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Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue rose to $234.5M on 3,099 deliveries, marking the fourth straight quarter of record deliveries and stronger sequential growth; GAAP EPS was $(0.22) .
  • Management issued 2025 production guidance of approximately 20,000 vehicles and guided significant gross margin improvement through 2025; H1 margins near Q4 excluding a one-time benefit, improving with Gravity scale in H2 .
  • Liquidity strengthened to ~$6.13B at quarter end (plus an upsized Saudi GIB facility in Feb-2025), with runway into 2H 2026 excluding SIDF/MISA benefits, a key catalyst for de-risking capital needs .
  • CEO transition: Marc Winterhoff (COO) named Interim CEO; Peter Rawlinson becomes Strategic Technical Advisor to the Chairman—management framed strategy continuity and a sharper focus on scale, technology licensing, and cost .
  • Stock reaction catalysts: Gravity ramp/marketing push, 2025 production target, margin trajectory commentary, and technology licensing pipeline with large OEMs under discussion .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record deliveries and sequential growth: Q4 deliveries 3,099 (up 79% YoY and 11% QoQ) and revenue $234.5M; four consecutive quarters of record deliveries .
  • Gravity demand and mix quality: Orders “exceeded expectations,” many configured >$120K, with >2/3 opting for 7-seater; majority of orders are new to the brand .
  • Liquidity runway extended: $6.13B liquidity at quarter end; renewed and upsized GIB facility to SAR 1.9B ($507M) improving liquidity; runway into 2H 2026 excluding SIDF/MISA .
    • Quote: “We expect our current liquidity will now give us runway into the second half of 2026…” — Gagan Dhingra .

What Went Wrong

  • Gross margins remain deeply negative: Q4 GAAP gross margin was -89%; excluding a one-time net supply recovery, gross margin was -108% and similar to Q3 .
  • Continued heavy cash burn: Q4 free cash flow was -$824.8M; FY 2024 FCF -$2.90B .
  • Regulatory/tariff uncertainty: Management highlighted potential 7–12% gross margin impact if credits/tariffs shift, though mitigation actions are underway (localization, supply optimization) .

Financial Results

Income Statement and EPS (USD)

MetricQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$172.7 $200.6 $200.0 $234.5
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.30) $(0.34) $(0.41) $(0.22)
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)N/A$(0.29) $(0.28) $(0.22)

Notes:

  • Q4 revenue includes $40.8M from a related party .

KPIs and Liquidity

KPIQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Vehicles Produced (Units)1,728 2,110 1,805 3,386
Vehicles Delivered (Units)1,967 2,394 2,781 3,099
Total Liquidity ($USD Billions)~$5.03 ~$4.28 ~$5.16 ~$6.13
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$(714.9) $(741.3) $(622.5) $(824.8)

Margins

MetricQ4 2024
GAAP Gross Margin (%)-89% (with one-time net supply recovery)
Gross Margin ex one-time (%)-108% (similar to Q3)

Balance Sheet Highlights (FY End)

MetricFY 2024
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)$1,606.9
Short-term Investments ($USD Millions)$2,424.1
Long-term Investments ($USD Millions)$1,012.2
Total Liquidity (Mgmt) ($USD Billions)~$6.13
Inventory ($USD Millions)$407.8
Long-term Debt ($USD Millions)$2,002.2

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Vehicle Production (Units)FY 2025N/A~20,000 New
Gross Margin TrajectoryFY 2025N/ASignificant improvement vs 2024; H1 near Q4 ex one-time; improves H2 with Gravity scaling New
CapEx ($)FY 2025$1.0B guided for 2024 (actual $883.8M) ~$1.4B (AMP-2 CBU factory, Atlas at AMP-1, retail infra) Raised vs prior year level
OpEx as % RevenueFY 2025N/AImprove >100 percentage points New
Liquidity RunwayThroughN/AInto 2H 2026, excl. SIDF/MISA; upsized GIB facility adds ~$240M New/Extended

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Gravity launch & demandSOP “this year”; opened order book; momentum in deliveries Orders exceeded expectations; many configs >$120K; >2/3 7-seater; gradual ramp prioritizing showroom/test cars; capacity-constrained early Strengthening demand; disciplined ramp
Technology licensingStrategic tech arrangement (Aston Martin referenced generally) Multiple large OEMs in discussions; some “far along”; licensing Zeus now and Atlas later Accelerating pipeline
Margins/costCost optimization gaining momentum Q4 GM -89%; ex one-time -108%; 2025 significant improvement; H1 near Q4 (ex); H2 better with scale Improving path (H2 leverage)
Liquidity & capitalPIF-backed raises ($1.0B Q1; $1.5B commitment; $1.75B Oct raise) ~$6.13B liquidity; GIB facility upsized to SAR 1.9B; runway into 2H 2026 Enhanced runway
Tariffs/IRA creditsN/APotential 7–12% GM impact; mitigation via localization/supply optimization; new US graphite deal Monitoring/mitigating headwinds
AI/ADASN/AHands-free driving rollout targeted “later this year”; evaluating AV approaches (partnering vs in-source) Feature cadence increasing
Regional mixN/ASaudi deliveries to be smaller share in 2025 as NA grows; long-term Saudi agreement mainly Midsize & Gravity NA mix increasing
Midsize programOn track; future program mentioned SOP late 2026; both AMP-1 (US) and AMP-2 (Saudi) to produce Execution milestones advancing

Management Commentary

  • “We expect to produce approximately 20,000 vehicles [in 2025]…another big year…full year of Lucid Gravity…more maturity in the business.” — Marc Winterhoff .
  • “Gross margin for the first half of 2025 is expected to be near the levels of Q4 ’24, excluding the onetime favorable recovery benefit…then significantly improve with scale in the second half.” — Gagan Dhingra .
  • “We are in constant discussions with additional partners…expecting deals to close soon…current discussions are about the Zeus powertrain…and future…around the Atlas motor.” — Marc Winterhoff .
  • “Due to our cost transformation efforts and cash management, we expect our current liquidity will now give us runway into the second half of 2026…” — Gagan Dhingra .

Q&A Highlights

  • Gravity capacity vs demand: Near-term supply/capacity-constrained; production ramp dictates volumes within 20,000 guidance; strong early order book despite limited marketing .
  • Tariffs/IRA credits: Combined potential GM impact 7–12%; mitigation via localization and supply chain optimization (e.g., US graphite deal) .
  • Technology licensing: Multiple large OEMs engaged; some discussions advanced; licensing can monetize current Zeus and future Atlas tech .
  • AI/ADAS: Hands-free driving targeted for rollout later this year; evaluating modern AV approaches amid shifting goalposts .
  • Regional strategy/Saudi: 2025 mix shifts more toward North America; long-term Saudi government agreement mainly Midsize and Gravity; both AMP-1 and AMP-2 will produce Midsize .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for EPS and revenue comparisons was unavailable due to access limits at time of analysis; consequently, we cannot determine beat/miss against SPGI consensus for Q4/Q3/Q2. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global, but were unavailable at time of request.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Gravity is the 2025 growth engine: order quality and mix are favorable; expect H1 margin pressure from ramp, then H2 improvement with scale and marketing push .
  • Cost and margin trajectory: despite deeply negative Q4 margins, management guided significant improvement in 2025 and highlighted scale, mix, and BOM/conversion cost reductions as drivers .
  • Liquidity runway de-risks near-term capital needs: ~$6.13B liquidity plus upsized GIB facility; runway into 2H 2026 excluding SIDF/MISA; focus shifts to execution rather than financing .
  • Technology licensing optionality: ongoing discussions with large OEMs present non-automotive revenue pathways; near-term deals could be catalysts .
  • Regulatory headwinds monitored and mitigated: potential 7–12% GM impact if credits/tariffs change; localization and supply optimizations underway .
  • Midsize platform is the medium-term thesis: SOP late 2026 with dual-plant production; larger TAM and brand-building via Gravity marketing should feed Midsize launch .
  • Near-term trading considerations: watch for Gravity showroom/test-drive ramp, marketing events in late Q1, and any licensing deal announcements; margin commentary in Q1/Q2 could drive sentiment given H1 margin setup .

Citations:

  • Q4/FY results press release and 8-K:
  • Q4 production/deliveries PR:
  • Q4 call transcript (prepared remarks & Q&A):
  • Q3 2024 PR/8-K:
  • Q2 2024 PR/8-K:
  • Q1 2024 PR/8-K:
  • GIB facility renewal: