Korea Electric Power - H2 2023
February 23, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning and good evening. First of all, thank you all for joining this conference call, and now we're beginning the conference of the fiscal year 2023 fourth quarter earnings results by KEPCO. This conference will start with a presentation followed by a Q&A session. If you have a question, please press asterisk 1 on your phone during the Q&A. Now we shall commence the presentation on the fiscal year 2023 fourth quarter earnings results by KEPCO.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Good afternoon. This is Si Young-young, General Manager of the Finance and IR Team of KEPCO. I would like to thank you all for participating in today's conference call for the business results for the full year 2023 despite your busy schedules. Today's call will be conducted in both Korean and English. We will begin with a brief presentation on the earnings results, which will be followed by a Q&A session. Please note that the financial information to be disclosed today are preliminary consolidated IFRS figures, and all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis. Also, business plans, targets, financial estimates, and other forward-looking statements are based on our current targets and forecasts. Therefore, please be noted that such information may involve investment risks and uncertainties. Now we will begin with an overview of the earnings results for the year-end 2023 in Korean, which will then be repeated in English.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Now we will provide the business performance overview in English. Good afternoon. I am Won Gi-jo, Senior IR Manager. The company recorded an operating loss of KRW 4,569.1 billion in 2023. In Q4, however, the company recorded a positive net income of KRW 1.9 trillion, boosting positive numbers for consecutive quarters since KRW 2 trillion net income in Q3. Revenue increased by 23.8% to KRW 88,205.1 billion. Power sales revenue rose by 25.3% to KRW 82,954.8 billion. Overseas business and other revenue rose by 3.8% to KRW 5,250.3 billion. Cost of goods sold and SG&A decreased by 10.7% to KRW 92,774.2 billion.
Fuel cost and purchased power cost decreased by 22.2% and 8.8% YOY, respectively, to KRW 26,978.3 billion and KRW 38,304.3 billion, respectively. Depreciation expense rose by 5.1% to KRW 11,314.3 billion due to an increase of depreciable assets such as new power plants, namely Shin-Hanul Unit 1. Next, I will go over the changes in the non-operating performance. Total debt stood at KRW 133,631.8 billion, which is a 10.8% increase YOY of year-end 2023 due to higher power purchase cost. Financial profit recorded a loss of KRW 3,922.4 billion, which is a KRW 1 trillion increase YOY. As a result of the foregoing, for the full year 2023, the company posted a consolidated net loss of KRW 4,656.9 billion.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Next, I'd like to go over the main points of interest, starting with power sales performance and outlook. In 2023, power sales volume decreased by 0.4% YOY to 546 TWh, mainly due to a slowdown of the manufacturing sector, which resulted in a decline of industrial power sales. In 2024, sales volume should slightly increase as the exports start to pick up.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Next, I'd like to go over the unit price of the major fuel sources. The unit fuel cost by fuel source in 2023 was KRW 230,000 per ton for coal, KRW 1.36 million per ton for LNG, and KRW 1,191 per liter for oil as international fuel prices stabilized. For the year 2024, excluding offloading costs, coal is expected to be between KRW 200,000 to KRW 300,000 per ton, KRW 1.1 million per ton for LNG, and around KRW 1,200 per liter for oil. Please note that forecast may change subject to international fuel price trends.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Looking at the generation mix of group subsidiaries, nuclear power plant utilization was similar to the previous year. However, installed capacity increased because of the addition of new power plant, Shinhan-ul Unit 1, December 2022, and the completion of maintenance of Hanbit Unit 4, which resulted in an increase of the contribution of nuclear power to the generation mix on a year-over-year basis. In case of coal, utilization decreased due to an increase of maintenance days, resulting in a lower contribution to the generation mix. The contribution of LNG also declined, mainly driven by a reduction of power demand and an increase of base generation.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
In 2024, the contribution of nuclear power plants should increase as utilization is expected to rise, as new power plants, namely Shin-Hanul Unit 2, is expected to come online in the first half, and Saeul Unit 3 is scheduled for the second half. Contribution of coal and LNG should slightly decline.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
For 2024, utilization by power source, it is projected to be low to mid-80% for nuclear power, mid-50% for coal, and mid to high 20% for LNG.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Regarding RPS and ETS cost, as of 2023, RPS cost was KRW 2,779.2 billion on consolidated basis and KRW 3,136.8 billion on standalone. ETS cost was KRW 87.8 billion on consolidated basis and KRW 76.9 billion on standalone basis.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Now let us move on to the Q&A session. Since we will be proceeding the Q&A session in both Korean and English, I'd like to ask that you make your questions brief and clear. Thank you.
[Foreign language]
Now Q&A session will begin. Please press star one if you have any questions. For cancellation, please press star two on your phone. [Foreign language]
The first question will be given by [Foreign language] from Meritz Securities. Please go ahead.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Good afternoon. I have three questions. First is regarding the standalone performance. I see that the net income for Q4 on standalone basis was quite strong and probably exceeding some of the expectations. I think there has been a one-off financial profit that drove the positive income trend in Q4. So could you please elaborate on this? Second, as of year-end 2023, it seems that the retained earnings have been transferred to a separate KEPCO entity. So in 2024, can we expect that these resources will be used for dividend payments? Third, I think there is quite strong interest regarding the shareholder return policies of public corporations in recent times. So have you had any changes in the dividend policy? Do you plan to communicate that to the market? If so, when will this be communicated to the market? Thank you.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Regarding your first question, in Q4 2023, in those numbers, the interim dividend payments upstream by the subsidiaries have been booked, which is around KRW 3.2 trillion. This is part of the dividend profits under financial profits and losses. This generated quite strong net income on standalone basis for KEPCO.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Let me address question two and question three at the same time. According to the KEPCO Act, it clearly defines the resources that we can use for dividend payments. While we are still waiting for the final numbers of 2023, if we are able to generate a positive income, we will be in line with the government's overall dividend policies for the government-related and public corporations of Korea. Keeping in mind those dividend policies of the government and considering the overall financial performance, and if we are able to generate positive business performance, I think we will be able to make more clear communication with the market regarding our dividends.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
As for your last question, I think that in 2024, the government will be reflecting shareholder return policy and performance of the public corporations in the KPI overall business management evaluations, especially for the listed public corporations. This has not been finalized yet. If the final version is distributed, we will be reviewing that, and we will be developing more clear internal dividend policy, and then we will be able to make announcements and communicate that with the market.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
The following question is by [Foreign language] from Mirae Asset Securities. Please go ahead.
Speaker 6
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Thank you. Good afternoon. I would like to have a better idea of the outlook that you have for the unit price of LNG and coal on a quarterly basis. I understand that you have not disclosed the unit price for the purchased power cost. However, it would be helpful if you can share the trend, especially on a quarterly basis, for us to better understand. Lastly, you mentioned that there were the dividend payments by subsidiaries upstream to KEPCO, and it was quite large in size. However, I am not so sure if the subsidiaries were generating very strong profit streams to be able to upstream such large amounts. So in that respect, can you talk about whether the dividend payment by subsidiaries was generated by strong profits of the subsidiaries, or were there some other reasons for those subsidiaries to upstream the dividends?
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Regarding your first question on the quarterly outlook of the price of LNG and coal, we usually disclose annual outlook but not quarterly outlook. I ask for your understanding.
Speaker 6
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Regarding your second question on disclosing the unit price of the purchased power cost, on our website, we have a section on KEPCO statistics, and the monthly actual figures are disclosed. However, in terms of the forecast and outlook, it can change quite quickly. Unfortunately, we are not able to disclose the outlook for this item.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Regarding your third question, I don't think I can speak on behalf of the subsidiaries for their dividend upstreams. But on a standalone basis, according to the KEPCO Act, there is a ceiling on the amount of bonds that KEPCO can issue. To be legally satisfying these requirements, the decision to receive the interim dividends from the subsidiaries has been made.
Speaker 6
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
The following question is by Kang Dong-jin from Hyundai Motor Securities. Please go ahead.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Yes. My name is Kang Dong-jin, and I have two questions. First of all, you mentioned the outlook of the unit price of fuel. I was wondering, in your outlook, did you incorporate the private consumption tax issue? It has been extended for six months, but once that expires, it will go back up. I was wondering if you have considered that change in your outlook. Second, regarding shareholder return and financial structure, whether it's on a standalone or a consolidated basis, I would like to know if you have any financial targets such as debt to equity, and how is your dividend policy related to those targets? For example, if debt to equity goes to this level, will you be then paying dividends to the shareholders and so on? Thank you.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Regarding your first question regarding the tax, it has been extended, and the current system has been reflected into the outlook.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Regarding the dividend policy requirements that you mentioned, we do not have a detailed dividend policy yet. Once that has been confirmed, we will be able to communicate that to the market.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Operator (participant)
The following question is by Hwang Seong-hyeon from Yujin Investment Securities. Please go ahead.
Hwang Seong-hyeon (Senior Analyst)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
I have two questions. My name is Hwang Seong-hyeon from Yujin Securities. The LNG price in the spot market has been quite weak in recent times, as have been the US natural gas prices. I know that KEPCO's pricing of these types of fuel is related to the oil price. In this respect, can we expect the cost levels of fuel to come further down compared to the outlook that you have mentioned in your presentation? Second is regarding the fuel as well. I think in Q3 for the nuclear power, you have mentioned I feel that the unit price has been somewhat on a declining trend. I would like to ask for your opinion on that. Also, given the inventory level that you have currently, do you think you will be able to exhaust it? What do you think the trend will be for this year?
Speaker 7
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Regarding your first question on LNG price, like you've mentioned, we are also aware that the spot prices have been quite weak in recent times. It takes about five to six months on average for the spot prices to have impact on our purchase price. While spot price is, of course, an important benchmark, we usually procure from KOGAS. The KOGAS mid-long-term volume secure policy is also important, and it can also have impact on our pricings as well.
Hwang Seong-hyeon (Senior Analyst)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Yes. Regarding your second question on the nuclear fuel, KHNP usually has mid-long-term contracts when they purchase the uranium, around 5 to 10-year contracts. In those contracts, KHNP is usually able to determine and control the volume of purchase during that contract period. They try to be risk-based. They are able to respond to the changing market price trends of the nuclear fuel in the market, and they use that power to maintain an appropriate level of cost of nuclear fuel. As for the inventory, it's around three years at the moment.
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Operator (participant)
The following question is by Moon Kyung-won from Merits Securities. Please go ahead.
Moon Kyung-won (Senior Analyst)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
I am Moon Kyung-won from Merits Securities, and I have one more question regarding the adjustment factor. In 2022 and 2023, the numbers have come down significantly. I am wondering the direction of the adjustment factor for 2024. Do you think it will be similar to 2023, or do you think that given the loss and the financial status of KEPCO at the moment, what do you think the adjustment factor will be, or at least the direction of it in 2024?
Speaker 7
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
To answer your question, first, if you look at the adjustment factor, a low factor does not mean that the subsidiaries are taking a lower amount. The opposite is the same as well. The high factor does not mean that the subsidiaries are taking a higher portion. Usually, we deduct the fuel cost from the SMP. That would be the margin. Then the factor will be calculated in a retrospective way. It's a retrospective number rather than a number that we set from the very beginning. I think rather than the factor itself, the profits that the subsidiaries can take on top of their cost can be more important. In this sense, the actual number of the factor can be quite insignificant, and it's also very difficult to make an outlook on that. As to the subsidiaries' profits at this stage, it's difficult to foresee as well. Unfortunately, I'm not able to give you a more clear answer on this question.
Moon Kyung-won (Senior Analyst)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Currently, there are no participants with questions. Please press asterisk one to give your question.
[Foreign language]
Once again, if you have a question, please press asterisk one.
[Foreign language]
Operator (participant)
The following question is by Hwang Seong-hyeon from Yujin Investment Securities. Please go ahead.
Hwang Seong-hyeon (Senior Analyst)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
In other items, compared to Q4 2022, there seems to be a decline. What would be the main reason for this?
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
In the previous year, we sold the former headquarters building that was booked under other items. But we do not have any similar transaction this year. I think this will be the main reason.
Hwang Seong-hyeon (Senior Analyst)
[Foreign language]
Speaker 7
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Currently, there are no participants with questions. Please press asterisk one to give your question.
Speaker 7
[Foreign language]
Operator (participant)
The following question is by Kang Dong-jin from Hyundai Motor Securities. Please go ahead.
Kang Dong-jin (Senior Analyst)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
I am looking forward to hearing your CapEx numbers, CapEx guidance for 2024 and 2025. I understand that most of the new power plants that were under construction are coming online soon. So what would be the CapEx figures for 24 and 25?
Yang Si-young (General Manager of Finance and IR Team)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
For 2024 annual number on consolidated basis, CapEx is expected to be around KRW 17.6 trillion, and then 2025, KRW 19.9 trillion. These are CapEx numbers for the domestic market. 2024 transmission and distribution should be around KRW 8.2 trillion, nuclear power plant KRW 4.2 trillion, thermal power KRW 3.7 trillion, and the remaining will be mostly renewable energy and others.
Kang Dong-jin (Senior Analyst)
[Foreign language]
Jo Won-gi (Senior IR Manager)
Currently, there are no participants with questions. Please press asterisk one to give your question. [Foreign language] As there are no further questions, we are now ending the Q&A session. This concludes the fiscal year 2023 fourth quarter earnings results by KEPCO. Thank you for your participation.