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LT

LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. (LENZ)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 marked LENZ’s first quarter post-FDA approval and launch of VIZZ, with $12.5M in license revenue (no product sales until October), net loss of $16.7M ($0.59 per share), and pro forma cash of ~$324.0M to fund post-launch positive cash flow .
  • Commercial launch indicators were strong: ~2,500+ unique ECP prescribers, 40% wrote multiple prescriptions, and >5,000 paid scripts through October; ECP awareness reached ~90%, supported by ~70,000 samples to ~7,000 offices and >13,000 sales calls per rolling 4 weeks .
  • SG&A ramped as planned to $27.6M (sequential +116%); R&D fell to $3.8M (seq. -58%), aligning with launch spend and completion of Phase 3 activities .
  • Consumer-phase DTC campaign will launch in Q1 2026 with spokesperson Sarah Jessica Parker; near-term focus remains building ECP confidence and willingness to prescribe through sampling and education .
  • Potential stock reaction catalysts: accelerating weekly scripts as retail pharmacy availability broadens mid-Q4, early refill behavior (e-pharmacy auto-refill), and Q1 2026 DTC activation with SJP .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Early launch traction: >2,500 ECP prescribers, 40% repeat prescribers, >5,000 paid scripts in October; awareness at ~90% among ECPs only weeks into launch .
  • Strong field execution: ~70,000 samples to ~7,000 offices, >13,000 sales calls on a rolling 4-week basis; 88-territory sales force and 10-person inside sales team in place .
  • Balance sheet bolstered: ~$123.5M raised via ATM in October; pro forma cash ~$324.0M as of Sept 30 to fund operations through post-launch positive cash flow .
    Quote: “We are very pleased with the first weeks of the VIZZ launch… over 2,500 unique prescribers and… over 5,000 prescriptions filled through October.” — CEO Eef Schimmelpennink .

What Went Wrong

  • No product revenue in Q3 (first product sales started in October); revenue consisted of milestone license revenue ($12.5M), not commercial sales, limiting visibility on early script-to-revenue conversion .
  • Transient adverse events surfaced in real-world use (redness/stinging), requiring expectation setting; management adjusted messaging to emphasize transient nature and mitigation tactics .
  • Retail pharmacy availability lagged (broader retail availability mid-Q4), constraining early volume to e-pharmacy and limiting script channel mix clarity; management deferred split disclosure until both channels fully available .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.0 $0.0 $5.0 $12.5
License Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.0 $0.0 $5.0 $12.5
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)$(12.945) $(16.931) $(16.857) $(18.887)
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(10.215) $(14.619) $(14.912) $(16.700)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.38) $(0.53) $(0.53) $(0.59)
SG&A ($USD Millions)$6.494 $11.113 $12.796 $27.596
R&D ($USD Millions)$6.451 $5.818 $9.061 $3.791
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$12.945 $16.931 $21.857 $31.387

Balance Sheet Highlights

MetricDec 31, 2024Mar 31, 2025Jun 30, 2025Sep 30, 2025
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$20.158 $23.042 $37.608 $25.399
Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)$188.872 $170.934 $171.911 $176.773
Total Assets ($USD Millions)$215.304 $201.252 $217.332 $210.704
Total Liabilities ($USD Millions)$11.220 $9.242 $10.967 $16.777
Total Stockholders’ Equity ($USD Millions)$204.084 $192.010 $206.365 $193.927
Pro Forma Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)———~$324.0

KPIs (Commercial Launch Indicators)

KPIQ3 2025
Unique ECP Prescribers>2,500
Repeat Prescribers (%)40%
Paid Prescriptions (Oct)>5,000
ECP Awareness (%)~90%
Samples Distributed~70,000
ECP Offices Sampled~7,000
ECPs Opted into Find-a-Doctor>9,000
Sales Calls per Rolling 4 Weeks>13,000
Sales Force Territories88
Inside Sales Team10

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Commercial DTC Launch TimingQ1 2026Early 2026 (pre-launch commentary) Q1 2026 with Sarah Jessica Parker spokesperson Maintained/Specified
SG&A vs. G&A Mix (Operating Model)FY 2026Not previously quantified in Q1 press releasesCommercial spend $80–$100M; G&A $20–$25M (≈4:1) New/Reiterated framework
Cash RunwayMulti-yearFunded to post-launch positive operating cash flow Funded to post-launch positive operating cash flow; pro forma cash ~$324.0M Maintained; Liquidity strengthened
Product AvailabilityQ4 2025Anticipated broad availability by mid-Q4 2025 Broad retail availability mid-Q4 2025; e-pharmacy active since October Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025 and Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Regulatory/ApprovalNDA on track; CBP rulings: US origin, duty-free FDA approval (July 31) announced; commercial launch in October Achieved approval; transitioned to launch
Commercial ExecutionHiring 88 sales reps; sampling strategy defined Awareness ~90%; 70k samples; 2.5k+ prescribers; >5k scripts Strengthening momentum
Adverse Events/ExpectationsPrepared Q&A & training; expectation-setting planned Transient redness/stinging; messaging tailored; mitigation guidance Managed via education
Channel AccessRetail + e-pharmacy plan e-pharmacy first; retail broad by mid-Q4; 3-pack via e-pharmacy Expanding channels
Pricing/ElasticityCash-pay model highlighted Limited pricing pushback; e-pharmacy 3-pack discount ($198) Positive early indications
Target Prescriber Mix15k ECP targets; optometry-focused 80% optometry / 20% ophthalmology targeting Confirmed strategy
DTC StrategyUnbranded campaign pre-approval; influencers later Q1 2026 DTC with SJP; predominantly digital channels Defined timeline
Ex-U.S. PartnershipsCanada, Korea/SEA; China NDA milestone License revenue $12.5M incl. $10M China milestones, $2.5M Canada Monetizing partnerships

Management Commentary

  • “We are very pleased with the first weeks of the VIZZ launch… over 2,500 unique prescribers and… over 5,000 prescriptions filled through October.” — CEO Eef Schimmelpennink .
  • “Pro forma for these placements, we ended Q3 2025 with approximately $324 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities… anticipated to fund… to post-launch positive operating cash flow.” — CFO Dan Chevallard .
  • “We will initiate our direct-to-consumer campaign… and partnered with Sarah Jessica Parker to lead the VIZZ DTC campaign.” — CCO Shawn Olsson .
  • “Already, more than 2,500 ECPs have prescribed VIZZ, with 40% writing multiple prescriptions… over 5,000 prescriptions filled through October.” — CCO Shawn Olsson .

Q&A Highlights

  • Sampling and expectation-setting: Management emphasized heavy sampling, with tailored messaging on transient redness/stinging and use of whitening agents as needed; sampling conversion will be tracked over time .
  • Script cadence and channels: >5,000 October scripts primarily via e-pharmacy, with retail coming online mid-Q4; Symphony appears to capture some e-pharmacy activity, but mix disclosure deferred until channels fully available .
  • DTC timing and media: DTC begins Q1 2026, focusing on digital platforms (Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Pinterest) to match early adopters; spokesperson SJP has used and likes the product .
  • Demographics and pricing: Early users skew female, ages 45–65, metro-heavy; limited pricing pushback observed .
  • Prescriber targeting: ~80% optometry / 20% ophthalmology; inside sales supports non-targeted interested offices; e-pharmacy ensures 2–5 day fulfillment, with auto-refill options .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q3 2025 (EPS, Revenue) were unavailable at the time of research; as such, beat/miss analysis vs. Wall Street consensus cannot be determined.
  • Management did not provide formal revenue or EPS guidance; operating spend framework for 2026 reiterated (Commercial $80–$100M; G&A $20–$25M) .
MetricQ3 2025
Primary EPS Consensus MeanN/A (S&P Global consensus unavailable)
Revenue Consensus MeanN/A (S&P Global consensus unavailable)

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Early launch metrics are encouraging; watch weekly script momentum and refill rates as retail availability broadens mid-Q4 and e-pharmacy auto-refill normalizes behavior .
  • Operating ramp is deliberate: SG&A surged as planned (to $27.6M) while R&D tapered, consistent with transition to commercialization; expect spend to remain focused on sales/marketing .
  • Liquidity is strong with ~$324.0M pro forma cash, supporting execution through consumer-phase DTC and potential positive operating cash flow post-launch — lowers financing overhang .
  • Narrative is shifting to consumer activation: Q1 2026 DTC with SJP could unlock broader demand beyond current practice-driven scripts; anticipate increased traffic to ECPs and e-pharmacy .
  • Near-term monitoring items: AEs management/education (transient redness), conversion from samples to paid scripts, mix between e-pharmacy vs retail, and demographics influencing targeted media buys .
  • International licensing can provide non-dilutive cash via milestones/royalties; Q3 license revenue ($12.5M) evidences this optionality while U.S. launch matures .
  • Tactical trading setup: Potential positive inflection with mid-Q4 retail expansion and first disclosed refill metrics; medium-term catalyst in Q1 2026 DTC launch with celebrity spokesperson .