Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

KS

Kodiak Sciences Inc. (KOD)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 loss per share was $0.84, a modest beat versus S&P Global consensus of $0.864 (beat by ~$0.02), driven by lower operating expenses and sharply reduced non‑cash stock‑based compensation in R&D versus prior year * .
  • Cash and equivalents ended Q4 at $168.1M; management reiterated cash runway “into 2026,” aligning with prior-quarter commentary and sustaining clinical execution visibility .
  • Development timelines were clarified: tarcocimab GLOW2 topline in 1Q 2026 and DAYBREAK topline in 2Q 2026; DAYBREAK also explores differentiated efficacy for KSI‑501 versus aflibercept .
  • Strategic narrative (“Kodiak 2.0”) centers on immediacy plus durability across ABC® platform assets and expansion into macular edema due to inflammation (KSI‑101), with VETi AI/LiDAR device envisioned to complement medicines and trials .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Clear clinical execution: GLOW2 enrollment completed; DAYBREAK nearing completion, with defined topline data windows (1Q/2Q 2026), improving visibility for a 2026 BLA path across wet AMD, RVO, and DR .
  • Expense discipline: Q4 R&D fell to $31.8M (from $46.6M YoY) with R&D SBC reduced to $0.2M (from $11.9M YoY); G&A trimmed to $14.4M with lower SBC ($8.4M vs $10.9M YoY), narrowing net loss YoY .
  • Strategic positioning: CEO emphasized the unmet need for both immediacy and durability and framed tarcocimab/KSI‑501 as contenders built on the ABC® platform; “Kodiak 2.0” highlights dual track of efficacy and durability .

What Went Wrong

  • No revenues; biotech burn persisted with Q4 net loss of $44.1M and loss from operations of $46.2M; cash declined QoQ to $168.1M as programs advanced .
  • Limited external validation in Q4: the quarter was primarily operational/clinical rather than data‑disclosure heavy, leaving efficacy differentiation for KSI‑501 and DAYBREAK non‑inferiority to be proven in future readouts .
  • Absence of an earnings call transcript limited color on timelines, regulators, and trial operational risks; market communication relied on the press release .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)n/a n/a n/a
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$45.12 $43.95 $44.11
EPS ($USD)-$0.86 -$0.84 -$0.84
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$47.98 $46.63 $46.18
R&D Expenses ($USD Millions)$32.51 $31.88 $31.77
G&A Expenses ($USD Millions)$15.47 $14.75 $14.41
Cash and Equivalents ($USD Millions)$219.23 $197.86 $168.07

Notes: Revenues not presented in company statements of operations; Kodiak is pre‑commercial .

Non‑GAAP/Stock‑based compensation details

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
R&D SBC ($USD Millions)$8.9 $6.3 $0.2
G&A SBC ($USD Millions)$9.4 $8.5 $8.4

EPS vs Estimates (S&P Global)

MetricConsensus (Q4 2024)Actual (Q4 2024)Beat/Miss# of Estimates
EPS ($USD)-0.864*-0.84 Beat by ~$0.025*
Revenue ($USD Millions)0.0*n/a n/a2*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q3 2024)Current Guidance (Q4 2024)Change
Cash runwayCompany operations“Into 2026” “Into 2026” Maintained
Tarcocimab GLOW2 toplineDR Phase 3Complete enrollment 1H25 objective Enrollment completed; topline 1Q 2026 Clarified timeline; progress
DAYBREAK topline (tarcocimab/KSI‑501)Wet AMD Phase 3Complete enrollment 1H25 objective Expect topline 2Q 2026 Clarified timeline
KSI‑101 pivotal initiation (PEAK/PINNACLE in MESI)Inflammation/MESI“Hope to select doses and activate pivots in Q2 2025” Expect to initiate pivotal study in 2Q 2025 Maintained/confirmed plan
Regulatory designations (KSI‑101)Pediatric/Orphan/Fast TrackSubmitted requests (rare pediatric, orphan, fast track) Plan to highlight “FDA Orphan Drug designation received” in June update (forward‑looking) Advanced (anticipated)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript located; company scheduled call per MarketBeat but no transcript available via standard sources .

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
ABC® platform: immediacy + durabilityEnhanced formulations for tarcocimab/KSI‑501; dual/durable design; human ocular half‑life for tarcocimab (~20 days) presented at R&D Day Reaffirmed “Kodiak 2.0” focus; two strong contenders tarcocimab/KSI‑501 Consistent; reinforced
Tarcocimab in DR (GLOW2)Ongoing enrollment; mirrors successful GLOW1; treat‑to‑dryness approach Enrollment completed; topline 1Q 2026 Execution progress
DAYBREAK in wet AMD (tarcocimab & KSI‑501)Active enrollment; non‑inferiority vs aflibercept; individualized dosing; explore bispecific efficacy Expect topline 2Q 2026; explore differentiated efficacy for KSI‑501 Execution progress; clarity
KSI‑101 (MESI/DME)APEX activated; plan for PEAK/PINNACLE; dose selection Q2 2025 Plan pivotal initiation in 2Q 2025; MESI cornerstone potential Advancing to pivots
VETi AI/LiDAR deviceLimited or no mention in Q2/Q3Detailed overview; goal to commercialize with medicines; AI/ML apps and new trial endpoints New/expanded program narrative

Management Commentary

  • “The core unmet need remains unfulfilled – to control the disease with both (1) immediacy and (2) durability… Definitive improvement in both… is the promise and potential of Kodiak 2.0.” — Victor Perlroth, CEO .
  • “GLOW2 has completed enrollment… topline data in 1Q 2026… DAYBREAK… topline data in 2Q 2026… we remain well on track towards our goal of a single BLA filing in 2026 in… wet AMD, retinal vein occlusion and diabetic retinopathy.” .
  • “With KSI‑101… more than 100,000 patients [US]… today these patients have no approved therapy other than steroids… potential to be disease‑modifying.” .
  • On VETi: “An autonomous AI‑ and machine‑learning‑enabled headset… goal is to commercialize VETi together with Kodiak’s emerging portfolio of retinal medicines… potential to disrupt future ophthalmology clinical trials by enabling new trial endpoints.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available from standard sources; MarketBeat listed a scheduled call, but no transcript or detailed Q&A content was accessible for review .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2024 EPS of -$0.84 beat S&P Global consensus of -$0.864 (beat ~$0.02); revenue consensus was $0 with no reported revenue line item in filings *.
  • With operating discipline (lower R&D and G&A, reduced SBC) and cash runway reiterated into 2026, near‑term estimate revisions are likely modest; more material changes should follow pivotal progress and any interim data disclosures *.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution de‑risking: GLOW2 enrollment completion and defined topline windows for GLOW2/DAYBREAK (1Q/2Q 2026) increase visibility toward the 2026 multi‑indication BLA plan .
  • Expense control supports EPS: Q4 EPS beat driven by narrowed operating loss and sharply lower R&D SBC versus prior year; continued cost discipline is a bridge to catalysts *.
  • Dual thesis in wet AMD: tarcocimab seeks durability with individualized dosing; KSI‑501 targets differentiated efficacy via dual IL‑6/VEGF inhibition — both in DAYBREAK against aflibercept .
  • New market wedge: KSI‑101 addresses macular edema secondary to inflammation where no approved intravitreal biologic exists; pivotal initiation targeted for 2Q 2025 .
  • Platform and device optionality: ABC/ABCD programs (glaucoma, GA) and VETi AI/LiDAR device may create data/endpoint advantages and future commercial synergies .
  • Cash runway into 2026 provides time to reach pivotal readouts; investors should monitor burn trajectory and any financing windows tied to major data events .
  • Near‑term catalysts: June 2025 Investor R&D update (KSI‑101 multiple‑dose data, regulatory updates), and progress updates on DAYBREAK enrollment status .