NI
NLIGHT, INC. (LASR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 revenue and EPS beat Street: revenue $66.7M vs $63.9M consensus and non‑GAAP diluted EPS $0.08 vs ~$0.02 consensus; gross margin expanded to 31.1% and Adjusted EBITDA rose to $7.1M, driven by record Aerospace & Defense (A&D) revenue and 41% products gross margin . Q3 2025 consensus: Revenue $63.89M*, EPS $0.016*.
- Guidance: Q4 2025 revenue $72–$78M (midpoint $75M) broadly in line with consensus $75.2M*, with total GM 27–32% (products GM 34–39%, development ~8%) and Adjusted EBITDA $6–$11M; management raised full‑year 2025 A&D growth to exceed prior “at least 40%” outlook .
- Strategic momentum: Record A&D revenue ($45.6M) on amplifier shipments into HELSI‑2 and strength in laser sensing; signed a new $50M contract for an existing missile program; amplifiers targeted at >50% incremental gross margins, supporting structural margin expansion .
- Watch‑outs: Q4 margin guide implies sequential step‑down on freight/duties (~150–200 bps) and mix; development GM fell sequentially to 6.4%; GAAP OpEx included $1.7M restructuring (China/cutting & welding) and higher SBC tied to performance shares .
Note: Consensus/estimate values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record A&D revenue and product margin leverage: “record aerospace and defense revenue of $46M… products gross margin… record 41%” underpinning “leverage… in our operating model” .
- New business wins fortify 2026 pipeline: Signed “a new $50M contract for an existing long‑running missile program” in laser sensing; management highlighted a growing pipeline including Golden Dome-related opportunities .
- Booked programs offset HELSI‑2 wind‑down: “Based on what we are working on today, the hole is already filled” for post‑HELSI‑2 revenue, with additional directed energy and sensing programs already won and booked for 2026 .
What Went Wrong
- Development margin compression QoQ: Development GM decreased to 6.4% (from 13.1% in Q2) due to completion of smaller, higher‑margin programs in the prior quarter .
- Commercial markets remain soft YoY: Commercial (industrial + microfabrication) revenue $21.2M, down 18% YoY; management does “not believe… overall demand picture has significantly changed” and expects commercial decline in 2026 .
- Near‑term margin headwinds guided: Q4 GM guide down on freight/duties (~150–200 bps) and intra‑quarter mix shifts; GAAP OpEx included a $1.7M restructuring charge tied to reducing China exposure and cutting/welding activities .
Financial Results
Results vs Consensus (Q3 2025)
Note: Consensus values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.
Quarterly Trend and YoY
End-Market Revenue Mix
Selected KPIs and Operating Metrics
Non‑GAAP definitions and reconciliations provided by the company; see press release tables .
Guidance Changes
Management noted Q4 GM headwinds from freight/duties (~150–200 bps) and mix .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Q3 represented another solid quarter… record aerospace and defense revenue of $46M… products gross margin… record 41%… adjusted EBITDA… more than $7M” (Scott Keeney, CEO) .
- “Amplifiers and other products… drive incremental gross margins meaningfully north of 50%… we expect that to continue to expand” (Joe Corso, CFO) .
- “During the third quarter, we signed a new $50M contract for an existing long‑running missile program” (Scott Keeney) .
- “Based on what we are working on today, the hole is already filled” regarding HELSI‑2 trailing off; booked programs in both directed energy and sensing to offset .
- “Q4 total gross margin 27%–32%; products 34%–39%; development ~8%… adjusted EBITDA $6–$11M” (Joe Corso) .
Q&A Highlights
- Gross margin trajectory: Q4 GM step‑down driven by freight/duties (~150–200 bps) and intra‑market mix; overall margin still a function of volume, mix, and factory leverage .
- HELSI‑2 timeline and revenue cadence: On track for 2026; cost‑plus contract not recognized linearly; amplifiers are key product revenue driver .
- Post‑HELSI‑2 outlook: Management stated the revenue “hole is already filled” with booked programs in DE and sensing; additional high‑probability 2026 wins expected .
- Development vs. product revenue: Advanced development revenue is a positive indicator but not a 1:1 predictor of long‑term product revenue; DEM SHORAD ramping down .
- Commercial end‑markets: Microfabrication stabilized (~$8–$12M range) but overall commercial expected to decline in 2026; additive manufacturing a relative bright spot .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $66.74M vs $63.90M*; non‑GAAP diluted EPS $0.08 vs $0.016*; clear beat on both lines . Consensus values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.
- Q4 2025 guidance: Revenue $72–$78M (midpoint $75M) broadly in line with consensus $75.20M*; no EPS guidance provided, but GM mix suggests modest sequential EPS risk despite revenue growth .
- Model adjustments: Street likely to raise near‑term revenue/EPS on Q3 beat and A&D momentum, but may temper Q4 GM/EPS given guided freight/mix headwinds and lower development margin run‑rate .
Note: Estimates marked with * are values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Structural A&D inflection: Two consecutive record quarters in A&D (Q2/Q3) with amplifier shipments and a $50M sensing contract broaden 2026 visibility; management says 2026 post‑HELSI‑2 “hole” already filled with booked work .
- Margin expansion drivers intact: Products GM at 41% with >50% incremental margins on amplifiers suggests continued operating leverage as volumes scale, despite near‑term freight/mix headwinds .
- Commercial drag manageable: Commercial revenue stabilized QoQ but remains a YoY headwind and is expected to decline in 2026; continued resource reallocation and restructuring should limit downside .
- Q4 setup: Revenue guide midpoint in line with Street; watch mix and freight on GM; non‑GAAP OpEx ~ $18M supports EBITDA guide $6–$11M .
- Capital and liquidity: ~$116M cash/investments and positive operating cash flow in Q3 provide capacity to execute on growth programs without near‑term capital pressure .
- Stock drivers: Continued A&D bookings/awards (domestic and international), amplifier production scaling, and visibility on Golden Dome and procurement reforms could be upside catalysts; any slippage in development margins or commercial weakness would be watch‑outs .
- Non‑GAAP lens: Results and guidance hinge on product mix and SBC‑adjusted profitability; investors should track non‑GAAP EPS/EBITDA vs. revenue growth for operating leverage confirmation .
Sources: Q3 2025 Form 8‑K/Ex.99.1 and financials , Q3 2025 earnings call transcript , Q2 2025 press release and prior commentary , Q1 2025 press release . Estimates retrieved from S&P Global.