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LITHIUM AMERICAS CORP. (LAC)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 was a construction-heavy, pre-revenue quarter with continued de‑risking at Thacker Pass; EPS of −$0.0567 missed Wall Street consensus of −$0.05 as transaction and advisory fees tied to Orion/FID weighed on results * *.
- Project execution advanced: detailed engineering ~70% complete, first permanent concrete placed, ~300 craft workers onsite, and ~$425M in long‑lead commitments; Phase 1 mechanical completion target remains late 2027 .
- Liquidity remained strong at $509.1M cash/restricted cash; the ATM raised ~$63.6M post quarter‑end and first DOE loan draw is now guided to 2H 2025 (from prior Q3 2025) .
- Near-term stock catalysts: first DOE draw, September first-steel installation, worker ramp to ~1,000 by year-end, and ongoing tariff/supply chain risk mitigation updates .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Thacker Pass execution milestones: permanent concrete placement began in May; structural excavation, foundation prep, and road construction progressing; first steel installation expected in September .
- Engineering and procurement de-risking: detailed engineering ~70% complete at 6/30, targeted >90% by year-end; ~$425M in long-term purchase commitments secured .
- Financing momentum and liquidity: closed Orion investment ($220M initial cash to LAC), JV cash contributions ($191.6M LAC; $100M GM), ATM established and utilized, cash/restricted cash $509.1M at quarter end .
Quote: “We continue to focus on de-risking both the project schedule and capital costs… We continue to target mechanical completion of Phase 1 in late 2027.” — CEO Jonathan Evans .
What Went Wrong
- Earnings miss and higher losses: Q2 EPS missed consensus (−$0.0567 vs −$0.05) as net loss increased driven by closing costs on Orion and advisory fees tied to FID * *.
- DOE first draw timing pushed: guidance shifted from Q3 2025 to “second half of 2025,” introducing schedule risk to funding cadence .
- Tariff/supply chain exposure: management highlighted fluid tariff announcements and potential trade disputes; while ~75% of project cost is labor/services, equipment supply chain remains a watch item .
Financial Results
Quarterly P&L (USD, per quarter)
Notes: Values marked with “*” retrieved from S&P Global.
Six Months Ended June 30 (YoY)
Estimates vs Actuals
Highlights:
- Q1: EPS missed consensus (−$0.0490 vs −$0.04) [GetEstimates]* [GetFinancials]*.
- Q2: EPS missed consensus (−$0.0567 vs −$0.05) [GetEstimates]* [GetFinancials]*.
- Revenue: consensus assumed $0; company remains pre-revenue [GetEstimates]*.
Notes: Values marked with “*” retrieved from S&P Global.
KPIs and Project Execution
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Note: No Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was available in the document set. The table below uses management disclosures from press releases/8-Ks.
Management Commentary
- “Thacker Pass is undergoing noticeable growth every week, and we now have over 300 workers on site… first shipment of steel arrived… expect to begin first steel installation in September.” — Jonathan Evans, President & CEO .
- “We continue to focus on de-risking both the project schedule and capital costs… limiting the effect of any potential tariff or trade disputes on our construction supply chain.” — Jonathan Evans .
- “The Company has resolved or secured judicial dismissal of all legal and regulatory actions… [that] did not materially impact the Company’s financial position or construction schedule.” .
Q&A Highlights
- No Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was available in the document set; the company furnished results via 8‑K and press releases without a transcripted Q&A . Guidance clarifications (e.g., DOE draw timing to 2H 2025) are drawn from the press release .
Estimates Context
- EPS missed in both Q1 and Q2 versus S&P Global consensus: Q1 (−$0.0490 vs −$0.04) and Q2 (−$0.0567 vs −$0.05); revenue expectations remained at $0 with the company pre-revenue [GetEstimates]* [GetFinancials]*.
- Potential estimate revisions: near-term EPS models likely reflect continued construction‑related advisory and financing costs; medium‑term models may tighten around worker ramp, September steel install, and >90% engineering by YE 2025 .
Notes: Values marked with “*” retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Execution remains on track with tangible milestones (concrete placed, steel installation imminent, engineering ~70%) supporting the late‑2027 Phase 1 completion target .
- Liquidity and funding runway are robust (cash/restricted cash $509.1M; ATM proceeds ~$63.6M post‑quarter; DOE loan first draw targeted 2H 2025), though the push from Q3 to 2H introduces timing risk to disbursements .
- The EPS miss is driven by transaction/advisory costs tied to Orion/FID rather than operational underperformance; expect near-term EPS to remain negative during build‑out * *.
- Supply chain/tariff backdrop remains fluid; management’s mitigation efforts and long‑lead commitments (~$425M) help de‑risk execution, but monitoring is warranted .
- Worker ramp (to ~1,000 by YE 2025; ~1,800 at peak) and WFH occupancy in 2H 2025 are critical for achieving peak construction in 2026 — key operational markers to track .
- Upcoming catalysts: September first-steel installation, initial DOE draw, engineering >90% by YE, continued legal/regulatory clean‑up and ESG‑S reporting cadence .
- Medium-term thesis: with funding pillars (DOE/GM/Orion/ATM) in place and execution momentum, LAC’s path to Phase 1 production (40kt/y lithium carbonate) is clearer; valuation sensitivity will hinge on schedule fidelity, capex discipline, and macro lithium pricing into 2027 .