Executive Summary

Solid Q4 finish with acquisition-adjusted revenue +4.1% and adjusted EBITDA +3.9% YoY; full-year diluted AFFO per share hit $7.99, above the top end of revised guidance, aided by strength in political, local and programmatic channels .
GAAP EPS was noisy (Q4 diluted EPS of $(0.01)) due to a non-cash $159.7M asset retirement obligation (ARO) estimate revision that drove a 234% jump in D&A; core measures (EBITDA, AFFO, FCF) were healthy .
2025 guide: diluted AFFO/share $8.13–$8.28 and diluted EPS $6.01–$6.07; company raised the quarterly dividend to $1.55 and targets at least $6.20/share of regular dividends in 2025, with a possible year-end special tied to the Vistar gain distribution requirement .
Strategic catalysts: accelerating digital conversions (≥350 units), improving national backdrop, programmatic scaling, Vistar stake monetization ($115.1M cash, up to $15.1M escrow) used to de-lever revolver—positioning M&A capacity “well over $1B” at ~2.8x net debt/EBITDA .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Demand: Q4 acquisition-adjusted revenue +4.1% YoY with growth across billboards, logos, transit and airport; programmatic up ~~30% YoY (~~$3M) and same-store digital +3.7% .
- Execution on core cash metrics: Adjusted EBITDA +3.9% YoY; AFFO/share +5.2% to $2.21; FCF +8.5% YoY in Q4 .
- Balance sheet and capital allocation: Sold Vistar stake to T-Mobile for $115.1M cash (up to $15.1M extra), applied to revolver (balance now $119M); 2025 regular dividend increased to at least $6.20/share .
- Quote: “Revenue growth accelerated in the fourth quarter, aided by strength in political, local and programmatic. This allowed us to deliver full-year AFFO of $7.99 per share, above the top end of our revised guidance range.” — CEO Sean Reilly .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP optics: Net income fell 100.7% YoY to a $(1.0)M net loss in Q4 due to a non-cash ARO estimate revision adding $159.7M to D&A; without this, net income would have risen 6.3% YoY .
- Corporate/OpEx: Reported corporate expense rose 15.2% YoY in Q4; management flagged peak ERP conversion costs as a 2025 headwind (declining after completion) .
- National mix still lagging peers given footprint (NY/LA) and category mix (entertainment skew), though tone is improving into 2025 .

Financial Results

Quarterly comparison (older → newer):

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Net Revenue ($M)	$565.3	$564.1	$579.6
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$1.34	$1.44	$(0.01)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$271.6	$271.2	$278.5
Diluted AFFO/Share ($)	$2.08	$2.15	$2.21
Free Cash Flow ($M)	$203.5	$198.1	$195.6

Q4 YoY performance vs Q4 2023:

Metric	YoY Change
Net Revenue	+4.3%
Adjusted EBITDA	+3.9%
AFFO	+5.4%

Consensus vs actual (S&P Global):

SPGI consensus estimates for Q4 2024 (EPS, revenue, EBITDA, FCF) were unavailable at time of analysis due to S&P Global daily request limit, so a comparison to Street consensus could not be performed. We attempted to retrieve estimates but were rate-limited by S&P Global’s API.

KPIs and operating mix:

KPI	Q4 2024	Prior Context
Programmatic revenue growth	~~+30% YoY (~~+$3M)	Q3 programmatic grew >70% YoY
Same-store digital (large format)	+3.7% YoY	+2.1% in Q3
Digital billboard count (EoY)	4,994 units	4,759 prior year (↑235)
2025 digital deployment plan	≥350 units; stretch ~375	Slowdown in 2024; reacceleration in 2025
Mix: Local/Regional vs National/Programmatic	77.9% vs 22.1% in Q4	~79% vs ~21% in Q3
Political revenue	$14.5M in Q4; $29.2M FY	$2.9M Q4’23; $7.5M FY’23
Regional strength/weakness	Northeast +6.7%; Gulf Coast +3%	Gulf Coast lag in Q3 on tough comp

Balance sheet, liquidity, leverage:

Liquidity at 12/31/24: $506.7M (cash $49.5M; revolver availability $457.2M); total debt $3.21B; equity $1.05B .
Net debt/EBITDA per credit facility: 2.83x; secured leverage 0.82x; WACD ~4.6%; WAM 3.8 years .
Revolver reduced to $119M outstanding after Vistar proceeds .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current/Outcome	Change
Diluted AFFO/Share	FY 2024	$7.85–$7.95 (Nov-2024 update)	$7.99 actual	Beat
Diluted AFFO/Share	FY 2025	n/a	$8.13–$8.28	New
Diluted EPS (Net Inc/Share)	FY 2025	n/a	$6.01–$6.07	New
Maintenance Capex	FY 2025	~$50M FY24 budget	~$60M	Raised
Cash Interest	FY 2025	~$166M FY24 guide	~$152M	Lower
Cash Taxes	FY 2025	~$10M FY24 guide	~$10M	Maintained
Regular Dividend	CY 2025	$5.60 incl. special planned for 2024	At least $6.20/share total regular dividends; Q1 set at $1.55	Raised
Special Dividend	CY 2025	n/a	Possible $15–$20M (Vistar tax distribution requirement)	Potential

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024 and Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Programmatic	Q2: solid demand; Q3: programmatic >70% YoY, new CPG/pharma; mix ~21% national/programmatic	Q4: programmatic ~+30% YoY (+$3M); same-store digital +3.7%	Strong, scaling with better data/attribution
Digital deployment	Q2: slowing 2024 rollout; plan to reaccelerate in 2025	Target ≥350 digitals (stretch 375) in 2025; gating factors are permits, construction, power, supply	Accelerating in 2025
Local vs National	Q3: local +4.9% YoY; national −2.9% on category/footprint mix	Q4: national rebounded to +3.5%; local +3.5%; national still below peers due to NY/LA footprint; entertainment skew	National improving; local resilient
Political	Q3: record October; ~$15M YTD through Q3	$14.5M in Q4; ~$29.2M FY; 2025 impact and crowd-out uncertain	Peak in Q4; replacement needed in Q1
Capital allocation	Q2: repaid Term Loan A; ATM in place	Vistar sale $115.1M (+ up to $15.1M); revolver down to $119M; 2025 dividend run-rate $6.20	De-lever, higher distributions
M&A pipeline	Q3: more active in 2025 expected	Expect ~$150M deals in 2025; capacity >$1B at ≤3.5–4x net debt/EBITDA	Re-accelerating tuck-ins
Pricing/occupancy	Q3: near peak occupancy; gains rate-driven	Rate is primary lever at peak occupancy	Rate discipline continues

Management Commentary

“We anticipate another year of growth… guiding to full year AFFO per share in the range of $8.13 to $8.28.” — Sean Reilly .
“Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter held strong at 48.1%… Free cash flow also improved in the quarter, growing 8.5% over Q4 2023.” — Jay Johnson .
“We concluded the year with 4,994 digital units… our stretch goal is… 375, let’s say at least 350 [in 2025].” — Sean Reilly .
“The [ARO] expense is a noncash item and does not impact the company’s adjusted EBITDA or AFFO.” — Jay Johnson .
“Count on about $150 million in [M&A] deals… It could be even more than that.” — Sean Reilly .

Q&A Highlights

Why FY25 AFFO guide below Street? Headwinds from loss of Vistar equity income and higher maintenance capex/ERP costs (~$0.13 headwind), plus soft Q1 comp; expenses ease after ERP completion .
National lag vs peers: Footprint and category effects (NY/LA concentration, entertainment recovery favored peers); national improving into 2025 .
Digital roll-out cadence: Ratable through 2025; gating issues are permitting, construction, vendor supply, and power hookups .
Pricing vs occupancy: At peak occupancy, growth is rate-driven; programmatic can carry slightly higher CPMs due to richer data/attribution .
OOH industry growth vs MAGNA: Portfolio differences (retail networks, cinema, smaller screens not in LAMR) explain higher industry prints; LAMR sees total OOH +3.5–4% .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS, revenue, EBITDA, and FCF was unavailable due to a daily request limit at the time of retrieval; therefore, we cannot compare reported results to Street estimates in this recap. We attempted to fetch SPGI data for Q4 2024 but were rate-limited by the provider’s API.

Where estimates typically adjust:

Core strength in Q4 EBITDA/AFFO, dividend step-up to $6.20, and 2025 AFFO guidance ($8.13–$8.28) may pull buy-side AFFO estimates toward management’s midpoint; Q1 is guided modest, with acceleration later in the year .
Loss of Vistar equity income and higher maintenance capex/ERP costs should be reflected in 2025 modeling; cash interest assumed at ~$152M and cash taxes at ~$10M .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Core operating momentum intact: Q4 revenue/AFFO beat internal expectations; AFFO margin durability and rate-driven pricing at peak occupancy remain supportive despite GAAP noise from ARO .
2025 set-up: Conservative Q1 due to leap-year comp and political replacement, but growth ramps through the year; AFFO guide implies ~1.8–3.6% YoY growth .
Capital deployment: Higher regular dividend ($6.20 run-rate) plus potential year-end special; ample M&A capacity (> $1B) with leverage still at low ~2.8–3.5x targets .
Structural growth drivers: Programmatic scaling, digital conversions (≥350), and potential national recovery provide catalysts; T-Mobile/Vistar deal validates programmatic OOH and provided de-levering cash .
Watch items: ERP costs and maintenance capex heavier in 2025; national mix/footprint limits full capture of certain categories; replacing Q4 political dollars in early 2025 .

Appendix: Additional Data

Full Q4 2024 financials (from press release and 8-K): revenue $579.6M; adjusted EBITDA $278.5M; FFO $226.7M; AFFO $226.5M; diluted AFFO/share $2.21; FCF $195.6M .
Liquidity at year-end 2024: $506.7M; total debt $3.21B; equity $1.05B .
2025 guidance detail: diluted EPS $6.01–$6.07; diluted AFFO/share $8.13–$8.28; maintenance capex ~$60M; cash interest ~$152M; cash taxes ~$10M .

All data above sourced from company press releases, 8-K, and earnings call transcript as cited.

LAMAR ADVERTISING CO/NEW (LAMR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary