Liberty Global - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for saying goodbye. Welcome to Liberty Global's first quarter 2025 investor call. This call and the associated webcast are the property of Liberty Global, and any redistribution, retransmission, or rebroadcast of this call or webcast in any form without the express written consent of Liberty Global is strictly prohibited. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Today's formal presentation materials can be found under the investor relations section of Liberty Global's website at libertyglobal.com. After today's formal presentation, instructions will be given for a question-and-answer session. Page two of the slides details the company's safe harbor statement regarding forward-looking statements.

Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including the company's expectations with respect to its outlook and future growth prospects, and other information and statements that are not historical fact. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. These risks include those detailed in Liberty Global's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recently filed Forms 10-Q and 10-K as amended. Liberty Global disclaims any obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements to reflect any change in its expectations or in the conditions on which any such statement is based. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mike Fries.

Mike Fries (CEO)

Great. Welcome, everyone. Thanks for joining our first quarter investor call. We have got a lot of ground to cover, so we will jump right into prepared remarks. Of course, after that, we look forward to your questions, where I will get members of our management team engaged as needed. Just a reminder that we will be working off of slides today, which those of you on the webcast should be able to see now. At least we hope so. If not, they are always available on our website. I will kick off on slide three with a few broad observations. As you will remember, 15 months ago on this call, we outlined a strategic plan that was focused on creating value and, just as importantly, finding ways to deliver that value to our shareholders.

The tax-free spin-off of Sunrise this past November, which continues to trade well in the Swiss market, was the first big dividend from that plan, but not our only achievement. Just a few months ago on our year-end call, we reviewed progress across the balance of those strategic initiatives and presented the tactical steps we're taking now to create value on our three core platforms: Liberty Telecom, Liberty Growth, and Liberty Services. Now, the first takeaway from this call is that the team and I remain fully committed to those goals, and we're making solid progress across the board. That includes driving commercial momentum and network upgrades in our increasingly competitive telecom markets, optimizing our corporate structure and services platforms, and with $2.1 billion of cash on hand and a further EUR 500 million-EUR 750 million of asset sales planned this year, continuing to be smart about capital allocation.

Let's go through it one by one, beginning with Liberty Telecom on slide four, where the value creation opportunity is substantial and the strategy is clear. Wherever and whenever possible, we intend to pursue transactions or opportunities that crystallize and deliver value to shareholders in the medium term. Remember, Sunrise, as part of Liberty Global, was valued at around 5.5 times EBITDA. As a standalone Swiss company, it is now trading at over 8 times EBITDA or the equivalent of $11 per Liberty share, so basically equal to our current market cap. Sunrise is only 10% of our aggregate EBITDA. We are not saying we can do that in every case, but there are multiple opportunities for value creation at the level of our operating companies, which still comprise four markets, 80 million connections, EUR 22 billion of aggregate revenue, and EUR 8 billion of aggregate EBITDA.

We have a lot to work with, and we're focused on three near-term tactical goals for Liberty Telecom. The first is to finance and monetize network infrastructure where we can do that. As we've discussed, the rationale for this varies by market. We know fixed infrastructure in Europe is a highly sought-after and valuable asset class. Where possible, we're seeking to raise capital at higher multiples, accelerate or strengthen network upgrades and rollouts, and create strategic platforms for market rationalization. That's exactly what we believe we're achieving in Belgium. The creation of our NetCo, which we call Wyre, has allowed us to develop an exclusive wholesale relationship with Orange. It's allowed us to secure attractive CapEx financing for our fiber upgrade, and it's allowed us to enter into strategic discussions with the incumbent Proximus around network sharing, which are progressing quite well, actually.

Ultimately, it's going to allow us to facilitate bringing equity partners into the platform on highly accretive terms. In Ireland, our fiber upgrade will reach 80% of our footprint by the end of this year and has already improved our competitiveness. It's allowed us to enter into wholesale arrangements with both Sky and Vodafone generating new revenue streams, and it's reshaped the market in our favor. In the U.K., we are confirming today that we have paused our NetCo plans at the VMO2 level in order to align with Telefónica's announced strategic review. At the same time, nexfibre has updated its plans and will now target 2.5 million fiber homes by year-end on a cumulative basis. Let me say first that we pride ourselves on being good partners, and we appreciate and understand Telefónica's position.

Undoubtedly, we have more to say about all of this as the year unfolds. In the meantime, there are multiple ways to continue to strengthen VMO2's competitive position in the U.K. Our services already reach 7 million fiber homes. For reference, VMO2 achieved record sales and net adds last month on the nexfibre footprint. Stay tuned here. In the Netherlands, Stephen van Rooyen has made significant progress on a new strategic plan. You'll hear about that just in a moment. One element of that plan is a double down on DOCSIS 4 and the evolution of our broadband network, which resolves the outstanding question on some of your minds as to whether we need to build fiber in the Netherlands, and the answer is no.

The second tactical goal on this slide is to organize our strategic and operating plans in a way that delivers long-term free cash flow growth and allows us to begin deleveraging over time. The Sunrise spin reaffirmed the fact that stable free cash flow and more modest leverage are catalysts for value creation. Charlie will have more to say about this in a moment, but we are constantly focused on the balance sheet of our operating companies, having refinanced all 2027 maturities in the last 12 months. We just, in this past quarter, extended a further EUR 500 million of Telenet's debt at rates in line with historical spreads. We are sensitive to the fact that our leverage in some cases is above our targets.

That is why we've announced, for example, the sale of our Dutch towers, and then we intend to use those proceeds to pay down debt. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, it's imperative that we continue to drive commercial momentum across our businesses. Every market is different, of course, but competitive intensity is increasing wherever we operate. This is the nature of our sector today. In addition to stabilizing our network strategies, we're finding across the footprint that three core things are working well. Wherever we operate, we are supporting customer acquisition with flanker brands that target different segments of the market. Giffgaff is a strong complement to the O2 brand in the U.K., and we've just launched a broadband proposition to this growing customer segment.

In the Netherlands, Base in Belgium allows us to compete at the lower end of the market as well as expand into the south, where we see great opportunity for mobile and broadband growth. In every market, we are hyper-focused on base management and retention. This includes things like strengthening the value of our loyalty programs to drive stickiness and support cross-sell and upsell. In markets like the U.K., we're growing ARPU with AI tools that dynamically and proactively address customer contracts in Turin. We're hardening our base with things like a 25% speed increase in Holland and check-and-smile service programs in Belgium. Lastly, we're sharpening our competitive positioning with new packaging and pricing. VMO2 just refreshed its mobile portfolio with better airtime rates and multi-SIM offerings.

As we'll discuss in a moment, Vodafone Ziggo has just lowered its front book to match KPN. Many of these steps are laying the groundwork for greater reach, stronger sales, better retention, more ARPU, and higher quality of service, primarily over the medium term. While we do see green shoots in many markets today, competition for broadband and mobile customers remains intense. Generally, our Q1 subscriber and operating results on slide five reflect that. We saw stable broadband losses with a downtick in the U.K., and we experienced weakness in postpaid mobile across all of our markets with the exception of Holland. These headwinds were offset by strong fixed ARPU growth nearly everywhere, reflecting price increases and the impact of the commercial initiatives I just referenced.

Turning to each market briefly, in the U.K., broadband net adds declined, due to higher churn and higher overall market flux. That was driven in part by OneTouch Switch, the new policy and aggressive alternate offers. Lutz and the team are adapting the approach they're using to retention while continuing to focus on value with another quarter, as I said, of solid fixed ARPU growth. With over 2 million greenfield homes, there is significant growth opportunity remaining in the nexfibre footprint. Overall, the U.K. postpaid market remained relatively soft, with VMO2 impacted by B2B contract port-outs, which are typically lower value, of course. Consumer net adds, on the other hand, improved year on year. Encouragingly, we saw stable O2 churn dynamics, and we continue to see Giffgaff growth despite a competitive overall market with lots of MVNO activity.

It's worth noting that mobile service revenue, as reported by Virgin Media O2, was up in the quarter year-over-year. That was supported in part by a 2.6% uptick in mobile postpaid ARPU. Now, turning to Vodafone Ziggo, we continue to see an intensely competitive environment driven by promo offers from pretty much all the providers. We will discuss in more detail in the next slide what we intend to do. In response to this, Vodafone Ziggo launched new front book offers with simplified tiers and between EUR 3-EUR 5 price reduction, and that helps them better align to KPN pricing. We have already seen some benefits to churn as customers migrate. Postpaid mobile net adds in the Netherlands were 29,000. That was driven by growth in B2B. While the mobile market is generally more rational than fixed, we still see lots of price competition in the no-freel segment.

In Belgium, we had a steady quarter compared to prior periods, where we continue to see traction with our Base flanker brand in the south. Now, in the Telenet brand, we saw a successful Wi-Fi campaign during the quarter. We announced a price adjustment of around 3%, which took effect from April. The Belgian mobile market remains highly competitive, and that is characterized by prolonged promotional activity and repriced offers from the main flanker brands. In response to this, we have successfully repositioned Base as a counter to the launch of Digi, and that has driven improved performance in our flanker brand. Finally, the Irish broadband market is heating up around fiber, but we have seen churn improve as Virgin Media Ireland optimizes the customer retention process. During the quarter, we have also seen our wholesale growth through Sky and Vodafone starting to offset retail losses.

Now, I'd like to spend a few moments on Vodafone Ziggo. As you know, Stephen has been leading the charge for about six months. One of the main reasons that we and Vodafone hired Stephen was that we felt he could give us a clear-eyed assessment of the market, help us figure out Vodafone Ziggo's true strengths and weaknesses, and develop a plan to win again. That's exactly what he's done. On slide six, you'll see a very brief summary of the four key drivers he and the management team will use to regain commercial momentum in what is essentially a healthy three-player market. That is beginning with how they work. Specifically, that means simplifying processes, accelerating decision-making, and optimizing costs and efficiencies. This was long overdue and will also generate significant OPEX savings.

Second, I think he has correctly concluded that the Dutch market is driven by speed and price, not necessarily technology. We have the highest ARPUs in the market, so this is the right time to reposition pricing, which you've already started doing on the front book, as I just mentioned. Third, as I mentioned a moment ago, Dutch consumers value speed, price, and quality of service. On the fixed network, we're going to go all in on DOCSIS 4, which will take us to 8 gig speeds by the end of 2026 at a fraction of the cost to build fiber in this market. In the meantime, our current network configuration can get us to 2 gigs, which will accelerate. Finally, the team will reinvest in Vodafone Ziggo's core strengths.

That includes strong brands, popular loyalty programs, and a large FMC base, as well as a unique sports platform. Now, Charlie will walk through some of the financial implications of this plan, but Margarita and I are 100% supportive of Stephen and the team. It's time to reset in order to get back to growth. Now, turning to slide seven, over the last year or so, we've provided greater disclosure on our Liberty Global portfolio. I think that's helped investors and analysts understand the nature and quality of our investments in tech, media, and content and infrastructure. This is especially important given the size of our portfolio at $3.3 billion and its relative contribution to our share price today, roughly $10 per share on an $11 stock. The strategy with Liberty Growth is simple.

We want to be in a position to rotate capital out of non-core and subscale assets and into higher return businesses or strategic Liberty Telecom opportunities. Tactically, we have committed to sell between EUR 500 million-EUR 750 million of assets this year. We have line of sight on certain deals, and I'd remind you that our publicly listed stakes alone total EUR 550 million. Now, it's premature to disclose any potential investments into Liberty Telecom with those proceeds, but we have been quite busy at the Liberty Growth level. As a reminder, our portfolio is highly concentrated, with seven investments accounting for nearly 75% of the $3.3 billion fair market value today. Now, you can see those $2.5 billion of investments listed on the bottom left of slide eight, along with a sequential change in fair market value this quarter.

Now, the changes quarter over quarter relate to increased investment, favorable FX movements, and increases in valuations. They total about $200 million for the entire portfolio just in the last three months. Now, given our controlling interest in Formula E, we do now consolidate this investment, and we're excited about showing more regular updates. It's been a fantastic start to season 11 with record viewership, particularly in the U.S., where our Mexico City race, for example, drew an audience 80% higher than F1's Las Vegas Grand Prix. Now, we're headed to Monaco this weekend, and I'm telling you, it's sold out for the double header on Saturday and Sunday.

Interestingly, to tap into this growing popularity, we launched a pretty interesting and unique sort of first in motorsports, where we brought 11 well-known personalities from sport, technology, and entertainment and gave them the unprecedented chance to prepare like a Formula E racer and actually drive the Gen 3 Evo car during a two-day track event at the Miami circuit. Now, you'll see that content, which has already generated 300 million views across social media and in a feature-length documentary later this year. Also, last week, we launched a brand new Formula E documentary on Amazon Prime, which goes behind the scenes with four drivers over the 2024 season. I encourage you to check it out just to get a feel for the racing and the personalities in the championship.

Finally, we are a short 18 months away from the new Gen 4 car, which is now testing and delivering incredible power, speed, and performance. Exciting things are happening there. One more slide from me on Liberty Services and our evolving corporate structure. As a reminder, Liberty Tech and Liberty Bloom generate EUR 600 million of annual revenue and positive operating free cash flow. Far from being a burden, each of these platforms continues to pursue growth and efficiency initiatives that will create real equity value for shareholders. Liberty Bloom, as you remember, provides a host of financial and back-office services. It just went public with its first marketing campaign and has already added, according to Charlie, 10 new non-Liberty clients to their roster. The balance of our corporate costs amounts to about EUR 200 million annually after management fees.

This is the number that analysts are valuing at approximately 14 times, resulting in a $10 reduction in our sum of the parts. Not only does the reduction in value not recognize the inherent equity value of Liberty Bloom and Liberty Tech, it penalizes us in relation to other sectors like media and private equity, even compared to some of our telco peers. We will continue to make the case with analysts, but in the meantime, we are working on reducing these corporate costs through a combination of efficiencies and additional revenue generated from Liberty Telecom, Liberty Growth, and Liberty Services. You know, stay tuned for more details about this in the second half of the year.

Finally, just a reminder that our corporate cash, which totaled $2.1 billion at the end of the quarter, sits 60% in EUR and is dedicated to supporting the strategic plans I just outlined. This includes, of course, opportunistic share buybacks, which we have targeted at up to 10% of our shares in 2025. As always, I look forward to digging into greater detail during the Q&A, but with that, Charlie, over to you.

Charlie Bracken (EVP and CFO)

Thanks, Mike. The next slide sets out a summary of the quarterly revenue and everyday performance in our key markets. VMO2 reported a return to revenue growth of 0.4%, excluding nexfibre-related construction revenues and handset revenues in Q1. This was driven by a strong performance in consumer fixed revenues and improving momentum in the mobile service revenue segment.

Vodafone Ziggo reported a revenue decline of 2.6%, mainly driven by a decline in fixed revenues and lower handset sales, which was partially offset by continued growth in Ziggo Sport and B2B fixed revenues. Telenet reported a revenue increase of 2.7%, supported by higher programming revenues in the quarter and the continued benefit of the June 2024 price adjustment. In terms of Q1 adjusted EBITDA performance, VMO2's adjusted EBITDA grew 0.8%, excluding the impact of Next Fiber, supported by core service revenue growth and cost efficiencies. Vodafone Ziggo's adjusted EBITDA declined 8% in the quarter, impacted by the decline in the fixed business, increased UEFA programming costs, and higher labor costs related to the collective labor agreement. Telenet's adjusted EBITDA grew 0.8%, supported by lower network costs and other cost control measures, which were partially offset by higher programming costs and wage inflation.

The next slide provides an update on the key metrics of our capital allocation model. Starting on the top left of the slide, in Q1, we saw cash flow generation in line with our expectations. As has been the case in previous years, Q1 is typically a modest cash outflow quarter, given the timing of interest payments on our debt stack and with limited cash distributions for the JVs, which tends to come in Q4. Turning to our cash walk, our consolidated cash balance sits at $2.1 billion at the end of Q1. From our closing Q4 balance, we saw modest outflows in the quarter related to investments in the Liberty Growth portfolio and the execution of our share buyback program. Moving to Liberty Growth, the fair market value of our Liberty Growth portfolio increased by around $150 million during the quarter.

This was primarily driven by the increase in dollar terms of our largely euro-denominated investments, as well as new investments in Atlas Edge and nexfibre. Finally, looking at our CapEx trends, we continue to invest in our fixed and mobile networks, and the elevated CapEx in Belgium and Ireland reflects the continued commitment to roll out fiber networks in those markets. Now, as a reminder, at Telenet, the step-up in CapEx will support an additional 375,000 homes passed by year-end 2025 at Wire, and will also support 5G and digital CapEx at the Serfco. We expect CapEx intensity at Serfco to decline in 2026 as we complete the major investments in the mobile network in 2025. Wire CapEx will also be fully debt financed through its own CapEx facility, which means there's no equity requirement from either Liberty Global or Telenet.

Overall, we remain confident in our ability to remain in line with our capital intensity targets across the OpCo as we set out in the guidance we announced at Q4 results. Turning to our treasury update, we maintain a strong balance sheet position with our debt split equally between bank debt and bonds. Our variable bank debt is fixed using swaps, which are independent of the debt, allowing us to refinance the credit spreads on our near-term maturities, but also benefit from the full term of the swaps. We maintain a cost of debt of around 4.5%, with an average life on our debt of approximately five years. Now, in general, we look to manage our debt maturities so that there are no material refinancing commitments in the next three years.

Following the successful refinancing of VMO2, we have now turned out all 2027 maturities, and this means we're able to remain opportunistic and flexible in our financing approach. We intend to remain proactive in terms of pushing out the existing maturities and extending the average life of our debt. Our activity at Telenet demonstrates our ability to remain agile, with a new eight-year EUR 500 million term loan facility deployed at an attractive spread of around 300 basis points, which was completed during the quarter. As a reminder, we also secured commitments for a EUR 500 million CapEx facility for Wire, beginning as a stand-alone capital structure to support the fiber rollout.

Now, Mike has already discussed the new strategic plan of Vodafone Ziggo, but in the following slide, I'm going to walk through both the near-term financial implications of the plan on the 2025 guidance and also give some color on the midterm financial implications and actions that we are taking to help return the business to our 4-5 times long-term leverage target. Now, beginning with the impact on 2025 guidance, we're lowering revenue guidance from broadly stable to low single-digit decline for 2025. Now, as Mike laid out in his remarks, this is principally driven by more aggressive retention activity across the market and the flow-through of lower front-book pricing and the right pricing of the Ziggo base. Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be down mid to high single digits in 2025, impacted by this migration process.

Capital intensity will remain at 20-22% of sales, in line with the guidance given in February. Adjusted free cash flow and shareholder distributions will be lower at a range of EUR 200 million-EUR 250 million versus the EUR 300 million we previously guided to, reflecting the impact of this lower adjusted EBITDA guidance. Now, turning to the midterm, we expect that the flow-through from the front-book pricing will continue to impact revenue and adjusted EBITDA trends through to 2026, with a moderating impact versus that in 2025. We believe that the series of commercial and network actions that we are taking will stabilize and then reduce the declines that we've been seeing in fixed subscriber customers. As Mike discussed, we're accelerating our DOCSIS 4 strategy in the Netherlands, not only to 8 gig speeds from 2026, but also strong interim steps, including 4 gig.

We aim to do this largely within the historic CapEx envelope of Vodafone Ziggo of around EUR 900 million a year. Now, whilst there will be an impact of the new strategic plan in 2025 and 2026, we are aiming to position the business to deliver a return to growth in the midterm, probably around 2027, whilst maintaining a broadly stable free cash flow profile through this transition period. Lastly, on leverage, given the short-term pressure on adjusted EBITDA, we anticipate leverage will peak in 2026 and reduce thereafter. Given this increase in short-term leverage, we are accelerating non-core asset sales, starting with Vodafone Ziggo's tower assets, and we will use the proceeds from these sales towards paying down debt.

Turning to our guidance for all our assets, I mean, just talk through the updates for Vodafone Ziggo, we are reconfirming all the remaining guidance metrics of VMO2, Telenet, Liberty Services, and corporate. That concludes our prepared remarks for Q1, and I would like to hand over to the operator for Q&A.

Operator (participant)

The question-and-answer session will be conducted electronically. If you would like to ask a question, please do so by pressing the star or asterisk key followed by the digit one on your phone. In order to accommodate everyone, we request that you ask only one question. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. We'll pause for just a moment to give everyone an opportunity to join the queue. Our first question will come from the line of Carl Murdock-Smith with Citigroup.

Your line is open.

Carl Murdock Smith (Director and Head of European Telecoms Equity Research)

That's brilliant. Thank you very much. I wanted to ask on the U.K. net adds and specifically the kind of commentary around the broadband additions and tough market conditions. I was wondering if you could provide a bit more color on that topic. I mean, you talked about one-touch switching. You talked about market competition, AltNets, and also, I guess, price rise impact as well. Could you provide some more color in terms of how much you assign to each one? I suppose you're talking about one-touch switching is interesting, given that it was also in place last quarter, but we didn't seem to see the same impact last quarter. What are you seeing through the quarter as well? Thank you.

Mike Fries (CEO)

Yeah. Thanks, Carl.

Look, we're not going to get into much more detail and breaking it down between OneTouch Switch and other factors. Lutz, why don't you try to address what you're comfortable sharing, and we'll go from there.

Operator (participant)

So that you're not being muted. I mean, quarter. You go.

Lutz Schüler (Member of Executive Leadership Team)

Can you hear me? Can you hear me? Can you hear me? Yeah. Yeah. Oh, sorry. Sorry. Carl, thank you for your question. What is actually happening is that, of course, quarter over quarter, GPLF is used more by customers. Yeah? That is number one. Number two is that the market is more competitive, and you might have seen it, right? Operators, some of the competitors put up to GBP 300 benefit on the table to get the customers. That means customers within minimum contracts can churn. That is number two.

This is also driven by AltNets, as you can expect, because they are in a pretty challenging situation. The only thing they have is their networks and price. That's it. We are impacted by that. The good news is, right, we built this machine that we can target down to 60 households and a retention offer with product and price. Now this machine is learning the same thing for prevention, right? We are running 100,000 campaigns with machine learning and AI at the same time. It takes time to optimize the machine from retention to prevention because the market clearly shifts because of GPLS to prevention. Two things are making me more comfortable. One is that we were able to generate fixed service revenue growth of 1.9% before price rise. Right? Price rise impact is kicking in in Q2.

Second, we see now some slight improvements from April onwards. We do not expect that to stay because our machine will deal differently with it. Yeah. I hope that gives some background.

Carl Murdock Smith (Director and Head of European Telecoms Equity Research)

That's fantastic. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question will go to the line of Robert Grindle with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Robert Grindle (Managing Director and Head of European TMT Research)

Hi, there. Thanks so much. That was an exciting hour or so. The question is on the Netherlands, actually. I think it's impressive that you can do the DOCSIS upgrades within the existing CapEx envelope. Just to be clear, is there an assumption about CPE costs and take-up of the higher speeds within that CapEx envelope? You have said you are going to sell towers in the Netherlands to reduce debt a bit. You have said that before a few years ago, if I am not mistaken.

Is there something that's changed now between yourselves and that you've got a bigger plan for the business that's unlocked this new ambition? Thank you.

Mike Fries (CEO)

On the towers, it takes time to get a towerco set up. There's lots of documentation and various things have to be put in place. We have a partner. I think we're now aligned as partners that this is a good time to go ahead and take that step, which, as you know, I mean, review many of them, is complicated and takes time. I think we're fortunately very aligned on that. You can figure out the value and proceeds it will create. I think our purpose and intention is to use those proceeds to absolutely pay down debt, which seems like the right thing to do, especially in light of this revised guidance.

On DOCSIS, look, we're committed to the strategy and the technology. The good news is we're not alone. I think there's 120 million homes currently being prepped and/or rolling out DOCSIS in the US. We're very closely aligned with Charter and Comcast on every element of the network rollout, the technology, the CPE. I think our numbers, while they will continue to be refined and improved, are pretty good. Stephen can talk about the impact that will have from a marketing point of view to have these types of speeds. It's time to put a line in the sand or draw a line in the sand. It's clear to us that this is the right technology for this market.

That, in my opinion, should take a little bit of a CapEx overhang off the story because I have received this question almost everywhere I go. Won't you have to build fiber? Won't you be building fiber? We are just waiting for that shoe to drop. We will not be building fiber in this market. DOCSIS 4 is the answer, and we think it is the right one. I do not know if Stephen or Enrique want to add anything to that.

Stephen van Rooyen (CEO)

No, Mike, I think that is pretty clear.

Mike Fries (CEO)

Sorry. Go ahead. Go ahead, Stephen. Go ahead.

Stephen van Rooyen (CEO)

No, I think that is, as you say, that is pretty clear. We are committed to that roadmap. The question was specifically about the CapEx envelope. We feel pretty comfortable that we have enough room in that to do what we need to do to upgrade the network.

Robert Grindle (Managing Director and Head of European TMT Research)

Great to hear. Thanks, gents.

Mike Fries (CEO)

Thanks, Robert.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question will go to the line of Polo Tang with UBS. Your line is open.

Polo Tang (Managing Director and Head of European Telecos Research)

Thanks for taking the question. It's really just to focus a bit more in terms of Vodafone Ziggo. I'd just be interested in terms of any commentary from Stephen van Rooyen in terms of what he's doing differently since he's taken over, and also any first impressions. I'd also be specifically interested in terms of the customer response to the EUR 5 price cut in terms of broadband. Has this resulted in any improvement in terms of net adds for Q2? Given the weakening EBITDA trends and with leverage at Vodafone Ziggo at six times, does it make sense to continue upstreaming a dividend to shareholders? Is cutting the dividend not the faster way to deleverage Vodafone Ziggo? Thanks.

Mike Fries (CEO)

Multi-level question there.

I think we feel like on the last one first, I'll hand it over to Stephen. On the dividend to shareholders, that's our current guidance. We'll obviously evaluate that as the year goes on. We think the tower proceeds, as well as other non-core asset sales, which we are working on, should be sufficient to delever the business to where it needs to be at this stage, especially given the strategy we're undertaking and the midterm growth prospects that we see. We'll evaluate that, Polo, as the year goes on. That's our current position. Stephen?

Stephen van Rooyen (CEO)

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Polo. I think your cheat sheet is on page six. If you want to know what I've been doing with my time in the office, it's pretty much outlined on the page.

Four big blocks: fixing the organization, fixing where the organization operates, looking at the cost savings that I think are overdue, which we plan to deliver this year through 2027. I think necessarily we've moved to realign our pricing. Our pricing was out of kilter with the marketplace. One of the biggest purchase reasons is price. Biggest reason for leaving is price. You need to sort that out. You just need to grasp that, and you need to do it. We've done that now. We did that actually earlier in Q1. As we've said in the financials, you'll feel the effect of that now, and you'll feel it through the rest of the year. It is the right thing to do because at the heart of what two and three are all about is arresting the decline, about stopping the descaling.

That's what the strategy is designed to do. Embracing three different brands that operate in three different market segments: the value end, and then you've got premium mobile and premium broadband, and making sure they're positioned pretty well, investing behind them to make sure they're pretty positioned well to take share in those markets. As Mike said, taking the risk off the table, the overhang on what the right thing to do with the network is, I'm highly convinced we have got conviction that pursuing the DOCSIS upgrade path and giving us the speeds we need in that marketplace is the right thing for us to do. We've got some differentiators. We've got a loyalty plan, which I'm very excited about.

I think we've only seen the tip of what we can do with that, helping offset some of the risk that we have in long-tenure backboard customers by investing more in there. As I see FMC, I see a lot of opportunity and a lot of upside to push that harder and further into the base than where we are today. The plan now is to commit to that, to just roll up the sleeves, align the team, the new operating model behind doing that, and deliver it.

Polo Tang (Managing Director and Head of European Telecos Research)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question will go to the line of Steve Malcolm with Redburn. Steve, your line is open.

Steve Malcolm (Senior Analyst and Partner)

Yeah. Yeah. Thanks, guys. I'll take a couple of accounts related on Vodafone Ziggo again. Stephen, I guess you're going to have to step up the plate again.

Just on the CapEx, can you give us an idea where the savings are to fund the DOCSIS 4? You're saying it's sort of stable EUR 900 million. What is coming out to fund that? Also, how long until you get the whole network upgraded? A rough sort of idea, the timeframe. Maybe you said it and I missed it, but it'd be great to hear that. Just on the OpEx savings, I'm curious that clearly part of the EBITDA down draft is Champions League. Stephen, you clearly come from a rich content environment in Sky. I can't think of a single telco that's really made money out of Champions League rights. Is this something that you need to own or something that you would give up fairly easily to try and improve the EBITDA in a couple of years' time? Thanks a lot.

Stephen van Rooyen (CEO)

Three questions in there.

Thanks for the questions. Let me deal with the last one first. I think it's sort of too early to call what our plan with UEFA is. You'll notice I made an intervention upon joining about monetizing it more and better. I think we made a statement that that started flowing through. I expect that there's more opportunity for me there. In the mix for the moment and for Ziggo Sport, it's a discrete and distinctive and valuable part of the brand and the proposition. I'm pretty happy with that. On the CapEx, we're getting through the bulk of the mobile network upgrade plan. Money should free up from that part of the network envelope to move across to this. We're also through and going through a part of our IT and our IT infrastructure.

That should start paying us some dividends, which allows us to reinvest money in the network upgrade and stay within the envelope that we've guided. In terms of rolling out the network, I'm not going to give you specifics about that other than, as we've said in this presentation, we see our way through to getting 2G, 4G, and 8G in parts of the country through the next 18 months, which, considering where we were and what the overhang was on us building fiber, is a pretty rapid deployment and an important deployment in specifically areas of the country where we think it's going to make a difference. Between that, fixing the network within the envelope that we've got, and getting our frontbook pricing right, and getting our brands in the right place and well-positioned and marketing correctly, I think I feel pretty good about it.

I feel pretty good about that one. Thanks for the question.

Mike Fries (CEO)

Yeah. By the way, there was always a little bit of DOCSIS in the original CapEx envelope to begin with. It was always our base case. We were not talking about it as much because we did not have the same conviction as we have right now. There is always some DOCSIS CapEx in there, so that is helping too.

Operator (participant)

Okay. Thanks a lot. Thank you. The next question will go to the line of Joshua Mills with BNP Paribas. Your line is open.

Joshua Mills (Executive Director and Sector Head for Telecoms Research)

Hi, guys. Thanks for the questions. I understand you probably cannot give too much detail on this one, but maybe if you would be able to give us some color on the kind of conversations you are talking to Telefónica about on VMO2, that would be helpful. How do they see the asset? How do you see the assets?

Is it still a priority longer term that you can reduce leverage at this entity, be that through asset sales or perhaps lowering the dividend payment? Just any broad brush commentary that you could give would be very helpful. It's obviously a bit of a surprise today to see the NetCo deal paused. Secondly, on the network strategy in the Netherlands, I think you're very clear that you're not going to build fiber. I think there were some comments at a conference from yourself, Mike, recently that you may be open to partnering with or doing deals with the opnets longer term. Is that still something you'd be considering under the right conditions, or do you think the DOCSIS 4 strategy you're putting in place today will be enough to provide the speeds you need across the whole footprint long term? Thanks.

Mike Fries (CEO)

Yes, thanks, Josh.

On the network question, the answer is we do feel that DOCSIS 4 will give us what we need long-term to be competitive. Having said that, we will always remain opportunistic about other network strategies or opportunities to either accelerate our access to high-speed or higher-speed broadband or create value. We rarely say never, but I think the core plan today is, as we've described it, and we're pretty bullish about that plan. On Telefónica, I mean, we really do and are good partners. We have had a very long and successful partnership with Telefónica. I respect the fact that the new leadership needs time to figure out where their priorities are and where they want to put their capital and effort and where they see the biggest benefits and upside for their shareholders. I am respectful of that.

If I were to reverse the tables and if we were coming in with a fresh perspective or developing a fresh perspective, we would also see some kind of understanding. That is point one. There are lots of options remaining in this market. As Lutz and I mentioned, there are 7 million fiber homes already in our ecosystem that we control. We are the second largest network in this country, 18 million homes. The engine is churning in a positive way. There is lots to be really, I think, excited about in the U.K. We are going to keep figuring out how we create value for shareholders, and they will be doing the same thing. I would say it is a very good dialogue. I think a very highly marked. He has come into this as a new sector, and he has very quickly, I think, grasped the core aspects of our industry.

We're going to give them the time they need to figure it out. That's really all I would add to that.

Joshua Mills (Executive Director and Sector Head for Telecoms Research)

Great. Thanks.

Lutz Schüler (Member of Executive Leadership Team)

Operator? You got it.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question will go to the line of Ulrich Rathe with Bernstein Societe Generale Group. Your line is open.

Ulrich Rathe (Senior Telecom Analyst)

Thanks very much. On the Netherlands, I wanted to ask, one of the sort of arguments that is floating around on the difference between staying with HFC and going to full fiber is that the operating costs on the cable option, even with the higher speeds that DOCSIS 4 offers, will be structurally higher in the long term and that this is a competitive issue. How do you think about that element of it, the higher operating costs and potential margin impact relative to competitors?

If I may just put in one clarification on the U.K. NetCo, please, is there a time scale to this pause? Is this something where you would expect to be talking to us again in six months or the next two years, or is there any sense of when this sort of pause might end? Thank you.

Mike Fries (CEO)

I think the leadership of Telefónica has, I believe, suggested that they will have views on their strategic plan in the second half of this year. To the extent that this will have an impact on our own strategies and opportunities in the U.K., that's probably a pretty good time frame, H2. On the OpEx question, as I think we've mentioned many times before, there are a handful of things that drive the decision between, let's say, fiber and DOCSIS. The number one issue is the cost per premise.

What we know is that the cost per premise in the Netherlands will be a very small fraction of the build cost for fiber. It almost dwarfs any potential, and I would use the word potential, long-term OpEx efficiencies from consolidating networks and consuming less power and the things that fiber can provide. The cost to build, in our opinion, in the Dutch market is prohibitive, whereas we can get where we need to be with a very small fraction of that expense with DOCSIS. We really do not even get ourselves to the OpEx efficiency question because it is relatively small in the scheme of the overall capital decision and capital allocation decisions we are looking at. I do not know if Enrique, you want to add anything to that?

Enrique Rodriguez (EVP and CTO)

Hi, Mike. I think that is pretty accurate.

The other thing I would just add is that we maintain our networks, our HFC networks in the Netherlands and in all our operating companies at a pretty high level, pretty current technology. As probably all of you know, the HFC technology today is really highly, highly, highly connected to software, cloud, all modern technology. We feel pretty confident about the operating expenses on DOCSIS, not only DOCSIS 4, but in the continuation and expansion of DOCSIS 3.1 that Stephen mentioned before.

Mike Fries (CEO)

The other point I'll make in support of DOCSIS in this case, yeah, I was going to say the other point I'll make in support of DOCSIS on this case is that connection cost and CPE and these types of issues are really equally important in any fiber decision.

I think the ability to stay with a single network here and execute against a single technology and to do so with less disruption to customers is another benefit.

Ulrich Rathe (Senior Telecom Analyst)

Very clear. Thank you. Sorry for butting in there.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question will go to the line of Matthew Harrigan with The Benchmark Company. Your line is open.

Matthew Harrigan (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. Two questions. One on Formula E and then on 5G, both consumer and business services. When that other Liberty bought Formula 1, it was pretty apparent that some of the practices under Ecclestone were not optimal on social media, promotion and sponsorship, etc., imbalances with Ferrari and between the structure of the teams. What do you think the missteps in the past have been, and what do you think you can do to elicit more interest and enhance the team values as well?

Because that was clearly one of the things that Liberty did right on Formula 1. How do you assess kind of the competitive position? I know it's very different, but kind of Formula E relative to Formula 1 in terms of the very long-term potential. Secondly, Mike, you've been very vocal about 5G is kind of in table stakes on the consumer side, very difficult to monetize, disappointing in the U.S. as well, whereas network slicing, you've got a lot of opportunities on the business services side. Is there anything happening with better integration of AI and the handsets, say, complexity or even like 8K or whatever makes people want to stream more on 5G mobile that would finally enable you and others to kind of benefit from the rising tide on better monetization for the European consumer? Thank you.

Mike Fries (CEO)

Thanks, Matt.

On the 5G point, I would say there are two versions of 5G. Pretty much everybody, with the exception of a handful of operators, maybe one in the U.S. and a handful of operators in Europe, are operating under the less robust version of that. The second and more robust version, 5GSA, is in our sights. We're all anxious and working towards getting our networks to 5GSA, standalone 5G, which has many benefits, operating benefits, even some cost benefits, but also could lead to the kind of things you're describing on the consumer side. I'll also tell you that almost every operator will agree, I think, that the main revenue-generating benefits of 5G will be in the enterprise area, the ability to slice networks, the ability to have mobile private networks, the ability to provide solutions on the edge.

These are all things that 5G facilitates in the B2B side of the equation, and that is real. Those applications are real. Yeah, we're optimistic that over time, as we all get to 5G standalone, which is the true 5G, that that will open up opportunities in the consumer space. It is kind of table stakes long-term. I think the real benefits will be in the enterprise side of the business, and that's really where I think long-term the opportunity resides. On the 4G question, look, Formula 1 is a juggernaut. It is an incredible business. I think the team on the other side of the house, if you will, has done a fantastic job. To tell you that we're going to be Formula 1 someday would, of course, be ludicrous. We're relatively small. It took Formula 1 75 years to get to where it is.

On the other hand, what I know is this, and that is there are only a handful of global racing championships around the world. We are lucky to own one. Secondly, we own one that, no pun intended, is a rocket ship. It has every car we bring out goes faster and faster. It won't be long before we're as fast as a Formula 1 car around Monaco. I can promise you that. We are doing it without slicks and without the aero packages and things like that. Just focus on the racing because that's really where I get excited, watching the cars go faster, watching dozens of overtakes on the Monaco track. I mean, this is really the exciting bit for me, is really compelling racing. That is the core reason anybody watches it and that we're invested in it.

Yes, it has a sustainability component that is fantastic. Yes, we have lots of sponsors who are excited to be part of this, and we're excited to have them. Yes, we have great manufacturers and really strong team ownership, but it's early days. The nice thing is we're in these early days at relatively low cost. I think there's nowhere to go but up. We're not trying to be Formula 1 per se. I mean, many things we do better, many things they do better. We're trying to attract a younger, more diverse audience. We're trying to change the nature of racing. I think we're well on our way. It's really exciting. Really exciting where we're heading. I think rising tides here float all boats. It's not a mutually exclusive zero-sum game with F1.

I think we both can thrive here in this global racing marketplace.

Matthew Harrigan (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks, Mike. Congratulations on Sunrise. That really worked out well.

Mike Fries (CEO)

Thanks, Matt.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question will go to the line of David Wright with Bank of America. Your line is open.

David Wright (Managing Director and Head of European Telecoms Equity Research)

Yeah. Hi, guys. I think we've covered Holland now. Just, I guess, a question on the NetCo, and just a super quick aside on Formula E. The NetCo, I mean, Test Chairman has obviously indicated an H2 strategic review to be communicated, and then there could obviously be some moves alongside that. That means you kind of have to wait a little. I'm just wondering how comfortable you guys are waiting because one of the objectives of NetCo was always to provide a vehicle to potentially consolidate the U.K. U.K. competition is hitting you guys very hard now.

It's hitting everyone very hard. I think the general view is the sooner that consolidation comes, the better. Of course, it speeds up your time to market, and you've obviously just brought back the nexfibre targets a little bit. I'm just wondering how comfortable you are kind of sitting on the sidelines when arguably you guys are running behind target and need to move a little quicker. Just on Formula E, yeah, I did notice the fairly huge departure of McLaren, who prioritized Formula 1. That is obviously a marquee brand. I'm just wondering, do you guys have any opportunity to sort of was there any opportunity to keep them involved or even bring them back? That seemed like quite a big loss for the sort of for the branding of the sport. Maybe I'm wrong on that. Thanks.

Mike Fries (CEO)

I think you're touching on the nature of the sport, which is there's flux, and it's fluid. McLaren has been a great race team owner for quite some time, but they're not a manufacturer. There are no McLaren engines. It's not like Porsche or Jaguar. McLaren is really a brand that owns a racing team. We think that's a loss, no question. We love Zach, and I think Zach loves us, that we will be able to fill that slot with compelling owners. I can't speak about it here, but we're well underway to making that happen. Yeah, it's certainly a loss. He had to manage his own business, and he's got sponsors and financial questions he has to answer. I don't think it was he doesn't like Formula E.

I think he had to choose, if you will, where he was going to allocate capital. I think some of that capital might have gotten a little smaller than he thought, and he made some moves. Anyway, on the bigger issue around NetCo, I would say the following. Yes, the market is evolving, and certainly it would be potentially better to be front and center with our original plans. However, nothing prevents us from entering into strategic dialogue with operators around things like consolidation. I'll remind you that the up acquisition we did earlier in the year was done by nexfibre and VMO2. We did not have a NetCo in that instance. We still have a very large broadband base. We have an 18 million home network or 16 wholly-owned.

There are unlikely to be significant developments in the rationalization of AltNet or fiber in this market that we are not part of in some way. I do believe that Telefónica would answer that question similarly, which is we will stay opportunistic, and we will take action if things are presented to us that require immediate action, where we will evaluate those. That is where we sit. I am still optimistic and alluded to is active and vibrant market, and we are a major player in it. I think while we are causing the specific NetCo stake sale, we are by no means shutting down our strategic brains here and we'rer closing doors.

David Wright (Managing Director and Head of European Telecoms Equity Research)

Okay. Thanks for taking the questions, Mike.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our last question will go to the line of James Ratzer with New Street Research. Your line is open.

James Ratzer (Partner and Head of European Communication Services Research)

Yes. Thank you very much indeed.

Yeah, good afternoon, Mike. I just had one question, please, which is if I look at VodafoneZiggo, you've obviously been facing some broadband customer losses there for a few quarters now, and you've now decided to kind of react with a new strategy to reprice on the front book. If I look at the U.K., you've now just had 44,000 broadband losses this quarter. I mean, if that were to continue as well, I mean, it would seem like some of the one-touch switching effect is going to continue at least into Q2. At some point, do you need to consider a similar type of strategic shift on pricing in the U.K. as well? Thank you.

Mike Fries (CEO)

I think it's premature to address that. I think Lutz would say, and I think our partners would agree that we'll be agile as the year unfolds.

We're still adding customers in our nexfibre marketplace. We think that accelerates. That is a consistent quarterly net add in the two-plus million homes where we are now penetrating greenfield markets, if you will. We think that is a significant driver of growth for us. We will have to monitor the losses. In relation to the sort of plans and techniques that Lutz was referencing here, now that we understand One Touch switch, we are preparing to address that in a much more effective and proactive way. Let's see how things unfold. I think the move in the Dutch market was also probably long overdue in the sense that we do have the highest ARPU there, that we did not have a we did not have conviction around how to retain customers and grow the customer base for quite some time.

We were sort of floating an easy target. I think what Stephen's brought is a much more pointed and fierce strategy about winning again. That is always a good posture to have. I think I and Margarita, I believe, are comfortable with the posture that they are putting forward. Let us see how those results unfold. We are optimistic.

James Ratzer (Partner and Head of European Communication Services Research)

Got it. Thank you. Does that mean you feel that you can probably get back to a kind of customer stability in the U.K. without having to make major changes to the front book pricing?

Mike Fries (CEO)

At this point, yes. That is what we are anticipating through the course of the year. That is correct. I mean, we have been growing fixed ARPU every quarter. I mean, eight, 10 quarters in a row, we have had a nice uptick in fixed ARPU.

Certainly, that's our budget for the rest of the year is to continue doing that.

James Ratzer (Partner and Head of European Communication Services Research)

Got it. Thank you very much.

Mike Fries (CEO)

I think that's time. Yeah. You got it, James. I think that's time. Listen, as always, we appreciate you engaging with us, taking the time to call with us. Lots of data, lots of information. We are always here to support you, answer any questions you have. It's important to us that you get to what you need to understand the story and the stock and the valuation. I'll just simply say we as a team are completely aligned, completely focused on our strategy here. You can hold us accountable to all the things on those slides because we are working on them 24/7, and we look forward to keeping you posted on that. We will speak to you soon. Thanks very much.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Liberty Global's first quarter 2025 investor call. As a reminder, a replay of the call will be available in the investor relations section of Liberty Global's website. There you can also find a copy of today's presentation materials.