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LITHIA MOTORS INC (LAD)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered record revenue of $9.18B (+7% YoY) and GAAP diluted EPS of $7.94 (+35% YoY); adjusted diluted EPS was $7.66 (+25% YoY) .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue modestly missed by ~$0.11B (−1.1%) and Primary EPS missed by ~$0.21 (−2.7%); GAAP EPS would have been a small beat, but S&P tracks “Primary EPS” as normalized/adjusted for LAD [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
  • Operating execution improved: adjusted SG&A/GP fell 120 bps YoY to 68.2%; days’ supply reduced to 43 (new) and 45 (used); DFC originations reached $623M with NIM at 4.6% .
  • Capital returns accelerated: dividend increased 4% to $0.55 and ~403K shares were repurchased (1.7% of shares) at a $326 average; authorization remaining ~$669M .
  • Call tone constructive: management highlighted tariff resilience, SG&A trajectory toward mid-50s over time, and balanced deployment (near-term buybacks, ~$2B acquired revs in 2025) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • SG&A discipline and cost control: adjusted SG&A/GP fell to 68.2% (−120 bps YoY) and same-store to ~67% (−150 bps YoY), with a path toward 65.5%–67.5% in 2025 .
  • Financing operations profitability and NIM expansion: DFC income of $12.5M, originations $623M, NIM 4.6% (up 117 bps YoY; +7 bps QoQ), portfolio ~$4.06B average managed receivables .
  • Aftersales strength: same-store aftersales gross profit +7.5% YoY; margin up to 57.8%; warranty gross profit +19.7% YoY; management: “we did have a pretty good lift this quarter in terms of labor… over 57% margin” .

Quotes:

  • CEO: “Our strong first quarter performance reflects the power of our integrated ecosystem… we achieved profitable growth year over year in each month this quarter” .
  • CFO: “We’re on track to achieve same-store SG&A in the range of 65.5% to 67.5%” .
  • CEO on tariffs: “We have about 45% of our inventory that’s not impacted… the most diversified and the least impacted” .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue and Primary EPS slightly below S&P consensus (normalized EPS basis); revenue $9.18B vs $9.28B consensus and Primary EPS $7.66 vs $7.87 consensus [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
  • New vehicle GPUs normalized YoY: new GPU $3,016 (−12.5% YoY); gross margin fell to 6.3% (−110 bps YoY) as industry mix normalized .
  • Used wholesale revenue and GPUs weaker: wholesale revenue −2% YoY; total vehicle GPU −4.2% YoY to $4,164; same-store total vehicle GPU −3.2% YoY to $4,301 .

Analyst concerns:

  • SG&A seasonality vs Q4: sequential pickup exceeded typical seasonality; clarification provided (seasonality and Pinewood fair value in Other income) .
  • Macrotariff uncertainties and potential demand lumpiness later in the year, though management expects resilience via affordability mix and OEM pricing actions .

Financial Results

Headline vs Estimates (Q1 2025)

MetricConsensus (S&P Global)*ActualSurprise ($)Surprise (%)
Revenue ($USD Billions)$9.28*$9.18 −$0.11*−1.1%*
Primary EPS ($USD)$7.87*$7.66*−$0.21*−2.7%*

Note: S&P Global’s Primary EPS for LAD aligns to normalized/adjusted EPS; LAD’s GAAP diluted EPS was $7.94 .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Quarterly Trend (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$9.22 $9.22 $9.18
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$7.80 $8.12 $7.94
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)$8.21 $7.79 $7.66
Gross Profit Margin (%)15.5 14.9 15.4
SG&A as % of Gross Profit (Adjusted)66.0 66.3 68.2
Operating Profit as % of Revenue (Adjusted)4.6 4.4 4.3
Net Profit Margin (Adjusted, %)2.4 2.3 2.2

YoY Comparison (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$8.56 $9.18
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$5.89 $7.94
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)$6.11 $7.66
Net Income ($USD Millions)$165.0 $211.2
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$1,335.2 $1,410.4
Gross Profit Margin (%)15.6 15.4

Segment Breakdown (Q1 2025)

Revenue Category ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q1 2025YoY Change
New vehicle retail$4,014.1 $4,380.2 +9.1%
Used vehicle retail$2,800.8 $2,919.1 +4.2%
Used vehicle wholesale$337.7 $331.0 −2.0%
Finance and insurance$340.6 $364.3 +7.0%
Aftersales$912.8 $979.1 +7.3%
Fleet and other$155.8 $204.6 +31.3%
Total revenues$8,561.8 $9,178.3 +7.2%

KPIs and Mix (Q1 2025)

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
New retail units (units)85,683 91,990
Used retail units (units)102,436 107,326
New ASP ($)$46,848 $47,616
Used ASP ($)$27,342 $27,198
New GPU ($)$3,447 $3,016
Used GPU ($)$1,783 $1,769
F&I per unit ($)$1,811 $1,828
Aftersales Gross Margin (%)55.0 57.3
Total vehicle GPU ($)$4,346 $4,164
Inventory days’ supply (new/used)44 / 44 43 / 45
DFC originations ($USD Millions)$77.3 interest & fee income baseline (NIM context) $623 originations; NIM 4.6%
Net debt / TTM Adjusted EBITDA (x)2.31x 2.47x

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Dividend per shareQ1 2025$0.53 (Q4 2024) $0.55 Raised
Share repurchase authorization remainingAs of Q4 2024 call~$454.3M ~$669.2M Increased (authorization/refresh)
Same-store SG&A as % of GPFY 2025N/A65.5%–67.5% Set range
Capital allocation (buybacks)Near-termN/AAllocate 30%–40% of FCF to buybacks Established
M&A acquired revenuesCY 2025$2–$4B multi-year target “Closer to $2B this year” Lowered near-term
DFC penetration targetLong-termN/A20% of units financed through DFC (path from ~13.7% exiting Q1) Affirmed target
New vehicle GPU expectations (internal)Multi-yearN/A$2,600–$2,800 target (mix/luxury, Southeast exposure) Established
Net leverage targetLong-term2–3x 2–3x (Q1 ended at ~2.5x) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Tariffs/macroAftersales +6.3% same-store; mix normalization pressures GPUs Record rev; first profitable year for financing ops; SAAR elevated 45% inventory not impacted; OEMs stabilizing pricing; mild lumpiness possible in fall Stabilizing; diversified mix mitigates risk
SG&A executionAdj. SG&A/GP 66.0% Adj. SG&A/GP 66.3% 68.2% (consolidated) with path to 65.5–67.5% same-store; mid-50s long-term Structural downtrend over time
DFC (financing ops)Continued profitability; ABS priced; NIM rising First profitable year; NIM 4.7%; originations $501M Income $12.5M; originations $623M; NIM 4.6%; ABS market choppy but warehouse capacity ample Scaling; resilient funding
Inventory & DS supplyDS supply high (68/68) DS improved to 59/53 DS down to 43/45; floor plan expense −6% YoY Improving; cost tailwinds
Used/value autosUsed GPUs down; same-store used declines Used retail up; GPUs normalized Value auto sales +38.8% YoY; used GPU stable; procurement focus Momentum rebuilding
Regional trendsWestern regions weaker; Southeast stronger N/ANW/SW now strongest GP; Southeast/South Central still higher net profitability due to fee structure Mix shifting; profitability spread persists
Technology/PinewoodN/AN/APinewood FV change −$0.27 EPS; future ERP savings $30–$40M Transition will lower costs
Leasing/incentivesN/AN/ALeasing rising toward ~20%; incentives still low; OEMs can absorb cost increases Beneficial for affordability

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and execution: “We are single-minded in our goals, unlocking the profitability of the life cycle by creating customer loyalty… delivering on our core strength, execution” .
  • SG&A trajectory: “Drop about 7 bps out of the model each and every month starting in the second half of this year… pathway to mid-50s SG&A range” .
  • Tariff resilience: “We have about 45% of our inventory that’s not impacted… the most diversified and the least impacted” .
  • Capital allocation: “Repurchased 1.7% of our outstanding shares… will focus our share buybacks in the near term given market pricing dynamics” .
  • DFC scaling: “Each loan originated by DFC contributes up to 3x more profitability than traditional indirect lending” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tariffs and demand: OEM pricing clarity through at least May; LAD expects resilience via affordability mix across brands and channels .
  • SG&A path: Seasonal step-up Q1; long-term SG&A reductions via personnel productivity, vendor consolidation (Pinewood), and interest cost efficiencies .
  • DFC funding: Q1 ABS oversubscribed; term market choppy; warehouse capacity ample to bridge timing .
  • Used/value autos: Strong value auto momentum; strategy to retain older/off-brand vehicles to capture high-turn, high-ROIC sales .
  • Regional profitability: Southeast/South Central roughly double net profit/revenue vs SW/NW due to regulatory/fee structures; recent GP strength in NW/SW .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus (Primary EPS, normalized) and revenue slightly missed; GAAP EPS ($7.94) would imply a small beat vs EPS consensus ($7.87), but S&P’s Primary EPS aligns to adjusted EPS (actual $7.66). Street likely to revise models toward higher GAAP EPS, with normalized EPS sensitive to non-core items (Pinewood FV, disposals, insurance reserves) [Values retrieved from S&P Global] .

Where estimates may adjust:

  • Normalize EPS trajectory: potential upward adjustments to GAAP EPS durability; normalized EPS may be trimmed modestly near-term to reflect non-core impacts and GPU normalization [Values retrieved from S&P Global] .
  • DFC contributions: rising NIM and originations support modest upward adjustments to financing ops profitability embedded in models .
  • SG&A: improved execution and vendor/interest savings can underpin medium-term margin revisions .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution over optics: despite slight consensus misses on normalized EPS and revenue, the operational cadence (days’ supply, SG&A, aftersales, DFC) is improving and more durable .
  • Dividend and buybacks as support: 4% dividend hike and sizable buybacks (1.7% in Q1) are tangible capital return catalysts; authorization increased to ~$669M .
  • Tariff hedge via mix: 45% of inventory insulated; affordability-first product strategy (value autos, leasing) and OEM actions reduce downside risk from tariffs .
  • Financing ops as a growth vector: NIM expansion and ABS access point to rising adjacency profitability; longer-term DFC penetration to 20% can structurally lift EPS .
  • SG&A structural path: pathway to mid-50s SG&A/GP via productivity, Pinewood, vendor consolidation, and interest cost reduction—key medium-term margin driver .
  • Regional profitability matters: exposure to higher net profit regions and fee structures is a persistent advantage; watch the improving GP in NW/SW .
  • Near-term deployment: M&A pacing to ~$2B this year; buybacks prioritized given relative valuation, providing EPS support while macro normalizes .

Citations:

  • Q1 2025 8-K earnings release, financials, KPIs, dividend/buybacks .
  • Q1 2025 earnings call transcript (strategy, SG&A, tariffs, DFC, regional trends, leasing, value autos) ; alt transcript corroboration .
  • Q4 2024 8-K (prior quarter trend, dividend) .
  • Q3 2024 8-K (two quarters prior trend) .
  • Estimates: S&P Global consensus and actuals (Primary EPS, Revenue) [Values retrieved from S&P Global].