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    ORTHOPEDIATRICS (KIDS)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Apr 3, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$22.89Last close (Mar 4, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$22.28Open (Mar 5, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.61(-2.66%)
    • The company's OPSB franchise is experiencing strong growth and high demand, with plans to expand into new territories beyond the initial four in 2025, indicating substantial growth potential with over 20% expected growth for several years.
    • High-margin products like DF2 and PNP Tibia are exceeding expectations, with DF2 experiencing rapid demand leading to the need for expanded manufacturing, contributing significantly to revenue growth.
    • The 7D technology is already driving growth in the scoliosis segment, contributing to accelerated revenue in Q3 and Q4, with substantial impact expected in 2025 and beyond, increasing confidence in scoliosis growth.
    • The company has decreased capital expenditures on set deployments from $23 million to $20 million and now down to $15 million, which may risk underinvesting in legacy trauma and spine businesses and potentially impact future growth in those segments. There is concern that this could lead to a need for a significant increase in set deployments in future years to support growth.
    • Potential changes in Medicaid coverage could negatively impact the company's revenues, as a significant portion of patients may be covered by Medicaid. Uncertainty around policy changes may pose a risk to the business.
    • Gross margin pressure due to reclassification of certain expenses into cost of goods sold, resulting in a decrease in gross margin from previous levels. While the company aims to maintain gross margins, there is uncertainty about future improvements.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Net Revenue

    +40% (from $37,613K in Q4 2023 to $52,667K in Q4 2024)

    Strong revenue growth driven by increased volume in core business segments (notably Trauma and Deformity and Scoliosis), bolstering overall sales compared to Q4 2023. This acceleration reflects both organic expansion and potential benefits from previous period momentum.

    Gross Profit

    +33% (from $26,714K to $35,565K)

    Gross profit increased in line with improved net revenue, although the slightly lower growth rate compared to revenue indicates some margin pressure, likely due to evolving product mix and associated cost of goods sold dynamics relative to Q4 2023.

    Operating Expenses

    +42% (from $34,780K to $49,620K)

    A sharp rise in operating expenses reflects higher investments in personnel, integration, and expanded sales and marketing efforts that were initiated in previous periods, which now intensified as the business scaled, outpacing revenue growth.

    Operating Loss

    Widened by 74% (from -$8,066K to -$14,055K)

    Operating loss deterioration is mainly due to increased expenses exceeding the gross profit gains, indicating that cost escalations (personnel, integration, and other non-recurring costs) are not yet offset by the revenue expansion seen since Q4 2023.

    Net (Loss) Income

    Deepened to -$16,069K (from -$6,691K)

    Net loss worsened over 2.4× primarily as a result of the expanded operating expenses and margin compression, compounded by a reduction or absence of other income items that previously helped mitigate losses in Q4 2023.

    Geographic Revenue (U.S./International)

    U.S. $42.89M (≈81% of total); International $9.77M

    Geographic revenue remains heavily weighted to the U.S. (≈81%), underscoring domestic market strength, while international markets continue to contribute modestly. This distribution is consistent with prior period trends, suggesting that while domestic growth drives overall revenue, international expansion remains an ongoing focus.

    Business Segment Revenue

    Trauma and Deformity: $36.39M; Scoliosis: $15.68M; Sports Medicine/Other: $0.58M

    Segment contributions show that Trauma and Deformity remains the dominant revenue driver, Scoliosis has experienced significant acceleration, and Sports Medicine/Other continues to be a minor component. These dynamics echo the historical pattern where core segments fuel growth, but with evolving emphasis that is now more pronounced in Q4 2024.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue

    FY 2025

    "$202 million to $204 million, YoY growth 36%–37% "

    "$235 million to $242 million, YoY growth 15%–18% "

    raised

    Revenue growth

    FY 2025

    "36%–37% "

    "15%–18% "

    lowered

    Gross Margin

    FY 2025

    "74% to 75% "

    "72% to 73% "

    lowered

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2025

    "$8 million to $9 million "

    "$15 million to $17 million "

    raised

    New Set Deployment

    FY 2025

    "Less than $20 million "

    "Approximately $15 million "

    lowered

    Seasonal Virus Impact Assumptions

    FY 2024

    "Assumes same reported RSV and flu cases as last fall "

    "no current guidance"

    no current guidance

    EU MDR Certification

    FY 2024

    "Anticipated to be finalized by mid‑2025 "

    "no current guidance"

    no current guidance

    Free Cash Flow

    FY 2025

    "no prior guidance"

    "First quarter of positive free cash flow in Q4 2025 "

    no prior guidance

    Tariffs and Government Changes

    FY 2025

    "no prior guidance"

    "Assumes no impact from tariffs; minimal effect "

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    OPSB Growth and Clinic Expansion

    Consistently highlighted in Q1–Q3 as a rapidly growing business with aggressive territory expansion, robust product pipeline, and early clinic acquisitions driving long‐term scale

    Q4 emphasized rapid revenue growth, manufacturing scaling for DF2, and strategic greenfield clinic expansions with clear guidance for 2025

    Steady and intensifying growth focus, with increasing operational scale and confidence in nationwide expansion

    7D Technology in Scoliosis Segment

    Q1 and Q3 calls noted early placements and strong surgeon feedback, with early revenue contributions and a growing installed base (Q2 had general positive mentions outside scoliosis)

    Q4 call reinforced that 7D technology is a key revenue driver with consistent placements and strong impact on scoliosis revenue growth for future quarters

    Evolving positive sentiment with stronger and more consistent deployment, reinforcing its role as a strategic growth lever

    High‐Margin Product Performance (DF2, PNP Tibia, etc.)

    From Q1 to Q3, high‐margin products were repeatedly praised for exceeding sales expectations and providing robust margins despite early launch challenges

    Q4 reiterated exceptional performance, noting DF2’s rapid demand, expanded indications, and PNP Tibia’s record sales as central to future growth

    Consistently strong performance with incremental improvements in market acceptance and supply chain scaling, reinforcing its strategic importance

    Trauma, Deformity, and Legacy Spine/Trauma Business Dynamics

    Across Q1–Q3, this segment was characterized by strong revenue growth, successful set deployments, and a gradual shift from legacy products toward new technology launches

    Q4 emphasized continued robust domestic and international growth, with strategic shifts to focus on new products and reduced reliance on legacy inventory

    Solid and evolving dynamics with a maintained growth trajectory, while transitioning from legacy-heavy deployments to newer, higher-margin product innovations

    Margin and Cost Pressures Impacting Profitability

    Q1–Q3 discussions pointed to declining gross margins due to product mix changes, reclassification of expenses, and rising operating costs despite some EBITDA improvements

    Q4 reported a slight decline in gross margin (68% vs. 71% YoY) mainly due to reclassification adjustments and strategic production changes, with optimism for stabilization at 72–73% over the coming years

    Ongoing margin pressures due to cost reclassifications and increased expenses, yet management remains cautiously optimistic about near‐term stability and potential margin uplift

    International Revenue and Market Challenges

    Q1–Q3 highlighted strong international growth driven by robust performance in scoliosis and T&D, yet noted challenges from currency fluctuations, regulatory hurdles, and prior-year stocking anomalies

    Q4 recorded moderate 5% YoY international revenue growth with continued challenges in South America and pending EU MDR audit outcomes, despite strong non-LatAm performance

    Continued growth with mixed challenges; international markets remain promising but are tempered by regulatory delays and currency-related issues

    Seasonal and External Healthcare Factors (RSV, Flu, Medicaid Changes)

    Q1–Q3 addressed seasonality and RSV/flu impacts (and even hurricanes in Q3) affecting surgery volumes with cautious outlooks on summer performance; Medicaid changes were not previously mentioned

    Q4 expanded the discussion by reaffirming seasonal patterns (e.g. summer and December peaks) and introduced Medicaid coverage changes as a new factor to monitor, while still acknowledging RSV/flu impacts

    Seasonality remains a constant risk, with the added nuance of monitoring Medicaid-related changes emerging in Q4, potentially affecting future demand

    New Product Launches and Regulatory Hurdles (Early Onset Scoliosis, EU MDR Delays)

    Q1–Q3 consistently covered a robust pipeline including EOS devices (RESPONSE, eLLi, Vertiglide), PNP Tibia, DF2, and new external fixation systems; regulatory challenges were acknowledged, particularly around FDA pathways and early delays

    Q4 maintained focus on new launches with strong momentum in scoliosis and fusion implant systems while highlighting ongoing regulatory hurdles—specifically EU MDR certification delays expected mid-2025—and slight timing adjustments for U.S. approvals

    Persistent pipeline strength combined with regulatory hurdles that remain a challenge; growth opportunities continue but require managing delays and compliance issues effectively

    Capital Expenditure Reductions on Set Deployments in Legacy Segments

    Q1–Q3 repeatedly mentioned efforts to limit new set deployments to less than $20 million, reflecting a gradual shift away from legacy capital-intensive approaches

    Q4 confirmed that set deployment remains under $20 million, with a strategic focus on reducing legacy inventory investments to drive cash flow improvements toward 2026

    Consistent emphasis on capital efficiency, with ongoing reductions in legacy set deployments as a strategic step toward achieving cash flow breakeven

    1. Gross Margin Outlook
      Q: Is there room for margin improvement in 2025-26?
      A: Management believes there are opportunities to improve gross margins over the next several years through consolidation and cost efficiencies. While they are keeping guidance flat at 72%-73% gross margin, they acknowledge potential upside as they focus on reviewing cost of goods sold.

    2. OPSB Growth Potential
      Q: How will OPSB contribute to growth in 2025?
      A: OPSB is expected to grow over 20% in 2025, driven by high demand for clinic expansion and products like DF2 exceeding expectations. Management sees OPSB as a capital-efficient growth driver within a $500 million total addressable market.

    3. Set Deployment and Capital Needs
      Q: Will lower set deployments impact growth?
      A: Management plans to deploy $15 million in new sets in 2025, focusing on new products rather than legacy ones. They assure that this level will not starve the business and see no risk to growth from reduced capital expenditures.

    4. International Expansion and EU MDR
      Q: How will EU MDR clearance affect international sales?
      A: EU MDR approvals are expected by mid-2025, enabling product launches in Europe and contributing to growth. Management anticipates scoliosis revenue to grow in the EU, reducing reliance on Latin American markets.

    5. Impact of Medicaid Coverage Changes
      Q: Will changes in Medicaid affect the business?
      A: Management does not expect significant impact from potential Medicaid changes, believing children will continue to receive necessary care through existing healthcare systems and support structures.

    Research analysts covering ORTHOPEDIATRICS.