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    Lucid Group (LCID)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 9, 2025
    Pre-Earnings Price$34.60Last close (Sep 9, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$39.80Last close (Sep 11, 2024)
    Price Change
    $5.20(+15.03%)
    • Lucid's advanced technology and in-house powertrain and battery capabilities give them a significant cost advantage over competitors, which is expected to lead to superior profitability as they scale. ,
    • Lucid is investing heavily in expanding production capacity and launching new models, such as the Lucid Gravity SUV and a midsize EV platform, which will significantly increase their total addressable market and drive future growth. ,
    • Their focus on energy efficiency (achieving 5 miles per kilowatt-hour) reduces battery costs (which account for nearly 40% of an EV's bill of materials), giving them a competitive edge in producing cost-effective EVs and aiding in achieving cash flow positive status. ,
    • Delays in the licensing agreement with Aston Martin, causing potential postponement of anticipated revenue streams from this partnership. The CEO mentioned a "little delay on their end, which is disappointing because it's disappointing that any EV is delayed."
    • High cash burn rate and significant capital expenditure requirements, leading to ongoing reliance on external funding and potential dilution for shareholders. The company ended the quarter with $4.28 billion in liquidity, including the recent $1.5 billion capital raise, but is investing heavily in new factories and product development. Analysts estimate an implied quarterly cash burn rate of $900 million to $1 billion, with liquidity expected to last into Q4 2025. ,
    • Uncertainty around the timing of achieving profitability and positive cash flow, which is largely dependent on future product launches like the mid-sized vehicle in 2026, raising concerns about the company's ability to sustain operations without further financing. The CEO stated that achieving free cash flow positive is linked to scaling up with the mid-sized platform scheduled for late 2026. ,
    1. Capital Raise and Liquidity
      Q: What are your intentions with the capital raise?
      A: The capital raise is a strong endorsement of our long-term partnership with the Public Investment Fund (PIF) of Saudi Arabia, extending our cash runway into Q4 of 2025. We have $4.28 billion in liquidity, and with the additional $1.5 billion raised, we do not intend to draw on the $750 million term loan in the near future. This capital supports our investments in factories, new models, and global expansion ,.

    2. Path to Free Cash Flow Positive
      Q: When will you reach free cash flow positive?
      A: Our vision is to achieve free cash flow positive through scaling our business with new models like Lucid Gravity and our upcoming midsized platform. This scale, combined with our efficiency leadership, will lead us to cash flow positive as we produce cars more cost-effectively.

    3. CapEx Reduction
      Q: What are the drivers of the CapEx outlook reduction?
      A: We revised our CapEx guidance down by $200 million, primarily due to cost reduction efforts. By scrutinizing each expense, negotiating better terms, and optimizing factory build-outs and equipment procurement, we've achieved significant savings. While some CapEx has been deferred, these savings have played a bigger role.

    4. Deliveries Guidance and Demand
      Q: What is your outlook for deliveries this year?
      A: We plan to produce approximately 9,000 cars this year and are on track with that goal. Though we haven't provided specific delivery guidance, we aim to deliver a similar number of cars as we produce. We're managing inventory prudently and anticipate potential seasonal impacts in Q3, but expect an upturn in Q4.

    5. Relationship with PIF
      Q: How should we view the capital raise from PIF?
      A: The capital raise is a resounding endorsement of our long-term partnership with PIF. We are aligned with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 to transition to a sustainable economy. This partnership transcends a mere financial arrangement and reflects mutual commitment to our future products and growth.

    6. Mid-Size Vehicle and Cost Reduction
      Q: How will you reduce costs for the mid-price vehicle?
      A: We're leveraging our advanced technology to create more cost-effective variants for our midsize platform. By reducing costs in areas like bearings, copper usage, materials, and gear heat treatment, we're focusing on cost efficiency. Our current technology is manufacturable and cost-effective, and we're applying this knowledge to achieve greater efficiency for the midsize vehicle.

    7. Efficiency Improvements Impact
      Q: How does efficiency impact your cost advantage?
      A: Our unparalleled efficiency, achieving 5 miles per kilowatt hour, allows us to produce cars with smaller battery packs, significantly reducing costs. This efficiency advantage is crucial for our midsize vehicles and potential licensing deals, enabling us to offer competitive range with smaller, less expensive batteries, leading to better margins as we scale.

    8. Licensing Agreement with Aston Martin
      Q: How is the partnership with Aston Martin progressing?
      A: Despite a slight delay on their end, our relationship with Aston Martin remains solid. They are fully committed to creating the best electric hypercar using our technology. Our price range ends where theirs begins, so there is no cannibalization—only synergy and a great working relationship.

    9. Pricing Strategy and Market Demand
      Q: Will you reduce prices to drive volume?
      A: Instead of cutting prices, we've introduced the Lucid Air Pure at $69,900, fulfilling our 2020 promise. We're offering successively more accessible versions rather than price cuts, though we recognize some price sensitivity in the market.

    10. Software Updates and ADAS Features
      Q: How important are ADAS features to customers?
      A: We're making a significant push on software and ADAS features, introducing hands-free lane assist before the year ends. Enhancements in infotainment and software are personally driven by me, improving the Lucid Air and building excitement for the upcoming Lucid Gravity SUV.

    Research analysts covering Lucid Group.