Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

KT

Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (KYMR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered a material top-line surprise driven by a $20M Sanofi collaboration milestone: Collaboration revenue was $22.1M vs Wall Street consensus of $10.7M; EPS was -$0.82 vs -$0.91 consensus. Bold beat on both revenue and EPS, primarily from milestone recognition and lower-than-expected loss per share . Revenue Consensus Mean and EPS Consensus Mean from S&P Global.*
  • Liquidity strengthened: cash, cash equivalents and investments were $775.5M, and management extended the cash runway into the first half of 2028, enabling execution across multiple clinical inflection points .
  • Strategic portfolio focus: company introduced KT-579 (IRF5) with Phase 1 planned for early 2026, and exited TYK2 (KT-295) to prioritize STAT6 and IRF5; FY25 execution pivot is a key narrative change and potential stock catalyst alongside upcoming readouts .
  • Near-term catalysts: June 2025 KT-621 (STAT6) Phase 1 healthy volunteer data; Phase 1b AD patient data in 4Q25; Sanofi KT-474 Phase 2b primary completion HS 1H26/AD mid-2026. These events frame estimate revisions and positioning into year-end .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Robust revenue beat via collaboration milestone recognition; collaboration revenue $22.1M included the majority of a $20M Sanofi milestone recognized in Q1 2025, delivering an upside surprise to consensus . Revenue Consensus Mean from S&P Global.*
  • Portfolio progress and pipeline expansion: completion of KT-621 Phase 1 healthy volunteer trial with data slated for June; initiation of the Phase 1b AD “BroADen” study ahead of schedule; launch of KT-579 IRF5 degrader program with Phase 1 targeted for early 2026 .
  • Management conviction and execution: “We are making tremendous progress across our programs and approaching key near term inflection points,” said CEO Nello Mainolfi, highlighting urgency and confidence around STAT6 and IRF5 .

What Went Wrong

  • Operating intensity increased: R&D expenses rose to $80.3M (vs $48.8M YoY) and total operating expenses reached $96.5M, sustaining a sizable operating loss (-$74.4M), reinforcing burn dynamics despite revenue upside .
  • TYK2 program discontinued: despite a clean IND-enabling package, KT-295 will not advance; management cited resource prioritization toward STAT6 and IRF5—this removes a potential 2025 clinical readout and narrows optionality in TYK2-driven diseases .
  • Sequential revenue still dependent on collaboration timing: prior quarters (Q3/Q4 2024) posted lower collaboration revenues ($3.7M/$7.4M), underscoring volatility in top-line driven by milestone recognition rather than recurring product sales .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Collaboration Revenue ($USD Millions)$3.741 $7.394 $22.100
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$60.410 $71.818 $80.255
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)$15.455 $16.331 $16.271
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$75.865 $88.149 $96.526
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)-$72.124 -$80.755 -$74.426
Total Other Income ($USD Millions)$9.637 $10.002 $8.845
Net Loss ($USD Millions)-$62.487 -$70.753 -$65.581
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.82 -$0.88 -$0.82
Weighted Avg Shares (Millions)76.126 79.987 80.147
Actual vs ConsensusQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue (Actual $USD Millions)$3.741 $7.394 $22.100
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)*$10.337$14.814$10.734
EPS (Actual $USD)-$0.82 -$0.88 -$0.82
EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)*-$0.845-$0.788-$0.910
Revenue – # of Estimates*161817
EPS – # of Estimates*131614

*Estimates and consensus values retrieved from S&P Global.

Revenue CompositionQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Collaboration Revenue (Sanofi) ($USD Millions)$3.741 $7.394 $22.100
KPIsQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Investments ($USD Millions)$911.005 $850.903 $775.485
Deferred Revenue ($USD Millions)$20.024 $13.576 $11.476
Operating Lease Liabilities ($USD Millions)$85.144 $84.017 $82.863
Total Stockholders’ Equity ($USD Millions)$892.930 $835.619 $786.233
Cash Runway GuidanceMid-2027 Mid-2027 1H 2028

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
KT-621 Phase 1 Healthy Volunteer SAD/MAD DataJun 2025“1H25; complete SAD/MAD in June 2025” “June 2025 webcast for full SAD/MAD data” Maintained/Confirmed
KT-621 Phase 1b AD Initiation2Q25“Initiate in 2Q25” “Initiated; first patient dosed in April” Pulled forward/achieved
KT-621 Phase 1b AD Data4Q25“4Q25” “4Q25” Maintained
KT-621 Phase 2b Start (AD)4Q25“4Q25” “4Q25” Maintained
KT-621 Phase 2b Start (Asthma)1Q26“1Q26” “1Q26” Maintained
KT-295 TYK2 Phase 1 Start2Q25“Start 2Q25” “Strategic decision not to advance KT-295” Withdrawn
KT-579 IRF5 Phase 1 StartEarly 2026“New program to be announced early May” “KT-579 named; Phase 1 early 2026” New guidance
KT-474 Phase 2b Primary Completion (HS/AD)2026“HS 1H26; AD mid-2026” “HS 1H26; AD mid-2026” Maintained
Cash RunwayN/A“Runway into mid-2027” “Runway into 1H 2028” Raised/Extended

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 & Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
R&D Execution – STAT6IND cleared; Phase 1 HV initiated; data 1H25 Phase 1 HV completed; June readout; Phase 1b AD initiated ahead of plan Accelerating execution
Pipeline PrioritizationShift focus to immunology; oncology beyond Phase 1 only with partner Exit TYK2; intensify focus on STAT6 franchise and new IRF5 program Narrowed/prioritized
Partnerships (Sanofi)Expansion to Phase 2b dose-ranging; timelines to mid-2026 $20M milestone achieved; trials ongoing (HS 1H26, AD mid-2026) Strengthened validation
Liquidity/RunwayCash $911M; runway into mid-2027 Cash $775M; runway extended to 1H 2028 Longer runway despite spend
New Program DisclosureTeased new undrugged target (early May) KT-579 IRF5 unveiled; Phase 1 early 2026 Portfolio expansion
Clinical Development StrategyPlan sentinel Phase 2b (AD/asthma) Reaffirm parallel Phase 2b with dose selection for broad Phase 3s Consistent strategy

Management Commentary

  • CEO strategic framing: “We are making tremendous progress across our programs and approaching key near term inflection points… we recently initiated… patient dosing in the KT-621 BroADen Phase 1b study, with data in the fourth quarter of this year.”
  • On focus and runway: “This strategic prioritization also extends our runway from mid-2027 into the first half of 2028, well beyond multiple important catalysts across our pipeline.”
  • On KT-579’s potential: “IRF5… has strong genetic and clinical pathway validation… targeting IRF5 can lead to correcting immune dysregulation… while generally sparing normal cells.”
  • Development cadence (STAT6): “The Phase 1a healthy volunteer SAD/MAD study has been completed… primary objective is to show we can robustly degrade STAT6 in blood and skin… we expect to report the Phase 1b data in the fourth quarter.”

Q&A Highlights

  • STAT6 degradation targets and clinical endpoints: Management aims for ~90% STAT6 degradation in blood and skin, expecting “dupilumab-like” biomarker and clinical effects even in 4-week AD study; Phase 2b dose-ranging will map degradation to outcomes .
  • TYK2 discontinuation rationale: Resource reallocation to higher probability programs (STAT6, IRF5); competitive intensity in TYK2 raised the bar; IRF5 viewed as more differentiated with lower competition .
  • IRF5 safety and efficacy profile: Cell- and context-specific expression reduces broad immunosuppression risk; retains IRF3/IRF7-driven antiviral responses; preclinical efficacy comparable or better than multiple SOCs in lupus/RA models .
  • Potential breadth and combo strategy: IRF5 could act like a “multi-biologic” in a single oral agent due to its pathway coverage; optionality to combine across Kymera’s pipeline if needed, though single-agent activity expected .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 beat: Revenue $22.1M vs $10.734M consensus; EPS -$0.82 vs -$0.910 consensus—driven primarily by recognition of a $20M Sanofi milestone and controlled OPEX relative to expectations . Revenue Consensus Mean and EPS Consensus Mean from S&P Global.*
  • Prior quarters: Q4 2024 missed revenue ($7.394M vs $14.814M*) and missed EPS (-$0.88 vs -$0.788*), reflecting lower milestone timing; Q3 2024 missed revenue ($3.741M vs $10.337M*) but modest EPS beat (-$0.82 vs -$0.845*) . Estimates from S&P Global.*
  • Implications: Consensus models likely to lift near-term collaboration revenue assumptions and lower EPS losses for Q2 on milestone timing; forward revisions will pivot to catalysts (June HV data; 4Q25 AD) rather than recurring top-line given biotech profile .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue/EPS beat largely milestone-driven; do not extrapolate recurring revenue, but recognize the cash benefit and OPEX-funded execution runway into 1H 2028 .
  • Portfolio focus is the story: TYK2 discontinuation removes near-term readout risk and reallocates resources to STAT6 and IRF5, likely improving program velocity and probability of success .
  • Near-term binary catalysts: June KT-621 HV data and 4Q25 AD Phase 1b—watch for ≥90% STAT6 degradation in blood/skin and dupilumab-like biomarker/clinical effects to drive estimate and valuation changes .
  • Sanofi partnership remains a validation pillar: $20M milestone achieved and Phase 2b timelines intact (HS 1H26; AD mid-2026), supporting optionality and external confidence .
  • Liquidity sufficient to reach multiple data readouts without financing: $775.5M cash and extended runway reduce dilution risk through 2026 catalysts .
  • IRF5 represents a potentially first-in-class oral mechanism with broad rheumatology autoimmunity applicability; preclinical data suggest efficacy superior or comparable to SOCs with a favorable safety rationale .
  • Trading lens: Expect stock to be sensitive to June HV readout quality, Phase 1b AD biomarker/clinical signals, and continued portfolio execution; narrative skew positive on first-in-class oral degraders if clinical translation mirrors preclinical .