Lear - Earnings Call - Q4 2020

Transcript

Speaker 0

Good morning and welcome to Lear Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year twenty twenty Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Alicia Davis, Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations.

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Kate. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for Lear's fourth quarter and full year twenty twenty earnings call. Presenting today are Ray Scott, Lear President and CEO and Jason Cardew, Senior Vice President and CFO. You can find a copy of the presentation that accompanies their remarks at ir.leer.com. Following prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q and A.

Before Ray begins, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that as we conduct this call, we will be making forward looking statements to assist you in understanding Lear's expectations for the future. As detailed in our safe harbor statement on Slide two, our actual results could differ materially from these forward looking statements due to many factors discussed in our latest 10 ks and other periodic reports. I also want to remind you that during today's presentation, we will refer to non GAAP financial metrics. You are directed to the slides in the appendix of our presentation for the reconciliation of non GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. The agenda for today's call is on Slide three.

First, Ray will review highlights from the quarter and full year and provide a business update. Jason will then review our fourth quarter financial results, 2021 outlook and 2021 through 2023 backlog. Finally, Ray will offer some concluding remarks. Following the formal presentation, we would be happy to take your questions. Now I'd like to invite Ray to begin.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Alicia, and good morning, everyone. Now if you could please turn to Slide five. I'm going to provide a brief overview of our fourth quarter and full year financial results. We finished the year strong with sales of $5,200,000,000 and core operating earnings of $330,000,000 in the fourth quarter. Adjusted operating margin was 6.3% and EPS was $3.66 For the full year, sales were $17,000,000,000 and core operating earnings were $614,000,000 I'm very proud of everything the team accomplished during a very challenging year.

We delivered solid operating performance, won significant new business in both business segments, and continued to execute on our key strategic growth objectives, which will position the company for long term success. Slide six provides some twenty twenty business highlights. Lear sales grew faster than industry production by six percentage points, reflecting above market growth in both of our business segments. Our E Systems business, which grew 10 percentage points faster than the market in 2020, is benefiting from the shift to electric vehicles, a trend that we expect will support significant above market growth for the next ten years and beyond. Despite a slowdown in the overall quoting activity in 2020 related to the pandemic, today we are announcing 2,800,000,000 of backlog, which reflects conquest wins in seating and significant new awards in electrification.

Jason will discuss the backlog in more detail later in the presentation. Last year, we won business on significant electrification platforms, including the highly complex battery disconnect unit with General Motors for the GMC Hummer EV, and a plug board connector for Volkswagen modular electric vehicle platform that connects the battery to several high voltage wire harnesses. The engineering work we are doing on these programs for GM and Volkswagen is expected to create opportunities to win additional business as derivatives are added to these new EV platforms. We also won business with a customer who requested not to be named to provide high voltage and low voltage wiring harnesses for a new electric vehicle launching this year. Finally, we received over 60 awards in 2020, including the JD Power Quality Awards in Seating and the PACE Award in E Systems that we noted earlier in this year.

Recognizing Lear for our ESG efforts, operational excellence, innovation, quality and safety. Slide seven highlights a few of our key program changeovers in Seating as well as new program launches that are part of our 2021 backlog. Over the last ten years, we have made targeted investments to increase our vertical integration capabilities. As a result, we have the most complete capabilities of any seat supplier, which is apparent in the diversity of our products we are launching in 2021. In addition to our traditional JIP business, we make components such as leather, fabric, foam and structures, both for internal use and for sale to our seating competitors.

These component capabilities, combined with our Intu suite of technology products, allow us to partner with our customers early in the vehicle design and development process, providing us with a distinct competitive advantage as we bid on new business. Also of note this year is the launch of our first Configur Plus product for the new Volkswagen commercial van in Europe. We have another Configure Plus program launching with a North American OEM in 2023. And many other OEMs have expressed interest in this technology. We also are exploring additional applications for our Configurplus technology beyond the traditional automotive, such as for the last mile delivery service providers, logistic providers, and autonomous vehicles.

Slide eight highlights key upcoming E Systems launches, which in addition to our traditional product lines, includes new electrification and connectivity business. Our electrification launches include nine separate programs across Europe, Asia and North America. I will talk more about our product focus areas in electrification on the next few slides. Slide nine highlights Lear electrification product portfolio and shows how this business has developed since we were one of the industry's first suppliers of high voltage wiring and charging systems for over ten years now. In 02/2008, GM chose Lear to supply the electrical distribution system for the Chevy Volt, where we developed the first mass market onboard charger and supplied high voltage wiring and connectors.

By 2010, we were supplying five customers with electrification content. Over the past few years, we conducted an extensive study of the market, concentrating on growth prospects and competitive dynamics. Through these efforts, we've identified the product segments where we can leverage our core capabilities and generate attractive financial returns on a sustained basis. This exercise culminated in Lear choosing three product families on which to focus: power electronics, battery management systems, and high voltage wiring and connection systems. Today, Lear is the only tier one supplier with a full range of capabilities and expertise to be a full architecture solutions provider for both electrical distribution systems and power electronics.

Using our vast experience, we can integrate different functions and different pieces of the electronics in the vehicle, reducing weight and increasing efficiency, which translates into longer EV ranges and faster charging. And the trend towards highly integrated power electronic solutions plays well to our strengths. And we can offer different pieces of that portfolio in unique ways to solve customer needs. Most high voltage connectors are being customized for applications to support unique designs at each OEM. These connectors require greater complexity leverages our position as the provider of the highest power density solution in the industry.

As the industry transitions to electric vehicles, we're in a strong competitive position and stand to benefit as high power connector catalogs develop over time. Battery management systems are increasingly critical components for electrical vehicles that ensure that the battery is operating as efficiently as possible, which maximizes driving range. These highly software intensive products have millions of lines of code. And our experience here, combined with our domain knowledge, will be invaluable as software continues to replace hardware in the electrical architecture. In 2021, we will be providing electrification content to 17 different customers on over 90 vehicle models, reflecting significant expansion and diversification of our customer base.

Based on business we have already been awarded, we will have a very active launch schedule for the foreseeable future. I'm really excited about the opportunities this provides for our E Systems business. Okay, slide 10 depicts the key components required for a high voltage electrical architecture, which we reviewed in detail on our third quarter earnings call. We are showing this slide again today to reinforce how we have narrowed our focus on the areas where we can best leverage our core competencies. As shown earlier in the presentation, we have upcoming launches in all of these product areas.

On Slide 11, we highlight the growth potential in electrification. In 2020, electrification sales totaled $270,000,000 This year, we expect this business to grow to almost $400,000,000 And within three years, we expect the business to grow to $700,000,000 All of this business has already been awarded. Looking out a little further, we are targeting 1,400,000,000 of business by 2026, which would represent a 32% compounded annual growth rate in electrification from 2020 and will contribute three percentage points of growth over market for E Systems overall. This growth reflects both traditional customers who are investing in this new electric vehicle offerings as well as companies new to the industry. As shown here, annual quoting activities for electric vehicles continues to accelerate.

We expect quoting activity in 2020 will increase throughout the year and as we pursue additional opportunities with existing new customers. Win rates on pursued business are targeted in the 25% to 35% range. That is consistent with our historical levels, which will result in a continued growth over market for our E Systems business and for Lear overall. As OEMs increasingly commonize their new vehicle architectures, we find those awards to be particularly valuable. We are engineering and manufacturing components such as the main battery connectors and the battery disconnect units that are being designed in the customer's basic battery packs.

Engineering unique designs, executing for our customers, and providing differentiated technology is expected to support future growth as these core elements are reused for different vehicles on common architectures. We are working with many potential customers, including new electric vehicle companies and technology enablers, such as battery makers, to show them the value of our technology offerings. Our many years of experience in electrification and the family of products we have developed provides a platform for growth with companies entering the vehicle electrification market. Recently, we secured a new electric vehicle customer who valued our experience, capabilities and the ability to ramp production quickly, integrating both wiring and connection systems and building on our global footprint. While this NEV manufacturer has asked us to keep this program confidential, we expect similar opportunities to present themselves going forward as start ups and established OEMs prioritize industry expertise, engineering capabilities and speed to market.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Jason for a financial review.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Ray. Slide 13 shows vehicle production and key exchange rates for the fourth quarter. During the fourth quarter, global vehicle production was up approximately 2% compared to 2019. On a Lear sales weighted basis, global production declined by 2%. The reduction of 2% reflects both Lear's regional mix of business and Lear's fourth quarter fiscal calendar, which had three fewer days in 2020 compared to 2019.

In North America, production was relatively flat compared to a year ago. Production on our top platforms was up 5% as the prior year period was negatively impacted by the GM strike. In Europe, industry production was up 1%, and in China, production increased 5%. From a currency standpoint, the U. S.

Dollar weakened against our major currencies. Slide 14 highlights Lear's growth over market in the fourth quarter and full year 2020. In the fourth quarter, sales grew above market in both Seating and E Systems as well as in each of our major markets. Total company growth over market was eight percentage points, driven primarily by the impact of new business in both segments. E Systems growth over market was 11 percentage points in the quarter, and Seating outgrowth was seven percentage points.

On a regional basis, North America growth over market benefited from the nonrecurrence of the GM strike in 2019 and new business awards. In the rest of the world, new business awards were the primary driver of growth over market. For the full year, growth over market was six percentage points, reflecting 10 percentage points in E Systems and four percentage points in Seating. Slide 15 highlights our financial results for the fourth quarter. Our sales increased 9% to $5,200,000,000 Excluding the impact of foreign exchange and acquisitions, sales increased by 6%, primarily reflecting the addition of new business in both business segments.

Core operating earnings were $330,000,000 up $89,000,000 The increase in earnings reflects the margin accretive backlog and positive operating performance in both business segments, partially offset by net COVID related costs. In 2019, fourth quarter operating earnings were negatively impacted by lower volumes associated with the GM strike. Adjusted operating margins were 6.3% in the fourth quarter compared to 5% a year ago. Adjusted earnings per share were 3.66 up 39% from a year ago, primarily reflecting higher earnings. Fourth quarter free cash flow was $234,000,000 compared to $291,000,000 in 2019.

The decrease in free cash flow primarily reflects the reversal of COVID-nineteen austerity measures, which were implemented earlier in the year to conserve cash. Slide 16 highlights our financial results for the full year. Sales, earnings and free cash flow decreased significantly from a year ago, primarily reflecting significant volume reductions related to COVID-nineteen. Despite a reduction in core operating earnings of almost $700,000,000 the actions we took to preserve cash allowed us to generate free cash flow of over $200,000,000 in 2020. Slide 17 explains the fourth quarter year over year variance in sales and adjusted operating margins in the Seating segment.

Sales in the quarter were $3,900,000,000 up 7.5% from the 2019. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, sales were up 5.5%, reflecting the benefit of new business. Seating margins were 7.6% compared to 5.9% last year, reflecting positive operating performance, benefits from the nonrecurrence of the GM strike in 2019 and the margin accretive backlog, partially offset by net COVID related costs. Despite the challenges of operating in the COVID-nineteen pandemic, our Seating business continues to post strong financial results. Over the past decade, our Seating business has consistently delivered returns in excess of our cost of capital and generated strong free cash flow, allowing us to continue investing in this business to further strengthen our industry leading position.

Slide 18 explains the fourth quarter year over year variance in sales and adjusted operating margins in our E Systems segment. Sales in the fourth quarter were $1,300,000,000 up 13% from the 2019. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, sales were up 9%, driven primarily by the impact of new business and our growing electrification business. Core operating earnings increased from $92,000,000 or 7.7% of sales in the 2019 to $103,000,000 or 7.6% of sales in 2020. The increase in earnings resulted primarily from improved net operating performance, including restructuring savings and the benefit of new business.

We continue to make progress on our overall E Systems margin improvement plan. Despite the challenging operating environment and resulting premium costs, we were able to deliver margins largely in line with the 2019 while funding additional engineering investments that support our fast growing backlog, especially in electrification. Slide 19 shows the assumptions for global vehicle production volumes and currencies that form the basis of our 2021 full year outlook. We base our production outlook on several sources, including internal estimates, customer production schedules and IHS forecasts. At the midpoint of our guidance range, we estimate a 9% increase in global production or approximately 13% on a Leer sales weighted basis.

By region, we expect production to increase 20% in North America, 10% in Europe and 3% in China. At the high end of our range, we are forecasting global production to increase by 12%, two percentage points lower than IHS's January forecast. Our vehicle production outlook reflects some anticipated disruptions to near term production resulting from shortages of certain electronic components as well as other risks posed by the ongoing COVID-nineteen pandemic. From a currency perspective, our 2021 outlook assumes an average euro exchange rate of $1.18 per euro and an average Chinese RMB exchange rate of RMB6.65 to the dollar, both up about 4% from 2020. Slide 20 provides our financial outlook for 2021.

Our sales guidance is $19,800,000,000 to $20,800,000,000 an increase of 19% at the midpoint compared to 2020. Excluding the favorable impact of foreign exchange, sales are expected to be up 17 at the midpoint of our guidance, reflecting primarily higher production volumes and the benefit of our $1,000,000,000 backlog in 2021. We expect sales to grow faster than the market again in 2021, with total company outgrowth of approximately four to five percentage points and E Systems outgrowth of approximately 10 percentage points. Core operating earnings are forecasted to be in the range of $1,130,000,000 to $1,300,000,000 The midpoint of our guidance range reflects full year Seating and E Systems adjusted operating margins in the low to mid-seven percent range. Segment operating margins in the first quarter are likely to be lower than our full year outlook, primarily reflecting premium costs and production disruptions associated with the industry wide semiconductor shortage.

At this point, we expect the disruptions on a relative basis to have a more significant impact on E Systems than Seating. Restructuring costs are expected to be approximately $100,000,000 in 2020. Capital spending is forecasted at $600,000,000 or about 3% of sales. Free cash flow is forecasted to be in the range of five fifty million dollars to $700,000,000 One final item I want to highlight is that we expect our headquarter spending to increase to approximately $70,000,000 per quarter in 2021, reflecting the unwinding of austerity measures, increased investments in IT and higher compensation expense. Slide 21 shows our twenty twenty one to twenty twenty three backlog of $2,800,000,000 It's important to note that our sales backlog includes only awarded programs net of any lost business and programs rolling off and excludes pursued business and net new business in our nonconsolidated joint ventures.

Backlog increased by more than $100,000,000 compared to last year despite pandemic shutdowns impacting chlorine activity last spring and lower industry volume assumptions. From a segment perspective, our backlog is split roughly twothree, onethree between Seating and E Systems, respectively. The Seating backlog includes a portion of the Conquest awards we announced last year as well as our first Configur plus product launch for a VW commercial van, which starts production later this year in Europe. In our E Systems segment, we continue to win new business aligned with emerging industry trends, especially in vehicle electrification, which represents approximately 50% of the backlog in that segment. Consistent with historical experience, we expect the third year of our backlog to continue to grow as there are still several programs that we are pursuing that we'll launch in 2023.

Now I'll turn it back to Ray for some closing thoughts.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jason. Turning now to Slide '23. It is a very exciting time in the auto industry as global production volumes are growing and the transition to electric vehicles is accelerating. Lear is well positioned to benefit from both of these trends, and I am very optimistic about the year ahead. We have strong momentum in both our business segments, and we plan to continue to invest in our core businesses.

Areas of focus include strengthening our vertical integration capabilities in Seating to deepen and widen the moat around the business to protect our competitive advantage, growing our wiring business and connection systems business and continuing to accelerate our position in electrification, and across both businesses, investing in our operations to remain the leader in operational excellence. As part of this strategy, we're going to concentrate on the types of investments that have worked for us in the past. We are planning to hold an Investor Day in the fourth quarter, at which point members of the Lear senior management team will provide an in-depth review of the company's long term vision and growth strategy, product segments and financial objectives. And I hope we can do this in person. And now we'd be happy to take your questions.

Thank you.

Speaker 0

We will now begin the question and answer session. Our first question is from Rod Lache from Wolfe Research. Go ahead.

Speaker 4

Good morning, everybody. I had a couple of questions on, EV. Just first of all, look. Externally, it looks like the landscape of, potential customers for you is, is expanding almost every day. There's another company that's going public, and we've estimated that they've raised something like $40,000,000,000, new entrants over the past year or so.

So we're just hoping you might be able to characterize what the process is for you, as as you're looking at, at this, this expanded universe. Do you have to expand your application engineering team to support a lot more platforms? What's the what do you do you pick and choose? How how do you guys approach this?

Speaker 2

Well, yeah, it's it's that's a good question. And and we have spent a significant amount of time given the complexity and the number of new entrants in electrification. And I think, first of all, Rod, when you think back, it wasn't that long ago, we're talking about quoting $300,000,000 of business. And we talked about being very selective in growing our and expanding our customer base. And I think we've done a remarkable job.

I think back to when we were on five different customers and now we're expanded that to 17, and we were selective through that process, really focused on different components that we felt we could scale and that as derivatives were being introduced, we could, given that we meet all the criteria from the customer, expand that product line across multiple platforms. As new entrants are coming in, we do study and do a lot of work around the long term viability, the strategic nature of the new entrants into the market and where we think they'll be positioned long term. And we do take that into consideration when we look at risk and rewards on where we're going to put our capital. And so that is a part of the equation. It's something that we do consider.

And I think we've been very successful. If you look at the expansion of customers, we've been very selective. We have invested where we think we can win and put ourselves in a position, like I said, Rod, what's interesting is this battery disconnect unit, it used to be originally the bulkhead disconnect unit that we designed for the original Volt. And we've been in this business for well over thirteen years. So we have a tremendous amount of experience around the technology and innovation within the electrification area where we focus our products.

And now it's the battery disconnect. What we're hopeful on the Hummer, as that platform accelerates across different vehicle lines, that we put ourselves in the best position to win those derivatives. And that's how we look at it, Rod. And then as new customers come in, in a very similar approach, how can we best position our products where we create value and create longer term scale within that vehicle line.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you. And just to follow-up on that, you've mentioned before will content for you on an EV is over $2,000. Can you just maybe characterize what your average content might be or or the number of vehicles you might be on when you get to if if you hit that 1,400,000,000 revenue? And and I was wondering if Jason might be able to just give us a quick word on, you know, the semiconductor shortage.

Aside from, obviously, production volatility, are there other things that are affecting you, like premium freight or other things that might we might consider to be temporary?

Speaker 3

Yes. Maybe start with the last question first there. So we are incurring some modest premium costs. That is not the significant issue for us today. And if you look at our two business segments, in Seating, the impact of the semiconductor disruption is really driven by the lost volume.

On the E Systems side, we have that plus we do buy those parts and use them directly in components that we sell to customers. And so there's a 20 fourseven effort by Carl Esposito and the E Systems team to secure parts to protect customer production. So there's an extraordinary effort underway. And there are some premium costs. That hasn't been overly meaningful.

The bigger impact has certainly been just the variable margin associated with the lost production. But that's not to say that there isn't a bit of risk associated with that. There hasn't been a big impact. In regards to the average content, it really just it depends on the program and the customer. But typically, we're not being awarded the complete complement of power electronics, wiring, connection systems on an individual program.

So although the content opportunity is $2,000 or more on each vehicle, the average content is going to be half that in most cases. In some cases, where we're just providing connector systems, it may be $100 to $200 So there's a fairly wide range when it comes to electrification, Rod.

Speaker 2

And just to add to that, Rod, I think what's important when we talk about we're 101 with having power electronics, power distribution, and connector systems, we're not naive to think that a customer is going to source because of risk and other factors, share wallet, those type of things. The complete architecture, we do believe by having the domain knowledge and the expertise with software and the ability to drive efficiency and cost gives us an advantage on the individual components and how they quote. And so, know, we're after the whole architecture. We want to win it all. I mean, I think that'd be great.

That's how we position ourselves. However, we do put ourselves in a position where we can design the most optimal components, understanding the power distribution across those components. And so what we do when we quote, we do have the ability to understand values that reflect the component that we're quoting, like a battery charging system or a battery disconnect system or a battery management system. I mean, that expertise coupled with what we have with wiring and connectors gives us a distinct advantage. And I think through the Volkswagen award, what's beautiful about this this electrification is that it's kind of a clean sheet.

There isn't a catalog that exists. And so why the significance is so important to us on winning that that connector business with Volkswagen is because we believe there's a legacy there, that we believe that connector system will be used for years and go across multiple platforms successfully. And so having that early adopter knowledge when we were working on this thirteen years ago and being able to continue to gain experience, I think back when we were just working on a three kilowatt charger, now we're in development on a 22 kilowatt. And it's across every one of our different product lines that we're in the next generation of technology and innovation. And I believe this train is moving.

And if you're not on it, you're not going to get back on it because it's happening so quick. And so the investment we've talked about in respect to pressuring the short term margin, we're not going to take business that doesn't meet our targeted returns or exceeds them. And so what I'm excited about is that I get to see the programs that we're launching. I get to review the financials. And my commitment to the company and to our investors is that we're going be smart about where we invest.

We want to make a fair return, but we also have to focus on delivering these things and executing them to deserve the right to participate in the next generation of products. That's been our focus. I'll tell you, quoting activity we discuss daily is accelerating at such a pace. And we talked about the business we won just a month ago with a new EV that's going to be launching this year. They were thoroughly impressed with our capabilities.

And that was something that we targeted. The team did a remarkable job of gaining that business in a short period of time.

Speaker 4

Our

Speaker 0

next question is from Joseph Spak from RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Thanks, Ryan, Jason, for all the details. I guess just maybe the first question to start with the backlog, which I know was was, up versus sort of what we reported last year even though industry production was was lower. It it it does seem like maybe some of the the backlog, specifically in Seating, shifted from 'twenty one to 'twenty two. So I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about what's going on there.

And then, you know, the Electrification, sorry, E Systems backlog is, is is pretty flat. And again, I know the production is lower, but you just sort of talked about all this quoting and win activity. So is an issue where it's really going to impact that 'twenty three open year and beyond that we should see an acceleration there as you continue to report the backlog in future years?

Speaker 2

Yes. Let me start with that one, Jason, and then you can kind of talk about the seating in the system. But yes, I think the pandemic did impact the quoting activity. There was a period of time that particularly on the electrification, things were slowed down. I'm not going say impacted significantly, but did impact the timing of awards.

And obviously, when we're announcing backlog, there's a significant amount of business that we're in process right now of quoting that were, I'll say, somewhat carried over from last year. And it's a significant number. And so when we are looking at our quoting pipeline, we have done a nice job, like I said, of and we use our historical numbers in the 25% to 35% range of successful wins. We want to win it off if financially if it financially makes sense. But some of that was just due to the delay in the carryover.

But I don't again, what we're seeing is an acceleration, and we're really building up resources around what not only we're seeing today, but what we believe we're going to see in the next couple of years.

Speaker 3

In terms of the numbers, starting with Seating, 2021, I think we were estimating 08/25. In 2021, it's five fifty now. That's primarily the timing of launches. So a number of programs at the onset of COVID, there were a number of announcements where customers delayed the launch dates. And so things that were scheduled to ramp up in the fourth quarter of last year and the 2021 got pushed into the 2021, a number of programs.

And so you see kind of the corresponding benefit from that in 2022. So that's the main factor going on there. In terms of E Systems, I think we're at the cusp of an opportunity to increase the backlog. And you see the relative light 2021, there's still a lot that we're 2023, I should say, there's still a lot of programs that we're quoting. And we were awarded a program in December that is launching this year.

I think there could be more opportunities like that, that we see in 'twenty two and 'twenty three driving the backlog up further. And then certainly, just this overall explosion in opportunity on the coal pipeline and electrification is going to drive the backlog up in E Systems. I think, as Ray said, there was a slow period in the 2020, where there wasn't as much business awarded. And that's weighed on the amount that was sourced last year. But there's a lot going on now, and there's an ample opportunity to continue driving the backlog up.

Speaker 5

Yes. It seem like the design cycle for electric programs is faster. Second question is, mentioned about sort of investment to support the electrification initiative. I think you even said there was a little bit of a headwind in the fourth quarter. Maybe you could quantify But I guess, you know, more importantly, how do you view that in in in '21, and going forward to support all their efforts?

And then, maybe just also, while we're on 21 E Systems margins, is there a, not a dollar impact, but is there a margin impact from copper that's sort of embedded in the guidance?

Speaker 3

Yes. So in terms of the engineering investment and I'd really put kind of engineering and launch together. We've got 45 to 50 basis points of incremental costs in E Systems in 'twenty one as a result of that. On commodity side, it's about a 20 basis point impact for the recent increase in copper, and that's mostly transitory. 90% of our copper exposure is passed through to our customers.

There's a quarter lag, and so there's a modest impact from that. And then the balance of the impact is from the 10% that we control. So that's the impact we've factored in, Joe, into our outlook for E Systems.

Speaker 0

Our next question is from James Picariello from KeyBanc. Previously,

Speaker 6

you separated out the E and C portion of the E Systems backlog. Can you provide that breakout within the $900,000,000 And I believe last year, E and C accounted for, what, twothree with Electrification sitting at $400,000,000 So any color there would be helpful.

Speaker 3

Yes. In Electrification, it's about $450,000,000 It's about 50% of the $900,000,000 And then we have just under $100,000,000 of connectivity. So about $540,000,000 I think, is the number between the two in the $900,000,000 backlog.

Speaker 6

Got it. Okay. And then if I look at Slide 10, as we think about Leer's capital allocation capacity, the bolt on M and A strategy component within that, are there any product verticals within that bottom portion outside of Lear's current portfolio that could make sense bringing in house one day?

Speaker 3

No, I think that we've consciously made the decision to either deemphasize or not participate in certain product categories. As we said in the prepared remarks, we spent the last two years really studying this market. And what we're looking for is an alignment of our core capabilities with where the customer needs us. And so the areas that we're investing in provide that value proposition for us. And I think that's what gives us the confidence in both the margin profile of that business longer term and our ability to generate returns on a sustained basis.

So components more closely tied to the battery We don't think we can be competitive in that. We're not going to make investments there. We think there's ample opportunities in the top part of that chart. Understood.

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yep. Thanks.

Speaker 0

Our next question is from David Kelley from Jefferies. Go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning team and thanks for

Speaker 3

taking my questions. Good morning.

Speaker 7

Just looking at the operating earnings guide, it applies a bit lower margin relative to the second half run rate. You referenced premium freight costs, but there are a number of moving parts, the COVID costs continuing, but also austerity unwind and then, of course, ramping sales. Just wondering if you could provide a bit more color on some of the puts and takes and maybe how you're thinking about cadence as some of these supply chain costs hopefully normalize in the second half of the year.

Speaker 3

David, is your question about the company overall?

Speaker 7

Yes. Thanks, Jason.

Speaker 3

Yes. So if you look at the 2020, we ran at about 6.5% total company. The biggest headwind comparing that to what we see for 2021 is really volume. So even though volumes are up year over year, compared to the second half of last year, they're actually down about 5%. And so while revenues are increasing, that's really driven by the backlog.

Backlog is rolling on at segment margins, but you have this lower volume rolling off at variable margins, again, relative to the second half of last year's run rate. COVID and other premium costs related to the semiconductor issue, we have embedded in both segments guidance. We have about a 40 basis point headwind in E Systems and 25 basis points in Seating. But relative to the second half of last year, they're actually both a bit favorable, and the company is about 15 basis points favorable from the second half run rate because of the non recurrence of the high level of COVID premium costs we incurred last year. Commodities are about a 25 basis point headwind for us relative to the second half of last year, more in Seating than in E Systems because of steel.

Engineering is about a 20 basis point headwind, really driven primarily by E Systems. And then offsetting some of that is restructuring and the net performance in the business. We have 55,000,000 of incremental restructuring savings factored into our outlook. And you do the math on that, David, you're down about 50 basis points at the midpoint of our guidance range relative to the second half run rate.

Speaker 7

Okay. Perfect. That's super helpful. And then not surprisingly, I also have an EV question. So as we reach some EV revenue scale, let's say, dollars 1,000,000,000 based on your 2025 target, A, it's higher content per vehicle.

B, I would assume product mix underlying is also favorable. I was curious how are you thinking about the margin opportunity for high voltage electrification here relative to your core Systems portfolio?

Speaker 3

Overall, it's better. And part of our goal in improving E Systems margin profile over the coming years is shifting that mix from 75 wire and connection systems and 25% electronics to 65%, 35%. That happens gradually. If you look out to 2025, I think we're approaching that target allocation. And that's a key factor that will underpin our ability to get back to 10% and beyond.

And we do see a higher margin profile in the EV business in general than we do in the segment overall. About 60% of our electrification business today is electronics, 40% is wire and connection systems. And we see that sort of continuing into the future. And that's the main factor driving the split on the business shifting more to electronics and a little bit less on wire overall.

Speaker 6

And I think just to add

Speaker 2

to that, it's why we're so confident in that business. And it really is to the point Jason mentioned. We strategically looked at that business and said it was primarily wiring. And we had some expertise in electronics, but it was a small portion of that business. So we relied heavily on the wiring.

And what we did was we said, listen, we're going to transition to, like Jason said, 75% or 80% of our business was wiring to 65%, still growing the legacy business, and we're still confident we're going to grow that business, but accelerating the electronics business where there's a larger profile and margin expansion opportunity. And what's happening is we're getting at that, if you look at the time line and our internal numbers, quicker than we anticipated. And I think on the wiring side, we've talked about this, the importance of the connectors and the engineered components. And we're also accelerating that part of our business. And so we still have a lot of work to do.

But everything that we put in place strategically to look at our business in a 65%, 35% of business between electronics and wiring is working. And so this acceleration of electrification is only helping that. And so we do believe that that will come on, and it is coming on at higher margins. And the acceleration of vertical integration and wiring is also accelerating. So that's why we're very confident in what we're doing.

And I think so far, the team has done an excellent job of executing to the plan. But like I said, we've more work to do.

Speaker 7

All right. Great. Thanks for the color.

Speaker 3

Yes, thanks.

Speaker 0

Our next question is from Dan Levy from Credit Suisse. Go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning. Thank you

Speaker 2

for Good morning. Taking the

Speaker 8

Hey, Wanted to start with seating, which people seem to forget is the vast majority of your business. So far, no questions on seating here. You know, you you talked a lot about conquest business in the past year, and I know you have, I think, the 27% or 28% share target. Maybe you could just give us a mark to market on where you stand on share gains in Seating? How much of this is reflected in the backlog?

What's the opportunity for further share gains? And as we think of that backlog coming on, I assume it's going to be hitting at a margin comparable to what you have today?

Speaker 3

Yes. So in terms of our market share, we ended 2020 at 23%. So we're still at the same rate we were previously. But we did grow share. When you look at Europe and North America combined, we grew share there.

Really, it's a matter of kind of the mix of business we have in Seating relative to the global mix. And China held up better than North America and Europe, and that weighed on the market share a bit. We have a 28% target. We are very confident in that. The Conquest wins last year and what's in the backlog this year will contribute to market share growth.

And the backlog is rolling on last year and this year at the segment margins, in some cases, slightly better than that. The main factor, of course, that will determine that is primarily the mix of vertical integration versus JIT. So a JIT program may roll on close to the lower end of our 7.5% to 8.5% operating margin target range in Seating. And a more vertically integrated program is going roll on at the higher end of that or maybe even a little bit beyond that. I think

Speaker 2

looking forward, I mean, we're last year was a good year. Frank and the team did a great job of conquest wins, net wins in respect to conquest. And then I think the year prior to that, we won around $300,000,000 And I think as we look into this year, there's opportunities for us. And I think it'd be on the lower range of if we're looking between 700,000,000 and 300,000,000, somewhere between that number of what we consider to be possibilities this year.

Speaker 8

Great. And it sounds like most of those opportunities are based on vertical integration. I mean, that's sort of the play on picking up more share here?

Speaker 2

Yes. It's I think it it goes a little bit more than that in that, you know, we talk about the vertical integration and the ability to get in and work early with the customer on design and and solve for solutions and or problems. And, we have good insight into where we think we have those opportunities. And then when I talk about those numbers, those are line of sight targets that we're working with our customer on that they've given us some indication that we have to be obviously meet all their criteria of competitiveness. But they're giving us insight into where they think we should be positioned based on their share of wallet and other factors.

And so we do have a high confidence. But again, we got to go do our job and we got to work it and make sure that we're executing. And it does play into the things that you're mentioning with having those ability to have that vertical integration does give us a competitive advantage.

Speaker 8

Great. And then just as a second question. In parallel to electrification, we've obviously seen a number of automakers talk about overhauled electrical architectures. Could you just maybe discuss what this means for you on net content? You know, as we're talking about the alteration of content opportunity, maybe give us a sense of how much that incremental content factors in con content reduction on wiring, copper, and those architectures are overhauled?

Then what you've seen from automakers who may want to bring some of the electrical architecture content in house will control more of the value add? Thank you.

Speaker 3

I'd say, just generally speaking, we're seeing stable electrical content in our core business. There may be a slight reduction in low voltage wire over the next five years. More fundamental changes to that space likely happen further out. What we've modeled is perhaps a 10% reduction over the next five to ten years in low voltage content, which is more than offset by the high voltage opportunities that we have. We don't see any risk of insourcing, if I understood the last part of your question right, on that portion of the business.

And on the power electronics side, we've focused on things that we think the customers want to buy from the outside and partner with suppliers on and align with our capabilities. So we see a very low risk of insourcing of those components.

Speaker 2

And I think when we talked earlier about how we strategically select and look at customers, it's important to point out that every customer has a different strategy. And this isn't a universal way of how they're going after electrification. And so we spend a fair amount of time where we can look at engineered components by Lear. And even though, listen, if we do value added assembly or we do build to print, we'll look at those and quote them. If it makes sense financially, then we're willing to take them.

But we are much more focused on aligning ourselves with customers their overall architecture. And so all of them are different. They're all completely different. There is no universal way of how they're looking at it. And they're all looking at it differently longer term.

And so we spend a fair amount of time looking at where we can design and engineer components that fit the architecture over a longer period of time.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thank you.

Speaker 0

Our next question is from Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan. Go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Hi, Maybe just starting with your 2021 outlook being based on 9% global industry growth versus IHS expectation for, I think, 14%. How much of that difference is a result of your specific geographic or customer weightings versus more conservative underlying industry assumptions, perhaps coming from the semiconductor shortage or other macro factors?

Speaker 3

Yes, it's 100% the latter there. So we have essentially a 5% cushion between IHS projection for the global market and what we've used to underpin our guidance. And it's a combination of three things. One, the near term issues with the semiconductor shortage. And we have seen reductions in the first quarter releases and outlooks from our customers.

If you look at IHS, just as an example, I think their recent estimate was 3% to 4% impact on the first quarter production. We're seeing more announcements beyond that. So I would say it's likely going to exceed that. So that's one factor. Second factor is just the ongoing risk of the pandemic itself.

We saw some modest disruption in production in China at the first part of the year as they went into a shutdown in certain regions, and that impacted supply. And then the third factor is just demand and how things hold up overall. We've been a bit cautious given this uncertain period we've just gone through over the last twelve months. We thought that was the prudent thing to do at this stage in the year.

Speaker 7

Very helpful. And then just in thinking about your high voltage portfolio as outlined on slide 10, do you have today all the pieces that you desire or which represent, go to market synergies with the rest of your electrification portfolio? Or are there other aspects of high voltage electrical architecture you may wish to expand into? And if so, what would be the best way to do that, do you think, organically or inorganically?

Speaker 2

Well, you know what, we have all the capabilities in what's highlighted here in Lear's portfolio. And we're obviously have developed and have been developing not just on the previous generation, but future generations in developing contracts with customers today and launching in any one of these things. To answer your question, obviously, is an important ingredient and we continue to build our capabilities and competencies around the software within those areas. That's an area of continued interest for us. We've organically done it.

But if there's an opportunity inorganically to accelerate that, that would be one opportunity. I think within connectors, connectors are very important. We have incredible capabilities within a company we purchased with Groton Hartman, with our grounding capabilities and with our power to scale capabilities. And we think that's a continued area of focus. I think within the areas that we're looking at here with power distribution, battery disconnect, battery management system, we're very well equipped to continue to be successful in those areas.

But I'd look at the, like I said, software, an important area, and the connectors. And even though we have a leading position with the capabilities I mentioned, we'd love to see that part of the portfolio accelerate.

Speaker 0

Our next question is from Evan Silverberg from Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 8

Okay. Quick question for you. Wondering what Lear's capability in flexible printed circuit boards are? And when do you see such technology entering production? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yeah. That's a good question. And we have experience. Actually, we've had a couple of development programs with some OEMs that we are working with on the technology. And we also have a partnership with a company that actually is in production.

And so from a couple of different areas, we're working on the capabilities. And we're actually going into production in a limited way this year. And so the way I look at it is, one, there's a lot of different solutions. Flat wire is one solution. I think it works nicely in certain applications.

Obviously, the traditional wiring, copper clad, Ethernet, there's all kinds of different opportunities to and the one thing we're seeing is increased demand for function and features and power solutions. And so I think it's something that makes sense. We're not seeing a significant pull from our customers. There's certain applications in the headliner, engine components, door panels, those type of things where we're working on different designs. But and there's obviously another new entrant that is really working on it.

But I do see that it makes sense in certain applications. But I also think some of the redundancy and safety mechanisms and features within the vehicle are still going to require some of the traditional wire, albeit probably more limited, and then other solutions, like I mentioned. So we're working across a vast variety of different technologies and innovation. And I think at the end of the day, to answer your question, it's going to be a combination.

Speaker 8

Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Yep. Thanks. Okay. But Okay. That's if I could, real quick, just closing comments.

What do we have one more? Okay. Just real quick, I want to thank everyone for participating today. I appreciate your time. Obviously, very exciting time in our industry.

And I'll say to the team that's on the phone, I'm very optimistic. We position ourselves to be in a great position. We have a lot of work to do, but we just have to execute. So I want to thank everyone for participating in the call and look forward to 2021.

Speaker 0

The conference has now concluded. You for attending today's presentation. May now disconnect.