downturn in manufacturing industry. Next, moving on to fuel price unit cost by fuel type. For 2024 second quarter, fuel unit cost recorded the following level: First of all, for coal, the unit cost was 193,000 KRW per ton. For LNG, 1.09 million KRW per ton, and for oil, 1,002 KRW per liter.

For the year end of 2024, we expect the unit cost to record for coal, KRW 180,000 per ton, LNG, KRW 1.10 million per ton, for oil, 992 KRW per liter. These expected costs are excluding costs related to undocking. Please note that these cost forecasts are subject to change depending on international fuel price trends. Moving on to generation mix. In the second quarter, we saw the nuclear power plant utilization rate increase somewhat. So the NPP generation contribution rate increased, while for coal, maintenance days numbers actually increased, leading to a drop in utilization rate, which then led to a drop in coal contribution in the overall generation mix. For LNG, the capacity increased somewhat.

However, the reduction in power demand, as well as an increase in base load generation, was also recorded. So the overall contribution for LNG was decreased within the generation mix as a total. As of the end of the year 2024, we forecast an increased utilization rate of nuclear to take place, leading to higher generation coming from nuclear. And with commercial operation of new power plants coming online, first of all, in April of this year, Shin Hanul number two already went online, and in the second half of 2024, we expect Saeul number three to come online as well. Therefore, we believe that there will be an increased ratio of nuclear power plant-derived power generation for this year. Coal, we expect by the year end, the ratio will be remaining similar, while LNG portion is expected to slightly decrease.

So all in all, in 2024, on an annual basis, if we look at the forecast for utilization rate based on the level, the generation mix, we expect nuclear to take up early to mid-80% levels, coal early to mid-50% levels, and LNG, the late 20% levels. Next, let me introduce about RPS costs. For 2024 second quarter, the base RPS cost on a consolidated basis recorded KRW 1.7509 trillion, and on a KEPCO alone level, it recorded KRW 2.1435 trillion. Lastly, touching upon funding and capital raising, let me give you the status on that. For second quarter of 2024, the consolidated borrowings recorded KRW 131.7 trillion, and for KEPCO alone, the figure was KRW 85.2 trillion.

This concludes the 2024 Q2 earnings results presentation, and we will now move on to the Q&A session. I'm joined with many members who will be taking part in the Q&A session. Please make your questions and answers brief and concise. Now, Q&A session will begin. Please press asterisk one if you have any question. For cancellation, please press asterisk two on your phone. The first question will be given by Aaron Ma from Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Aaron Ma (Senior Relationship Manager)

Hi. Hello. Hi. Can you hear me?

Operator (participant)

Yes, we can hear you.

Aaron Ma (Senior Relationship Manager)

Hello, can you hear me? Okay. Thanks for your time. So I have three questions. The first one is, what was the average tariff rise in first half this year, and what do you expect, whether there will be any more tariff rise in second half this year? The second question is, your generation mix in the first half was 51% from nuclear, 33% from coal, and 11% from LNG. Do we have guidance for these three number for full year of 2024? And the final question is, your finance income increased a lot year-over-year in the first half. What was the reason, and would this be sustainable if U.S. interest rate is going to be lower ahead? Thank you.

Operator (participant)

[Foreign language]

Si-Young Yang (General Manager of Investor Relations)

[Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

Yes, to answer the first question, in the first half of this year, we did not conduct any tariff hikes. But given the fact that by 2027, in order to reduce the accumulated deficits that we have accrued so far, we would need to have a tariff increase take place. However, since the year 2022, we have conducted several phased tariff increases, cumulative up to 45.31% until now, and this has caused some burden on the overall inflation in the market. Therefore, we were not able to conduct a tariff hike in the first half of this year. However, we are fully aware of the necessity to do so in order to achieve financial soundness for our company.

So we are taking into consideration all of the factors in the, the market and the situations in the market, and discussing with the government to come up with the most appropriate time and level of tariff hike to take place in the second half of this year. So we are striving to make that possible in the second half.

Si-Young Yang (General Manager of Investor Relations)

[Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

Yes, allow me to respond to your second question related to the different fuel sources and how much generation is expected. KEPCO does not provide any guidance related to that. We look at the overall supply and demand situation, as well as each of the generation company's situation, in terms of what kind of plans they have for operation utilization, as well as any maintenance plans to take into consideration. So we simply look at the results that come in from them, rather than providing a guidance from KEPCO side.

Speaker 10

[Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

Yes, allow me to respond to the third question. You asked about the reasons behind the improvement of our fiscal results for the first half of this year. It was mainly due to increased revenue, thanks to last year's, 3 times tariff hikes that took place throughout the year, and also a reduction in the purchase cost for fuel because of the fuel price changes.

Speaker 10

[Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

If I may respond to the second half of your third question, that is related to forecasts about the second half results, and any impact from lowered interest rates in the U.S. Well, first of all, the expectations and forecasts for the second half will depend greatly on if we are able to, and how big of a tariff hike we can conduct in the second half of this year. And as well as any fluctuations and changes in the trends of fuel costs, which will actually impact our costs as well. Additionally, when you mentioned about possible interest rate decrease happening in the U.S. and what impact that would have, well, of course, we expect that there would be some impact from a possible drop in interest rates in terms of our financing efforts, especially for, our corporate bonds.

However, all of this would depend greatly on the overall global economic situation, and it will be a very compounded effect that we will be, impacted with. Therefore, at this point in time, it will be very difficult to get any forecasts or expectations at this point in time.

Speaker 10

[Foreign language]

Si-Young Yang (General Manager of Investor Relations)

[Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

The following question is by Sunghyun Hwang Eugene Investment & Securities. Please go ahead.

Sung-hyun Hwang (Equity Analyst and Team Manager)

Yeah. [Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

Yes, I have two questions. First of all, have there been any changes in the adjusted coefficient? And if there was, could you tell us how it has changed? And secondly, related to the industrial electricity prices, instead of simply having that lumped number given to us, could you elaborate a little further with specifics based on zones?

To answer your first question related to adjusted coefficient, there hasn't been any changes applied to the adjusted coefficient since April first of this year. As for your second question, related to specifics on sales for industrial, electricity sold or power sold, we would have to get back to you with the details at a later date when we have that information on hand.

The following question is by J.R.N. Luo from BlackRock. Please go ahead.

Jiaren Luo (Equity Analyst)

Hello, can you hear me?

Si-Young Yang (General Manager of Investor Relations)

Yes, we hear you.

Jiaren Luo (Equity Analyst)

I just... Thank you. I just have one question on power price in second quarter. Just based on the reported sales volume and revenue, it seems that there's a quarter-on-quarter decline in realized power price. I think that's partially driven by the commercial power sales. Can you elaborate if this is the case, and what's the reason behind this?

Operator (participant)

[Foreign language]

Yes, allow me to answer your question. You mentioned about the difference that you see quarter to quarter, so comparing first quarter to the second quarter about the power sales. Well, first of all, you must take into consideration the seasonal aspect, because in the second quarter, we have shifted from winter season to spring season, and there are different rate, unit prices that are applied for winter and spring. So you should take that into consideration, and the drop that came in the second quarter is probably related to the spring unit price, which is lower. Currently, there are no participants with question. Please press asterisk one to give your question. The following question is by Jae Hyun Yu from Mirae Asset Securities. Please go ahead.

Je-Hyun Ryu (Head of Transport)

[Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

Yes. First of all, my question is related to the forecast that you gave about the fuel cost. It seems like for LNG, the forecast seems a little higher compared to the average of the first half of this year. Have you taken into consideration the lowered oil prices that are being witnessed these days? Have you taken that into an assumption? And if you did make an assumption of probably lower oil prices for the second half of this year, what level have you taken into consideration as a guidance? And I also have additional questions related to the cumulative tariff system. I believe that there was some discussion about possibly relaxing this system for a certain period of time. I would like to ask if these discussions are taking place, how far along are you in those types of discussions?

What possibility do you see of that actually occurring? And if and how much of an impact would that have on your earnings results? Yes, allow me to answer the question related to fuel cost forecast. Since early this year, we have seen the prices of the Dubai at around $80 per level, per barrel, excuse me. So it has been maintained somewhat until now from the beginning of this year, at around the $80 range per barrel. Of course, our fuel cost is very closely linked with the overall international oil prices, and what we forecast is actually probably similar rates to be seen throughout the end of the year as what we have seen at the end of Q2. However, these are not official forecasts that we create and announce at KEPCO.

These are figures that are provided to us from the generation companies, and we simply refer to them as, data. So this will all depend on any future trends and fluctuations that may occur for oil prices and other fuel prices. Yes, related to the cumulative tariff system, the overall issue is related to concerns about increased burden for air conditioning and other types of electricity related costs during the sweltering hot season of summer in Korea. And taking that into consideration, we have already relaxed the summer tariff to a certain degree to make sure that the burden is not too high. And also for the more vulnerable, populations in Korea, we are providing even more discounted rates during the season.

The residential tariffs are still at a relatively low level, but we are continuing to manage the effects of supply and demand, and when possible, we plan to introduce any improvement measures that can take place for this system.

The following question is by Jason Yu from Hana Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

[Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

... Yes, I have four questions. First of all, related to cost of power purchase. I'd like to ask about what the actual details of the changes that you have seen for the cost of power purchase during the quarter. The second question is related to other expenses. If you look at the other expenses, it seems like the figures show a decrease compared to the previous year, same quarter, and also a decrease compared to the previous quarter. If you could elaborate on what the reason behind that is, and if my understanding is correct, if you could confirm that, that would be helpful. The third question is related to any reserves related to the nuclear power plant decommissioning. Have those types of plans been established to be implemented this year? Do you expect that to be implemented this year?

The fourth question is related to also the cost of power purchase. If you look at the KEPCO alone figures for Q2, it seems like it has increased. And you did mention that the adjusted coefficient has not changed since April first, but has there been any difference between the first quarter and the second quarter for this figure? Yes. Allow me to answer your first question related to the amount of power purchased as well as the volume of the power purchase. For 2024, second quarter, within the total of 130,000 GWh, 84,000 was actually from the affiliate company, so we have purchased from the Gencos that amount.

And also for the amount for Q2, among the total KRW 16 trillion, the portion that was purchased from the KEPCO Gencos is KRW 9.4 trillion.

Yes, allow me to answer your other questions. First of all, related to the decrease of other expenses, the main factor behind this decrease is the lowered or reduced cost for fuel supply for Gencos and IPPs. And also related to your other question about reserves for the decommissioning. Well, we do not do that specifically at every quarter level, but we do calculate the discount rates as well as the inflation rates that are visible from a time to time basis. So we continuously review and try to calculate that, but not at a certain specific point in time. Yes, allow me to answer your question related to the adjusted coefficient. In the beginning of the year, the adjusted coefficient that was calculated for nuclear was 0.3149, and for coal it was 0.5104.

On April first, the new calculation took place. For nuclear, it was 0.4924, and for coal it was set at 1.

The following question is by Kyung Won Moon from Meritz Securities. Please go ahead.

Kyung Moon (Research Associate)

Uh, the

Operator (participant)

Yes.

Nam-Yeon Jang (Head of Investor Relations)

[Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

Okay. The three questions that I have are as follows: First of all, you explained about the reduction of the other expenses, but I think it was not very sufficient for me to gain an understanding on the actual reason contributing to a reduction of other expenses. If you look at the figures for consolidated on a year-on-year basis, it's quite significant. It's actually above KRW 15 million. So I'd like to ask how that was brought about, such a large scale of decrease in other expenses. What is the size of the fuel provision business that you mentioned earlier, and why does it have such a big impact on reducing the other expenses? The second question that I have is related to the adjusted coefficient applied to Gencos between Gencos and KEPCO.

Well, you mentioned about how in the second quarter, the coefficient calculated for coal was 1. So since I cannot expect this to go any higher than the current figure of 1, is it safe for me to assume that in Q3 and Q4, there will be no changes or increases in this adjusted coefficient for fuel? The third question is related to utilization rate of coal-based generation. Of course, it is seeing a overall reduction trend on a gradual basis. However, this time around, that reduction seems quite significant because in Q2, the decrease was by about 6 percentage points. So what do you expect the rate will be for Q3 and Q4? And if you look at the same quarters for the previous years, do you expect another significant drop to take place for utilization rate of coal?

Tae-sub Uhm (Senior Manager of Investor Relations)

[Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

So allow me to answer your first question. Our affiliate Gencos have already concluded contracts to provide fuel to IPPs, and based upon that contract, they are already supplying fuel to the IPPs. Of course, the overall figures are bound to change based upon fluctuations of market prices for the coal, which actually continue to decrease right now. So that is all I can offer in terms of providing any reason.

Tae-sub Uhm (Senior Manager of Investor Relations)

[Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

Allow me to answer your question related to the adjusted coefficient and how that is calculated, and if we expect to see any further adjustments to take place. Well, that is something that is calculated and set by the KPX. The general rule is that it is calculated once a year. However, according to what the KPX sees as being fit, if necessary, it can go with another calculation to take place. So this year, after the initial adjusted coefficient was set in the beginning of the year, in the beginning of second quarter, that is April first, there was one adjustment that took place. Since then, we have not seen any further revisions of that adjusted coefficient. However, it all depends on what the KPX will decide as being necessary or not.

Due to the earnings results of various companies, we may be able to see one more adjustment take place, but we do not know for sure. It is really up to the KPX to decide.

Tae-sub Uhm (Senior Manager of Investor Relations)

[Foreign language]

Operator (participant)

And if I may answer your question on the third point, which is related to what we see as being the causes behind the drop in coal utilization rate, specifically, especially so for the second quarter, I think the main reasons are not just one, but multiple. First of all, there were various efforts to go through revisions and also refurbishments of the various facilities related to the environment elements in the coal plants. Also, there were some preventive maintenance activities that took place that were timed and scheduled for Q2. Additionally, there are some additional limitations in the transmission in the East Coast area. So those contributed to a drop in utilization of coal for the second quarter.

As for the timed and scheduled preventive maintenance efforts that took place in Q2, that is already done, and so we do not expect that to be another factor in the remaining time of the year for further drops and decreases of utilization for coal. However, for the other two factors, these are not things that can be resolved in a short period, therefore, they may continue to have an impact throughout the year.

Currently, there are no participants with question. Please press asterisk one to give your question. Once again, if you have a question, please press asterisk and one. As there are no further questions, we'll now end the Q&A session. For any additional inquiries, please contact our IR department. This concludes the fiscal year 2024 second quarter earnings results by KEPCO. Thank you for your participation.