KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 delivered strong recurring earnings: FRE $843M ($0.94/adj share, +25% y/y), TOE $1.10B ($1.23/adj share, +19% y/y), and ANI $1.19B ($1.32/adj share, +33% y/y) amid continued fundraising and deployment momentum .
- Capital Markets revenue was $270M in Q4 and crossed $1.0B for the first time on a full-year basis, a structural driver as deployment/exit activity normalizes .
- AUM reached $638B (+15% y/y); FPAUM $512B (+15% y/y); organic capital raised was $27B in Q4 and $114B for 2024, with dry powder at $110B and perpetual capital at $268B (+20% y/y) .
- Strategic Holdings outlook raised: projected operating earnings to $350M+ (2026), $700M+ (2028), $1.1B+ (2030); regular dividend to be lifted from $0.70 to $0.74 annualized beginning with Q1’25 results; Q4 dividend declared at $0.175/share .
- Estimate context: Street consensus from S&P Global was unavailable at time of analysis due to data access limits; comparison to estimates not included (we default to S&P Global when available).
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
- What Went Well
- Strong recurring earnings: “Fee-related earnings per share came in at $0.94… adjusted net income $1.32 per share,” both the second-highest quarterly figures ever; FRE +24% y/y, ANI +32% y/y (management) .
- Capital Markets scaled: $270M Q4 and $1.0B FY first time; mix broadened beyond PE into infrastructure and credit (CFO) .
- Strategic Holdings acceleration: KKR increasing stakes in USI, 1-800 Contacts, Heartland Dental; raises Strategic Holdings OE guidance to $350M+ (2026), $700M+ (2028), $1.1B+ (2030) (management) .
- What Went Wrong
- Insurance OE steady but intentionally subdued near term: run-rate “plus or minus” Q4 level as GA shifts to longer-duration/private assets, dampening accounting ROE near term (CFO) .
- Private Equity portfolio was flat in Q4 (0% QoQ) even as full-year +14%—reflecting factor dispersion and small-cap underperformance relative to large-cap indices (IR) .
- FRE margin stepped down sequentially (71% in Q3 to 67% in Q4) amid higher distribution/placement expense tied to wealth buildout (CFO) .
Financial Results
Core earnings (segment metrics)
GAAP
Margins (quarterly)
Segment/business line detail (selected)
KPIs and capital activity
Additional operating color:
- Capital Markets transaction fees: $270M in Q4; $1.002B in FY’24 (first time crossing $1B); ~70% debt-focused in Q4 .
- Balance sheet embedded unrealized gains: ~$3.0B at year end; gross unrealized performance income (carry) $7.9B .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We had a really solid end to the year. Fee-related earnings per share came in at $0.94… and adjusted net income came in at $1.32 per share… both the second highest quarterly figure in our history.” – Craig Larson .
- “Our capital markets business saw another strong revenue quarter at $270 million, bringing the 2024 total to $1 billion for the first time in our history.” – Robert Lewin .
- “We will be increasing the existing stakes of 3 businesses that we know well… KKR will invest $1.1 billion… and we are increasing our guidance for strategic holdings operating earnings… to $350+ million in 2026, $700+ million in 2028, and $1.1+ billion in 2030.” – Scott Nuttall/Robert Lewin .
- “The sun is out, and we’re running on flat road… conditions and forecasts are good… we’re picking up speed.” – Scott Nuttall on 2025 setup .
- “We would expect over the next couple of quarters to have insurance operating earnings that is plus or minus where we were in Q4… as we transition… to longer-duration/private markets exposure.” – Robert Lewin .
Q&A Highlights
- Fundraising/Management fees: First close for Americas PE ahead of plan; management fee growth expected to accelerate vs 2024, supporting 2026 FRE/share target ($4.50+) (management) .
- Monetization outlook: Expect 2025 monetizations up vs 2024; supportive equity levels and tight spreads; embedded gains approaching ~$16B across balance sheet positions (CFO) .
- Strategic Holdings: Own roughly ~20% direct across core PE businesses; timing driven by maturity and partner liquidity, aiming to scale long-duration dividends (management) .
- Wealth channel: ~$100B of AUM from individuals; K-Series growing across PE/Infra; Capital Group partnership opens the mass affluent (90%+ of households) (management) .
- Asset-Based Finance: ABF AUM ~$70B (+40% y/y); large market with bank partnership opportunities; GA enhances sourcing and scale (IR/management) .
Estimates Context
- We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 (EPS and revenue) but could not due to data access limits at request time; therefore, beat/miss vs Street is not included. When available, we use S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus as the default benchmark for estimate comparisons.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Recurring earnings engine is scaling: FRE and TOE remain robust with broad-based fee growth (mgmt fees + transaction/capital markets), even as GAAP revenue is more volatile due to Insurance accounting .
- Strategic Holdings is becoming a material multi‑year contributor: guidance raised to $1.1B+ OE by 2030, accelerating cash-like, dividend-driven earnings without heavy headcount growth .
- Wealth distribution is a structural tailwind: K-Series growth and Capital Group hybrid products should diversify and expand fee bases through the mass affluent channel beginning 2025 .
- Insurance near-term earnings steady but mix improving: OE run-rate roughly flat near term as KKR/GA shift to longer-duration/private assets that should enhance long-term economics/ROE .
- Monetization/carry setup constructive: improving exit markets plus large embedded gains and $7.9B gross unrealized carry position KKR for higher investing earnings as 2025 progresses .
- Capital Markets is a differentiator: $1B+ FY revenue validates platform breadth; should remain leveraged to deployment/exit cycles across infra, PE, and credit .
- Watch list: timing of Americas/Asia PE closes and fee “turn-ons,” pace of infra/climate fundraising/deployment, GA investment mix/ROE glidepath, and strategic holdings dividend flow trajectory .
Citations:
- Q4 2024 8-K and Exhibit 99.1:
- Q4 2024 press release pointer:
- Q4 2024 call transcript:
- Q3 2024 8-K:
- Q3 2024 call transcript:
- Q2 2024 call transcript: