Lithium Argentina - Earnings Call - Q3 2025
November 10, 2025
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Thank you for standing by. My name is Jill, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Lithium Argentina Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call and scoping study results. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kelly O'Brien, Vice President, Investor Relations. You may begin.
Kelly O'Brien (VP of Investor Relations)
Thank you for the introduction. I want to welcome everyone to our conference call this morning. Joining me on the call today to discuss PPG Scoping Study and the Q3 results is Sam Pigott, President and CEO of Lithium Argentina. We are also happy to welcome to the call Wang Xiaoshen, Chief Executive Officer of Ganfeng Group, Carlos Galli, Vice President of Growth and Innovation at Lithium Argentina, and Jason Luo, President of Ganfeng South America, to discuss the Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes, or PPG, consolidated project. Alex Shulga, Vice President and CFO of Lithium Argentina, will also be available for Q&A. Before we begin, I would like to cover a few items. Our third quarter 2025 earnings and the PPG Scoping Study results were press released earlier this morning, and the corresponding documents are available on Lithium Argentina's website.
I remind you that some of the statements made during this call, including any production guidance, expected company performance, update on the PPG development plan, the timing of our projects, and market conditions, may be considered forward-looking statements. Please note the cautionary language about forward-looking statements in our presentation, MD&A, and news releases. I will now turn the call over to Sam Pigott.
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Good morning, everyone. We have a lot to discuss today. We'll start quickly with third quarter results and want to recognize the incredible work of the global team that continues to collaborate and contribute to the success of the Cauchari-Olaroz operation. The third quarter saw continued execution and the impact from our ongoing efforts to optimize our production plan, increase efficiencies in our process, and make improvements designed to bring down costs long term. We remain confident in meeting our targets for 2025. While there is still work to do to complete these optimization efforts, we are very pleased with the plant's performance, where we are seeing production rates of 90% capacity sustained over extended periods of time. In October, we achieved a new record monthly production volume, reaching close to full capacity.
As we look towards 2026, our goal is to continue to sustain higher production levels while also taking long-term actions to best position the business for the years to come. On the balance sheet, we were pleased to announce the new $130 million six-year debt facility from Ganfeng. This new facility gives us added flexibility to enhance our debt profile at the corporate level while preserving shareholder value. Finally, and what matters most, is that the operation continues to perform safely and reliably, with a committed team driving continuous improvements. I want to pause on what's been one of the most important drivers of our progress: the strong performance at Cauchari-Olaroz, and that's our collaborative partnership. Together, Lithium Argentina and Ganfeng have built a highly successful joint venture in Argentina.
With just under $1 billion in capital investment, we've established one of the largest and most efficient new lithium operations globally, with a shared goal of supplying lithium chemicals to a diversified global customer base. If you look at the production profile on this slide, you can see the strength of our execution. Within 12 months following the completion of the lithium chemical plant, we were able to steadily increase production, reaching close to our targeted capacity. That reflects the quality of our resources, team, and collaborative partnership with Ganfeng. With that, I would like to turn it over to Ganfeng CEO Wang Xiaoshen to provide his perspective on our partnership and shared vision for Argentina.
Wang Xiaoshen (CEO)
Thank you, Sam. We're proud about our eight-year partnership with Lithium Argentina and look forward to growing with PPG. The new joint venture will build on our existing relationship and new technologies to bring low-cost growth in Argentina. We continue to expand in Argentina, reflecting our confidence in its high-quality resources, experienced local workforces, and improved investment framework with RIGI. We expect Cauchari-Olaroz to continue to lower costs and use new technologies to grow, while PPG will be one of the largest and the lowest-cost lithium operations globally. We see an important opportunity for brines where we can apply mature technologies from China to high-quality resources in Argentina to reduce costs and minimize environmental impact. Our plan in Argentina is to grow from our existing 60,000 tons of capacity today from Cauchari-Olaroz and the Mariana to over 250,000 tons.
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Following the receipt of the environmental permits at PPG last week, and as we begin to prepare our RIGI filings for Stage 2 in PPG, we expect these growth plans to become a bigger focus for the company. Turning to PPG, we are excited to share the results of our scoping study. The project is located in Salta Province in northern Argentina and benefits from access to infrastructure, energy, and local talent, and is located approximately 100 km from Cauchari-Olaroz. While we agreed to consolidate these three projects in August, the scoping study builds off approximately three years of collaborative partnership with Ganfeng. What makes this project especially compelling is that it combines scale, a proven partnership, and technological innovation. These are essential components for successful project execution.
Turning to the details of the PPG Scoping Study, we reiterate the project's scale and economics, which all support PPG becoming one of the most competitive lithium operations globally. The study outlines a stage one LCE capacity of 50,000 tons per year, expanding to 150,000 tons per year in three phases. Initial capital investment is estimated at $1.1 billion, and total life-of-mine capital is estimated at $3.3 billion. These results confirm the benefits of an integrated PPG as a scalable, low-cost, long-life operation.
PPG produces a strong after-tax NPV of $8.2 billion at an 8% discount rate and an IRR of 33% based on a long-term price of $18,000 per ton, a level well supported by long-term market fundamentals. It's important to note that even at a very conservative price estimate of $12,000 per ton, close to market prices today, the IRR of the project is still over 20%.
The lithium market continues to evolve, but one constant remains: strong, sustained demand driving the need for new, high-quality supply. Benchmark estimates that over the next decade, roughly 1 million tons of new LCE capacity will be required to meet global demand. This sustained demand supports long-term pricing levels necessary to incentivize new project development. Based on the current project pipeline, a price of approximately $18,000 per ton of lithium carbonate would be required to achieve a 15% return for this new supply. For PPG, as with Cauchari, the combination of attractive capital intensity and low operating costs provides additional flexibility, ensuring that the projects remain well positioned across a range of market scenarios. I'll now turn it over to Xiaoshen to comment further on market conditions.
Wang Xiaoshen (CEO)
At Ganfeng, we see shifts in the lithium market driven by demand for LFP from ESS. Ganfeng's battery business is running at full capacity. We think the industry is in the early phases of ESS and believe that this could become as big or bigger market than the EV market in the future. At Ganfeng, we are well positioned with low-cost lithium resources as well as battery production. We are the largest fully vertically integrated lithium producer and, as a result, have established a long-term relationship with leading industry players across the EV battery supply chain, which gives helpful insights and competitive advantage. We have always taken a long-term view of the market, and for this reason, we have been focused on low-cost resources in Argentina.
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Lithium Argentina brings more than two decades of experience in Argentina, advancing projects from exploration through to production. In 2024, the Argentine government implemented the RIGI program to attract long-term investment by offering a predictable and competitive fiscal framework. To date, more than $33 billion in new projects have applied under RIGI, with roughly 40% already approved. For PPG, this framework represents a meaningful value driver, providing competitive incentives and, importantly, greater clarity on foreign exchange regulations that are critical to securing lower-cost capital. Following the receipt of the stage one environmental permit last week, we plan to formally submit our RIGI application for PPG during the first half of 2026. I'll now turn it over to Jason Luo, President of Ganfeng South America, to discuss PPG's targeted cost profile in more detail.
Jason Luo (President)
Thanks, Sam. Sam's comments describe the competitiveness of PPG when we combine a good brine asset, processing expertise, and experience in Argentina to deliver both low capital intensity and competitive operating cost. On the left, you can see the breakdown of stage one capital cost. The total investment is about $1.1 billion for a 50,000-ton operation. Roughly 41% of that is tied to the process plant, including DLE. Here, we are able to build in modules of 10,000 tons and leverage our supply chain and expertise in China.
Next, around 30% goes into wells and evaporation ponds. Here, both Ganfeng and LAR have significant experience building and operating pumps from Mariana in Salta and at the nearby Cauchari-Olaroz. Finally, 22% is for the infrastructure: power, roads, and tailings facilities. For comparison, stage one at Cauchari-Olaroz was completed for just under $1 billion.
So this represents a comparable scale-up of an operation with similar brines and the benefits of new processing technologies to reduce the overall size of pumps and processing needs. For all three stages, it's estimated that the total 150,000 tons will require a total capital investment of approximately $3.3 billion placed over several years. On the operating cost structure, PPG is expected to be similar to where Cauchari-Olaroz is today, at around $5,000 per ton. We continue to look for ways to optimize and lower this cost further by leveraging synergies with our existing operations in Argentina, processing efficiencies, and scale.
What's important here is that those numbers aren't just competitive. They are based on our proven operating experience, new technology, optimized pumps to plant integration, and efficient reagent use. All this keeps both capital and operating costs competitive. We are maintaining flexibility across different lithium price environments.
Carlos Galli, VP of Growth and Innovation from Lithium Argentina, will now discuss the PPG resource.
Carlos Galli (VP of Growth and Innovation)
Thank you, Jason. What makes PPG truly unique is it's part of a connected system fed from two adjacent basins, Pozuelos and Pastos Grandes, each with similar geology, hydrology, and brine chemistry. By combining them, we created a single project with both grade and scale. Over the past three years, our teams have completed one of the most comprehensive exploration programs in the Puna region of Argentina. This, combined with experience from previous owners and collaboration with Ganfeng, we have been able to take advantage of different work and methodologies, including that of the oil and gas industry, which is different from typical mining approach to salars, and our studies incorporate these sophisticated and modern techniques. From this data, we now understand how these two systems evolved and why they complement each other so well.
Pastos Grandes is a large, deep basin that formed around three million years ago, with substantial and real potential depths and along its margins, while Pozuelos, on the other hand, is shallower and wider salar, which has led to higher lithium grades and good brine availability. Together, these two systems host an exceptionally large and well-defined resource: over 15 million tons of measured and indicated LCE resources and an additional 6.7 million in inferred tons. Along with these works done to explore the lithium resources, Lithium Argentina and Ganfeng have deployed significant efforts to gain a unique understanding of the water system in the basin, using innovative and sophisticated methodologies and techniques.
This also brings confidence to the possibility of developing in a sustainable way a large-scale production system. The key takeaway here is that PPG stands on its own as a remarkably strong geological foundation.
This level of technical confidence, combined with basin control, positions us to move rapidly and ultimately to the risk-proof execution during development. This chart really puts the scale of the combined PPG project into perspective. It compares the major lithium brine resources by basins across South America, and you can see how Cauchari-Olaroz and now PPG, both compared here in green, firmly position our JV projects among the largest brine resources globally. It is also one of the few basins that has been largely consolidated. This kind of scale and brine chemistry is what underpins the strong project economics, including low operating costs and low CapEx, and long-term growth potential that was highlighted earlier by Jason. It's what enables us to plan for meaningful stage development with significant expansion potential over time.
It is also worth emphasizing that while Pozuelos and Pastos Grandes appear as morphologically separate basins, our upstream geological work has shown that they are remarkably similar geological histories and brine chemistry. Both were shaped by the same tectonic and hydrological processes, meaning that they effectively evolved as part of a single connected geological system. The shared origin is what makes combining the three projects across these two salinas into one integrated development such a logical and value-driven step, maximizing capital efficiency, enhancing scalability, and de-risking development on a basin-wide scale.
We continue to focus on innovation and process improvement, building on the success of Cauchari-Olaroz while incorporating new technologies for further improving efficiency and sustainability. The new hybrid technology that we are advancing for PPG, as well as for Cauchari Stage 2, removes the requirement for several processing components that are currently used at our stage one operation.
The new design maintains the core advantage of solar evaporation, but it integrates lithium solvent extraction technology to enhance recoveries, reduce water and energy use, and simplify the downstream processing needs. The process at PPG would eliminate several intermediate steps from the Cauchari-Olaroz flowsheet, including liming and post-liming pumps and multiple purification stages. Instead, it introduces a series of closed-loop solvent tanks where lithium is selectively extracted and purified in a more controlled environment. This approach utilizes new DLE technology developed by Ganfeng in China that has been tested on our brines. While this processing technology is new for Argentina, they are mature for China and integrate well given our specific brine characteristics and hybrid approach leveraging benefits of our abundant solar radiation.
In short, the proposed hybrid DLE process combines the proven benefits of evaporation, where it works best, with modern extraction techniques, improving efficiency, reducing environmental impact, and positioning PPG as a next-generation lithium operation.
Jason Luo (President)
Over the course of three distinct phases, we expect PPG to become one of the largest lithium operations globally. We are taking a disciplined staged approach, starting with 50,000 tons per year in Phase I and ultimately expanding to 150,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent as Phase II and III come online. Each phase will build on the next, capitalizing on the synergies of the salars and original projects to achieve significant scale with a target of lowering unit cost and optimizing capital efficiency. The processing plant for all three phases is designed to be built at Pozuelos, leveraging shared infrastructure.
The first phase will use brine from Pozuelos, which is slightly higher grade and advanced in terms of both production wells and permitting. The following phases will bring in concentrated brine from the larger Cauchari-Olaroz resource as well as water necessary to support our larger scale plants. Together, by consolidating and integrating the three projects, this provides significant synergies and allows us to optimize for much larger and efficient production scale. As we transition towards execution, our focus is on maintaining a disciplined path towards construction, leveraging our learning from Cauchari-Olaroz and Mariana. We are very pleased to have received environmental approval for stage one of PPG on Friday. This is a critical milestone that requires a rigorous 14-month review and proves that the PPG project meets the highest environmental and social standards required in Argentina.
We engaged early with provincial regulators in Salta and communities on PPG, ensuring that our studies and designs and new technology meet or exceed both Argentina and international standards. All of those steps put us in a strong position to be able to start stage one construction in the second half of 2026 and allow us to achieve first production before 2030.
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Thanks, Jason. As we wrap up, we're excited to begin sharing more details and increasing our focus on long-term growth. This does not change our near-term priorities: disciplined execution at stage one and prudent management of our balance sheet. But as we advance our RIGI filings, we see this as a critical step in outlining Lithium Argentina and Ganfeng's shared vision and long-term value proposition in Argentina. On PPG, with the receipt of environmental approvals, we will now work closely to further optimize our plans, de-risk our execution strategy, and finalize an updated hydrogeological model, integrating resources across both basins. In parallel, Lithium Argentina and Ganfeng are advancing a coordinated financing strategy designed to support the next phase of growth. As we move forward, we'll maintain the same disciplined approach, prioritizing shareholder value, prudent capital allocation, and strong alignment between partners. This is a pivotal moment for our company.
It marks the beginning of a new chapter of disciplined growth, built on the same focus, collaboration, and execution that delivered success at Cauchari-Olaroz.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. If you're called upon to ask a question and are listening via loudspeaker on your device, please pick up your handset and ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question. And we do ask for today's session that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. One moment for your first question. Your first question comes from a line of Joel Jackson of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Joel Jackson (Senior Analyst)
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Good evening to those in Western Australia. I had a question about PPG. So the capital intensity, $22,000 a ton CapEx, is very low. It's like half the capital intensity when you look at public project estimates out of other projects in Argentina, let's say Rio Tinto Rincon or stuff in the States. I was wondering, why is the capital intensity half the CapEx of other greenfield brine projects? And, Xiaoshen, how would you compare the economics of this project, PPG, versus Mariana?
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Thanks for the question, Joel. Maybe I'll start and then pass it over to Xiaoshen. So yeah, the CapEx intensity is much lower than recent examples of chemical processing outside of China. I think part of the explanation here is driven by the quality of the resource. So the first phase of Pozuelos is benefiting from considerably higher grades, upwards of high 500 milligrams per liter lithium, so most similar to Cauchari-Olaroz. The CapEx also reflects the use of new processing technologies, which Xiaoshen can elaborate on, including SX-based DLE, which is designed and built in modular units, engineered and constructed in China, with the support, obviously, of Ganfeng. So this technology is designed to help reduce plant footprint and simplify purification requirements. So I think those are the two major drivers towards the CapEx intensity.
But, Xiaoshen, maybe you can elaborate on that and then also share your experience with Mariana and Cauchari.
Wang Xiaoshen (CEO)
Yeah, thank you. Thank you, Sam. Yeah, you're right. Actually, if you look at our projects everywhere in the world, actually, we have a relatively lower CapEx density compared with other Western companies' projects. So that's because of the Ganfeng's. We have our own in-house engineering team, and we have an in-house process. So that's probably one of the reasons. And also, we have built two projects in Argentina, which is not an easy place. They have lots of challenges, especially you don't have the existing human resources for these lithium projects in the region. So we are bringing some of the talents from China and, together with our local teams, successfully to projects.
Joel Jackson (Senior Analyst)
Okay. Oh.
Wang Xiaoshen (CEO)
Yeah. And to your question about comparison between Mariana and PPG, I would say PPG has a higher concentration of the lithium. Mariana has a lower, but Mariana has a much higher pumping rate. So each one has their own advantage. And so both projects are good projects.
Joel Jackson (Senior Analyst)
Okay. And then following up from that, and either with Cauchari-Olaroz as well, I believe at some point in 2026, you're going to test this hybrid pond plus DLE system with a small plant at Cauchari-Olaroz. I think it's 2026. And can you talk about, as you progress PPG here, will you wait for results on that pilot or demo plant at Cauchari-Olaroz to learn what it looks like in Argentine brine before you move out of PPG so you get more refined estimates for PPG and see how it affects Cauchari-Olaroz as well? Thanks.
Wang Xiaoshen (CEO)
Yeah, I don't think we have to wait. We don't need to wait. Sorry, Sam. Go ahead, please.
Sam Pigott (CEO)
No, I was just going to say the demo plants obviously have a really important de-risking step for this new technology being incorporated into our production process, both at Stage 2 and PPG. But clearly, we expect this to be done in a way that will integrate with the broader construction timeline. But, Xiaoshen, maybe go ahead and you can share on the confidence Ganfeng has in this technology and what's been done in China.
Wang Xiaoshen (CEO)
Yeah, we have a commercial project in China using these DLE technologies already. Many times test on the PPG brines. So we think PPG brine, we don't have to wait until the final results from the Cauchari projects, the DLE projects. Maybe Jason, you have anything to add?
Jason Luo (President)
Yeah, Jason, just as you said, it's a proven technology. And so we don't have to wait for the demonstration plant from Cauchari. And actually, this is a hybrid. This is a hybrid process combined with ponds and the solvent extraction. So the solvent extraction process is proven in China in commercial scale. And also, actually, it's a more simplified process. And I would say technically, it's even simpler and straightforward. So yeah, we are going to just go ahead to start the construction once we have the permitting, financing, and other things ready on Cauchari and PPG project.
Joel Jackson (Senior Analyst)
Okay. Thank you. I'll go back into queue.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from a line of Katie Lachapelle of Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open.
Katie Lachapelle (Managing Director of Equity Research of Metals and Mining)
Hi, all. Thanks for taking my questions. First off, congrats on the release of the scoping study and the environmental approvals. I was just wondering if you could provide a more detailed overview of the permitting of the asset, what additional permits, if any, are required. And then maybe with having Jason on the call, I'd love to hear his vision about the progression of the PPG project and how you guys balance priorities going forward, PPG versus Cauchari-Olaroz Phase II.
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Thanks, Katie. Maybe I'll take the second part of that question and then turn it over to Jason to comment on permitting. I think from a sequencing perspective, the fact that both these projects are right-sized for market needs, low cost, being driven forward by a proven operating team in Argentina, and so for both, we're advancing similar RIGI application timelines, which is the first half of next year. From a development standpoint, we expect these projects to be broadly comparable, each with distinct advantages, so for PPG, obviously, it's further ahead. The permit was secured last Friday, and it also benefits from very significant historical investments that Ganfeng's carried out on wellfield infrastructure and then further benefits from the advantages of Pozuelos being considerably higher grade. I'd say for Cauchari-Olaroz, we're obviously also advancing a RIGI application.
We expect to have a development plan similar to that for PPG first half of next year, and we'll provide more visibility on the sequencing into 2026. But as a general statement, we're confident both assets provide meaningful flexibility and optionality to both Lithium Argentina and Ganfeng. The how and the when of this growth is underpinned by responsibility to our shareholders and maximizing shareholder value, so maybe Jason, answering the first part of the question, which was related to permitting and what else is required to push ahead with the PPG project.
Jason Luo (President)
Yeah, Sam. Yes. For starting construction of PPG, of course, the most important in Salta province is to obtain the approval of the DIA, which is the environmental permit, and Sam said we obtained that approval last Friday. We submit the DIA application in September 2024. It takes us like 14 months to walk through the technical approval and environmental approval and also the community consultation and finally public hearing, so 14 months. You can see it's like a record, like a fast approval procedure, and we have achieved compared with other peers in this region. We can see this project is technically sound and well received and supported by the local government and the communities. Looking forward, what else? What other permits do we need? Actually, with this, we can start the construction immediately.
But there are two more things that are important that we need to obtain. One is, as Sam said, we need to apply for the RIGI. And we are working on that. We started the communication with the national government already. So the RIGI application will be submitted in Q1 next year. And we anticipate it won't take long to be approved, maybe a few months by estimation. That is one thing.
With that, we can start the construction of the project. And one more thing is we need also to obtain the water permit. And so that's like we are already working on the water balance, and we just need to drill more water wells. And because this soil extraction process will require much less water consumption, so we don't see the problem. Compared with other processes, the water consumption is the lowest.
So that's like two more things we need for PPG project on the permit side.
Katie Lachapelle (Managing Director of Equity Research of Metals and Mining)
Okay. Great. Very clear guys. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from a line of Ben Isaacson of Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Ben Isaacson (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Thank you very much, and good morning. I have a few quick ones, if that's okay. So the first question is the overall CapEx for PPG is $3.3 billion for all three phases, exactly one-third of that for the first phase. I would have thought there would be some economies of scale, and Phase I would be a little more expensive, and two and three would be a little lower. Can you just talk about that?
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Thanks, Ben. Yeah, the CapEx for the entire project in each Phase represents the benefits of scale, but the brine characteristics do change over time. So the CapEx for Phase I does incorporate infrastructure expenditures that will extend across all three phases. But then to go to Phase II and Phase III, which will be sourcing brine from Pastos Grandes, it comes at a lower concentration. And therefore, the number of wells and the size of the ponds increase. So there is a bit of a trade-off there, and that explains the.
Ben Isaacson (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Great. That makes sense.
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Sorry. The second point is on the SX plant itself. This is done in a modular unit, so you don't see the same kind of economies of scale you would see in other projects.
Ben Isaacson (Managing Director of Equity Research)
That's helpful. Thanks, Sam, for that one. Moving on, Cauchari-Olaroz, I believe JEMSE has what, an 8.5% interest. What is the likelihood that Salta would somehow require some stake? And is there a negotiation on that? And how should we think about the dilution impact of that?
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Maybe Jason, if you want to take that one.
Jason Luo (President)
Yes, Sam. So yeah, we know Salta province; they have no intention at all to negotiate a stake. And we didn't even touch that point. And we have good communication with the provincial government. And we didn't see the provincial government of Salta wanting to bring that up to any lithium projects or mining projects in Salta so far.
Ben Isaacson (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Great. And then I'll just switch quickly to Q3. So your cash costs were just a touch higher, about 3% higher to about $6,300. Production was a couple hundred tons lower. Can you just talk about, had production been stable, would the cash costs have been flat? Why did the cash costs increase? And why did production take a little dip down? Thank you.
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Yeah. I mean, the two are very much related. So we had slightly lower 200 tons less production than Q2. So that does increase unit costs. I think from a production standpoint, we're still making optimization changes. These are small, but from a month-to-month basis, do increase some variability. I'd say the optimization efforts that we've made in Q3 or sorry, Q2 have delivered. So three and the last four months, we've been operating above 90% capacity. And obviously, when we're pushing volumes up, we see kind of a relation to cost coming down. So on the cost side, yes, slightly higher than Q2, largely due to the slightly less volume, but we're seeing costs continue to trend down.
Ben Isaacson (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Great, and if I can just throw one last one in there, so just back to the PPG project. Can you just talk about, Sam, how do you envision minimizing equity dilution risk for large shareholders in terms of the capital structure and funding your one-third portion of Phase I of PPG? Thank you.
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Yeah. I would highlight that Lithium Argentina has a pretty strong track record of executing strategic and disciplined financings, and so if you look at, for example, how we funded the $1 billion investment into stage one, we did this thoughtfully. We leveraged partnerships, off-takes, project-level debt to minimize shareholder dilution. We're certainly going to take the same disciplined approach here as we advance our growth plans.
One of the differences today, obviously, is we're doing so from a much stronger position, having successfully brought on stage one into operation, having Argentina's RIGI investment framework, a more mature lithium market, and more specifically at PPG, under our agreement to consolidate these three PPG assets, Ganfeng and LAR have committed to working together to secure third-party capital to finance stage one development costs, and we'll do this by leveraging Ganfeng's global customer relations and access to low-cost financing.
So we're obviously going to be very responsible in terms of how we do this. We see a tremendous amount of value in the projects that we have, and we'll be very disciplined and careful to ensure that shareholders are rewarded and avoid dilution.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Corinne Blanchard of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Corinne Blanchard (Director)
Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Sorry if I missed it, but could you talk about what would be the IRR, the return, if you were to be using market price and then the $18,000 per kilo or per ton? And maybe if you can talk also about the rationale of using the $18,000 given where the market is trading at. Thank you.
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Yeah, the sensitivity is around that. At $12,000 per ton, I think we're close to that today in the spot market in China. The project would have over 20% IRR. I think the rationale for choosing $18,000 is, one, it's aligned with third-party forecasts and street consensus. And it seems to be a level that would seem to be required to incentivize enough production over the next decade. So it's a price level at which would result in a 15% IRR for kind of the last marginal project contributing to that one million tons.
But seeing that we have Wang Xiaoshen on the line, maybe I can turn it over to you, Wang Xiaoshen, and just comment on the use of $18,000 per ton as a long-term price and how that squares with how you're seeing the market today and how you're seeing the lithium market evolving over the next 5 to 10 years. I know it's a difficult question, but I think you're pretty well positioned to provide some perspective.
Wang Xiaoshen (CEO)
Yeah. Thank you, Sam. Yeah. I think if you look at it from the demand side and also the supply side, the demand side still has very strong growth. And not only the EV, but also the energy storage. This is, we see probably in the future, even bigger than EV demands for lithium. So that's one thing from the demand side. From the supply side, we see lots of uncertainty for those projects on the pipeline. And we know the lead time for developing those projects takes quite a longer time. I also talked to some of the people from Chile in Chile to get environmental permits for a new project. At least it takes five years. So that's the reason we think $18,000. I think it's reasonable. It's reasonable for long-term pricing. Even today is still tough.
But if you look at China today, the price has been increased 6%-7% already for the lithium carbonate. So we believe 18 is reasonable. If you also consider there are other companies, new projects in the pipeline, for instance, in Australia and for some other projects in the U.S. or Canada, all those projects, we believe that they probably will require even higher price to incentive them to build those projects. Thank you.
Corinne Blanchard (Director)
Thank you. Maybe if I can ask a second one, just a small one on the Cauchari. What about an update on the material quality? So I know that you still have that discount for purity removal. Can you just talk again what the expectations are in terms of timing to come to a battery grade here? Thank you.
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Yeah. I mean, this year was about operating stability. So we're very pleased with what we're seeing at the plant. There has been some gradual improvement in the quality of the product. And based on the current pricing and reprocessing arrangement we have with Ganfeng, the reprocessing costs are quite low. I think longer-term looking out to back end of 2026, 2027, Ganfeng and LAR are very much aligned in the ability to be able to supply global customers directly. So obviously, that would mean that we would need to deliver battery-grade products. So it's still in the vision. We're not there yet, but we're making gradual improvements towards that goal.
Corinne Blanchard (Director)
Thank you. That's it from me.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from a line of David Deckelbaum of TD Cowen. Your line is open.
David Deckelbaum (Managing Director)
Congrats to everyone. Thanks for taking my questions today. Just curious, just with the PPG phase development approach, it looks like every phase is between four and five years apart from each other. Is that flow sheet constrained, or is that theoretically market and finance constrained? How are you thinking about the timing of phases one, two, and three? It doesn't seem like necessarily there's a change in the assumptions around cadence of bringing projects online post-permitting.
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Thanks for the question. I think it is theoretical and finance constrained. But Jason, feel free to provide your view.
Jason Luo (President)
Yeah. Yeah, Sam, you made a very good point, and just add a few more. It's technically, and technically, we think it's like we have one team, continue work on one project, finish it, and bring it online, and check everything, ramp it up, and then we move to Phase II. That's more, let's say, it's more like a smooth. So that's just one thing. Another thing is each phase, for each phase, Phase II, Phase III, we also need to obtain the construction permit, and the provincial government would like to see we construct the Phase I first and then move to Phase II and then Phase III. Yes. Thank you.
David Deckelbaum (Managing Director)
Appreciate that, and then, Xiaoshen, if I could ask you a question. You remarked earlier that perhaps you could see that we're in the early stages of ESS, but you think it could be larger than the EV market. Could you provide some more color around that? When do you think that the market is going to see this grand inflection on demand for energy storage, particularly on the lithium side? Is that something that you anticipate in the next decade, or is that something that you think is going to be more impactful sooner?
Wang Xiaoshen (CEO)
Yeah. It probably will be sooner. But even for the EV, today, people only focus on the passenger cars. But actually, China, not only the passenger cars, but the whole kind of transportation now is becoming electrified or going to be electrified in the next several years. If you look at the heavy-duty trucks, this year, the electrical heavy-duty trucks grow more than 100% compared with the same time last year. So we know, of course, energy storage will have a much higher growth rate. But even for the motors, batteries are also growing. And in China, the next several years later will be also other new demands for the boats, for the vessels, will be also electrified. So it's difficult to predict which year energy storage will take over the demands. But we see probably within 10 years, we believe that will come.
David Deckelbaum (Managing Director)
Appreciate the color.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Mohamed Sidibé of National Bank. Your line is open.
Mohamed Sidibé (Equity Reserach Analyst)
Good morning, Sam. Thanks for taking my question. And congrats on the good scoping study here. Just a question in terms of timing, I guess. The targeting construction by the second half of 2026, are there anything on the detailed engineering front that we should be thinking about that are on the critical path that would further de-risk that $1.1 billion CapEx over the next, call it, 6-12 months?
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Thanks for the question. Maybe I'll turn this one over to Jason.
Jason Luo (President)
Yes. So a few factors are very critical on the construction timeline, and one is the engineering. And right now, we pretty much finished all the detailed engineering for the pump and well field area. So that has we will have all the drawings by end of this year, and meanwhile, we are working on the detailed process. The internal in-house engineering team is working on that, and we will have that ready early next year.
So you will see on the engineering side, we are good, and also, another important is the DIA, the construction permit, the environmental permit. We already have it last week, and the next two factors, one is financing. Hopefully, we will have it the first half next year and also RIGI, as we discussed, and we may have that approval by Q2, end of Q2 or early Q3 next year.
Then with all those key points, key milestones, we are ready to start. And that's why we see we are going to start the construction in the second half next year.
Mohamed Sidibé (Equity Reserach Analyst)
Great. Thanks for that. And then maybe a question for both Sam and Wang here. Just in terms of the sequencing of projects, how should we think about Cauchari-Olaroz, Rincon Stage 2, maybe Mariana Stage 2, and PPG stage one in terms of sequencing of projects? Could this be undertaken at the same time, or it's more of a phasing approach for each of them? I want to come in after the other.
Sam Pigott (CEO)
Sure. I'll answer first, but won't comment on Mariana. That's a Ganfeng 100% owned project. Yeah. I mean, for Cauchari-Olaroz Stage 2, the plan right now is to prepare a RIGI application and a development plan to align with that RIGI application, which will be submitted in the first half of 2026. I think, obviously, coming back to one of the questions earlier about just how we're going to finance this, it's important to note that for PPG, we're both looking at third-party capital. Likewise, for Stage 2, I think there are different set of circumstances around options to finance that, given that we have an existing operation for stage one. But underlining it all is the how and the when of growing this. We're going to be extremely responsible for our shareholders. So that's from a financing perspective.
From a team's perspective, I mean, Jason down in Salta, he's built up an incredible team who have just completed Mariana. And it's a separate team to Exar. So I think from a personnel standpoint, we do have a good chance of advancing them in parallel. But obviously, we're going to be able to share a lot more early next year around defining our development plan for Exar and be able to share a lot more in terms of visibility on specific sequencing steps for both projects. I don't know if Jason, you want to share on Mariana. I think there was a question about Stage 2.
Jason Luo (President)
Yeah. Right now, Mariana is still working on the ramp-up stage for stage one. And it's going good. It's been good. And regarding Stage 2, the first thing we want to share is Mariana recently. We just updated the resource estimation. And the resource increased from 8.0 million to 13 million up for more than 60%. And we still have a big potential in the deeper horizon because we didn't drill deep enough.
Right now, most of the wells just reached to 350 meters. And actually, we can drill much deeper. And Mariana is unique because the pumping rig is very big. So the resource is not a bottleneck for Mariana. So yes, indeed, we are planning the expansion Phase II and Phase III. And we plan to put a package and apply for RIGI. We will present that early next year.
And then we were looking at the market condition and also the construction progress of other projects such as PPG and Cauchari. And then we will analyze and finally decide what will be the timeline for the expansion of Stage 2 and stage three for Mariana.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. With no further questions, this concludes our Q&A session. We thank you for your participation. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.