Kratos Defense & Security Solutions - Q3 2023
November 2, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, and welcome to the Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Marie Mendoza, Senior VP and General Counsel. Please go ahead.
Maria Mendoza (SVP)
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for the Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call. With me today is Eric DeMarco, Kratos's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Deanna Lund, Kratos's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin the substance of today's call, I'd like everyone to please take note of the Safe Harbor paragraph that is included at the end of today's press release. This paragraph emphasizes the major uncertainties and risks inherent in the forward-looking statements we will make this afternoon.
Please keep these uncertainties and risks in mind as we discuss future strategic initiatives, potential market opportunities, operational outlook, and financial guidance during today's call. Today's call will also include a discussion of non-GAAP financial measures, as that term is defined in Regulation G. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation from or a substitute for financial information presented in compliance with GAAP. Accordingly, at the end of today's press release, we have provided a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the company's financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP. With that, I will now turn the call over to Eric DeMarco.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Thank you, Marie, and good afternoon. We've recently received additional interest in Kratos from existing and potential new stakeholders. As a result, I'll begin my remarks with a summary of our strategy. Kratos is a technology company in the national security, commercial, and global markets, and we make targeted, internally funded investments to be first to market with relevant products and software. A benefit of Kratos being both defense and commercial market-focused is that we leverage our technology, our resources, facilities, production quantities, providing Kratos a competitive advantage, including cost, and also a unique, rapid technology development and delivery aspect to our customers. Kratos utilizes existing leading-edge technology, not yet to be developed bleeding-edge technology, which approach accelerates our development and fielding time while reducing our risk, schedule, and cost elements.
Kratos's dual commercial and security market focus is most represented by our space, satellite, software, and turbine technologies areas, representing approximately 50% of Kratos's revenue today. Also consistent with making targeted internal investments in our first-to-market strategy, at Kratos, affordability is a technology, and better is the enemy of good enough, ready to go today, which is becoming even more important in the existing budgetary and threat environment. As reflected in our third quarter and year-to-date results, Kratos's 2023 transition year of making targeted internal investments in high-growth market opportunity areas, while also generating increased revenue, profit, and cash flow, is on track, with this trajectory expected to continue in the future as an increased number of our programs and initiatives enter or see increased production or deployment.
The Kratos team in every business unit are successfully executing our strategy and business plan in the light of day as a public company, competitively bidding on and receiving large contract and program awards and programs of record, generating revenue and cash flow, while simultaneously managing significant internally funded investments to further grow the business. This approach has positioned the company for sustained future year-over-year organic growth with increased margins, along with potential transformational opportunities, including in tactical drones, software-based satellite, C2 and TT&C, turbines, propulsion, engines, hypersonics, and certain other system areas. As we complete 2023, we expect to achieve our forecast, and we currently expect Kratos's base case 2024 revenue and EBITDA profitability to continue to increase. Kratos's base case forecast does not include any assumed tactical drone production contracts, which we will only forecast once assured.
With the United States government, the defense industry, and Kratos currently operating under a continuing resolution authorization, similar to previous years, we will wait until we report Kratos's fourth quarter financial results in February to provide our detailed 2024 financial guidance to you, as we should have additional clarity on both the fiscal 2024 budget and the 2025 budget request outlooks at that time. However, unless something significantly adverse occurs funding-wise, at a high level, we are currently expecting at least 10% 2024 over 2023 base case organic revenue growth and increased EBITDA margins, with Q1 2024, similar to prior years, being the weakest due to the currently ongoing CRA. Kratos's recent program awards and our record backlog and huge opportunity pipeline, which are driving our demands for qualified personnel, is a primary reason for our expected future organic growth trajectory confidence.
Simply stated, Kratos has the right technology, software, systems, products, and solutions at the right price, at the right price points, at the right time to address certain of the most mission and time-critical national security and commercial market requirements. We currently have 400 open billable requisitions across our company on a base of approximately 3,800 employees, which is also indicative of the strength of our business and the demand for our offerings. The obtaining and retaining of qualified workers, including those willing and able to receive a national security clearance, remains a primary operational challenge, including the continuing increased cost of these individuals, which is impacting our margins. Recent Kratos business highlights include: the Air Force has now reported that an artificial intelligence combat-enabled Valkyrie successfully recently flew at the Eglin Gulf Test and Training Range.
As reported, AI algorithms developed and trained by the United States Air Force Research Lab [perform] autonomous air combat operations with the AI trained through deep reinforcement learning [that] use neural networks to fly the Valkyrie against simulated opponents, mission systems, and weapons. Also recently reported, in a separate flight, Kratos' Valkyrie successfully demonstrated all defined artificial intelligence-enabled, high-performance, uncrewed air vehicle-specified relevant functions. Kratos' Valkyrie with the United States Marine Corps also continues to progress, with the Marines recently announcing the successful first flight of Kratos' Valkyrie under the Penetrating Affordable Autonomous Collaborative Killer portfolio, or PAACK-P program, as Kratos was able to announce today.
As reported, the Marine Corps partnered with the Office of the Secretary of Defense, or OSD, for research and engineering, the Navy Air Systems Command, and the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division, with multiple expected additional funded future Valkyrie flights planned under the program. Kratos' drones, including Valkyrie, also continue to progress under the Rapid Defense Experimentation Reserve, or RDER program, including as related with the USMC. The Valkyrie is the only high-performance stealthy jet drone in its class flying today, continues to mature in actual flights with funded customers, including with artificial intelligence and other relevant mission systems, as the DoD progresses towards the future large-scale deployment of high-performance jet-powered drone UAV systems.
We have now executed phase I of an expected five year funded contract initiative with the new national security entity for Kratos' Valkyrie B version, Mission Capability Expansion, which initiative is very confidential. We have also now completed negotiations and expect to receive, in the fourth quarter, a Valkyrie-related contract in the tens of millions of dollars from a separate national security entity for a Valkyrie version A category. We have recently received an entirely new tactical system-related contract award, which we are unable to discuss further in any detail at this time.
Separately, we are in negotiations with the customer related to Kratos' Thanatos tactical drone system, a version of which is flying today, with multiple Thanatos systems expected to be performing funded mission capability demonstration expansion flights with this new customer in the future. We have also recently entered discussions with the customer regarding Kratos' Athena tactical drone system, also, which is now flying, and we hope to be under contract next year. Since our last report to you, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks announced the new Replicator initiative to field thousands of attritable autonomous drone systems over the next few years.
Similar to the reported, completely separate Air Force CCA program, where it has also been reported that thousands of CCA drones are expected to be fielded, I am also unable to say anything more on either Replicator or CCA at this time. However, Kratos is the only company with low cap-cost, high-performance, expendable, and attritable jet drones, both in production and flying today, including Airwolf, Mako, Valkyrie, Thanatos, Athena, and others. Assuming the fiscal 2024 budget is approved as we expect, and the fiscal 2025 NDAA and FYDP, typically re-released by the Pentagon in calendar Q1, are also, as we expect, late next year, we hope to receive our largest to-date Kratos tactical drone-related contract award, which once again, is not included in Kratos' base case financial forecast.
In addition to recent developments with Thanatos and Athena, Kratos' Ghost Works continues to make progress on a separate new system, and assuming the range scheduling holds, we expect to demonstrate this system later this year. Kratos' Ghost Works has also recently been focused on a large new prime program opportunity, which includes the rapid design and build of an additional separate new system, requiring significant Kratos-funded NRE, B&P, and other costs, which we expect to incur through Q4 and into Q1 of next year. We recently acquired Sierra Technical for approximately $25 million in Kratos stock, if all earnouts are achieved. Sierra is a longtime partner of Kratos, and this was a one-on-one negotiated stock exchange merger with STS's husband and wife founders.
Sierra recently received an approximate $77 million single award contract for two stealth jet drone, fifth generation aerial target, or 5GAT aircraft, with an initial period of performance of approximately three years and then expected production thereafter. For both competitive and security considerations, I am not gonna comment any further on Sierra-related to future growth expectations, other than to say that Kratos has big plans for the 5GAT stealth drone and also an additional opportunity Sierra is working on that is highly confidential, along with Kratos' Ghostworks. Our primary focus is to successfully execute the 5GAT program and be first to market with a fifth-generation aerial target drone system. We are working with Shield AI, with Shield's artificial intelligence pilot integration into several of Kratos' high-performance jet drones, including Valkyrie.
The Shield-Kratos relationship is exactly consistent with Kratos' first-to-market with relevant system strategy, with Kratos flying drones and Shield flying today, Hivemind AI pilot. We believe Shield will have a clear market advantage over its primary competitor, as Shield has access to Kratos' family of flying today jet drone systems and its competition of PowerPoints, ground models, simulations, or propeller planes. The Kratos Shield flights are occurring at the Burns Flat, Oklahoma facility, which I completely endorse, as the competition does not know what Kratos and Shield are up to, as Shield AI is expected to be advanced through these flights and also at a separate additional range facility. We continue to come down the learning curve on the 24 Valkyrie serial production run, with currently three separate Valkyrie variants, A, B, and C, underway, and a fourth variant we are currently considering based on recent customer interest.
We are internal resource planning, balancing, and phasing the Valkyrie production pace and Kratos' capital allocation against other new customer-funded tactical drone programs we have recently received and potential opportunities. We have also now submitted a large quantity ROM, or rough order of magnitude, to a government customer for a significant Kratos tactical drone production run, which production planning and preparation we have completed, along with our existing in-place critical suppliers. The demand for Kratos' target drones is strong and we expect to continue for the foreseeable future as the global recapitalization of weapon systems and the need to test and train on these weapon systems increases, as recently demonstrated in the Vigilant Wyvern test last week.
In the space and satellite area, almost every aspect of a satellite ground station can now be converted from hardware and software, lowering costs, accelerating technology advancement and deployment time, and increasing the ability for an operator to immediately react to changing conditions and requirements, which is the large, new and growing addressable market Kratos is pursuing. New satellite space vehicle technology and requirements providing Kratos market opportunity include software-defined payloads, high-throughput spot beam-enabled and other advanced system payloads, and laser, optical, and other capabilities. Kratos' first-to-market OpenSpace software platform is the only software networking solution specifically designed to address and advance this new software and commercial technology-focused paradigm, connecting dynamic space to a dynamic virtualized ground system. We recently announced that Kratos' OpenSpace platform is the first commercially available, fully virtualized satellite ground system to achieve MEF 3.0 Carrier Ethernet certification.
The MEF Carrier Ethernet, or CE standard, is the same industry standard adopted by global, terrestrial, and mobile network carriers, meaning Kratos' OpenSpace makes satellite service networks seamlessly interoperate with terrestrial and cellular transport networks. The CE standard achievement is representative of Kratos' satellite team's successful and methodical execution of our global satellite software-based virtualization strategy, led by Kratos' first-to-market OpenSpace system. The total addressable market opportunity for Kratos' OpenSpace, both commercially and for national security, is expected to remain strong, with thousands of additional satellites planned for launch in the future. Kratos' Turbine Technologies, or KTT, and our TDI engine business, we believe, similar to our tactical drone business, is well positioned for the expected significant growth in drones, cruise missiles, powered munitions, high-performance loitering munitions, and other systems, all of which need engines.
Kratos' first-to-market and made in the USA engines are flying today and are designed into several new program systems, including, as recently reported, with Kratos TDI engines and the Boeing Powered Joint Direct Attack Munition. For engines, motors, and propulsion systems, the time to get successfully designed into the vehicles, munitions, and systems is now, with working engines, not unproven startup technology and photo renditions, and Kratos is taking advantage of our first-to-market positioning. Since our last report to you, we have received a contract to integrate Kratos's running engines into certain of Kratos's jet drones, both target and tactical. Once integration is complete, we believe that Kratos will be one of the only companies in the world vertically integrated, building both the jet aircraft and propulsion system, significantly reducing cost and supply chain risk, while also increasing system performance for our customers with new technology provided by Kratos's engines.
We will also have the same vertical integration with Kratos' Zeus rocket motors and our Erinyes and Dark Fury aerial flyers. Kratos Turbine ShadowWorks development team has also been working on a separate new class of turbofans, Kratos code-named Blade, for new, larger drones. I hope to be able to provide an update on our tangible progress with this initiative in the future, as the total addressable market size for this larger engine class is incredibly large, as represented by recently published reports. The demand for Kratos' turbine products, technology, and solutions is strong across the portfolio, including in the turbofan, space propulsion, hypersonic, and other classified areas. KTT Turbine ShadowWorks is the crown jewel of Kratos and is having an incredible 2023, and we are expecting continued significant future organic revenue, EBITDA, and profit growth from the business.
Kratos' microwave electronics business, with a record backlog and opportunity pipeline, is also performing well, including our team's successful penetration of the new to Kratos microwave space and satellite market. In addition to space and satellite, the global recapitalization of air defense, drone, counter UAS, missile radar, powered and loitering munitions, and C5ISR systems is providing a large and growing market opportunity for Kratos' microwave business. Kratos Rocket Systems business, where Kratos Zeus, Erinyes, Dark Fury, ARAV, and other rocket-related systems are produced, also recently had a very successful mission with our government partners at the Vigilant Wyvern exercise, with multiple Kratos rocket system ballistic missile targets and multiple Kratos unmanned drone system targets utilized, with all Kratos systems being successfully tracked, intercepted, and destroyed by the USS Carl M. Levin.
The Vigilant Wyvern exercise is a recent example of franchised Kratos programs, systems, and products from multiple Kratos business units, providing mission-critical solutions to our customers for the United States national security. I encourage you to watch the videos of Vigilant Wyvern when you can, where you can see your company's products in action. Importantly, the Kratos Rocket System team recently met with the L3 Aerojet team, and I can assure you that L3 is 100% mission and customer-focused, including as related to Kratos Zeus systems, and Kratos recently ordered numerous Zeus rocket motors from L3 related to upcoming Kratos Erinyes and other missions.
Kratos' C5ISR product, hardware, and systems business is expected to be one of our strongest future organic growth generators for the next several years, with important contracts and programs of record, including Sentinel, Patriot, THAAD, Enduring Shield or IFPC, Integrated Air and Missile Defense Battle Command or IBCS, Short-Range Air Defense or SHORAD, and many others. Kratos' C5ISR team's professionalism, our facilities, classified assets, past performance qualifications, et cetera, and their mission focus and execution has positioned Kratos C5ISR as the go-to relevant hardware, product, and system provider in the industry. Past performance qualifications are incredibly important in the national security software systems and product business, and Kratos' provide a significant barrier to entry to new or startup potential entrants.
There are also a number of cross Kratos division programs, including where our C5ISR team and our space, defense, rocket, and hypersonic businesses together are providing a complete integrated system solution to the customer. We're focused internally on organic growth and on increased profit margins with no significant acquisitions planned. We are balancing our increased future EBITDA profit objectives against a significant number of new program opportunities that we are and expect to pursue, many of which are right in Kratos' wheelhouse that have recently presented themselves. Now is the time to win these and get designed in for these new significant opportunities. Deanna?
Deanna Lund (EVP and CFO)
Thank you, Eric. Good afternoon. As we've included a detailed summary of the third quarter financial performance, as well as the fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial guidance in the press release we published earlier today, I will focus on the highlights in my remarks today. Revenues for the third quarter were $274.6 million, up from $228.6 million in the third quarter of 2022, reflecting a 20.1% organic increase. Revenues came in above our forecasted range of $240 million to $260 million, with organic growth in our space and satellite, turbine technologies, microwave products, C5ISR, training solutions, and unmanned systems businesses. Our KGS and unmanned systems segments grew organically 22% and 13.4%, respectively.
Cash flows used from operations for the quarter of $100,000 included working capital requirements associated with funding the sequential revenue growth of $17.7 million from the second quarter. Consolidated days sales outstanding continued to improve from 120 days in the second quarter to 117 days in the third quarter, with the increase in receivable balance in the third quarter of $14.8 million, driven by the sequential increase in revenues.
In addition, advanced purchases of inventory to mitigate potential supply chain disruptions and delays continued, as well as increased production to fulfill scheduled future deliveries, resulting in an increase of $3.7 million in inventories for the quarter, representing a reduced pace from the first half of 2023, with a total use of working capital for the nine months of 2023 of $23.7 million related to increased inventory levels. Free cash flow used from operations was $14.3 million after funding capital expenditures of $14.2 million.
Our contract mix for the third quarter of 2023 was 72% from fixed price contracts, 22% from cost plus fixed fee contracts, and 6% generated from time and material contracts. Revenues generated from contracts with the U.S. government during the quarter were approximately 68%, which include revenues generated from contracts with the DoD, non-DoD, federal government agencies, and FMS contracts, and 12% of revenues generated from commercial customers and 20% from foreign customers. Moving on to financial guidance.
Our fourth quarter and updated full year 2023 financial guidance we provided today includes our current forecasted business mix and current delivery schedules, and our assumptions related to the expected impact of our continued operating challenge related to obtaining and retaining qualified technical personnel and the related increased cost for these employees and across our labor base, as well as the continued impact of supply chain disruptions, inflation, and related expected cost and price increases, including increased personnel costs associated with hiring new qualified technical personnel that are currently and expected to continue impacting both the industry and Kratos.
Our revised full year 2023 cash flow guidance reflects the ongoing impact of working capital requirements to fund revenue growth, including the continued increase in inventory balances, which was previously expected to begin reducing and converting to cash in the second half of 2023, as well as the shift of certain milestones on a handful of projects, primarily in our training solutions and C5ISR businesses, which has impacted expected cash receipts of approximately $16 million to $17 million shifting into 2024. Eric?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Great. Thank you, Deanna. We'll turn it over to the moderator now for questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. At this time, we'll conduct the question-and-answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. One moment for our first question. Our first question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Seth Seifman (Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, thanks very much. Good afternoon, and nice quarter. I guess, you know, one thing that stood out to me as we look at the rest of the year and, you know, we look at what the guidance is for the fourth quarter and, you know, what's implied with regard to sales and EBITDA margin versus Q3, you know, what accounts for the step down there and in what's usually, you know, pretty seasonally strong quarter?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Right. Primarily, Seth, this year, the CRA, which we had built into our plan, as you know, from the beginning, and we anticipated we would have one at least for the quarter. We sell, as we've discussed previously, a lot of software that comes in either Q3 and/or Q4. We received several of those orders in Q3. We may not get them in Q4. That's number one. Number two, I mentioned there are a number of new opportunities that we are pursuing, where we are incurring very significant bid and proposal, non-recurring engineering, and other costs. We're actually building some things that have to go into the air, and that's also something that's been factored into Q4. So we're trying to balance. We're making sure we meet or beat our numbers, while also positioning ourselves to go after and win some of these new opportunities.
Seth Seifman (Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Great, thanks. And then, maybe when we think about where, you know, things are ending up for the year on OpenSpace versus kind of, you know, what you thought coming in, and then, you know, the prospects into 2024 and beyond, if you could update us there, that would be great.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Yeah, absolutely. OpenSpace, as I said, continues to make progress. It is not making as fast a progress as, I'll speak about me personally, as I had hoped, but my expectations, as you know, I'm the CEO, are very, very high. But the business is killing it, literally killing it. And, as I mentioned, even in the remarks or in the release, we're in source selection on a very large opportunity right now. And there are a number of very large opportunities that we're pursuing, that we believe we're gonna win because we're the only one that has the virtualized software element. So we believe we've got a tiger by the tail here, Seth. We got a tiger by the tail, and we're gonna hit an inflection point.
It's either gonna be in late 2024, my opinion, late 2024 or 2025, and that inflection point is when we cross the lines of development against production and deployment and sales. And the production, deployment, and sales aspect of that curve are rapidly going up, and when they cross that development cost and maintenance cost number that we have to maintain, then we're gonna see significant margin expansion. And that's what's coming. So the business is doing, it's doing phenomenally well. I mean, they're first to market with new technology. The leader is, he, he's focused, the whole team is focused, and they're doing it. And thank God, at Kratos, we have, we've got a number of other things that are coming up, that are hitting all cylinders. And so if it's a quarter or two later than I hoped, all is gonna be fine.
Josh Sullivan (Managing Director)
Okay, very good. Thanks very much.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Yep.
Operator (participant)
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli with Truist. Your line is open.
Michael Ciarmoli (Managing Director)
Hey, good evening, guys. Nice quarter. Thanks for taking my questions. Hey, Eric, just, I mean, you had good margins in the quarter, especially adjusted EBITDA margins, I think, highest since maybe second half 2021. Are you starting to see or get that expected pricing and flow-through from some of these newer contracts that you had kind of anticipated?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
We're starting to. But Michael, the costs of labor continue to be significant, especially in the specialty areas. Think turbo machinery engineers, software engineers, and system engineers. And as I mentioned, we have about 400 open recs on a 3,800 person base, and it's, we're a product company, so that tells you the amount of revenue we've got sitting there ready to convert, and those are expensive people. So good news, we're growing, and at some point, the growth, irrespective of what the cost increases are, the growth is gonna overcome it. We're really gonna have a step function in margin increases, but it's not gonna be for the next few quarters because of the reasons I said.
Michael Ciarmoli (Managing Director)
Okay. Got it. And then, the color on 2024 and the 10% growth, can you give us maybe your underlying assumptions? You know, I know it's hard, but the budget environment, you know, whether we get sort of a full year, kind of this sequestration, and then maybe even just some directional growth within your different lines of business. And I think you said you didn't really include you didn't include any tactical drones in there.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Yep. Yep. So if we obviously, if we have a full year CRA, we're not gonna-- we will not hit 10%. It's not, not gonna happen. It's, you know, no-- and it's not really the no new contract awards, it's the no new, it's the no new increases in existing production, because we have a number of programs that we're in production on that are ramping. All right, assuming we get something by the end of the year, January, February, I feel pretty good we can hit the 10% with, with some of the big drivers projectionally, as you asked, C5ISR, our C5ISR business. We are in production on a number of programs, and we are entering production on programs like IBCS and SHORAD. Sentinel EMD phase is ramping.
That's gonna significantly ramp this year, and we're following our great partner, Northrop Grumman. They're probably one of the best partners we have on that. Enduring Shield or IFPC, with our partner, Dynetics. We're expecting significant activity with that program. I think it was publicly reported that the units that we're building are all gonna be delivered next year. Our engine business, our turbine business, Michael, is doing phenomenally well. That is where a significant number of those open recs are, and those are programs in space propulsion, turbofans and turbojets, and hypersonic systems, and also the big B-52 re-engine program. So our engine business is definitely gonna have an up and to the right trajectory next year. Our microwave electronics business, as you know, it's in Israel, and God bless and help them all, the whole country.
But that business is ripping, as you can imagine. We are on, we are on Iron Dome, we are on Arrow. You've been reading about these in the paper. We're on the radar, we're on the birds. So our microwave business is going, is gonna continue to be up and to the right, significantly. Our rocket system business, okay, ballistic missile targets and hypersonic system testing, those are incredibly well-funded, and the launch manifest is very robust for us next year. And we're gonna see an uptick in our drone business next year, primarily driven by target drones.
All of the weapon systems that the primes are selling right now, our partners, the primes, like Lockheed Martin, they're another outstanding partner, and it was their system that was involved in Vigilant Wyvern on the weekend test.They have to be exercised against target drones and ballistic missile targets. So that's driving our target drone business. So literally across the board, we're expecting and have the programs for significant growth and margin expansion. We are being very cautious in tactical drones. We are not gonna assume anything until it happens, but I hope you can see by my commentary, God willing, we're almost there.
Michael Ciarmoli (Managing Director)
Got it. Got it. Just one other one. The downward revision to cash flow, you know, sounded like just the working capital support growth, but I think you also talked about some milestone collections maybe slipping out. You know, I guess you don't wanna talk to next year, but I think we've been, all of us, have been waiting for some cash generation. What, what's sort of the thought around cash flow?
Deanna Lund (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, I don't wanna comment about next year at this point, Michael, but, the milestones, they were about $16 million-$17 million on a small number of projects, but they obviously were fairly significant in our training solutions and our modular systems business. We expect to collect those in 2024.
Michael Ciarmoli (Managing Director)
Okay. Okay.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Mike, let me give you
Michael Ciarmoli (Managing Director)
Yeah.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Mike, let me give you a little more, a little more color on that. I want to. We, we're standing up an engine production line. We're gonna be standing that up. It'll be done by the middle of next year, because we're anticipating going into production on at least one engine. So we're standing that line up. We've stood up a new line in the tactical drone area for something. That'll be stood up by the end of Q1, middle of Q2. These are for programs that are funded. So we're spending some money to get. We've won these programs, we've won development, now they're going into production. We're standing these up, and that's gonna take some capital as well.
Michael Ciarmoli (Managing Director)
Got it.
Deanna Lund (EVP and CFO)
As well as the second line of the Valkyrie production that we announced, that we started earlier this year. So that will be ongoing throughout 2024 as well.
Michael Ciarmoli (Managing Director)
Got it. All right. Thanks, guys. I'll jump in the queue.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Okay.
Operator (participant)
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Mike Crawford with B. Riley Securities. Your line is open.
Mike Crawford (Senior Managing Director)
Thank you. And thanks for providing some color on some of these other drones under development, in addition to Valkyrie, like Thanatos and Athena. Another one that you won a couple of years ago, AFRL award for the Off-Board Sensing Station, the OBSS contract, so which is the, I think, the derivative drone out of that is your Demogorgon. Is that one that's still featuring in your plans?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
We are not, we are not involved with OBSS at this point, Mike.
Mike Crawford (Senior Managing Director)
Okay. And you also mentioned the three year, $77 million, 5GAT contract. I imagine that there's no reason you wouldn't continue to execute on the same playbook you've used with targets in the past and develop a fifth-generation actual tactical drone out of the 5GAT. Is that a process that's already starting or something you're gonna decide on next year?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
I'm sorry, Mike. No, no, I can't comment on that. I'm sorry.
Mike Crawford (Senior Managing Director)
Okay. That's fine. Just maybe switching gears to OpenSpace. So you're first to market with this virtual networking solution that goes way beyond just, you know, tracking and telemetry and control. And are there any bottlenecks that you see with your solution, be it data radio or something else, that when you're trying to connect all these disparate networks?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
I do not believe so. The team that the president of that, that Phil's pulled together and created, they're incredible. These are some of the, if not the greatest technologists, not only in the company, but in the entire industry. And the speed that they have developed OpenSpace to address existing hardware elements on the ground, to virtualize them, to interface with space, the speed of which they have mastered the technology of the RF or analog signal coming down, converting it to IP, so now it's virtualized, and again, which means the entire backbone can be virtualized, is incredible to me. And I do not believe there's an issue, Mike, relative to what you asked.
Mike Crawford (Senior Managing Director)
Okay, thanks, Eric. And then, maybe just, you know what? I'm gonna leave it there. Thank you.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Okay, thank you.
Operator (participant)
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director)
Hey, good afternoon, Eric and Deanna. Nice, nice results this quarter.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Good afternoon, sir.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director)
Hey, Eric, maybe just to start off, I wanted to see if you could level set us on maybe the revenue run rate for the Turbine Technologies business, and how much of growth in 2024 can that perhaps contribute? And then, maybe more importantly, you've had some nice wins there recently, but can you talk about the pipeline in that business in particular? Because it sounds like there's it's expanding pretty rapidly.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Right. So, level setting that business, think of it going from approximately $70 million or $75 million to over $100 million in 2024. So that's the type of trajectory that it's on. Programmatically, the big programs are in no particular order, but these are the big ones, are with our partner, Rolls-Royce, on the B-52 reengine. I'm not allowed to say the name, but we're involved with companies that are doing lunar landing and maybe beyond the moon, those types of engines, those companies. We're involved with agencies for engines for drones, and Kratos' engines, certain of Kratos' engines right now are being integrated into drones. All of this I can't talk about other than what I just said. We have the program with Boom, so we're designing a supersonic engine for Boom Supersonic.
That's a big, that's a big one. And then we have a number of programs with the Air Force and/or the Air Force Research Lab that we are working on turbojets and turbofans for drones and cruise missiles and loitering munitions. And we are very. We have a very specialized aspect of that business that's an MRO for helicopter engines that is doing phenomenally. If you're designed in on legacy systems right now, there are very few new starts in certain areas, which means the legacy systems have to survive and keep flying for years and years. And if you're in some of those niches on certain helicopters there that we are, that business is very powerful because there are no replacements coming.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director)
Okay, very helpful. And if I, and if I could, just one follow-up on the, on, on sort of the slower pace of EBITDA growth in the next year and, and obviously, the margin pressure you talked about from, from staffing and specifically the specialized people you need. It seems like this has obviously been, been going on for quite a while as the industry is going through some pretty substantial growth. How much are you looking at maybe other geographic locations or, or maybe sort of significantly changing maybe the, the, you know, where you're recruiting or other maybe approaches to that? Because it seems like that's clearly holding you back a little bit, and has for quite a while in terms of, of some of the opportunities.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Right. Yeah. So on the first part of your question, I wanna make sure I clarified that I was clear. In our base case, and you know, assuming we get a budget in a reasonable amount of time, and we do 10% year-over-year growth, we're gonna expect our EBITDA margins to increase at a greater rate than that. So we're expecting significant EBITDA margin growth. I'm saying it's being held back by the cost inputs, including labor.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director)
Got it.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Okay? So I wanna make sure I'm very, I'm very clear. Okay?
Ken Herbert (Managing Director)
Okay.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
We are absolutely studying everything that you mentioned, different geographies, educational areas, technical schools. Mike, this is a supply-demand problem. Ken, excuse me. Ken, there's no supply of qualified people or people that want to get qualified, people that want to get a security clearance, Ken, it's not there. There is a recapitalization of strategic weapon systems occurring for the obvious reasons. In addition to that, we have new space companies that are hiring these people because they want to go to Mars or Venus... There's just an incredible demand, and there's not enough of them, and they're being bid up, which is why we are, and now I'm going back to a question Mr. Ciarmoli asked. Ken, I'm really glad you asked this.
We are putting a significant amount of money in robotic machinery, 3D printing, automation. We're standing up a center of excellence to produce very, very unique elements for our engines. We're making significant capital investments to address that we can't get the people, so we're going to automate the heck out of it. I would say we are on the leading edge in the industry, including the big guys, on a relative basis, of course, of robotics, 3D printing, automation, automated manufacturing. We're doing all those things, and it's another reason why our CapEx and our other stuff is gonna remain up, because we're trying to offset the labor issue we have.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director)
Great, Eric. Appreciate the color and good luck there.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Yep, thank you.
Operator (participant)
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird. Your line is open.
Peter Arment (Senior Research Analyst)
Yeah, thanks. Good afternoon, Eric and Deanna. Hey, Eric,
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Good afternoon.
Peter Arment (Senior Research Analyst)
Where are you in the development of engines for your own drones? I know you had talked about, you know, that was one of the areas that you had focused on way back when.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Yeah.
Peter Arment (Senior Research Analyst)
What can you say on that?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Well, let me. We have now received a contract from a U.S. government agency, and we are integrating, running Kratos engines into certain of our tactical drones and our target drones. We're doing it right now. We're gonna be doing that throughout 2024, and hopefully, this time next year or shortly thereafter, we will be, I believe, the only company in the world, totally vertically integrated airframe, electronics, et cetera, and engine with flying aircraft. So we I'm glad, Peter, you asked. The team has made significant progress. We're under contract, and we're integrating Kratos engines into Kratos aircraft.
Peter Arment (Senior Research Analyst)
Yeah, that's helpful. That's right. And then on just in general, on Valkyrie and, maybe we'll just focus on Valkyrie. You know, do you still anticipate that this is just gonna be another year of a lot of test flights? I mean, you still continue to be kind of in this lead position, but, you know, just like the marine program, PAC program, I mean, that's a new development, and obviously they're gonna continue to test flight. How do you see this kind of playing out?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
I learned my lesson in 2019 and then 2020, even when the customers came out publicly and they said, "We're gonna start ordering Valkyries or other Kratos planes in quantity," and because of either change in personality at the government or change in policy, it didn't happen. I'm gonna Peter, I'm gonna be very cautious. I don't know. But on the optimistic side of the point you made, we are flying with multiple customers right now. We're the only one flying. We're the only one with aircraft. We're doing all types of mission systems, including with artificial intelligence. I believe that this will happen. I mean, Replicator, I think, is just another indication this is gonna happen. And we're gonna be there when it happens, and we're gonna participate. I'm sorry, I'm gonna be cautious, brother, on this one.
Peter Arment (Senior Research Analyst)
Yeah, no worries. I figured I'd ask. But on the target side, well, what, where, should this business be ramping up further, just given all the sort of national security implications that we're seeing on missile defense and other activities?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Ab-
Peter Arment (Senior Research Analyst)
Do you expect that?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Absolutely.
Peter Arment (Senior Research Analyst)
It should be a bigger business-
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Yes
Peter Arment (Senior Research Analyst)
In the lookout?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
You will see 2024 will be a significant increase in our unmanned systems revenue, primarily from target drones at multiple customers that are ramping up their utilization. Also, Peter, in our rocket business, ballistic missile targets and other rocket-propelled targets, you're gonna see a significant increase there. We have the orders in 2024, which again ties into my optimism that we're gonna generate the growth we have. Our targets business is ripping, and obviously, it's because of what's going on geopolitically in the world.
Peter Arment (Senior Research Analyst)
Makes sense. Thanks for the comments.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Yes, sir.
Operator (participant)
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Josh Sullivan with The Benchmark Company. Your line is open.
Josh Sullivan (Managing Director)
Hey, good evening.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Good evening, sir.
Josh Sullivan (Managing Director)
Just as far as the Sierra acquisition, how much of the $77 million 5GAT contracts is yet to be consumed as the deal closes here?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Is yet to be incurred, Josh?
Josh Sullivan (Managing Director)
Yes, yeah. Yeah, exactly.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Yeah. The vast majority. They received the contract approximately 2 months, 60 days prior to us acquiring them. As I mentioned, and as I think you know, we've been partners with Sierra... and the significant majority of that program, we will execute with the Sierra team.
Josh Sullivan (Managing Director)
Got it. And then just as far as the new Thanatos or Athena customer that you mentioned in the opening remarks, are you able to say if that customer is a government service branch or another defense contractor?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
I am not able to say. I'm sorry.
Josh Sullivan (Managing Director)
Got it. All right. Thank you for the time.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
All right.
Operator (participant)
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Joe Gomez with Noble Capital. Your line is open.
Joe Gomes (Senior Research Analyst)
Congrats on the quarter, and thanks for taking my questions.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Hey, Joe. Good afternoon.
Joe Gomes (Senior Research Analyst)
Good afternoon. So, Eric, you just, in the previous question, you were talking about geopolitically. I was just wondering, you know, on the great quarter you just posted, you know, the events over in Ukraine, is that helping boost the revenues for you guys? Have you seen anything material coming from there?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
I can't comment on what we're doing over there. I'm sorry.
Joe Gomes (Senior Research Analyst)
No worries. And then, if we put aside, you know, the continuing resolution and the labor issues for a moment, you know, what else do you see as kind of the biggest challenges to achieving the growth you're hoping for in 2024?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Putting aside tactical drones, so just talking our base, our base case, and putting aside people, which is number one, two, and three, our operational challenge right now. It's, we have to build a lot of stuff. Our space team has to do a lot of software delivery of OpenSpace. It's just a lot. We are ramping across the company, and with ramp, comes risk and challenge. And so just the ramping, we have to get those engine factories set up. I mean, we've got to do that. We've got to do it seamlessly, efficiently. We've got to make sure we do it in conjunction with the applicable program office. So just those types of operational execution types of things are the biggest drivers.
And then I'll say this one, I don't see it being an issue, but I want to mention it. Specifically in our space business, that's an international business, and they've got some very big, well-known customers across the globe that are existing customers, that we have some large and mid-sized proposals in on. If those get delayed two or three months here, two or three months there, that could move some things out of next year into 25. That could be a risk, too. Totally outside of our control, but that kind of stuff happens internationally.
Joe Gomes (Senior Research Analyst)
Right. And one last one for me on Sierra acquisition. I think they're based at an air airport in California there. And I was wondering, you know, is there opportunities to do some of the same things there as you do in Oklahoma? Is that could be a potential additional benefit to that acquisition?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
That, Joe, that's a great question. The facility is in Tehachapi, and it is actually on the runway. It's on the airbase with the hangars. Absolutely, unequivocally, that was a strategic element of our plan here.
Joe Gomes (Senior Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks, Eric. Appreciate it.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
All right, thank you.
Operator (participant)
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global. Your line is open.
Pete Skibitski (Director)
Hey, good afternoon, guys. Eric, can you help me understand the nuances to the extent you're able to on Replicator a little bit more? Because you mentioned in your remarks Replicator being distinct from Air Force CCA, but I thought Replicator wasn't really a, you know, a funded program of record. I thought it was more so kind of a, I don't know, a concept or kind of an umbrella program. What's the right way to think about that?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Right. Replicator is not a program of record. Replicator is an initiative. That is what, Secretary Hicks calls it, and Shyu, Heidi Shyu, an initiative. It is, it is part of the Office of the Secretary of Defense. It is going to be managed by the Defense Innovation Unit out of Silicon Valley. And who is in charge of it, I believe, is the Vice Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. That is the ultimate decision maker. I believe that is what has been reported. I believe that Air Force officials have very clearly stated Replicator is completely separate from their CCA program. I believe that's been reported. These are two complete initiatives, and the, I believe it's been publicly reported also, that some people involved with Replicator have said that they've identified the funding. I know something about this.
That's why I'm choosing my words very carefully. They've identified the funding and how they want to deploy thousands of these in the next few years. That's how I would frame it up. They've talked about the RDER funds. I mentioned the RDER funds, the RDER funds. You should take a look at that. That's a tidbit that is out there on this. And there are some other ones where you can connect the dots, and I think you can see where the money's coming from.
Pete Skibitski (Director)
Okay. But I guess most importantly, it's not a program of record, but there's money behind it, which, I guess, is what matters.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
That is what OSD is saying. Absolutely.
Pete Skibitski (Director)
Okay, okay. Last one for me, just on this, Powered JDAM. I guess your press release was the first time I heard about that. But are we kind of early days in development of Powered JDAM, and maybe it'll be a few years before a production would start? Is that the right way to think about that?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
You can see I'm. If you could see me, buddy, I'm smiling ear to ear. I cannot get ahead of our Boeing partner. I cannot. However, we're standing up a production factory, as I mentioned, to do some things, and I'll leave it at that.
Pete Skibitski (Director)
Okay, fair enough. Thanks so much.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Okey-dokey.
Operator (participant)
One moment for our next question. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director)
Good afternoon, guys. Thank you. I know it was somewhat asked, but I wanted to get into more detail. Eric, can you talk about, you know, the tactical drone programs showing some of the biggest promise here, Valkyrie, Mako, and Airwolf? Can you just talk about potential scenarios for 24 on those three programs?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Yeah, the potential scenarios I'm comfortable talking about, Sheila, is we will continue to work with our customers in test and evaluation and mission development, flights, and scenarios. And that is what we modeled in for 2023, and it worked out, and that is what we're gonna model in in our base case 2024. That we will continue to sell drones, 2 here, 3 there, 4 here, for test and evaluation, RDT&E, and S&T. But no, we will not assume any production until it happens.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director)
Cool. And then Thanatos, you had, you know, you had an image in the press release on that one, and Athena, I think you brought back. You haven't talked about those two, I think, since August 2022. So maybe just, you know, what brought those back into the fold and just near-term milestones there?
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Yep, good question. Customer interest. That, Sheila, it's that, it's what that's what it is. It's customer interest and customer funding. And as I said, we're in contract negotiations slash discussions. I'm confident these will turn into contract awards mid-next year or so. Confident. And then we're gonna go fly under funded contracts.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director)
Awesome.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Your question is indicative of there's a lot going on, and it's accelerating in the low cost and attritable drone area, and I believe it's because of what's going on in the world.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director)
That's great. Thank you, Eric.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
Yep.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. That concludes the question and answer session. At this time, I would like to turn it back to Eric DeMarco for closing remarks.
Eric DeMarco (President and CEO)
We appreciate you all joining us this afternoon and your interest and support in the company, and we'll be, we'll be chatting with you after we close out the year. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.