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LA

LITHIUM AMERICAS CORP. (LAC)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • LAC reported no revenue and a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss; Q3 2025 EPS was -$0.0339 versus Wall Street consensus of -$0.0513, a beat of $0.0174, while capitalized construction costs accelerated to $145.9 million *.
  • Financing and liquidity strengthened: first DOE ATVM loan drawdown of $435 million received; DOE loan terms amended to $2.23B total with $184 million of early debt service deferred and warrants to DOE for 5% equity in LAC and 5% economic interest in the JV .
  • Project execution progressed: detailed engineering surpassed 80% (target ~90% by YE25), first steel installed, 700 personnel on-site, and Workforce Hub began occupancy in late September 2025; Phase 1 mechanical completion remains targeted for late 2027 .
  • Equity capital actions completed: May ATM program finished and a new October ATM raised ~$246.4 million net; Orion converted $97.5 million of notes to equity, reducing future interest burden .
  • Stock reaction catalysts: visible de-risking via DOE funding, JV offtake flexibility with GM, tangible construction progress, and ongoing tariff mitigation efforts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • DOE funding milestones: “With the first DOE Loan drawdown… we’ve significantly enhanced the Project’s certainty and stability and are full steam ahead on construction” — CEO Jonathan Evans .
  • Execution momentum: engineering >80%; first steel installed; infrastructure and laydown yards completed; 700 site personnel with Workforce Hub occupancy initiated .
  • EPS beat: Q3 2025 EPS of -$0.0339 beat consensus of -$0.0513, reflecting lower-than-expected quarterly loss and continued tight OpEx discipline in pre-revenue phase [GetEstimates]*.

What Went Wrong

  • Large non-cash loss from embedded derivative: nine-month net loss rose to $223.9M, driven primarily by fair value changes tied to share price moves from $2.76 to $5.71 since April 1, 2025 .
  • Dilution and leverage optics: ATM issuances (26.922M shares under May ATM; 30.525M under October ATM) and DOE warrants (5% LAC, 5% JV) add overhang to equity holders even as they bolster liquidity .
  • Tariff exposure persists for equipment sourced from Canada, China, India, UAE, Turkey and the EU, though LAC notes ~75% of total capital costs are labor/contractors/services not directly affected .

Financial Results

EPS vs Estimates (USD)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Primary EPS Consensus Mean-0.0400*-0.0500*-0.0513*
Actual Diluted EPS-0.0203*-0.0600*-0.0339*
Beat/(Miss) vs Consensus+0.0197*-0.0100*+0.0174*

Note: Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Income Statement and Cash Flow (USD)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Income - (IS)-$10.70M*-$12.45M*-$197.68M*
Operating Income-$6.54M*-$7.85M*-$9.70M*
EBITDA-$6.52M*-$7.84M*-$9.69M*
Cash from Operations-$18.84M*-$30.54M*$2.31M*

Note: Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Balance Sheet and Liquidity (USD)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Cash and Restricted Cash$446.9M $509.1M $385.6M
Total Assets$1,018.5M $1,339.1M $1,451.5M
Total Long-term Liabilities$40.1M $251.5M $452.2M

KPIs and Project Execution

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Capitalized Construction Costs (Quarter)$78.2M $124.8M $145.9M
Detailed Engineering Complete>60% ~70% >80% (target ~90% YE25)
On-site Personneln/a~300 manual craft ~700 total
DOE Loan Drawdownn/an/a$435M (first draw)

Segment breakdown: Not applicable (pre-revenue; single project focus on Thacker Pass) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Phase 1 Mechanical CompletionProject timelineLate 2027 Late 2027 Maintained
On-site Workforce TargetYE 2025~1,000 workers ~1,000 workers Maintained
DOE Loan Total AmountFinancing$2.26B expected $2.23B (principal $1.97B; cap. interest $256M) Lowered
DOE Loan Debt ServiceFirst 5 years repaymentNo deferral disclosed $184M deferred across remaining periods New
DOE WarrantsEquityNone5% LAC + 5% JV economic stake warrants at $0.01 exercise price New
GM Offtake FlexibilityOfftakeNoneJV may enter third-party offtakes for volumes not purchased by GM (first 5 years Phase 1) New
DOE First Draw TimingFinancing2H 2025 expected $435M received Oct 20, 2025 Achieved
ATM ProgramsEquityMay 2025 ATM $100M established [13] May ATM completed; Oct 2025 ATM $250M completed for $246.4M net Raised/Completed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

(Company did not publish an earnings call transcript in our document set for Q3 2025.)

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Supply Chain & Tariffs75% of capital costs are labor/services not directly affected; mitigation efforts ongoing Major equipment sourced from Canada/China/India/UAE/Turkey/EU; tariff exposure acknowledged; mitigation continues Ongoing mitigation; exposure persists
Workforce & HousingWFH modular units installed; first occupancy targeted H2 2025 WFH first phase occupancy permit received; first residents in late Sept 2025 Achieved occupancy; ramping labor
Financing (DOE)First draw expected Q3/Q2 guidance (3Q/2H 2025) First draw $435M; loan reduced to $2.23B; $184M deferral; warrants to DOE Milestone achieved; terms optimized
Engineering Progress>60% complete (Q1) ~70% complete (Q2) >80%; aiming >90% YE25
JV with GMFID announced; JV capital contributions Offtake amendment enables third-party offtake for unpurchased volumes Strengthened JV flexibility
Legal/PermittingLegal actions resolved or dismissed; no material impact Continued permitting/FD risk disclosures De-risked litigation; standard permitting risk remains

Management Commentary

  • “We’re proud to have secured the support of the U.S. Administration, General Motors and our valued partners… contribute to America’s long-term energy security and economic resilience.” — Jonathan Evans, CEO .
  • “With the first DOE Loan drawdown… we’ve significantly enhanced the Project’s certainty and stability and are full steam ahead on construction.” — Jonathan Evans, CEO .
  • “There is excitement amongst our employees, stakeholders and partners… We continue to target mechanical completion of Phase 1 in late 2027.” — Jonathan Evans, CEO (Q2) .
  • “Major construction has commenced… first permanent concrete placement achieved in early May 2025.” — Jonathan Evans, CEO (Q1) .

Q&A Highlights

Not available; an earnings call transcript was not found in the document catalog for Q3 2025.

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 EPS beat: -$0.0339 vs -$0.0513 consensus; limited sell-side coverage (4 EPS estimates) suggests estimates may move higher as pre-revenue OpEx trajectory stabilizes and financing reduces risk profile [GetEstimates]*.
  • Q2 2025 EPS miss: -$0.0600 vs -$0.0500 consensus (2 estimates) likely reflected transaction/advisory costs and fair-value impacts noted in filings *.
  • Q1 2025 EPS beat: -$0.0203 vs -$0.0400 consensus (4 estimates) amid early construction ramp *.
  • Revenue consensus at $0 in each period aligns with pre-revenue development stage; no production revenue expected prior to Phase 1 completion [GetEstimates]*.

Note: Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Financing de-risked: First DOE draw ($435M) and loan amendments (total $2.23B; $184M deferral) materially improve liquidity and project certainty near term .
  • Execution on track: Engineering >80% and first steel installation signal tangible progress; Phase 1 mechanical completion still “late 2027” — continued schedule confidence .
  • EPS trajectory improving vs expectations in Q3; however, non-cash fair value losses (embedded derivative) drove the nine-month loss higher, reminding investors of volatility in financing-related items *.
  • Equity dilution risk persisted (May/Oct ATM programs; DOE warrants), but proceeds and DOE support lower cost of capital and strengthen balance sheet for construction .
  • Tariff exposure manageable: while equipment is sourced globally, ~75% of capital costs are labor/services less sensitive to tariffs; mitigation plans in place .
  • Near-term catalysts: additional DOE draws, third-party offtake arrangements enabled by GM amendment, workforce ramp toward ~1,000 by YE25, and steady engineering milestones .
  • Medium-term thesis: U.S. onshoring of battery-grade lithium via Thacker Pass with JV partner GM positions LAC as a strategic supplier; execution and permitting discipline remain pivotal .

Sources:

  • Q3 results press release and 8-K Item 2.02 (Exhibit 99.1): project, financing, and financial highlights ; .
  • DOE drawdown press release (Oct 20, 2025) .
  • Q2 2025 press release .
  • Q1 2025 press release .

Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global (SPGI).