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Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 revenue grew 68% YoY to $336.6M, with seventh straight record deliveries (4,078). Sequential revenue rose ~30%, and gross margin improved ~6pts QoQ, driven by Gravity mix and productivity gains; Adjusted EBITDA was -$718M and FCF was -$955M .
  • Liquidity strengthened post-quarter via an undrawn increase in the PIF delayed draw term loan from $750M to ~$2.0B, extending runway into 1H 2027; Q3-end liquidity was $4.2B (pro forma ~$5.5B) .
  • Management expects Q4 to be a turning point with Gravity the majority of production and a second shift online; full-year 2025 production is tracking “around 18,000” (low end of prior 18–20k) .
  • Strategic catalysts: NVIDIA partnership to pursue consumer Level 4 autonomy starting with L2++ upgrades next year, robotaxi program with Uber/Nuro, and brand momentum (awareness +8pts MoM) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record deliveries for the seventh consecutive quarter; ASP improved on Gravity mix; production rate picked up into quarter-end and a second shift started in October .
  • Liquidity and runway strengthened materially via undrawn ~$2.0B DDTL from PIF (runway into 1H 2027) .
  • Advancing autonomy and platform roadmap: NVIDIA L4 consumer initiative; L2++ upgrades planned by end of next year; Atlas drive unit promises lower BOM, weight, and rare-earth-free variant .
  • Management quote: “For the first time, Lucid Gravity is expected to make up the majority of our production in Q4… this quarter is going to be a turning point for Lucid.” .

What Went Wrong

  • Supply chain headwinds (magnets, aluminum supplier fire, chips) constrained Gravity ramp and impacted Q3 volumes; some software and HUD supplier issues also affected deliveries/studios timing .
  • Inventory build ahead of Q4 ramp drove impairments, weighing on gross margin despite mix gains; tariffs also pressured COGS .
  • Losses widened QoQ: Adjusted EBITDA -$718M and FCF -$955M as the company invested in midsize, Atlas, autonomy, and marketing .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)$200.038 $259.432 $336.580
GAAP Diluted EPS$(4.09) $(0.28) (pre 1:10 split) $(3.31)
Adjusted EPS (Non-GAAP)$(2.76) $(0.24) (pre 1:10 split) $(2.65)
Cost of Revenue ($M)$412.544 $531.783 $670.197
Gross Margin % (calc)-106.2% (calc from rev/CoR) -105.0% (calc) -99.1% (calc)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$(613.050) $(632.068) $(717.703)
Free Cash Flow ($M)$(622.489) $(1,012.904) $(955.468)

Notes: Q2 2025 EPS figures are pre reverse stock split; the company effected a 1:10 reverse split on Aug 29, 2025, and Q3 materials adjust prior periods presented within Q3 statements accordingly .

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Vehicles Produced (units)2,212 (excludes >600 in transit to KSA) 3,863 3,891 (+ >1,000 for KSA final assembly)
Vehicles Delivered (units)3,109 3,309 4,078
Liquidity ($B)5.76 total liquidity ~4.86 total liquidity 4.2 actual; ~5.5 pro forma incl. undrawn DDTL increase

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Production (units)FY 202518,000–20,000 “Around 18,000” (year-end) Narrowed to low end
CapEx ($B)FY 2025~$1.4 $1.0–$1.2 Lowered
Liquidity runwayN/AInto 2H 2026 Into 1H 2027 Extended
DDTL facilityN/A$750M ~$2.0B (undrawn) Increased
Q4 production mixQ4 2025N/AGravity majority of production New disclosure

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 2025 (Prev-2)Q2 2025 (Prev-1)Q3 2025 (Current)Trend
Autonomy/AIAdvanced partner discussions; KAUST MOU to access compute; L2++/L3 pathways Robotaxi partnership (Uber/Nuro) announced NVIDIA collaboration to pursue L4 consumer; L2++ upgrades by end of next year Accelerating via partnerships
Supply chainTariff/localization plans; rare-earth alternatives; Panasonic Kansas cell roadmap —Magnet, aluminum (supplier fire), chip shortages navigated; impacted Q3 outputs Persistent but managed
Gravity rampDeliveries underway; early software/HUD supplier issues addressed Sixth consecutive record deliveries Seventh record; Gravity majority of Q4; second shift live Improving ramp/mix
Liquidity/financingLiquidity $5.76B; runway into 2H 2026 Liquidity ~$4.86B DDTL to ~$2.0B; runway into 1H 2027 Runway extended
Midsize platformSOP late 2026; cannot accelerate given environment —SOP end of 2026 reiterated; sourcing costs trending below “should cost” On track, cost progress
Brand/marketingAmbassador incoming; brand push Timothée Chalamet ambassador; brand campaigns Awareness +8 pts MoM; Knicks campaign; “Driven” most successful to date Momentum building

Management Commentary

  • “For the first time, Lucid Gravity is expected to make up the majority of our production in Q4… this quarter is going to be a turning point for Lucid.” — CFO .
  • “We are pushing for L4… plan to provide significant upgrades to our advanced driving assist functionality… as early as the end of next year.” — Interim CEO on NVIDIA partnership .
  • “We have contended with three consecutive industry-wide supply chain crises: magnets, aluminum, and chips… we have been able to problem-solve our way through each one to limit impact.” — Interim CEO .
  • “We strengthened our liquidity… DDTL… from $750 million to about $2 billion… extends our runway into the first half of 2027.” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • L4 strategy/timeline: Hardware planned for midsize; first deliverable is L2++ by end of next year; Lucid holds off on exact L4 date until milestones are met; sees new end-to-end AI models and compute enabling faster progress (NVIDIA partnership) .
  • COGS and margins: Directionally lower COGS with scale and supplier BOM benefits; Q3 gross margin hindered by inventory impairment and tariffs despite mix improvement .
  • Saudi government contract: Deliveries ongoing; step-up expected with Gravity in 2026 and larger ramp with midsize .
  • Runway and converts: DDTL increase separate from 2026 convert; company plans to refinance the convert opportunistically .
  • Demand after U.S. tax credit changes: October deliveries and market share increased despite broader U.S. EV sales softness, with Gravity availability supporting demand .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to pull S&P Global consensus (EPS and revenue) for Q1–Q3 2025; no data was returned by the tool at this time. As a result, explicit beat/miss vs Street consensus cannot be quantified here. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Management indicated revenue rose ~30% sequentially and 68% YoY, consistent with reported numbers; however, no comparison to external estimates was provided by the company .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q3 showed real operating momentum: 4,078 deliveries, 30% sequential revenue growth, and improved gross margin despite inventory-related headwinds; Gravity mix is building into Q4 .
  • Liquidity de-risked: Undrawn ~$2.0B DDTL from PIF extends runway into 1H 2027, supporting the Gravity ramp and midsize development while preserving flexibility .
  • Near-term setup: Q4 is positioned as a turning point with Gravity majority of production and a second shift active; management targets ~18,000 units for 2025 (low end of prior range) .
  • Strategic upside optionality: NVIDIA (consumer L4 path), Uber/Nuro (robotaxi), and Atlas (cost/efficiency) broaden software/ADAS revenue opportunities and improve long-term unit economics .
  • Brand and demand: Awareness inflecting on larger campaigns (Chalamet, Knicks) with October deliveries and share up amid broader EV softness—supportive for Gravity ASPs and revenue .
  • Watch items: Tariffs and supply chain (magnets/aluminum/chips) remain risks; inventory/impairments affected gross margin in Q3—monitor execution of supplier normalization and BOM cost-downs in Q4/Q1 .
  • 2025 capital intensity lowered: CapEx guided down to $1.0–$1.2B (from ~$1.4B), while maintaining midsize SOP for end of 2026—positive for cash burn trajectory .

Appendices

Other relevant press releases in the period:

  • Q3 production and deliveries (produced 3,891; delivered 4,078; >1,000 for KSA) .
  • Organizational changes (engineering/digital consolidation; revenue leadership; quality leadership; departure of SVP Product/Chief Engineer) .
  • NVIDIA collaboration for consumer L4 and manufacturing AI stack .

Cross-period references:

  • Q2 2025 results (revenue $259.4M; deliveries 3,309; liquidity ~$4.86B; production outlook 18–20k) .
  • Q1 2025 results (revenue $235.0M; deliveries 3,109; total liquidity ~$5.76B; initial CapEx guide ~$1.4B; runway into 2H 2026) .