Executive Summary

Q1 2025 delivered modest top-line growth and sharp profitability improvement vs. Q1 2024: revenue $1.82B (+0.1% YoY), GAAP EPS $0.19 (vs. $(0.02) prior-year), Adjusted EPS $0.28 (vs. $0.12), with consolidated OR improving to 96.3% and Adjusted OR to 94.7% .
Management lowered Q2 2025 Adjusted EPS guidance to $0.30–$0.38 from $0.46–$0.50, citing tariff-driven uncertainty and weaker seasonality; Truckload sequential growth expectations eased, while LTL revenue growth guidance was raised but margin expectations tempered (low 90s OR) .
Key drivers: Truckload rate per mile turned positive YoY for the first time in 10 quarters; cost/mile fell; USX achieved its first quarterly operating profit post-acquisition. LTL shipments grew 24% YoY on network expansion, though start-up and integration costs suppressed margin; March LTL Adjusted OR reached 90.6% with ~30% shipment growth .
Estimates: S&P Global consensus for Q1 2025 and Q2 2025 EPS/revenue was unavailable via our data connector at the time of analysis; comparison to Street estimates cannot be provided. We benchmarked vs. prior company guidance where relevant (see Guidance Changes) .
Potential stock reaction catalysts: reduced Q2 guide and tariff uncertainty vs. improving cost discipline, Truckload rate inflection, and accelerating LTL volumes .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Truckload fundamentals: Revenue per loaded mile rose 1.5% YoY (first YoY increase in 10 quarters); Adjusted OR improved 170 bps to 95.6%; USX achieved first post-acquisition quarterly operating profit . CEO: “Our revenue per mile for the quarter was up year-over-year for the first time since the third quarter of 2022… We are also pleased to see the U.S. Xpress trucking business achieve its first quarterly operating profit post-acquisition” .
- LTL growth: Revenue ex-FSC up 26.7% YoY on 24.2% shipment growth; March run-rate showed 30% shipment growth and 90.6% Adjusted OR as density improved .
- Logistics and Intermodal progress: Logistics revenue +11.8% YoY, gross margin to 18.1%, Adjusted OR improved 160 bps to 95.5% . Intermodal OR improved 360 bps to 102.0% with load count +4.6% YoY .
What Went Wrong
- Tariff/macro headwinds: Management cited “toxic tariffs” and fluid trade policy dampening March seasonality, prompting withdrawal of multi-quarter guidance and a wider, lower Q2 range .
- LTL margin pressure: Despite strong shipments, LTL Adjusted OR deteriorated YoY to 94.2% (vs. 90.0%) due to start-up costs, early-stage operations in new terminals, and lingering costs from DHE integration .
- Sequential normalization from Q4: Consolidated OR/Adjusted OR worsened sequentially from 95.8%/93.7% in Q4 2024 to 96.3%/94.7% in Q1 2025 as Truckload seasonality and early-quarter weather weighed on results .

Financial Results

Overall results vs prior-year, prior-quarter

Metric	Q1 2024 (oldest)	Q4 2024	Q1 2025 (newest)
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$1,822.5	$1,864.3	$1,824.4
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.02)	$0.43	$0.19
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.12	$0.36	$0.28
Operating Ratio (OR)	98.9%	95.8%	96.3%
Adjusted OR	96.8%	93.7%	94.7%

Segment performance (YoY unless noted)

Segment	Revenue ex-FSC ($M)	Adj. Operating Income ($M)	Adjusted OR
Truckload (Q1’24 → Q1’25)	$1,094.1 → $1,048.1	$29.1 → $46.5	97.3% → 95.6%
LTL (Q1’24 → Q1’25)	$241.0 → $305.3	$24.2 → $17.7	90.0% → 94.2%
Logistics (Q1’24 → Q1’25)	$126.7 → $141.6	$3.6 → $6.3	97.1% → 95.5%
Intermodal (Q1’24 → Q1’25)	$88.0 → $91.1	$(4.9) → $(1.8) (GAAP OI)	105.6% → 102.0%
All Other (Q1’24 → Q1’25)	$85.1 → $71.6	$(20.4) → $6.0 (GAAP OI)	N/A

Operating KPI highlights

KPI	Q1 2024	Q1 2025
Truckload – Avg revenue/tractor ($)	$46,927	$47,838
Truckload – Miles per tractor	19,894	20,049
LTL – Shipments/day	18,800	23,349
LTL – Rev xFSC per cwt ($)	16.91	18.48
Logistics – Rev/load (Brokerage) ($)	1,751	1,956
Logistics – Gross margin (%)	16.8%	18.1%
Intermodal – Load count	33,647	35,211
Intermodal – Avg rev/load ($)	2,615	2,587

Non-GAAP adjustments (Q1 2025): Adjusted EPS $0.28 adds back after-tax amortization of intangibles (~$0.12), plus minor legal accruals; adjusted tax rate applied 25.4% .

Cash flow and balance sheet highlights

Free cash flow: $70.0M in Q1 2025 (CFO $109.4M, capex net $(39.4)M) .
Liquidity: ~$1.0B unrestricted cash and available liquidity; Net Debt $2.6B; equity $7.1B as of Mar 31, 2025 .
Dividend: $0.18/share declared Feb 12 (paid Mar 25); subsequent $0.18 declared May 1 (record Jun 9; pay Jun 23) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EPS	Q2 2025	$0.46–$0.50	$0.30–$0.38	Lowered
Truckload – Revenue (seq.)	Q2 2025	Up mid-single-digit %	Up low single-digit %	Lowered
Truckload – Margin (seq.)	Q2 2025	Increasing modestly	Relatively stable	Lowered
LTL – Revenue ex-FSC (YoY)	Q2 2025	+20%–25%	+25%–30%	Raised
LTL – Adjusted OR	Q2 2025	High 80s	Low 90s	Lowered
Logistics – Revenue (seq.)	Q2 2025	Up high-single-digit % YoY (implied)	Down low single-digit % (seq.)	Lowered
Intermodal – Loads/margin	Q2 2025	Loads +low-to-mid-teens YoY; OR high 90s	Loads and margin fairly stable seq.	Lowered/softer
All Other – OI ex amort.	Q2 2025	~$8–$12M	~$8–$12M	Maintained
Gain on sale	Q2 2025	$12–$17M	$18–$23M	Raised
Effective tax rate (Adjusted)	FY 2025	~24.5%–25.5%	~24.5%–25.5%	Maintained
Net cash capex	FY 2025	$575–$625M	$575–$625M	Maintained
Dividend	Ongoing	$0.16 (Q4’24) → $0.18 (Feb’25)	$0.18 declared May 1 (record/pay dates set)	Increased in Feb; maintained thereafter

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3’24, Q4’24)	Current Period (Q1’25)	Trend
Tariffs/trade policy	Late-Q3 disruptions (ports/hurricanes) and balanced market emerging into 2025	“Toxic tariffs” dampened March seasonality; withholding third-quarter guidance; wider Q2 range	Negative near-term; higher uncertainty
Truckload pricing/bid season	Q3: spot premium vs. contract; Q4: legacy OR returned to 80s; rate momentum	Contract renewals low–mid single digits; momentum slowed in March; rate per mile up YoY	Mixed: price up YoY but momentum cooled
LTL expansion/density	Opened 34+ facilities YTD; acquired DHE; integration underway	7 more locations in Q1; March 30% shipment growth; OR 90.6% in March	Positive volumes; near-term margin drag improving
Cost discipline/safety	Q3: cost/mile -1.3% YoY; Q4: expense focus	Cost/mile down third straight quarter; improving safety metrics and claims environment	Improving
Intermodal	OR improved to ~101–102% in Q3/Q4	OR improved to 102.0%; but bid season more competitive; stable sequential guidance	Gradual improvement; cautious outlook
Technology/AI (safety)	N/A	Netradyne AI dashcams across 15,500 trucks to enhance safety	Strategic adoption

Management Commentary

CEO framing on tariffs and strategy: “Toxic tariffs and the fluid trade policy spurred more cautious tone among shippers… We are… disposing of underutilized assets, enhancing… safety performance, and reducing overhead” .
Truckload trajectory: “Revenue per mile… was up year-over-year for the first time since the third quarter of 2022… U.S. Xpress trucking business achieved a quarterly operating profit for the first time since our July 2023 acquisition” .
LTL momentum: “Operating ratio and year-over-year growth in shipment count improved progressively… reaching 30% shipment growth and an Adjusted Operating Ratio of 90.6% for March” .
Guidance posture: “Because of the significant uncertainty… we are providing a wider range than normal for the next quarter’s earnings and are not providing guidance for the third quarter” .

Q&A Highlights

Fleet rightsizing and gains: Management is tightening tractors and trailers to reduce depreciation and improve utilization; equipment gains expected $18–$23M in Q2 as they rightsize without sacrificing flexibility .
LTL density and M&A: Density building weekly with additional locations; M&A to fill gaps (e.g., Northeast) more likely 2026 than 2025; 2025 focus is growing into expanded footprint and margin expansion .
Bid season dynamics: Contract renewals still low–mid single digits but momentum softened in March; weak spot could weigh on realized revenue per mile near-term .
Import risk to demand: Management assumes May weakness from potential West Coast import declines; watching for June rebound tied to policy clarity and seasonal beverages/produce .
Capacity backdrop: Spot truck postings down ~28% YoY in March (external indicator), suggesting supply erosion; market was near balanced pre-tariff uncertainty .
Cost levers and USX parity path: >$180M annualized costs removed at USX; improving safety (CSA crash rating ~20% better since acquisition) and operational efficiencies; still ~5 OR points gap vs. legacy TL to close over time .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus (EPS and revenue) for Q1 2025 and for Q2 2025 was unavailable via our connector at the time of analysis; therefore, we cannot provide a vs-consensus comparison. We instead benchmarked vs. the company’s prior guidance where applicable .
Note: Where estimates are unavailable, investors should focus on management’s explicit bridge and the magnitude/direction of updated guidance.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term caution: Management cut Q2 Adjusted EPS guidance and suspended third-quarter guidance due to tariff-driven uncertainty; watch imports and June seasonality inflection .
Truckload turning the corner: YoY rate per mile positive; cost per mile down; USX profitable—supporting a better margin base into a recovery, albeit with softer sequential expectations for Q2 vs. prior plans .
LTL volume runway strong: Shipments +24% YoY on network expansion; March OR 90.6% indicates leverage potential as density builds; however, near-term adjusted OR guide (low 90s) reflects cost absorption/integration .
Logistics and Intermodal stabilizing: Logistics margins improved on pricing discipline and carrier qualification; Intermodal OR trajectory improving, but bid season remains competitive—guidance indicates stability rather than expansion .
Capital and cash: Solid liquidity (~$1B), positive Q1 FCF ($70M), and maintained $575–$625M 2025 capex plan support ongoing fleet refresh and LTL network investments . Dividend increased to $0.18 in Feb and declared again May 1 .
Trading setup: The lowered Q2 guide and pulled Q3 outlook may pressure near-term sentiment; offsetting positives include TL rate inflection, improving cost structure, and accelerating LTL volumes that can re-rate margins as density builds .

Notes and sources: All quarterly financials, segment metrics, non-GAAP reconciliations, guidance, and management commentary are from KNX Q1 2025 8‑K and exhibits (press release/presentation) and the Q1 2025 earnings call transcript . Prior-quarter comparatives and earlier guidance from Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 8‑Ks . Additional Q2 dividend press release dated May 1, 2025 .

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary