Executive Summary

Q4 2024: Revenue $1.86B, GAAP EPS $0.43, Adjusted EPS $0.36; consolidated operating ratio (OR) 95.8% and Adjusted OR 93.7%—both improved >300 bps YoY, with Truckload Adjusted OR down 170 bps YoY and 340 bps sequentially; Intermodal OR improved 320 bps YoY, while LTL growth carried near‑term margin drag from network expansion and the DHE integration .
Guidance: Company introduced Q2 2025 Adjusted EPS guidance of $0.46–$0.50 and maintained Q1 2025 at $0.29–$0.33; LTL expected to move Adjusted OR into the high‑80s in Q2 as shipment growth and integration benefits flow through; 2025 net cash capex guided to $575–$625M (vs $525–$575M for 2024), effective tax rate on adjusted results 24.5–25.5% .
Management tone: Expect “gradual recovery” in 2025 bridging to a “more constructive 2026”; diversified model allowed Truckload/Logistics improvements to offset LTL integration costs; bid season already showing positive rate traction; Intermodal targeted to reach profitability in 2025 .
Catalyst watch: Q2 2025 step‑up in EPS, LTL Adjusted OR moving to high‑80s, Intermodal breakeven→profitability trajectory, USX cost and rate progress; dividend raised to $0.18 in Feb 2025 supports capital return narrative .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Truckload margin recovery and discipline: Adjusted OR improved to 92.2% (−170 bps YoY, −340 bps sequential); legacy Truckload returned to the 80s OR for the first time in seven quarters; miles per tractor improved; cost per mile down 2.2% YoY on adjusted basis; bid season showing mid‑single‑digit rate progress .
Logistics resiliency: Gross margin held at 17.3% in Q4; Adjusted OR 93.7% with revenue per load +12.3% YoY; sequential load count +7.2% and adjusted OR +80 bps vs Q3 .
Intermodal improvement: Operating ratio improved to 101.5% (−320 bps YoY); load count +10.2% YoY; management expects profitability in 2025 as density and customer diversification improve .

Management quote: “The fourth quarter showed the benefits of our diversified business model, as improvement in our truckload segment offset cost headwinds from the significant expansion in our LTL segment.” .

What Went Wrong

LTL margin drag from rapid expansion and DHE integration: Despite revenue ex‑fuel +20.2% YoY and shipments/day +13.3%, Adjusted Operating Income fell 54.9% YoY; Adjusted OR rose to 94.5% (up 900 bps YoY) due to start‑up, staffing, facility, and integration costs .
Consolidated revenue down and interest/gain headwinds: Total revenue −3.5% YoY; net interest expense +$6.5M YoY; gain on sale −$5.4M YoY; though OR and adjusted OR improved markedly .
USX still a work‑in‑progress: Sequential OR improvement lagged legacy businesses; insurance reserve developments impacted USX OR ~250 bps; structural equipment lease costs and rate parity still being addressed, with larger improvements tied to market tailwinds in 2025 .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results vs Prior Periods and Guidance

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)	$1,931.9	$1,876.7	$1,864.3
GAAP EPS ($)	$(0.07)	$0.19	$0.43
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.09	$0.34	$0.36
Operating Income ($USD Millions)	$18.3	$81.4	$78.0
Operating Ratio (%)	99.1%	95.7%	95.8%
Adjusted Operating Income ($USD Millions)	$46.8	$101.7	$106.1
Adjusted Operating Ratio (%)	97.2%	93.9%	93.7%

Note: Q4 2024 Adjusted EPS was at the high end of prior Q3 guidance ($0.32–$0.36). Bold indicates notable outcome: Adjusted EPS $0.36 delivered at high end of prior guidance .

Segment Performance (Revenue ex‑Fuel/Intersegment, Adj Op Income, Adjusted OR)

Segment Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Truckload Revenue ex‑FSC ($USD Millions)	$1,155.7	$1,107.5	$1,104.3
Truckload Adjusted Op Income ($USD Millions)	$69.9	$48.5	$86.0
Truckload Adjusted OR (%)	93.9%	95.6%	92.2%
LTL Revenue ex‑FSC ($USD Millions)	$232.1	$280.2	$278.9
LTL Adjusted Op Income ($USD Millions)	$33.7	$29.1	$15.2
LTL Adjusted OR (%)	85.5%	89.6%	94.5%
Logistics Revenue ex‑Intersegment ($USD Millions)	$164.5	$143.6	$168.0
Logistics Adjusted Op Income ($USD Millions)	$11.3	$7.8	$10.6
Logistics Adjusted OR (%)	93.1%	94.5%	93.7%
Intermodal Revenue ex‑Intersegment ($USD Millions)	$94.4	$102.7	$99.0
Intermodal Operating Ratio (%)	104.7%	101.4%	101.5%

Selected KPIs

KPI	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Truckload Miles per Tractor	20,222	20,469	20,702
Truckload Rev/Loaded Mile xFSC YoY	− [ ]	~0%	−0.7%
LTL Shipments per Day	19,300	21,907	21,870
LTL Rev per Hundredweight xFSC ($)	$16.19	$17.37	$17.75
Logistics Gross Margin (%)	− [ ]	17.8%	17.3%
Intermodal Load Count	35,041	39,968	38,607
Intermodal Avg Rev/Load ($)	$2,695	$2,569	$2,565

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EPS	Q4 2024	$0.32–$0.36	Actual delivered $0.36	Achieved at high end
Adjusted EPS	Q1 2025	$0.29–$0.33	$0.29–$0.33	Maintained
Adjusted EPS	Q2 2025	—	$0.46–$0.50	Introduced (new)
LTL Adjusted OR	Q4 2024/Q1 2025	High‑80s as expansion absorbs costs	Modestly improves in Q1; moves into high‑80s in Q2	Timing clarified (Q2 high‑80s)
Intermodal OR	Q4 2024/Q1 2025	~Breakeven	~Breakeven in Q1; high‑90s in Q2	Slight improvement path
Net Cash Capex ($M)	FY 2024	$525–$575	—	—
Net Cash Capex ($M)	FY 2025	—	$575–$625	Raised vs 2024
Effective Tax Rate (Adjusted)	Q4 2024	26–27%	—	—
Effective Tax Rate (Adjusted)	FY 2025	26–28% (Q3 presentation)	24.5–25.5%	Lowered
Equipment Gains ($M)	Per Quarter	$5–$10 (Q4/Q1)	$10–$15 (Q1), $12–$17 (Q2)	Raised
Net Interest Expense	Q4 2024/Q1 2025	Down modestly seq (Q4/Q1)	Down modestly (Q1), stable into Q2	Slightly revised cadence
Dividend	Q4 2024	$0.16 declared Nov 6, paid Dec 23	$0.18 declared Feb 13, 2025	Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2/Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Truckload cycle and bid season	Stabilization, early signs of balance; expected seasonal OR improvement; spot > contract; rate asks building into mid‑single digits	Bid awards trending positive; normal seasonality Q1→Q2; aiming to convert rate to margin with cost discipline	Improving rate traction; margin leverage building
LTL expansion & integration	38 new terminals planned; DHE added Southwest; start‑up costs headwind; targeting mid‑/high‑80s OR as network scales	51 locations added in 2024; DHE integration completed; near‑term drag but OR targeted high‑80s in Q2	Integration done; scaling to margin
Intermodal path to profitability	First YoY revenue increase; OR improving; breakeven targeted Q4/Q1	OR +320 bps YoY; breakeven Q1; high‑90s OR Q2; profitability in 2025	Progressing toward profit
Logistics pricing & power‑only	Disciplined pricing; overflow to logistics in upcycle; gross margin stable	Gross margin 17.3%; sequential OR +80 bps; revenue per load +12.3% YoY; leveraging power‑only	Stable profitability
USX integration & margin	Cost synergies; network overhaul; rate parity pending; dedicated/logistics on parity; OTR the main opportunity	Further cost progress; insurance reserve headwind ~250 bps; 2025 profitability expected; rate lift in bid cycle	On track; requires market tailwind
Macro/weather disruptions	Hurricanes/port strike disrupted volumes late Q3; cargo security concerns shifting demand to assets	Early Jan weather noise; management cautious on reading trend; still setting achievable guidance	Cautious but constructive

Management Commentary

Strategic focus: “We anticipate 2025 will be a year of gradual recovery in market conditions that bridges to a more constructive 2026.” .
LTL integration: “This means our three brands in LTL are on one system, operating through one network… while we leverage local expertise… We believe these investments position us for growth and further synergy opportunities… and a compelling runway for margin improvement in the long run.” .
Cost discipline and margin: “We’ve made a lot of progress… utilization better year‑over‑year six quarters in a row… overhead costs substantially down… that’s going to help us expand margin quicker into ’25.” .
Intermodal trajectory: “We expect ongoing progress… should make this business profitable in 2025.” .

Q&A Highlights

Q2 vs Q1 earnings step‑up: Drivers are normal TL seasonality, favorable bid‑season rate implementation, LTL volume density after DHE integration, Intermodal moving positive in Q2; Logistics stable .
Truckload bid season: Early awards trending positive; mid‑single‑digit rate asks broadly, potentially higher at certain brands; margin improvement to be a “grind” with cost discipline and productivity gains .
Margin sustainability: Legacy Truckload returned to the 80s OR; management targets upper‑70s in tight markets, mid‑80s normalized, upper‑80s in difficult markets over cycle .
LTL pricing vs volume: Maintain disciplined pricing; use 3PL/API to seed new terminals; long‑haul coverage with California increases density and margin potential; no plan to discount to fill capacity .
USX progress: OR improved ~700 bps since acquisition in OTR; >$180M annualized cost synergies; insurance reserve developments unique to Q4; 2025 profitability expected with seated truck count, dedicated growth, safety improvements, and equipment economics .
Cash flow and capital allocation: 2025 free cash flow expected to improve with earnings; capex largely maintenance; focus on deleveraging with opportunistic buybacks; LTL footprint additions more selective .

Estimates Context

Results vs Wall Street consensus: S&P Global Capital IQ EPS and revenue consensus data were unavailable at time of analysis due to data access limits. Values retrieved from S&P Global were not accessible for this report; therefore, an explicit beat/miss vs consensus cannot be determined at this time. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Where applicable, company guidance comparisons were used (e.g., Q4 2024 Adjusted EPS delivered at high end of prior company guidance) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Truckload margin recovery is underway; disciplined pricing, productivity gains, and cost control set up 2025 leverage—watch bid season rate realization and legacy brands sustaining OR in the 80s through H2’25 .
LTL network scale is now in place (51 locations added; DHE integrated); near‑term margin drag is giving way to shipment growth and density—targeting high‑80s Adjusted OR in Q2’25; this is a key multi‑quarter rerating lever .
Intermodal is closing the gap; breakeven in Q1, high‑90s OR in Q2, with profitability targeted in 2025—additional density and customer diversification should support sustained profitability .
Q2 2025 EPS step‑up is a near‑term catalyst; maintaining Q1 guidance while introducing Q2 implies confidence in sequential improvement without relying on a sharp macro inflection .
USX remains an upside call option on a cycle turn—cost work largely done; rate parity progress accelerates with market tailwinds; expect 2025 profitability and narrowing OR gap to legacy businesses .
Capital deployment balanced: 2025 net cash capex up modestly ($575–$625M) to support replacement and terminals; dividend raised to $0.18 in Feb 2025 underscores commitment to returns while deleveraging remains a priority .
Narrative for stock reaction: Positive—guidance visibility, Truckload margin traction, and LTL integration completion; watchpoints—LTL margin cadence, USX insurance/cost normalization, and sustainability of truckload demand beyond weather‑affected weeks .

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary