Executive Summary

Q3 revenue modestly beat consensus while EPS missed: net revenues $585.5M vs $583.0M consensus; diluted EPS $1.40 vs $1.56 consensus. Adjusted EBITDA rose 3.5% YoY to $280.8M, while S&P-tracked EBITDA fell below consensus as mix/one-time costs weighed on GAAP metrics (consensus marked with * below).
Management reaffirmed FY25 diluted AFFO per share guidance of $8.10–$8.20; capex ($180M), maintenance capex ($60M), cash taxes (~$10M) and cash interest ($152M) unchanged. Balance sheet strengthened via $700M Term B refinancing and $400M notes at a 5.38% coupon; liquidity $834M at quarter-end .
Demand mix improved: national/programmatic led growth (+5.5% national; programmatic +13%), digital billing +5% (same-store +3.4%), airports +5.8% and logos +5.2%. Local remained resilient (+1.6%) with legal/insurance strength; beverages/real estate soft. Political revenue was a YoY headwind ($2.7M vs $6.1M) .
Strategic catalysts: pharma vertical inflecting (largest-ever pharma buy launched late Q3 and runs through most of Q4) and OptimizeRx data partnership to enhance healthcare targeting; 2026 setup positive with political cycle and World Cup tailwinds; Verde UPREIT accretive with better EBITDA flow-through vs Vancouver exit .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

National/programmatic re-accelerated: national +5.5%, programmatic +13% YoY; digital billing +5% (same-store +3.4%) and now ~31% of billboard billing, supporting mix and rate realization .
Segment outperformance: airports +5.8% and logos +5.2% outpaced the broader portfolio; Atlantic and Northeast billboard regions led low-single-digit growth .
Capital markets execution and liquidity: refinanced the nearest maturity with a $700M Term B at L+150 bps and issued $400M 5.38% notes at the lowest-ever 8-year spread to Treasuries; total liquidity $834M at Q3 end .

Quote: “We delivered solid results… on track to hit our revised guidance for full year diluted AFFO per share.” – Sean Reilly, CEO .

What Went Wrong

EPS miss vs Street and slight YoY decline in net income: diluted EPS $1.40 vs $1.56 consensus and down from $1.44 YoY, as operating expenses rose and there was a $2.0M loss on debt extinguishment (consensus marked with * below).
Operating expense growth: acquisition-adjusted opex +3.7% YoY, including one-time severance from the Vancouver transit contract termination and phase two tech implementation costs (~125 bps contribution), limiting flow-through .
Political headwind: political revenue decreased to $2.7M from $6.1M in Q3’24; management cautioned on tough October comps vs 2024, impacting national pacing visibility into Q4 .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$505.4	$579.3	$585.5
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.35	$1.52	$1.40
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$210.2	$278.4	$280.8
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	41.6%	48.1%	48%
AFFO ($USD Millions)	$164.3	$225.3	$226.5
Diluted AFFO/Share ($)	$1.60	$2.22	$2.20

Q3 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus

Metric	Consensus*	Actual
Revenue ($USD)	$583.00M*	$585.54M
Primary EPS ($)	$1.56*	$1.40
EBITDA ($USD)	$280.04M*	$273.21M

Estimates marked * retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: Company highlights Adjusted EBITDA ($280.8M), which increased 3.5% YoY, while consensus tracks EBITDA; Q3 GAAP EBITDA came in below consensus while Adjusted EBITDA was strong (consensus marked with * above).

Segment/Channel Highlights (Q3 2025)

Category	Q3 YoY
Airport revenue growth	+5.8%
Logos revenue growth	+5.2%
National revenue growth	+5.5%
Local revenue growth	+1.6%
Programmatic growth	+13%
Digital billing growth (same-store)	+3.4%

KPIs

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Digital billboard units (end of period)	—	5,255	5,442
Digital billboard revenue growth (%)	+4%	—	+5%
Programmatic revenue growth (%)	~+30%	~+10%	~+13%
Billboard sales mix – Local (%)	82%	79%	78%
Political revenue ($)	—	—	$2.7M
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	$121.1	$199.1	$189.2

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Diluted AFFO/Share	FY2025	$8.10–$8.20 (revised Aug-8)	$8.10–$8.20 (affirmed Nov-6)	Maintained
Total CapEx	FY2025	~$180M	~$180M	Maintained
Maintenance CapEx	FY2025	~$60M	~$60M	Maintained
Cash Taxes	FY2025	~+$10M	~+$10M	Maintained
Cash Interest	FY2025	~$152M	~$152M	Maintained
Regular Dividend/Share	FY2025	≥$6.20	~$6.20 (recommendation to declare $1.55 for Q4)	Maintained
Special Distribution (Vistar)	Q4 2025	—	~+$0.25 on 12/31 (all cash), subject to Nov/Dec performance	New disclosure
Net Leverage	FY2025	~3.0x expected	~3.0x expected; secured <1x	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q1 2025 (prior)	Q2 2025 (prior)	Q3 2025 (current)	Trend
National vs Local Demand	National slightly down; local steady; programmatic strong (~+30%)	Both grew; national/programmatic +0.5% on billboard; cautious Oct comps	National +5.5%, local +1.6%; largest-ever pharma buy launched	Improving national; local resilient
Programmatic	~+30% YoY	~+10% YoY	~+13% YoY	Sustained growth
Digital Network	Digital rev +4% in Q1	Ended Q2 with 5,255 units; adding 325–350 in 2025	Ended Q3 with 5,442 units; digital ~31% of billboard billing	Expanding footprint/mix
Airports & Logos	Outpaced portfolio (+2.8%, +2.3%)	Outpaced portfolio; strong rebound	Airports +5.8%, Logos +5.2%	Ongoing outperformance
Political Advertising	2026 expected tailwind	Big 2H24 comp headwind; -100 bps Q3, -200 bps Q4	Q3 $2.7M vs $6.1M last year; October replacement strong ex-political	Headwind easing into 2026
AI/Tech	Enterprise conversion raising opex	—	Enterprise conversion sets up AI benefits in 2027	Investment phase; later benefits
M&A/UPREIT	YTD M&A >$70M; buybacks $150M	Verde UPREIT closed; Q2 M&A ~$110M; Vancouver exit	~$300M 2025 M&A incl. Verde; better flow-through vs Vancouver	Accretive consolidation
Capital Markets	Liquidity $491M; no near maturities	Leverage ~3.0x; liquidity $363M (revolver drawn)	$700M Term B (L+150), $400M 5.38% notes; liquidity $834M	Strong execution
Vancouver Transit Exit	—	Exit impact ~$0.06 FY25 (mostly severance)	One-time severance included in opex growth	Headwind largely one-time
Healthcare/Pharma Vertical	—	—	Largest-ever pharma buy; OptimizeRx partnership for clinical targeting	New growth vector

Management Commentary

“We delivered solid results in the third quarter… Based on our pacings, we are on track to hit our revised guidance for full year diluted AFFO per share.” – Sean Reilly, CEO .
“Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $280.8 million… margin for the quarter remained strong at 48%, essentially flat year-over-year.” – Jay Johnson, CFO .
“The bond deal was oversubscribed… lowest-ever spread to treasuries for an eight-year in the high-yield market, with a coupon of 5.38%.” – Jay Johnson, CFO .
“Programmatic grew a little over 13% in Q3… Top five accounts increasing spend: Geico, Progressive Insurance, JPMorgan Chase, Coca-Cola, and Johnson & Johnson.” – Sean Reilly, CEO .
“We are going through a pretty extensive enterprise conversion… setting us up to realize the benefits of AI in 2027.” – Sean Reilly, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

2026 setup: Stronger pacings vs last year, political tailwind, and Verde offsetting Vancouver (with better EBITDA flow-through than Vancouver contributed) .
AI enablement timeline: Enterprise conversion completes mid-2026; AI-driven efficiencies expected to materialize by 2027 .
Airports strategy: Focus on small/middle-market airports outside top 20 DMAs; continued pursuit of RFPs in this segment .
Special distribution: All-cash special distribution tied to Vistar sale expected around $0.25 on 12/31 alongside regular Q4 dividend (subject to Nov/Dec performance) .
National sustainability: Blue-chip spend increases (insurance, financials, beverages, pharma) and improved dialogue for 2026 underpin confidence ex-political .

Estimates Context

Relative to S&P Global consensus, revenue modestly beat while EPS and EBITDA missed: Revenue $585.54M vs $583.00M*, Primary EPS $1.40 vs $1.56*, EBITDA $273.21M vs $280.04M*. Company-reported Adjusted EBITDA rose 3.5% YoY to $280.77M .
Drivers of variance: higher acquisition-adjusted opex (+3.7% YoY) from Vancouver severance and tech implementation costs (~125 bps), plus a $2.0M loss on debt extinguishment weighed on GAAP results vs consensus .
FY25 guide affirmed; Street estimates may recalibrate mix assumptions (national/programmatic strength, airport/logos outperformance) and model lower opex growth into 2026 as one-time items roll off .

Estimates marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Revenue resilience with improving mix: national/programmatic and airport/logos outperformed; digital penetration and rate continue to support margins (Adj. EBITDA margin 48%) .
EPS/EBITDA consensus gap driven by one-time opex and non-operating items; these should abate as Vancouver severance and tech implementation costs roll off, aiding 2026 comps .
Balance sheet is a strategic asset: extended maturities, ample liquidity ($834M), lowest-priced Term B (L+150), and oversubscribed 8-year notes at 5.38% provide dry powder for accretive M&A .
Healthcare/pharma emerging as a growth vertical: largest-ever pharma campaign plus OptimizeRx partnership (ZIP+4 clinical targeting) position LAMR to capture incremental share from data-driven healthcare budgets .
2026 setup looks favorable: political cycle flips to tailwind; World Cup demand adds; national buyer tone improving; Verde contribution provides better EBITDA flow-through than Vancouver .
Dividend visibility remains strong: regular ~$6.20 per share for FY25, with potential ~$0.25 special cash distribution at year-end tied to Vistar sale .
Near-term trading: Watch for Q4 ex-political trends and margin trajectory as one-time opex normalizes; medium-term thesis hinges on digital/programmatic scaling, healthcare vertical, and disciplined M&A underpinned by balance sheet strength .

LAMAR ADVERTISING CO/NEW (LAMR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary