Kosmos Energy - Earnings Call - Q1 2020

Transcript

Speaker 0

Greetings, and welcome to the Cosmos Energy First Quarter twenty twenty Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jamie Buckland, VP of Investor Relations.

Thank you. Please begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. This morning, we issued our first quarter earnings release. This release and the slide presentation to accompany today's call are available on the Investors page of our website. Joining me on the call today to go through that material are Andy Ingalls, Chairman and CEO and Neil Shah, CFO. During today's presentation, we will make forward looking statements that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations.

Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to factors we note in this presentation and in our U. K. And SEC filings. Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website.

At this time, I will turn the call over to Andy.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jamie, and good morning and afternoon to everyone. As Jamie said, I'm joined on today's call by Neil, who officially steps into the role of CFO today. Given Neil's deep experience in treasury, I could not have a better person by my side. I'd also like to thank Tom for his long standing contribution to Kosmos as CFO. I'll start today's presentation with the highlights for the quarter and cover some of the key items which impacted the numbers in 1Q.

Then I'll discuss our response to COVID-nineteen, the steps we've taken to protect the business in 2020, our differentiated portfolio and end on the work we're doing to position the business for the future. Turning to Slide two. Entitlement production of 66,300 barrels of oil a day equivalent in the first quarter was at the upper end of our expected range, driven by strong production in Ghana and the Gulf Of Mexico. Sales volumes were 43,700 barrels oil a day equivalent impacted by cargo timing, which resulted in Kosmos being in a material underlift position of 1,700,000 barrels oil equivalent at the end of the quarter. Overall costs in the quarter were largely in line or below our original guidance.

In response to the market volatility, we are lowering our total 2020 costs by around 30% or $250,000,000 However, those savings do not flow through into our 1Q results. OpEx, DD and A and G and A were in line with our original guidance for the quarter and all three are expected to reduce over the year as our cost cutting initiatives take effect. Exploration expense was slightly below expectations and is expected to significantly decrease as we pause our 2020 exploration activity. We've lowered our base business CapEx program by 40% this year, but most of that is back end loaded as we are as we reduce our ongoing activity set. There were several exceptional items, which skewed the first quarter numbers, which I wanted to give some color on.

We took our non cash impairment charge as a result of current oil prices, which largely relates to two fields in the Gulf Of Mexico. And we also had a restructuring charge in 1Q as a result of the 25% reduction in head counts in March. Together, these charges total approximately 170,000,000 Partly offsetting that negative adjustment was a positive market to market gain on our hedges during the quarter. We also had a $72,000,000 noncash deferred tax expense related to valuation allowances against our U. S.

Deferred tax assets and the market to market gains on our hedging portfolio. So in summary, a strong quarter operationally, ending with material underlift position and incorporating several exceptional noncash items. Turning to Slide three. I now want to focus on the coronavirus pandemic and the decisive actions the company is taking in response. Created unprecedented disruption across the world, which has resulted in historically low and volatile prices.

During this challenging period, the health and safety of our employees and contractors continues to be our primary concern, while ensuring the strength of our balance sheet is maintained. To date, none of our employees or production facilities have been directly affected and we continue to monitor the situation on a daily basis. Despite the mitigation measures that have been imposed in large parts of the world, our employees remain committed to running the business safely and efficiently with the utmost professionalism in anticipation of the recovery ahead. I'll talk in more detail about individual assets on the following slide, but our overall portfolio remains advantaged, characterized by conventional low cost, low decline assets that are well suited to withstand the current lower price environment. As a result, 2020 production guidance remains within our previous guidance range.

Early in the year, when faced with changing market conditions, we took decisive action to maintain the balance sheet and protect cash flow through cutting costs by around 30%, dollars $250,000,000 in total and by restructuring our hedging program. During the quarter, in accordance with our normal banking requirements and against a challenging backdrop, we successfully completed the redetermination of the reserve based lending facility. We have no near term debt maturities with the first RBL amortization payment not until the first half of twenty twenty two. With the liquidity available from our RBL, revolving credit facility and cash on hand, we are well positioned to withstand the current market volatility. Lastly, we continue to position Kosmos for the future.

It remains our intention to deliver self funded gas business in Mauritania and Senegal, and we continue to make progress towards that goal. We also have a portfolio of high quality prospects that we are preparing for 2021, both low cost, low breakeven infrastructure led prospects as well as high quality basin opening targets that we anticipate will be largely carried. Turning to Slide four. Our assets have performed well so far this year as we continue to focus on safe and reliable operations. First quarter entitlement production was slightly ahead of forecast.

For the full year, we still expect production to be within our previous guidance range despite the impacts of COVID-nineteen, lower prices and a significant reduction in capital expenditure. Prior guidance of 14.5 net cargoes in Ghana and Equatorial Guinea remains unchanged, although due to the timing of listings, we only had sales of 1.5 cargoes in 1Q. As discussed on the opening slide, this impacted first quarter revenue and profit and resulted in a 1Q underlift of 1,700,000 barrels. In Ghana, the Jubilee and 10 fields are currently unaffected by COVID-nineteen and we have been encouraged by the operator's swift actions to protect our crew and facilities. These include amended crew scheduling, strict quarantine measures and testing for all workers going offshore.

Production at Jubilee in 10 was slightly ahead of expectations in the quarter with net production of around 26,000 barrels per day, which includes the impact of the planned downtime at Jubilee for the gas handling upgrade. Following the successful completion of this work in February, we've seen consistent production over 90,000 barrels per day. The operator has also recently successfully increased water injection capacity from two pumps to around 180,000 barrels per day, which provides the necessary pressure support for the reservoir while providing some redundancy with the third pump as needed. In addition, we've seen a consistent gas off take in the range of 90,000,000 to 100,000,000 standard cubic feet per day at Jubilee, which should help maintain higher oil production in the future. On 10, the field is currently producing over 50,000 barrels per day, slightly ahead of the operator's guidance.

The Ntomio-nine well has been drilled successfully and completion operations are now underway with the well scheduled to come online later this quarter. Full year net production for Ghana remains in the range 27,000 to 29,000 barrels per day, which equates to prior guidance of 10 cargoes for the year. In Exterore Guinea, first quarter production was around 12,000 barrels per day, which is in line with our expectations. Operations at Sabre and Akuma are currently unaffected by COVID-nineteen and the operators put in place strict operating procedures in line with those mentioned in Ghana. That said, we are aware of the situation of the Exxon facility in Equatorial Guinea and the Sabra Kume operator has responded accordingly.

There was a minor mechanical offloading issue late in the first quarter that affected one of the cargoes, which is supposed to be loaded in late March. The issue was resolved within forty eight hours and the listing was completed in early April, which was up in half a cargo moving from the first quarter to the second quarter. Our full year production for EG remains unchanged at 11,000 to 13,000 barrels per day, which equates to prior guidance of 4.5 cargoes for the year. In the Gulf Of Mexico, production in the first quarter was 28,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day at the top end of our guidance. We have seen no COVID-nineteen cases so far on the production facilities for our fields.

As you're all aware, so far this year, we've seen an elevated level of price volatility, which is causing a number of GON producers to evaluate shutting in fields. Given our advantaged assets and low cost model, around 75% of our Gulf Of Mexico production has a positive operating margin at $10 per barrel HLS. Due to the expectation of lower realized prices in May, the operator of the Delta House host platform, which processes about half of our GOM production, has decided to shut in their operated wells and accelerate planned maintenance. This includes Kosmos' interest in Marmalade and Nearly Headless Nick. It also caused us to shut in the odd job field, even though this field remains profitable at $10 per barrel HLS.

We expect the Delta House jetting to last the month of May. However, the timing will depend on future market conditions. As a result of the May shut ins, we expect 2Q net production in the Gulf Of Mexico to be around 7,000 barrels oil equivalent per day lower. Fortunately, our Gulf Of Mexico production is well set up for shut ins and restart activity given the natural aquifer drive. Shutting in production pressurizes the reservoir.

When the wells are opened up, it's common to see production as is often the case after hurricane shut ins. Elsewhere in the GOM drilling the Tornado Waterford well continues with the completion expected late in the year. Assuming the second quarter shut ins last through May, full year production guidance for Gulf Of Mexico is now expected to be the bottom end of our 24,000 to 28,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day guidance range. Turning to Slide five. I've talked about the importance of having a portfolio that is able to withstand volatile commodity prices.

On this side, I'd like to focus on the specific characteristics that make the Kosmos portfolio resilient in a lower price environment. First, conventional deepwater assets typically have low decline rates and low maintenance CapEx to keep production flat. Over the last seven years, Kosmos has had over 100% reserve replacement ratio across the portfolio, demonstrating the quality of the underlying reservoirs. 2020 production is expected to be broadly in line with 2019 with minimal decline in 2021, all with relatively modest maintenance CapEx. Second, the assets have low cost and therefore low breakevens.

The top right chart on this slide from our SEG shows the half cycle breakeven costs for the most well known shale basins versus the deepwater Gulf Of Mexico and the Kosmos portfolio. The average half cycle breakeven for the shale basins is around $48 WTI compared to $25 for the deepwater GOM. Modeling Kosmos' infill wells in Ghana, EG and the GOM using the same methodology, we get a comparative half cycle breakeven of less than $25 per barrel WTI. The low Kosmos breakevens are largely due to well productivity, existing infrastructure and low incremental development costs. Third, with a diverse production base, we have exposure to advantaged pricing with our Ghana and EG production priced off Brent and our Gone barrels priced off HLS.

The structural advantage of Brent, which has traded at an average premium of $6 per barrel to WTI over the last three years is its access to global markets. In the GOM HLS has traded at a $4 per barrel premium to WTI on average over the last three years due to proximity to Gulf Coast refineries and not having the same infrastructure constraints as many onshore U. S. Producers. There has been increased volatility in pricing here in 2Q, but on average HLS continues to trade at a healthy premium to WTI.

We believe that these structural pricing advantages are unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. And finally, while ESG is temporarily overshadowed by the oil price, we still believe it is a fundamental importance for companies to have a portfolio, which is both low cost and low carbon. We talked about this at our 4Q results in February and believe those companies that are best suited for the energy transition will outperform over time. Moving now to Slide six, the balance sheet. Shortly after the COVID-nineteen pandemic was announced, Kosmos took decisive actions to protect the business.

The financial actions can be split into two categories, lowering our cash flow breakeven and maintaining liquidity. This slide focuses on cash flow. We took quick steps to reduce costs and ultimately protect the company's cash flow for the year. As you can see from the chart on the right, we have reduced costs that is base business CapEx, OpEx and G and A by over 30% for the year or approximately $250,000,000 We also took the difficult decision to suspend the dividend, a total cash saving around $57,000,000 in 2020. Combined, these changes have reduced our cash breakeven to the low 30s, including our hedges excluding our hedges and working capital.

We believe it is a sustainable cost structure to cover all of our cash costs and maintain production. We do expect 2Q cash to be relatively weaker given the dramatic slowdown in activity across our portfolio and the resulting reduction in working capital. We've also restructured our hedging portfolio to remove around 80% of price exposure across our three production hubs for the remainder of the year, that is May to December. Given our current hedges were fully valued, we converted them into fixed price swaps, which provided downside protection for the majority of our production all the way down to zero. At $25 Brent and $20 WTI 2Q forward, our hedges would generate over $200,000,000 proceeds this year.

A $5 move in Brent results in only a $15,000,000 change to free cash flow. Turning to Slide seven, which focuses on liquidity. As we announced in early April, as part of our normal banking requirements, successfully completed the redetermination of the reserve based lending facility and have a borrowing capacity of around $1,500,000,000 with $100,000,000 currently undrawn. We have no near term maturities, and the first RBL amortization payment is not until March 2022. Our total liquidity at the beginning of the quarter was around $580,000,000 post the RBL redetermination.

Turning to Slide eight, which gives an update on Mauritania and Senegal. Phase one of the Tortue project is now around the third complete. And as previously communicated, the LNG offtake SPA was signed in the first quarter, allowing Kosmos to book around 100,000,000 barrels of 1P reserves. Due to COVID-nineteen, operations in Mauritania and Senegal have been impacted by mitigation measures, including border closures, travel bans and social distancing restrictions. As a result, the concrete breakwater installation will now miss the 2020 summer weather window with the work expected to take place during the same period in 2021.

The Phase one project timeline has therefore been delayed by approximately twelve months with first gas now expected in the first half of twenty twenty three. This delay has resulted in a significant reduction activity and budgeted spend in 2020. The BP development carry is now expected to last through 2020 with remaining CapEx spread over 2021, 2022 and 2023. On the sell down, our objective remains to deliver self funded gas business in Mauritania and Senegal, and we've been able to make progress with several interested parties despite the challenging working conditions we find ourselves in. The process remains ongoing and we're currently progressing remote management presentations supported by virtual data rooms.

Turning to Slide nine, the future. It's important during these challenging times not to lose sight of the future When global energy demand returns to more normalized levels, Kosmos will be ready. We have a deep hopper of high quality opportunities spread across our ILX and basin opening portfolios, and we continue to progress these through 2020 to be ready to drill in 2021. For our ILX portfolio, we maintain the option to drill two to three wells from the prospects listed on the slide. As a reminder, these wells have low costs and attractive economics, and we can be quick to react when market conditions improve.

Our basin opening portfolio, we have several attractive opportunities across some of the most prolific basins in the world. As we prepare to drill these opportunities in 2021, we're working to finalize this year the partnerships and working interest to allow us to drill these opportunities on a carried basis. We have completed that process in Sao Tome with Shell and plan to advance Suriname and Namibia this summer. That concludes today's presentation. So to summarize, we've taken quick decisive actions to protect our people and our assets.

We remain focused on cash flow and liquidity and are taking the necessary steps to maintain our balance sheet in anticipation oil price may continue to be volatile. And finally, we continue to progress the business to be ready when the sector does start to recover. Thank you. And I'd now like to turn the call over to the operator to open the session for questions.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 0

Our first questions come from the line of David Round of BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 4

Hi, Andy. Thanks for the presentation. The useful chart on decline rates and maintenance CapEx, so could you just elaborate as to the type of activity this would envisage for Ghana in 2021? And given the lower CapEx world we're now living how are you thinking about the medium term production profile from both Jubilee and TEN in Ghana? And second one, it's just a quick admin one actually.

There was a stoppage listing requirement announced a few weeks back. Are you still considering steps to move away from the $1 cutoff? Or are you comfortable where you stand at the moment?

Speaker 2

All right. Thanks, David. Let me I'll talk about the portfolio first and then just come back to the admin question. Yes, I think the chart on Slide five, I think demonstrates, I think, an important characteristic of our portfolio. In Jubilee 10 world class reservoirs, as I said in my remarks, seven years, 100% reserve replacement.

We actually have significant well stock in Jubilee. And the operators made a lot of progress in the first quarter to optimize the production delivery from that well stock. And as you heard me describe in the past, it's all about ensuring that we're getting the right water injection. And an important step in the first quarter was to enable us to get 180,000 barrels of water a day away from just two pumps. So we now have a third pump on standby, which means that we have greater reliability.

And then we're now working very closely with the Ghana government to ensure that we're getting the gas offtake. And again, as I said in my remarks, we're getting 90,000,000 to 100,000,000 standard cubic feet a day away, which again is helping the performance. So ultimately, that requires a limited number of additional wells. And in 2021, we would envisage a continuing well program in Ghana. There could be an additional producer or an injector in Jubilee.

But actually, think the greatest benefit we'll see will be from the optimization of the reservoir from an injection and gas offtake. And then we will see continued drilling on Enyenra. We've got the Ntome-nine well to complete. And again, Entome has produced actually very well through the first quarter, well ahead of the operators' initial guidance. And we would expect with Entome nine coming on to see some additional improvement.

So I think it a real characteristic of conventional assets that they require less maintenance CapEx. And ultimately, you're seeing that from the Kosmos portfolio whereby where in 2020, we're going to be cash flow breakeven in the low 30s. And actually, we can sustain that sub-thirty five into 2021. So these aren't just one off interventions that cause damage. They're actually sustainable interventions because of the nature of the reservoirs.

So I think that sort of covers your question around the portfolio. Just on terms of admin, clearly, we're ahead of the dollar requirement over the last sort of thirty days, I think, which ends at the May. So and then we'll take a decision. I think it is an administrative point whether or not we there were a reverse split, but clearly the stock price is making progress and we're ahead of the $1 criteria as we stand at the moment. And would continue that progress through May.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks, Andy. That's clear.

Speaker 2

All right. Thanks.

Speaker 0

Our next questions come from the line of Richard Tullis of Capital One Securities. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning, Neil and Andy. Could you speak on current drilling cost trends with this downturn? Andy, do you see costs to drill the deepwater exploration wells next year, say, in Suriname? Could you compare that to say this what it would have cost in say the second half of twenty nineteen?

Speaker 2

Yes. Great question, Richard. I think we are we clearly are seeing an industry today where there probably as we look to 2021, there will be high availability of rigs. And I suspect there will be the opportunity to probably do better than your benchmark at the second half of twenty nineteen. Just need to remember that 2019 wasn't all that high.

So there comes a point when you're getting very close to the ultimately the sort of cash breakeven for the drilling contractors. So I think we'll see I'm sure there's a potential for some cost savings sort of year on year. But I'm not sure that it's dramatic. Ultimately, the saving that we can make is by having the right well design and drilling efficiently. So I think there will be some benefit, Richard, but we know there comes a point where the industry cannot lower its cost base simply from the supply chain.

It actually has to create lower cost either by advantaged assets and by more efficient development processes.

Speaker 5

Thank you for that. And just as a follow-up, a bit on the housekeeping side. Were there any shut ins in the Gulf Of Mexico in April? And what the oil mix or the oil component of the 7,000 a day for the second quarter, what would that oil component be? And that's all for me.

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. No, Richard. Yes, just as housekeeping, there were no shut ins in April and the oil mix is about 80%.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks.

Speaker 0

Our next questions come from the line of Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 6

Thank you guys for the time this morning. The first question is around Tortue. Recognizing it must be very difficult to execute any process in a coronavirus world, but just any thoughts on your ability to ultimately monetize the asset, thoughts on timeline and then the value of the resource?

Speaker 2

Yes. No, I think Neil, we've continued to make really good progress. I think in general, I've been surprised at how well the company has functioned with remote working and actually how well the connections have been with our partners. We have sort of consistent VC platforms now. And so we're enabling to continue with virtual management presentations and virtual data rooms.

So actually, the point that I made, I think at our 1Q at our 4Q commentary was, we've obviously updated the virtual data room with all the new data on Orca, the appraisal on Tortue and Yakitoranga. And so we now have a fully populated data room and we have the ability to continue to work with potential farm in need. All that said, is it more difficult? Is the business environment more difficult? Yes, it is.

But the point I'd make about Tortue is that it is a distinctive greenfield project in a world where companies are thinking long term. It has a breakeven FOB price of less than $5 Why? Because it has a very low cost of gas supply, very productive wells, over 200,000,000 standard cubic feet a day and an innovative low cost midstream solution. So it is low cost gas. And I think that's absolutely critical for us to gain interest.

And it has to be coming on in a world where people perceive the demand is there. And with a startup for the first phase in 2023 and then FID of Phases two and three, not until sort of post 2023 with gas coming on the back end of the decade. I think it's perfectly timed. So from a strategic perspective, I think it remains relevant. And ultimately, in terms of price expectations, our view is to ensure that we've got a self funded business.

And so that we protect the balance sheet and we can adjust the equity that we sell down to achieve that outcome. So I think with those variables in play, I think we continue to make good progress.

Speaker 6

Thank you. And the follow-up, I appreciate the Slides six and seven. That's very helpful around maintaining the balance sheet. Andy and Neil, just if you could flesh it out in more detail, the way the equity has been trading and even the way the credit has traded until recently would suggest that there's distress in the business. Obviously, what you're describing today is scenario where you can make your way through the down cycle to participate in the upside.

So from where you guys sit as the leadership of the firm, can you talk about what gives you confidence about your ability to navigate the down cycle with some more detail?

Speaker 2

Yes. Why don't I make a couple of comments and pass it over to Neil. As you said, think Slides six and seven are important. The first point, we entered the down cycle with significant liquidity, $580,000,000. I think a point that I'd like to add actually is that we don't have any debt on our Gulf Of Mexico assets.

So that if required, if necessary, we have an additional source of liquidity there. So liquidity is strong. And the second characteristic is the low price for the cash flow breakeven. So sort of 2Q forward and actually into 2021, flow breakeven is in the low 30s. And that's without the hedges, without working capital.

So it's a very conservative view of the world. And I think that's the point that I wanted to communicate with those two slides is ultimately the strength of the cash flow breakeven. And we're ultimately in a world where we're close to that world today. And ahead of this, we took the steps to restructure the hedges, which gives us in the event that the world turns against us, we have protection on Brent from 43 down, HLS from 30 down. So those are the bits that actually make up the picture and that's the story that we're trying to tell on Pages six and seven.

Speaker 6

Yes. I think the only

Speaker 7

thing I would add Neil is we have good visibility on the production given our asset base. As Andy mentioned, we're well hedged for the remainder of this year with fixed protection all the way down. So we know what's coming into the business. We've taken the steps to reduce the cost which get us to a very low cost basis in the last half of the year. And then we have plenty of liquidity through the RBL and the RCF and then obviously the access to our unlevered sources in terms of the GOM and Mauritania Senegal as well as the asset sales that we're working through.

So I think sort of you put that sort of picture together, we feel good about sort of the cash flow generation of the business and the levers we can pull around the liquidity side if we choose to. So we do have a lot of flexibility and that gives us ultimate comfort around pushing the business forward.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Steve.

Speaker 2

Great. Thanks, Neil.

Speaker 0

Our next questions come from the line of Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 8

Thanks for taking the question. Back in February happier times I suppose, you made the point that as part of the ESG strategy, you will not be doing oil focused exploration going forward, if I remember correctly. And I think for 'twenty one, you have plans to explore in Namibia, Saramay and Suriname, all of which are oil basins. How should we kind of reconcile those two?

Speaker 2

Yes. What I said, Pavel, was that we weren't going to access new frontier positions, yes? And I did say actually in February that we were going to drill out our existing advantaged portfolios. Why? The issue with taking on a new frontier basin today is the cycle time to get it to be drill ready.

So you start accessing a new portfolio position at the beginning of this decade. You then have the time to include a deal. You then have the time to shoot seismic. You then have the time to get to drill ready prospects. It can be three, four, five years.

Then you have the cycle time through appraisal to development, yes? You start looking at that and it's not only a draw on capital from the business, but you're entering a period where I believe you could see continuing demand destruction. So we were clear though, Pavel, where you've accessed the acreage, you've shot the seismic, you've processed the seismic, you've built the partnerships and you have drill ready prospects to go, we're absolutely going to drill them. Because you can bring those online if you're successful within a much shorter timeline. So I see what we're doing in Suriname, Namibia, Sao Tome to be absolutely in line with that.

And then we've got the ILX portfolio in the Gulf Of Mexico, which has an even shorter sort of time to market. So that's the point that we have and that's how we're going to create value for shareholders is by ensuring that whatever we do, we've got the ability to seek a payback from the project in a short timeline.

Speaker 8

Okay. Let me follow-up with a question about Ghana. Of all the kind of non U. S. Geographies you have assets in, I believe Ghana is the only one that had a full fledged lockdown.

And I'm curious if there was any impact on your workforce or just kind of the business in terms of people being able to physically get the work and do what they're supposed to.

Speaker 2

No, you're right, Pavel. There was a full lockdown in Accra for I think three weeks. It's now been lifted, but it was a full lockdown for three weeks. The answer was no. There wasn't any impact to the and it was in Accra itself.

It wasn't actually outside of Accra. So it didn't affect the operations base. It didn't affect the ability to get our crews in and out. So yes, as I said in my remarks, the operator has done a really good job to ensure that we're not only managing to move people, but and there are some specially chartered flights to do that. But actually, the quarantine as well, sort of two weeks of quarantine before they go offshore means you're absolutely safe in terms of managing the potential of coronavirus getting offshore.

So no, it's actually a positive constructive story of actually not only the country doing what it needed to do, but actually ensuring that there was no contamination as it were by foreign visitors coming into the country that weren't being properly quarantined.

Speaker 8

Good to hear. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Our

Speaker 0

next question comes from the line of Bob Brackett of Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you for that. I'd like to talk a little about the sell down process for Mauritania and Senegal. What I'm trying to get at is I realize objective function is a self funded development. That is minimal capital out of Cosmos' pocket upfront.

And the way the first phase transaction was handled was a drilling carry. Would you be amenable to a royalty structure, something that guarantees a revenue stream in the out years, but you're effectively just a royalty owner on a structure? And would the counterparties be amenable to a structure like that?

Speaker 2

Yes. Actually, Bob, I think we are exploring all options. But I think that the problem with the royalty structure would be is that you've still got to actually put the capital in to deliver that outcome. So our preference is to ensure that we build it truly self funded, which means that you wouldn't naturally gravitate to that as the singular mechanism. It could be a mix, but not as a singular mechanism.

You could retain some upside from a royalty structure, but clearly it doesn't deliver the outcome that we're targeting, which is self funded.

Speaker 9

And the the follow-up to that would be, can you talk about the the timing? How the conversations are evolving with the counterparties? And are there any clocks ticking in terms of relinquishing acreage under the PSA or having to move towards a final investment decision that keep you wanting to move this more quickly?

Speaker 2

No. I think the good news is that we've sort of captured the acreage from a through the development plans that have been submitted. So we're not under any clock from the government in terms of having to continue with activity to maintain the discovered resource. So there are no clocks ticking from that perspective. So the answer is, we continue to be in what I genuinely in good conversations with prospective buyers.

And ultimately, it sort of comes down to, as I answered in the prior question, you have something which has scale, you have something that actually has low cost, you have something that actually has a production build, which matches the market. So your second question about are we under any threat from an FID for Phases two and three at the moment? No. They will come post 2023 when we've got Phase one on stream. And what's interesting about Phase one is there's actually a significant investment in the infrastructure for Phases two and three.

To get the first gas on Phase one, you know it's about $4,000,000,000 ish. Of that, 2,000,000,000 is on the breakwater and the FPSO. So over 50% of the money that's going into the first phase is actually there as pre investment of Phases two and three. All of that means is the subsequent phases that follow are very economic. And the timing is not in front of the current buyer.

So those are attributes which make this quite a distinctive project.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you for that.

Speaker 2

Great. Thanks, Bob.

Speaker 0

Our next question comes from the line of James Hosie of Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 3

Hi, Andrew, Neil. Thanks for your time. Can I ask about your final slide on preparing for the future? I mean, at this stage, how likely are you to resume exploration drilling in 2021, both in The Gulf and elsewhere? Are there any particular sort of conditions you need to attach to when you could start?

And also when does restarting exploration, where does that

Speaker 0

rank as a capital allocation priority versus within the dividend?

Speaker 2

Yes. No, great questions, James. So if you sort of circle back, as we look at 2021, you can maintain the business minimal decline in a sort of sub-thirty $5 Brent world, yes? So first priority is to ensure that we've maintained the balance sheet. So as we start to think about expenditure beyond that maintenance CapEx, we have to, I think, to be confident that we can see a trajectory to gearing getting sort of comfortably below two, yes.

So I think if you can see a world where the trajectory gets you to that place, then I think you can legitimately get into a debate about incremental spend, yes? And I think it's incremental spend in high quality opportunities. And I think it has to be a few. I think our objective in the Frontier program is to look to ways in which we can get that expenditure in 2021 carried. And we're going through actually a very good process at the moment in terms of getting to the right equities to enable us to do that.

And then it's a question of having the flexibility in the Gulf Of Mexico, depending on the equity level, the timing, you can flock the wells in. So that's really where we see the priority. So the big point, I think it's an important question you've asked is, first thing, are your what's your objective is, strengthen balance sheet, yes? When we believe we're in a place where we're comfortably below two and on a trajectory to do that, then you can start thinking about alternative forms of capital allocation and where would you put your own dollar as opposed to somebody having an opportunity to get a carry. We've already got carry on the same at Saitome well from Shell in for drilling in 2021.

The objective is to find equivalent mechanisms for Namibia and Suriname.

Speaker 3

Versus dividend resumption?

Speaker 2

I think it's again, I think for the dividend resumption, we've got to genuinely get the balance sheet back in the right place. So I think from a shareholder perspective, the first thing they want to see is dividend back in the right place. And then I think you're in a debate of an incremental well in the gold versus the dividend, yes? But we're not in that place today. And I do think you have to get back to a position where you know that, that dividend is sustainable.

Yes? So and we're not in that position today. So I think that that's a debate to come. And we are going to ensure though that we have the opportunity set ready to move forward. But it has to be with the balance sheet that's fit and healthy.

Speaker 0

Okay. Thank you. Nice and clear.

Speaker 2

Great. Thanks.

Speaker 0

Our next question comes from the line of Al Stanton of RBC. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 10

Yes. Good evening, guys. Two questions, if I may. I think you've covered most of the ground. First of all, on Tortue, Phases two and three, you left me with the impression that they are very much in series rather than in parallel, and there'll be no spending on Phase two ahead of first gas and Phase one.

So we should time them that way. And then the second question is on exploration. I'm curious whether you just want to reduce your expenditure or whether you would rather diversify a little bit and you would consider swapping out of acreage in Namibia with one some of your neighbors and whether perhaps there's a clock ticking, whether you have a view on whether you've got to do your farm out before or after the Venus well in Namibia, say?

Speaker 2

Al, yes. I think you answered the first question yourself, think. So I think your answer was very good. So I agree with everything you said on the phasing on Tortue, which is ultimately Phase two will follow Phase one when Phase one is up and running. Yes, so you're absolutely accurate.

Yes, on the exploration portfolio, think Namibia is very interesting. That's what I would say. And I think there's a lot of action and there's a lot of industry interest in it. As you point out, there is the Venus well. The Venus well is cretaceous, but it's outboard of where we are and we see it as an independent test.

And it's got a different charge. So fundamentally, we don't we see it as something which is will be interesting, but is not a where there is an exploration dependency between the objectives we have for the Cretaceous objectives in PEL-thirty 9, which are up dip of Venus well. So there's no sort of clock ticking to get that done. I'm not given the current circumstances, I'm not absolutely sure what even what the timing is of the Venus well. But there's no linkage on that.

And no, we don't sort of see it about being a swap. We actually like the acreage we have in Namibia and want to participate.

Speaker 10

Fair enough. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. All right. Thanks, Al.

Speaker 0

Our next questions come from the line of James Carmichael of Berenberg. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 3

Hi, good evening guys. Just a quick one on the operating cost savings. Mostly not much of that came through during Q1. So just interested to understand, I think that implies a roughly sort of 20% cost reduction on a unit basis for the rest of the year. So just interested to get maybe a bit more color on where those savings are coming from and also to understand how sustainable they are, whether we should expect them to start creeping back up as activity comes back into the portfolio?

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. No, I think absolutely, you're dead right on the phasing of it. And the issue is around I think there are two elements that are going on, which there's a piece of it which is fundamentally sustainable. And so it is about restructuring contracts. It is about actually using the challenge that we have today to change the way we're doing business in both Ghana and Equatorial Guinea.

So and they're in different places if you think about it. In Equatorial Guinea, we've had the assets now two point five years. Two point five years, yes. So the objective at the beginning, takeover from Hess, put in place the management systems, start to unlock the resource that we have there through the ESPs, etcetera. And so it's been a process of getting our arms around it.

And actually, as it were, defining what the upside is. And the team with Trident as the operator there, they've done a really good job in doing that. We're now into sort of the next phase, which is about the optimization of that. So we've got a much better understanding of which ESPs work. So actually part of the ESPs actually are operating expense, yes.

So as you start to think about now sustaining that forward, you do it by picking the best locations that you know are going to work and therefore you have higher success rate. So that is sustainable, yes. And I think in Ghana, it's about changing the way that we work. Some of it is about high grading activity, which is the impact in 2020. What will sustain is that the 2020 and beyond will be a fundamental change in some of the work practices there.

So I think overall, I think it's a mix of both. There have been some things where, yes, you have deferred activity to create the cost savings in 2020, but they are going to be sustained in 2021 by items which will not appear in 2020 because they're longer term because they're required to change the way that you're doing business. So I don't think this is a fundamental sort of just a one off. And if you look at our G and A, cash G and A, of course, we've taken 25 reduction in headcount. So you start to think of the G and A saving of that, that obviously rolls through 2020 and into 2021.

And we are finding a lot more efficient ways to run the business today, a lot more efficient. So I'm it's a great question. That's one that we've been asking ourselves as we look we've been doing a lot of work on 2021 in terms of what we think the sustainable breakeven is. And we remain of a view that it is sub-thirty five with a minimal reduction to production. So it is interesting, think, that this is an opportunity, I think, for us to continue to drive efficiency into the business.

And I think we're using it not as just as a one off, but actually as a sustainable change. And best evidence of that is how Kosmos is working today. It's working remotely a lot cheaper, actually with 25% less people and actually doing exactly the same activity set, if not more.

Speaker 0

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks, James. Appreciate it.

Speaker 0

Thank you. We have reached the end of the question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to management for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thanks everyone for joining us today. If you'd like to get hold of us for any follow-up questions then please do over e mail or on call. Thank you. Thanks very much.

Speaker 0

This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a great day.