Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- KKR expects monetizations to increase in 2025 and beyond, supported by a healthy portfolio with embedded gains approaching $16 billion, the highest in the company's history, indicating strong potential for cash flow and investment returns.
- KKR achieved its second-best fundraising year ever in 2024, raising $114 billion, with significant contributions from newer strategies that didn't exist five years ago, and expects fundraising momentum to continue in 2025, demonstrating strong growth prospects.
- KKR sees attractive global investment opportunities, including public-to-private transactions and corporate carve-outs, which have been their best-performing investments over their nearly 49-year history, particularly in markets like Japan and Europe, positioning the firm for strong future growth.
- KKR's expected increase in monetizations in 2025 is dependent on a relatively benign market environment, introducing uncertainty to revenue projections. Robert Lewin stated, "you're going to need somewhat of a relative benign environment to be able to access that over time."
- The traditional private equity portfolio showed a flat return in Q4 2024, which may indicate challenges in generating consistent performance in their core business. Analyst Michael Brown noted the 0% return quarter-over-quarter for traditional PE, and Craig Larson acknowledged the difficulty in drawing conclusions from short-term performance.
- Global Atlantic's shift towards longer-dated liabilities and increased investments in private assets is intentionally bringing down ROE and accounting P&L in the short term, potentially leading to subdued earnings from the insurance segment. Robert Lewin explained, "we're bringing down ROE and the accounting P&L as we transition," and expects insurance operating earnings to be "plus or minus where we were in Q4" over the next few quarters.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Overall Total Revenue | 58% increase (from $4.430 billion in Q4 2023 to $7.013 billion in Q4 2024) | Strong revenue growth driven by robust performance across multiple business lines including higher transaction fees, increased management fees, and stronger capital allocation gains, building on previous periods’ momentum and market opportunities. This jump indicates effective leveraging of prior trends with continued operational expansion. |
Net Income | Increased dramatically from approximately $1.435 billion in Q3 2024 to $20.843 billion in Q4 2024 | A massive turnaround in profitability compared to prior period performance, suggesting extraordinary gains and improved portfolio effectiveness that far outpaced earlier results. This surge may reflect one-off realizations as well as ongoing operational improvements, though such volatility demands careful forward-looking risk assessment. |
Asset Management Total Revenue | Declined by roughly 32% (from $4.792 billion in Q3 2024 to $3.258 billion in Q4 2024) | The decline is mainly attributable to lower fee-based income such as reduced transaction fees and carried interest compared to the previous quarter. This reversal compared to earlier strong performance indicates that market conditions or timing of fee recognitions shifted, which may prompt adjustments in strategy. |
Asset Management Net Investment Income | Swung from a positive $1.702 billion in Q3 2024 to a negative $4.268 billion in Q4 2024 | This stark adverse shift suggests that portfolio yields deteriorated significantly, possibly due to market volatility, suboptimal asset rotations, or increased expense ratios compared to the robust results in Q3 2024. The swing indicates that investment income’s sensitivity to market dynamics is now a key challenge moving forward. |
Insurance Revenue within Asset Management | Fell nearly 27% (from $2.523 billion in Q3 2024 to $1.832 billion in Q4 2024) | The decline is driven primarily by lower net premiums and related fee income, which contrasts with previous robust contributions from insurance operations. This drop suggests a shift in underwriting or market conditions that will likely need to be addressed to stabilize future insurance revenue streams. |
Interest Expense | Increased about 68% (from $78.508 million in Q3 2024 to $132.119 million in Q4 2024) | The significant rise is due to increased borrowings, new debt issuances at higher coupon rates, and consolidation impacts from closing CLOs. This builds on previous period trends and reflects a heavier reliance on debt financing, which could have implications for future earnings due to higher fixed financing costs. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
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Annual Dividend | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $0.74 | no prior guidance |
Strategic Holdings Operating Earnings | FY 2026 | $300+ million | $350+ million | raised |
Strategic Holdings Operating Earnings | FY 2028 | $600+ million | $700+ million | raised |
Strategic Holdings Operating Earnings | FY 2030 | $1 billion+ | $1.1 billion+ | raised |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Consistent Fundraising Momentum | In Q1–Q3, fundraising was noted for its broad-based appeal—from private credit growth in Q1 to significant Q2 K-Series deals and a robust $87 billion YTD in Q3 —with growing emphasis on diversification. | In Q4, KKR raised $114 billion in new capital, with only 15% from flagship funds and a clear emphasis on emerging fund strategies and the early stages of a fundraising super cycle. | Upward momentum and enhanced diversification are evident as the firm shifts focus toward innovative strategies and non-flagship sources. |
Monetizations and Embedded Gains | Q1 highlighted a $400 million monetization pipeline and modest embedded gains ; Q2 saw $500 million expected revenue and a carry balance increase ; Q3 reported record monetization proceeds and significant embedded gains. | Q4 emphasized an increase in monetizations with expectations for higher 2025 figures and noted embedded gains nearing $16 billion, while still relying on benign market conditions. | Growing monetization activity and increasingly robust embedded gains are reflected across periods, with continued reliance on favorable market environments. |
Capital Markets Activity | Earlier periods (Q1–Q3) featured strong capital markets performance with annual revenues near $600 million in Q1 and record quarterly figures (e.g. $424 million in Q3) despite caution over one‑time fee spikes. | Q4 reported $270 million in capital markets revenue for the quarter, contributing to a full‑year milestone of $1 billion, with an emphasis on the diversified and sustainable nature of the business. | Steady performance with a longer‑term, diversified view is maintained amid concerns over quarterly variability and fee sustainability. |
Infrastructure Business Expansion | Consistently noted since Q2—with AUM growing from $15 billion to $73–77 billion in Q2 and Q3 respectively, and a strong emphasis on digital infrastructure —while Q1 provided minimal details. | Q4 focused on continued fundraising efforts, reporting $17 billion raised for infrastructure, the upcoming Asia strategy launch, and a robust global data center portfolio valued at about $50 billion. | Consistent and broad‑based growth with geographic and sector expansion positions infrastructure as a major long‑term growth driver. |
Traditional Private Equity Performance | Across Q1–Q3, the private equity portfolio showed modest quarterly gains (4%–5%) and solid 12‑month appreciation (17%–19%), although near‑term ROE challenges were repeatedly acknowledged due to strategic investments. | Q4 exhibited a flat quarter‑on‑quarter performance but a 14% full‑year appreciation, with explicit mention of near‑term ROE adjustments driven by longer‑dated liabilities and strategic shifts. | Stable long‑term appreciation but cautious near‑term sentiment as strategic investments depress immediate ROE while promising improved future earnings. |
Global Atlantic/Insurance Segment Performance | Q1–Q3 discussions noted strong operating performance, temporary ROE drag from large block transactions, elevated liquidity, and active coordination across asset classes. | Q4 confirmed continued capital contributions, a strategic shift toward elongating liability profiles, and subdued short‑term accounting P&L—with expectations of improved P&L and ROE over time. | A strategic transition is underway: short‑term performance is muted by liquidity and redeployment challenges, but long‑term fundamentals remain robust. |
Emergence of New Investment Platforms | Q1 highlighted platforms with $50 billion in ABF AUM, a growing private credit business (reaching $93 billion), and modest K‑Series inflows. Q2 saw marked acceleration (K‑Series growing from $3 billion to $11 billion and expanded private credit opportunities), while Q3 reinforced rapid ABF and K‑Series growth with significant AUM and origination figures. | In Q4, the narrative emphasized further expansion in asset-based finance (with 40%+ AUM growth), substantial increases in private credit, and K‑Series AUM rising from $7 billion to $18 billion, underlining dynamic product innovation and strong investor interest. | Rapid expansion and innovation characterize these platforms, indicating enhanced client access and diversification with significant positive momentum across periods. |
Underutilization of Secondary Market Opportunities | Q1 featured a clear message that the secondary market is “not a need‑to‑have” and subsequent calls (notably Q2) reiterated its low priority, with Q3 providing no additional focus. | In Q4, this topic was not mentioned at all. | Phased out as a focus area, suggesting deprioritization in favor of higher‑value initiatives. |
Broader Macroeconomic Sensitivity | Q1 comments noted reliance on improving market conditions (e.g. leveraged finance and CLO formation) and potential impacts on monetization pipelines; Q2 and Q3 included cautionary statements about volatility and external risks affecting returns. | Q4 did not explicitly address heightened macroeconomic sensitivity, though reliance on benign markets for monetizations was mentioned. | Less explicit discussion in Q4—while underlying sensitivity remains, the tone shifted toward optimism and resilience despite potential market risks. |
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2025 Investment Outlook
Q: What is your investment outlook for 2025 amid macro challenges?
A: KKR's view remains optimistic for 2025 despite macro challenges. They expect the M&A market to pick up this year, with increased investing, monetization, and fundraising. Volatility is seen as an opportunity, and they anticipate more investing activity globally. -
Fundraising Outlook
Q: How do you see fundraising progressing given upcoming flagships and better conditions?
A: KKR expects continued strong fundraising, potentially exceeding their $300 billion-plus target over 2024–2026. Drivers include ongoing momentum in Global Atlantic, institutional and private wealth channels, and upcoming flagship funds. The breadth of their platform, with 85% of 2024 capital raised from credit and real assets, supports this outlook. -
Monetization Expectations
Q: How are you thinking about the monetization environment in 2025?
A: KKR expects monetizations to increase in 2025 compared to 2024 due to conducive market conditions, including high equity values and tight credit spreads. Their strong portfolio performance and significant embedded gains of nearly $16 billion position them well for increased monetizations. -
Wealth Management Growth
Q: Where do you see the greatest opportunity in wealth management?
A: KKR is expanding in wealth management through K Series products tailored to individual investors, which grew from $7 billion to $18 billion in AUM over the past year. The partnership with Capital Group opens access to the mass affluent market, representing a significant growth opportunity. -
Asset-Based Finance Expansion
Q: Can you update us on the asset-based finance platform and growth plans?
A: KKR's asset-based finance AUM reached $70 billion, up over 40% year-over-year. They see attractive risk-reward opportunities due to high barriers to entry and banks optimizing balance sheets, creating a void that KKR can fill. Continued significant growth is expected in this area. -
Strategic Holdings Investment
Q: Why is now the right time to increase investments in strategic holdings?
A: KKR is increasing its stake in three businesses within strategic holdings, owning roughly 20% of their core private equity businesses. The maturity of these companies and the opportunity for long-term earnings growth make it an attractive time to invest more capital. -
Private Equity Opportunities
Q: How are you thinking about deployment opportunities in private equity?
A: KKR remains confident in its private equity performance and sees attractive deployment opportunities, including public-to-private deals, corporate carve-outs, and sponsor-to-sponsor transactions globally. They believe the current environment offers numerous ways to invest effectively. -
Insurance Earnings Outlook
Q: How should we think about Global Atlantic's growth and earnings in 2025?
A: KKR's insurance subsidiary, Global Atlantic, is transitioning to longer-dated liabilities and more private assets. While this may subdue accounting P&L in the near term, they expect better P&L outcomes and improved ROEs over time from this evolved shift. -
Data Center Investments
Q: Has recent innovation changed your approach to data center investments?
A: KKR believes long-term data center demand is growing due to increased data generation, cloud, and AI needs. Their investments did not ascribe meaningful value to AI demand in original underwriting, so recent innovations are seen as upside. They focus on strategic locations and avoid speculative building. -
Infrastructure Fundraising
Q: Can you expand on fundraising and deployment in infrastructure funds?
A: KKR is actively fundraising for their infrastructure strategies, with Infrastructure V having raised $17 billion as of December 31. They expect to launch fundraising for their Asia infrastructure strategy shortly and feel positive about progress and deployment in these funds. -
Monetization Timing
Q: Do you expect increased monetizations to be more in the first or second half?
A: KKR anticipates increased monetizations in 2025 compared to 2024, but the timing is fluid and depends on market conditions. They have approximately $400 million of high-visibility revenue, but the exact quarterly distribution is uncertain.
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