Kinetik - Q1 2023
May 4, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Hello, everyone, welcome to the Kinetik first quarter 2023 earnings call. My name is Chach and I'll be the Coordinator for this conference. After the presentation, there'll be a Q&A session where you can ask a question by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, you may press star two. I would now, hand over to Madeleine Wagner, Director of Investor Relations to begin. Please go ahead.
Madeleine Wagner (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Kinetik's first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Here with me is our President and Chief Executive Officer, Jamie Welch, as well as Matt Wall, our Chief Operating Officer, Steve Stellato, our Chief Accounting and Administrative Officer, Todd Carpenter, our General Counsel, Trevor Howard, our VP of Finance, and Kris Kindrick and Tyler Milam, our VPs of Commercial. The press release we issued yesterday, the slide presentation and access to the webcast for today's call are available at www.kinetik.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including the question and answer section, will provide forward-looking statements and actual results could differ from what is described in these statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve a number of risks and assumptions.
We may also provide certain performance measures that do not conform to US GAAP. We've provided schedules that reconcile these non-GAAP measures as part of our earnings press release. After our prepared remarks, we will open the call to Q&A. With that, I will turn the call over to Jamie.
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
Thank you, Madeleine. Good morning, everyone, thank you for joining us today. As the degree of interest in the Kinetik story increases, we've decided to shift our approach to our quarterly calls. We will be more selective with our prepared commentary to avoid unnecessary repetition with our press release and accompanying earnings presentation. Our goal with this change is to be respectful of your time and emphasize more of an open forum with the broader leadership team, which we hope leads to a more interactive and informative Q&A session. Let me get started. Yesterday, we reported first quarter 2023 Adjusted EBITDA of $187.5 million in line with our internal budget. Beginning in March, we saw a ramp-up in activity and volumes across our system.
To put things into perspective, most of our turn in line activity in any year, and certainly after Winter Storm Uri, occurs during late first quarter and continues through the third quarter. We expect 70% of our new wells connected to the system in 2023 to occur during the six-month window from March through August. Today, gathered and processed natural gas volumes are at all-time record highs. In April, we processed an average of 1.52 billion cubic feet per day, representing a 21% increase over the equivalent fourth quarter 2022 volumes. We expect sustained momentum throughout the year, supported by an active customer base and our performance from recent wells connected to the system. We are certainly seeing rising GORs across our system, indicating that the basin is getting gassier.
To succinctly frame our situation, we exceeded our 2023 exit rate guidance of 1.5 billion cubic feet per day of processed volumes in April, and currently expect to exit 2023 at 1.6 billion cubic feet per day of processed volume. This new exit rate represents a year-over-year increase of over 25%. In late March, we closed on a small acquisition of a midstream infrastructure system in Reeves County, supported by a new 20-year agreement with one of our largest customers. The $65 million acquisition represents a less than 4x EBITDA multiple right out of the gate. We also executed a win-win incentive agreement with the customer, accelerating additional near-term drilling activity on dedicated acreage for gas processing and produced water services.
The material revenue uplift from this incentive program will effectively start in 2024 and results in less than a 4x set up multiple. As Kinder Morgan remarked last week, we are making progress on the PHP expansion. Due to supply chain constraints for certain components and materials, the expected in-service date has been delayed to December 2023. During the first and second quarters, we have actively hedged our 2023 and 2024 commodity exposure. As of March 31st, 94% of our remaining 2023 gross profit is from fixed fee contracts and hedges. We now anticipate achieving the high end of our 2023 EBITDA guidance of $800 million-$860 million, even with the delayed in-service of the PHP expansion.
Our exit rate for 2023 is now well over $900 million of annualized EBITDA, and our EBITDA step change from 2023 to 2024 remains intact. Our 2023 capital expenditures are trending towards the upper end of our guidance range, due principally to the accelerated producer activity requiring additional compression to support these higher volumes. We are continuing to evaluate portfolio monetization opportunities, particularly our stake in Gulf Coast Express Pipeline. As a means to accelerate the achievement of our capital allocation priorities. A potential monetization of GCX would have an immediate impact to the DRIP, accelerate the achievement of our 3.5 times leverage target, and allow us to pull forward the point at which we return capital to shareholders.
On the operations front, our team has done an exceptional job ensuring flow assurance and reliability for our customers while keeping operating costs down. Despite higher than expected volumes and continued materials and labor cost inflation, remaining 2023 operating expenses are right in line with internal expectations from our budget in February. In April, we placed the Diamond Cryo expansion in service. The project was both on budget and on time. Now our installed processing capacity exceeds 2 billion cubic feet per day. Our gathering system expansion into Lea County, New Mexico is proceeding as planned. The project is on budget and on schedule and should be in service in January 2024, well ahead of the expected contract start date of April first. We are currently in commercial discussions with several New Mexico producers and are excited about the potential near-term opportunities.
We will continue to provide more commercial and operational updates related to our New Mexico activities as they occur. Delaware Link, our 30-inch residue gas pipeline to Waha, is on budget and on schedule. We are targeting an in-service date in October. With that, I'd like to hand the call over to Trevor Howard, our VP of Finance.
Trevor Howard (VP of Finance)
Thanks, Jamie. We reported pro forma Adjusted EBITDA of $187 million in the first quarter of 2023. Looking at our segment results, our Midstream Logistics segment generated an Adjusted EBITDA of $119 million in the quarter. As Jamie mentioned, we saw a ramp-up in volumes beginning in March. We have seen meaningful growth in April, which will benefit our second quarter and full year results. Shifting to our Pipeline Transportation segment, we generated an Adjusted EBITDA of $72 million, up 4% year-over-year. Growth within the segment was driven by volume and margin expansion at Chinook and EPIC Crude, as well as the receipt of a tariff settlement at GCX. Throughout the quarter, we de-risked and strengthened our balance sheet.
Through our commodity hedging program, we reduced our remaining 2023 commodity link gross profit to 6%, down from 10% when we initiated 2023 guidance. From a capital investment standpoint, total capital expenditures for the quarter were $121 million, which is approximately 23% of expected capital expenditures in 2023. $49 million was within our Midstream Logistics segment, $72 million was at the Pipeline Transportation segment. For the quarter, we generated an Adjusted Distributable Cash Flow of $127 million and free cash flow of $26 million. Turning to the balance sheet, Kinetik exited the quarter with a 4.0 times leverage ratio. We swapped a significant portion of our floating interest rate exposure to fixed in March.
In total, since our comprehensive refinancing last June, we have executed two and a quarter billion dollars of fixed rate swaps for the May 2023 through May 2025 period. Our average swap rate implies an attractive 6.1% average cost of debt across our bank facilities and our 2030 senior notes. Currently, only 8% of our total current debt is exposed to floating interest rates. On April 19th, we declared a $0.75 per share quarterly dividend to be paid on May 17th. This represents a dividend coverage ratio of approximately 1.2 times for the full quarter. During the first quarter, we opportunistically repurchased approximately 82,000 shares for $2.4 million under the previously announced $100 million repurchase program. The repurchased Kinetik shares will partially offset share issuances under the DRIP.
Turning to our sustainability initiatives, I am pleased to share that we have made significant progress. We reduced our 2022 Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 8% as compared to 2021. Similarly, we reduced our Scope 1 and Scope 2 methane emissions intensity by 13% year-over-year in 2022. This was achieved in part through our LIDAR program, compressor blow down best practices, and new equipment installations. As a direct result of our emissions intensity reduction efforts and corporate diversity initiatives, we achieved our Sustainability-Linked Financing Framework performance targets for 2022, which will result in interest savings beginning in July 2023. With that, I would like to open the lines for Q&A.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. To ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind and wish to withdraw your question, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. The first question today comes from Spiro Dounis from Citi. Please go ahead.
Spiro Dounis (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thanks, operator. Morning, team. If we could maybe start with Gulf Coast Express. It sounds like you're moving a little bit closer there to a more formal sales process. Jamie, can you maybe talk a little bit about the timing around that? If you could maybe even see recommencing the dividend growth as soon as this year and not wait till 2024. Lastly, if there's anything else you'd consider maybe less core to you.
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
Spiro, good morning. I think as far as GCX concerned, obviously, we are ready to start formally exploring the sale of that particular interest as evidenced by the fact that we put it in writing as part of our press release. I think that process typically should take you inside three months. I think expectations if a successful outcome was to eventuate, which I think feel a high degree of conviction with, we'd see an announcement in or around that second quarter earnings for us in the beginning of August, which would obviously be ideal. As far as your question on accelerating the potential for the dividend. Yeah, we still obviously have a significant capital program that we need to knock down for the balance of this year.
Obviously, realizing significant proceeds from a GCX sale at a very attractive multiple would make significant inroads from both a balance sheet credit profile standpoint. I think sets you up for achievement of the capital allocation priorities and targets that we've laid out and identified for 2024. It's a long way of saying, yeah, I think the first thing is to moderate the DRIP. That obviously reduces dilution to our equity holders. I think that's the first step. I think 2024 is probably the first time that one could reasonably and conservatively consider doing something on the dividend or otherwise incremental return of capital to shareholders.
Spiro Dounis (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Got it. That's helpful. Thanks for that, Jamie. Second question, just thinking through 2024 CapEx, sounds like activity levels have picked up dramatically since the last update, as evidenced by your guidance increase here. I remember last quarter you sort of talked about this less than $150 million of CapEx for 2024. Is that still, you know, a good number to use here? Or are we seeing pressure higher?
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
I think that's still a very good number to use. I think we have been very consistent in our discussions, whether it's with you or investors, in general, that we will walk the talk. The only thing that you see in the context of this picture, particularly when you look at the investor presentation that we put out on slide five, is if that ramp continues into next year, what investors and you and we should be discussing is, are we FID-ing at the end of next year a new processing facility? If so, where? That is because this trend line, I think what has surprised us, Spiro, is the outperformance is not specific to just one particular producer.
We probably have almost a handful that have brought wells online in areas that have far exceeded type curve expectations. You know, we have a lot of data to look at type curves. You know, we've been in this basin now for 10 years. We really think that we actually understand the nuances of the rock. What's interesting to us, whether it's Callon, whether it's Diamondback, we see it with PR, most recently with Coterra, with, on back on their Resolute acreage, the results were just, were quite surprising, positively surprising. What that tells us is, you know, the basin is just getting gassier, much, much gassier.
This ramp on page five, it is not unreasonable to expect that extrapolation of growth will continue, and you will be, you know, knocking down that remaining balance of $400 million of open space within a very short space of time.
Spiro Dounis (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Understood. That's helpful color. Thanks for the time today, guys.
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
No problem.
Operator (participant)
The next question on the line is from Tristan Richardson from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Tristan Richardson (Managing Director)
Hey, good morning, guys. Just maybe curious on the volume ramp you're talking about, particularly in April. Maybe just see where are you seeing the concentration of that strength? I mean, is this some of the new projects added in June of last year, some of those step-ups in MBCs, the DXL contract? Just maybe kind of curious where you're seeing some of the strength on the volume side.
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
Sure. Good morning, Tristan. Edit, I didn't think you changed your name, but that's okay. I think the long and the short of it is we are seeing it in various various pockets, more on the northern end and certainly on the western end in the context. We've always known the western side of our system is very, very gassy. We're seeing it also as we sort of migrate up into Reeves County, you know, the top end of Reeves County up into Loving County.
I think it is not, it is not a case that we have a little bit of catch up on some of the MBCs, because as we announced back in February, we saw a little bit of softness in the context of volumes versus the MBCs for at least one of our customers. That is, I would say, inconsequential relative to the real driver here. The real driver here is, you know, it is the handful of producers I talked about and their level of activity. You know, what you and I have talked about before is so much of our activity is a march through August. That is pretty much we see the cadence for our, for our customers and I think more generally, particularly post Winter Storm Uri. I think Winter Storm Uri changed producer behavior.
People are very reticent to bring wells on in February, rightfully so. I mean, that was catastrophic. It was a tragic event and one that obviously had significant monetary consequences for everybody, including producers. I think they've learned and said, "Look, the better, the better part of valor is why don't we think about our turn in line forecast, really starting at the beginning of March and ramping forward through the end of, you know, going into September, October." That's the timeframe you think about. November, December, it can be sort of a little bit of potluck because it depends on how people are tracking, I think in large part, particularly for the publics against their guidance. I think just generally, we've always looked at Central Southern Reeves as being solid, not spectacular. We're now seeing some really outsized performance.
We are seeing some different benches, and we are seeing some of the benefits of these different benches. I think that really does move the needle as far as GORs are concerned and overall activity. It does make for Matt's job and Lane who runs ops, you know, their job is challenging of how to balance the system and more importantly, get the compression in the right places, right? Sizing compression and getting it to where it is. This is all within sort of what I'll call the footprint we have today. The commercial guys are actively engaged in New Mexico. That changes the game yet again for us, right?
Because it's an entirely new catchment area for us, underpinned by that contract that starts in April, which is supported by, you know, one of our largest customers and at large MBC. There is significant activity up there that we are able to capitalize on with customers that I think have become very comfortable and are very happy with our overall performance and execution.
Tristan Richardson (Managing Director)
I appreciate it, Jamie. Then maybe just on the tuck-in in Reeves County, just thinking about the 4x multiple, do we grow into that over time, or is that sort of just base EBITDA, what you're seeing today? Maybe also thinking, you know, appreciate the commentary on the high end of the guide, thinking about that maybe splitting between volumes coming in ahead of schedule versus the contributions from the infrastructure system in Reeves.
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
As far as the midstream acquisition, we did the $65 million. We said it's less than a 4x, a 4x acquisition multiple. That's out of the box, right out of the gate. It is a very small it is a smallish produced water gathering and disposal asset. It's with our friends at Permian Resources. We have a tremendous amount of respect for these guys. If nothing else, I think Will and James have done a phenomenal job of growing that business and very creative. We love doing people with creative we love doing business with creative people.
We looked at it and we went, "This is a win-win for both of us." From our standpoint, the actual that system sits on acreage that's already dedicated to us from a gas standpoint, so we actually know the entire footprint. From their vantage point, they, I think they've been very impressed and happy with our overall run times and overall consistent performance. What is important for them as they thought, as we said, "Well, that's just a tip of the iceberg." The real sizzle on this is to create a unique alignment with them and us to accelerate drilling on some of the gassier acreage they have, which is a legacy Centennial Silverback acreage, and give them an economic incentive to do so. That to them is the equivalent almost of a Contribution in Aid of Construction.
It's just one more ingredient that goes into their decision on where they allocate capital for the drill bit. From our vantage point, it allowed us to accelerate activity over and above their base plan. That was really the interesting thing. What that meant was money was, we gave them the $60 million. They are basically being held to account. They've got to actually execute a certain amount of lateral feet. It's done by a particular area, and it gets measured on a high-frequency basis. You'll see in 2024, the upside over and above base plan, which, you know, when you look at your numbers, Tristan, or you look at your peers, you know, their plan is pretty much predicated into your 2024 number already. This is upside.
You look at the 60, we said it's less than 4 times, say on just on the gas side, it's going to be more than $15 million of incremental EBITDA that you'll see. What we like about it is, you know, we've got, as I said, it's one of our more tenured or seasoned contracts. The rates are good. We get to control residue. We get to control, you know, we've got NGLs. The gas value chain to us was the critical component of coming up with that creative arrangement. That's when you look at it, your last piece, which was your last question in the context of how much is outperformance, I would say the overall increase, just because of the water business is in the sort of teens as far as contribution.
The balance is outperformance. Offsetting that puts and takes. Obviously, we said PHP, we had already made adjustments with Apache. You know, we've got those takes and the gives were, meaning the positive contributions, were the outperformance and this sort of acquisition. I feel really proud of the team that look at this point in time with all of the volatility we have, and obviously things don't go quite according to plan, that we are looking at that high end of our of our 860 range as far as EBITDA for this year.
Tristan Richardson (Managing Director)
I appreciate the highlights. Thank you guys very much.
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
No problem. Thanks, Tristan.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Neel Mitra from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Neel Mitra (Senior Analyst)
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Jamie, I wanted to take the other side on the GCX sale. I know you want to get to investment grade status as fast as possible, but I know the rating agencies also look at scale and getting to $1 billion of EBITDA as well as earnings mix. You'd be giving up, let's just say roughly $50 million of high quality take or pay contracts and moving more towards the GMP side, which has more volumetric risk. How do you weigh those issues in when you consider the sale and becoming investment grade with the sale of GCX?
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
Neel, it's a very good question and one we debate, we have debated numerous times. I think the way we look at it is this. Yes, it is $50 million of high quality cash flows. What's interesting on the Midstream Logistics business, take it from what we have actioned in the last 12 months. Our biggest announcements have all been backed by large scale commitments and slash MBCs, right? MBCs. The counterparties that we've been signing MBCs with are of the same quality as underpinned shippers on GCX. In other words, strong investment grade counterparties. So we look at that and say, "Well, what's the difference?" An MBC is an obligation to pay money. An obligation to take or pay and ship on a pipeline is an obligation to pay money if deficient. It's one and the same.
I do agree with you, but I think we've looked at it and said, listen, that yes, it means that Pipeline Transportation would go down by $50 million. Obviously offsetting that, you obviously have the increase with the expansion, the PHP coming up. The MBC contributions, most recently with New Mexico, the two that started in October, we've got more in the hopper, all of MBCs. I think by moving to an MBC, we're moving to a more de-risked GMP business than has typically existed within the footprint of the Permian. I think that to me, sort of can offset the question on cash flow risk.
Trevor Howard (VP of Finance)
Neel, this is Trevor Howard. I'm just gonna jump in. I think one other point that's important is, you know, with our stock right now trading with a double-digit yield, it's a cost of capital discussion at this point. With, you know, using GCX proceeds, which on an unlevered basis could portend or a sale could be, you know, a less than 10% cost of capital, and you're subsidizing that instead of DRIP, is really how we're looking at it at this point.
Frankly, from our vantage point, to the extent that we're able to significantly reduce or turn off the DRIP, when you actually look at it on 2024 numbers, it's accretive to per share financial metrics, which is a little bit unique when you think about selling an asset to pay down debt. Really the offsetter is that you're avoiding a fair amount of dilution that would otherwise take place in the third and fourth quarter dividends.
Neel Mitra (Senior Analyst)
To be fair, there is some capital intensity associated with the GMP business, right? To get that extra business. How do you look at that when you look at adding the incremental EBITDA from GMP versus what you already have with GCX?
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
That's a fair comment. I think that the way to look at it is when we announced the deals in October, the build multiple, you know, the overall capital was very manageable. And it was less than a one-time build for probably one of the contracts and virtually nothing on the other. As we think about the straw into New Mexico, that obviously has with it the capital component. Once we put the straw in, we're able to source additional capacity over and above the MBC obligation that obviously bring without significant incremental capital, that brings obviously the overall multiple down and gets you a return and recovery of capital. I do hear you versus $50 million.
You don't have to put any more capital in. It's money that's sunk, and you just get that on the remaining contract life. I think, you know, as Trevor Howard mentioned, I would say the driver for us is not as much just because we don't control the rating agencies, the investment grade. It's getting to the 3.5x. It's really being able to, in fact, be on the front foot as it relates to the balance of our DRIP through 23, which as, you know, Trevor Howard pointed out, equity is expensive. That DRIP, obviously at every quarter, given the magnitude, that creates significant incremental shares. We've managed it, and we see a way to actually correct that and actually now change, you know, the overall dynamic.
Neel Mitra (Senior Analyst)
Okay, understood. If I could sneak one more in there, could you comment on what the initial build multiple is for the New Mexico contracts to build the pipe from New Mexico down into Texas? I understand that build multiple is going to compress over time as more volumes are able to flow into that pipe. What is the maximum volume that you can flow, I guess, into that 20-inch pipe that you're building across the state when we look at it? What is the build multiple now, and what do you expect it to eventually drive into?
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
The build multiple today, just based on the MBC, is less than 5x. It is the 20-inch can move, yeah, about, you know, 200, 250, that we can move across that pipeline. If you add incremental volume, you would bring that multiple down by half. I think it's a pretty compelling.
Neel Mitra (Senior Analyst)
Perfect.
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
I mean, I don't know too many deals that you can do that's sort of like at a 2.5x multiple if you sell it all out. That should be a pretty good proposition.
Neel Mitra (Senior Analyst)
That's why I asked.
Trevor Howard (VP of Finance)
Yeah, Neel, just one more thing.
Neel Mitra (Senior Analyst)
Sounds good.
Trevor Howard (VP of Finance)
One more thing just in conclusion, kind of combining those last two questions together. I think another thing in how we're thinking about the GCX sale is a free cash flow from our business today is being earmarked towards deleveraging. To the extent that we can subsidize incremental growth projects that are mid-single-digit multiples with, you know, harvesting a double-digit multiple sale, allows us to recycle in an accretive way, capital back into the business, which we think is value accretive to shareholders.
Neel Mitra (Senior Analyst)
Got it. Thank you. Appreciate the comments.
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
Thanks, Neel.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from from Keith Stanley from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Keith Stanley (Managing Director)
Hi. Good morning. First, just curious if you see any potential for other tuck-in type acquisitions with your existing customers like you did with the water system agreement today. Just any general commentary on how many of your customers still own midstream-related assets in your areas?
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
There's probably one or two that. I think they may be of an even smaller size. You got to ask yourself whether it's worth it. I think we're a creative bunch, Keith, as you know, and I think we've got some ideas on doing some things. We're always looking to try to create what we think are great win-win opportunities for customers that obviously give them that creates the right alignment on both sides. I would say, you know, there's not an abundance. Don't expect that there's 15. There's like, you know, one or two that potentially could fit that opportunity set.
Keith Stanley (Managing Director)
Got it. Thanks. Sorry to beat the dead horse here, but one, just clarifying one on the potential GCX sale. You've made it clear the priority is to turn off the DRIP. I guess one alternative you could do is to use proceeds to actually repay debt and get to the leverage target sooner. Do you see that as one option on the table, or do you see achieving the leverage target as more just a function of EBITDA growth into next year? Thanks.
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
You wanna take that?
Trevor Howard (VP of Finance)
Yeah. Sure. Thanks for the question. No, I mean, really, the DRIP right now is being used towards deleveraging. To the extent that, you know, we're successful with the sale of GCX, that will get us very close to achieving our capital allocation priorities. When we get to that point and we actually are ready to present, you know, the results, you know, we're going to also provide an update on the DRIP and what that could look like. The intent is that we're trying to get to our 3.5x as soon as possible. That, I guess that message from us is still intact. I don't necessarily think that you need...
You definitely don't need to do both in order to achieve that 3.5x leverage, you know, in the near to intermediate term.
Keith Stanley (Managing Director)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
As a reminder, if you'd like to ask any further questions, please press star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad now. The next question is from Robert Mosca from Mizuho Securities. Please go ahead.
Robert Mosca (VP of Equity Research)
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Just to follow up on the incentive agreement, are there any specific return requirements within that arrangement? Are the penalties like only tied to activity? I think you mentioned the rate/volume flip metric. Just trying to understand how sticky that referenced 4x multiple is beyond 24, whether your familiarity with the rock is kind of what gives you comfort that those return thresholds are gonna be met if a certain amount of activity is undertaken.
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
Yeah. Robert, I see. If I think I understood the question, the question was how much insight and how confident and comfortable are you in the context of, you know, the overall or the ingredients that go into that incentive arrangement? I had mentioned on my prepared remark, actually on one of the questions, that the dollar per lateral foot. Short answer. Now, let's knock down each component. First, these are two of our most tenured contracts. In other words, we have lived through a lot of drilling activity on these, this particular acreage positions. We know the rock very well. We've got years and years of data, right? We know what is higher GOR, what is lower GOR. The overall contracts themselves are slightly different.
One has a POP % in it, one is more fixed fee. We look at it and we say it starts as of sort of towards the end of this year, because obviously when we closed the deal at the end of March, it's hard to change drilling activity within then current year. The PR guy said, "Listen, by the time we start to basically adjust what we're gonna do on this acreage, it will be fourth quarter before we're starting to think about drilling." Therefore, 2024 is when you see the benefits. The benefits happen, as I said, it's on a regular frequency basis, it's measured every six months.
There is a, you know, you either drill to a certain lateral footage depending upon which area you've got, and if you don't drill, then there is a refund. That includes a, I would say a penalty, which is far in excess of our cost of capital. There's quite a bit of detail into how it all works, but our confidence level is 24 is solid. In the context of that 4x, we should see significant activity through 2025 and through 2026. I think you'll see, you know, it's a nice accelerated runway on that acreage that's got still a lot of, remaining inventory on it. I think it's, as I said, it's a nice win-win arrangement with the folks at PR.
Robert Mosca (VP of Equity Research)
Great. That's helpful. Thanks, Jamie. Maybe switching gears, I guess even with the increase in the trust and volume exit rate, you still have a lot of spare capacity on your system, and I'm wondering if the conversations around offloads are changing at all. I think you've noted the rising permitting GORs, and it just seems like some of your peers might be more comfortable building plants now. Is the expectation that your dedicated volumes are gonna be what fills that spare capacity rather than offloads?
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
I think the first thing, Robert, is offloads aren't a core part of our business. We get very few offloads. For us, offloads may be, we got a plant down for, you know, maintenance, and that's about it. It might be for a couple of days. It may be for three days. It may be for one. You know, who knows? Or it may be an unexpected outage. It's not something we forecast, and it's not something that when we talk to you, that's the... Offloads are never part of the narrative. They are never part of how we think about our business. We've never thought about that in the context, "Oh, look, we'll get all these offloads." That to us would just be gravy, right? Something we just didn't expect.
Manna from heaven, may be a better way to describe it. The way I think we think about the overall basin, as evidenced by, you know, we saw Tiger with long lead times this morning. We saw Western make an announcement that they may need more capacity, more processing capacity. All of those things, I think, point you in the direction that the basin is getting gassier. Yes. Activity remains strong. obviously, it's very different than making a decision than on a purely dry gas basin, such as the Haynesville or Marcellus Utica, where obviously gas prices, start to impact drilling activity.
From our vantage point, we still, in fact, what's interesting to us is we believe the narrative of by getting into New Mexico would open up a significant volume opportunity for us, set for us, that we would be able to capitalize on. Thus far in the now almost three months since we announced it back on February 27th, it has certainly lived up to expectations.
I think we are incredibly excited by all the opportunities that we've got in front of us and that will allow and see us obviously not just sell out the balance of our 400 that you would see against the 1.6 expectation at the end of this year, but also think about the prospect of adding additional capacity going into late next year, you know, and thinking about and making an announcement on a build at that point in time.
Robert Mosca (VP of Equity Research)
All right. Appreciate your time, everyone.
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
We have no further questions, so I'll hand back to Jamie to conclude.
Jamie Welch (President and CEO)
Thank you very much for your, for your time. I know it's everyone's slammed right now just given the announcements on earnings from everybody. We look forward to seeing you at EIC in the next couple of weeks. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect your lines and enjoy the rest of your day.