Kimbell Royalty Partners - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good evening, welcome to the Kimbell Royalty Partners fourth quarter earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Rick Black, Investor Relations. Thank you, Rick. You may begin.

Rick Black (Investor Relations)

Thank you, operator. Welcome everyone to the Kimbell Royalty Partners conference call to discuss fourth quarter financial and operational results. This is for the time period ending December 31, 2025. This call is also being webcast and can be accessed through the audio link on the Events and Presentations page of the IR section of kimbellrp.com. Information recorded on this call speaks only as of today, February 26th, 2026. Please be advised that any time-sensitive information may no longer be accurate as of the date of any replay listening or transcript reading. I would also like to remind you that the statements made in today's discussion that are not historical facts, including statements of expectations or future events or future financial performance, are considered forward-looking statements made pursuant to the Safe Harbor Provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

We will be making forward-looking statements as part of today's call, which, by their nature, are uncertain and outside of the company's control. Actual results may differ materially. Please refer to today's earnings press release for our disclosure on forward-looking statements. These factors, as well as other risks and uncertainties, are described in detail in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Management will also refer to non-GAAP measures, including Adjusted EBITDA and cash available for distribution. Reconciliations to the nearest GAAP measures can be found at the end of today's earnings press release. Kimbell assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Bob Ravnaas, Kimbell Royalty Partners Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Bob?

Bob Ravnaas (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Rick. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us this morning. With me today are several members of our senior management team, including Davis Ravnaas, our President and Chief Financial Officer, Matt Daly, our Chief Operating Officer, and Blayne Rhynsburger, our Controller. To start off, we are pleased to report strong fourth quarter results that helped cap off another outstanding year for Kimbell. We began 2025 with a $230 million acquisition of mineral and royalty interests beneath the historic Mabee Ranch in the Midland Basin, strengthening the Permian Basin as our leading area for production, activity, and inventory. During the second quarter, we redeemed 50% of the Series A Cumulative Convertible Preferred Units, simplifying the capital structure and lowering our cost to capital.

In the fourth quarter, we grew production organically from the third quarter and exceeded the midpoint of our guidance. The favorable fourth quarter performance allowed us to declare a Q4 2025 distribution of $0.37 per common unit, up 6% from Q3 2025, as we continue to focus on returning value to unitholders. For the year, we returned $1.60 per common unit through quarterly distributions, all classified as return of capital and 100% free of dividend income taxes, while also reducing debt through disciplined balance sheet management. I'm also pleased to report that our proved developed reserves increased approximately 8% in 2025 to a record level of nearly 73 million BOE. Our active rig count remains strong, with 85 rigs drilling across our acreage, representing a market share of U.S. land rigs at 16%.

In addition, our line of sight wells continue to be above the number of wells needed to maintain flat production, giving us confidence in the resilience of our production as we progress through 2026. Before turning the call over to Davis, I'd like to take a moment to provide some high-level comments on a topic we have received considerable investor interest about recently, which is our Barnett Woodford potential across the Permian Basin. We own all depths across the vast majority of our massive acreage position in our portfolio, which means that we stand to benefit considerably from any development in new formations, including the Barnett Woodford. As a mineral owner, we do not have to pay for test pilot programs or delineation projects, making this a meaningful catalyst for increased free cash flow for our unit holders in the future.

We have already seen development of the Woodford Barnett on our assets from some of our major operators, and we expect this to accelerate. Finally, as we reflect on 2025, we are grateful to our employees, board, and advisors for another successful year at Kimbell as we remain focused on generating long-term unit holder value. Now I'll turn the call over to Davis.

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

Thanks, Bob. Good morning, everyone. As Bob mentioned, 2025 was another excellent year for Kimbell. I'll start by reviewing our financial results for the fourth quarter. Oil, natural gas, and NGL revenues totaled $76 million during the fourth quarter, and run rate production was 25,627 BOE per day, which exceeded the midpoint of our guidance. On the expense side, fourth quarter general and administrative expenses were $10.4 million, $6.2 million of which was cash G&A expense, or $2.63 per BOE, within our guidance range. For the full year 2025, cash G&A expense was $2.51 per BOE, below the midpoint of guidance, reflecting operational discipline and positive operating leverage. Total fourth quarter consolidated Adjusted EBITDA was $64.8 million.

You will find a reconciliation of both consolidated Adjusted EBITDA and cash available for distribution at the end of our news release. This morning, we announced a cash distribution of $0.37 per common unit for the fourth quarter. We estimate that approximately 100% of this distribution is expected to be considered return of capital and not subject to dividend taxes, further enhancing the after-tax return to our common unit holders. This represents a cash distribution payment to common unit holders that equates to 75% of cash available for distribution, and the remaining 25% will be used to pay down a portion of the outstanding borrowings under Kimbell's secured revolving credit facility. Moving now to our balance sheet and liquidity.

As a reminder, on December 16th, 2025, Kimbell amended its existing credit agreement to, among other things, reaffirm our borrowing base and elected commitments of $625 million, lower the cost of bank debt financing by a combined 35 basis points, and extend the maturity to December 16th, 2030. At December 31st, 2025, we had approximately $441.5 million in debt outstanding under our secured revolving credit facility, which represented a net debt to trailing twelve month consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of approximately 1.5 times. We also had approximately $183.5 million in undrawn capacity under the secured revolving credit facility as of December 31st, 2025. We continue to maintain a conservative balance sheet and remain very comfortable with our strong financial position, the support of our expanding bank syndicate, and our financial flexibility.

Today, we are also releasing our financial and operational guidance ranges for 2026. Our production guidance at the midpoint remains unchanged from 2025, at 25,500 BOE per day and demonstrates the ongoing development, diversity, and stability of our production base. We remain confident about the prospects for continued development in 2026, given the number of rigs actively drilling on our acreage, especially in the Permian, as well as our line of sight wells exceeding our maintenance well count. In closing, 2025 marked a period of significant industry consolidation across our U.S. peer group. Looking ahead to 2026, we are excited about our position as a leading consolidator in the highly fragmented U.S. oil and natural gas royalty sector, which we estimate exceeds $650 billion in size.

Long-term demand for U.S. energy is expected to continue to grow, and we are well positioned to benefit through our diversified portfolio of high-quality royalty assets across the leading U.S. basins. With that, operator, we are now ready for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we pull for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Nick Armato with Texas Capital. Please proceed.

Nick Armato (Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning, all, and thanks for taking my questions this morning.

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

Morning, Nick.

Nick Armato (Equity Research Analyst)

For the first one, maybe regarding your 2026 guidance. While I realize you don't provide quarterly guidance, could you perhaps speak to your expected production cadence for the year from 4Q 2025 levels?

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

I would say relatively stable. It's difficult to predict, obviously, because we don't control development, but I think you can assume a relatively stable development cadence over the course of 2026.

Nick Armato (Equity Research Analyst)

Perfect. Makes sense. For my follow-up, I wanted to ask about the competitive landscape for M&A. After last year's industry consolidation, how would you characterize the competitive landscape outside of the Permian now that there's maybe less competition?

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

Yeah, it's a great question. I'd say that we have two advantages, the way we see it, in terms of our competitive positioning. First, we can target deals that are very meaningful to us in the $100 million-$500 million size range, and we can also focus, as we have historically, in every basin across the country. We're not just focused on one basin. I think the combination of those two factors puts us in a unique position to be competitive on high-quality assets that are within that medium size range, that can be meaningfully accretive to us, but that are also perhaps in out-of-favor basins. A good example of that would be the LongPoint Minerals acquisition that we did a few years ago, which has been tremendously successful for us.

A large portion of that acreage was the MidCon. I think a lot of folks that are focused on the Permian only weren't interested in buying that package because of the significant MidCon component. The MidCon is an area that we are extremely bullish on. There's a favorable dynamic now with gas and NGL price improvements. We've seen recent consolidation within that basin, specifically within Oklahoma. We remain very confident that that's gonna be a basin of significant growth and will add a lot of value to our business going forward.

Nick Armato (Equity Research Analyst)

Appreciate it. Thank you for all the color. I'll turn it back to the operator.

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

Likewise. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tim Rezvan with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Tim Rezvan (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning, folks. Good morning. Thanks for taking our questions. First one, I saw your net line-of-sight maintenance well assumption increased to 6.8 from 6.5. We thought that was interesting, you know, given the, you know, you're still heavily exposed to the Permian and lateral lengths and EURs and IP rates are all going up significantly as operators push longer laterals. I thought that net count might actually come down a bit. You know, a well is different from what it was, you know, seven years ago in terms of the production profile. Can you walk us through kind of what drove that change?

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

Sure. Pretty simple explanation. We determine that calculation once a year because a lot of work goes into it. Last year, in the first quarter, in January, we acquired Boren Resources, so a 100% high upside, unconventional, horizontal properties. When you add that into our mix, you would expect to see a very modest increase in the maintenance level.

Tim Rezvan (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Just folding that in. Okay.

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

Yeah, exactly.

Tim Rezvan (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, that's helpful. Then as a follow-up, I noticed, you know, your net debt, and I think you're allowed to use net debt now, in your numbers, so we'll look for that going forward. Down $30 million in the last six months. I know there's no rush or urgency on the mezzanine equity. I'm sure all else equal, you prefer to kind of clean that up. If we continue to see kind of the steady, you know, free cash flow, whittling down debt and improving liquidity, how are you thinking about maybe, you know, addressing that? Would you look maybe in the back half of the year to take some down, or is it more like leave it as is to give you optionality if there's M&A? Just trying to understand those dynamics. Thank you.

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

No, no. It's a good question. There is a minimum threshold for the amount that we can redeem at any given time. We would probably anticipate redeeming some portion of it in the latter half of the year, we'll be opportunistic about when we choose to do that and weigh the balance between cash interest expense on our RBL and what we're paying on the mezzanine.

Tim Rezvan (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Okay, fair enough. Thank you.

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Noah Hungness with Bank of America. Please proceed.

Noah Hungness (Equity Research Analyst)

Morning. I wanted to start off here on realizations. Could you maybe just help us how to think about the natural gas realizations as a % of Henry Hub, NGL realizations as a % of WTI, and differentials for crude for this year?

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

Sure. Good morning, Noah. Matt, maybe I'll turn that over to you. I know we almost always see some seasonality, as we see realizations quarter to quarter, but Matt, maybe you can add some more detail to that.

Matt Daly (COO)

Yeah. Yeah. The oil differential was flat at 2% between Q3 and Q4, and natural gas was 18% in Q3, went to 24% in Q4, then NGLs was flat quarter-over-quarter. You're right, Davis, generally, we see for a natural gas differential, sort of a seasonal increase in differentials during the winter months. So Q4 and Q1, you'll see higher differentials. As we get into Q2 and Q3, it'll likely get back down, you know, closer to 18%. Obviously, with Waha and the takeaway capacity being built out of the Permian over the next couple of years, we expect that'll certainly improve the long-term differentials for natural gas as that, as those pipelines get in place. Again, it's more of a seasonal item. Again, Q4, Q1, a little bit higher differential for gas than drops in Q2 and Q3.

Noah Hungness (Equity Research Analyst)

The NGL realizations, should we just kind of assume it's flat versus what four Q was?

Matt Daly (COO)

I would assume flat between Q3 and Q4.

Noah Hungness (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Then, kind of building off of the realizations questions here, can you maybe just talk about, what the Waha price inflection in 2027 will mean for you guys and kind of what your exposure to that theme is?

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

I mean, it should be a significant improvement for us and everyone else that's in the Permian. Matt, I'll let you answer that question.

Matt Daly (COO)

Yeah. I mean, over 85% of our gas production is outside Waha, so you have, you know, do have 15% that's exposed to that pricing, which is obviously was very low recently. Can we quantify the impact? I mean, it's certainly gonna be a catalyst, I think, for improving differentials as you get in the latter part of this, of this year and into 2027. We haven't quantified the improvement, but we're looking forward to seeing those differentials sort of long term, much lower as those pipelines come into place.

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

I think what we're more excited about in the Permian is just the continued development of different benches. We're seeing what seems like a rapid acceleration of delineation within the Woodford Barnett area. I know Bob commented a little bit on that in his opening comments, but that's a real opportunity for us to drive production growth across our basin at no cost to us. We're seeing just tremendous interest in developing the Woodford going forward, I think that's a huge tailwind for our business.

Noah Hungness (Equity Research Analyst)

Just responding to that, do you guys think that is this more of a story where the activity will improve production, or do you think you'll receive a bit of a revenue tailwind on the lease bonus side first? And if so, like, do you have a rough idea how much that might be?

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

More on the production side. Good question. Almost all of our acreage is leased, so we will probably get some lease bonus impact from that. When I think about that, it's gonna be acreage that we own in areas that could be prospective for Woodford Barnett, maybe more on the platform side than the Midland Basin, that are currently unleased. On the leased acreage, I mean, if, you know, just it's pretty easy just to go to our investor presentation and look at our Permian map. I mean, we just have tremendous exposure, you know, at all depths to that specific formation. To the extent that that continues to be developed, and we've already seen some development.

On the Mabee Ranch, for example, ConocoPhillips has drilled a couple of wells that have been very good, and then we're surrounded by activity from other operators like Oxy and Fasken. It is real. It's something that, you know, we've noticed in speaking to operators, their interest level increasing dramatically on that play. I think you'll, you know, I'm sure across your coverage universe, you've seen other Permian operators talk about their development plans pursuant to that. You know, it's just a great example of why minerals are a wonderful business model. Operators that are on our properties are some of the most innovative people in America, and they're just constantly looking for ways to improve production, whether that's enhancing production techniques or drilling at different depths in different formations.

The good news is that as a mineral owner, we don't have to pay for any of that experimentation or proving out, the best areas in which to apply CapEx. It's gonna be a nice windfall for us, and we believe in it.

Noah Hungness (Equity Research Analyst)

Are those leases HBP, or are they set to expire, which means that the operators are kind of on a timeline to get those drilled?

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

Almost all of our acreage is HBP.

Noah Hungness (Equity Research Analyst)

Gotcha. Okay, guys. Thank you so much.

Davis Ravnaas (President and CFO)

Thank you so much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to pass the call back to management for any closing remarks.