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CE

CENTRUS ENERGY CORP (LEU)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 printed mixed: revenue rose 30% YoY to $74.9M, but gross margin swung negative on mix; diluted EPS was $0.19 vs $(0.30) a year ago and $1.59 in Q2, with net income of $3.9M (vs. $(5.0)M YoY) .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, LEU delivered an EPS beat ($0.19 vs $0.08*) but missed on revenue ($74.9M vs $80.4M*) and EBITDA (−$16.1M* vs $4.4M*); mix and an acute decline in realized SWU pricing drove the margin delta (69% drop in average SWU price on sold volumes) .
  • Strategic de‑risking advanced: DOE import waivers for 2026–2027 Russian-committed deliveries, $805M 0% converts increasing unrestricted cash to ~$1.6B, launch of a $1B ATM, and a signed KHNP/POSCO investment agreement to support the planned Piketon expansion .
  • Backlog grew to $3.9B (extends to 2040) with $3.0B in LEU and ~$0.9B in Technical Solutions; SWU spot touched ~$220 near historic highs, reinforcing the domestic enrichment thesis and providing a medium‑term stock catalyst alongside potential DOE/NNSA awards .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Two-year continuous enrichment milestone and 3.9 million machine hours validate technology readiness for scale; management reiterated the platform can meet LEU/LEU+ and HALEU needs (“two full years of continuous uranium enrichment this past October… over 3.9 million machine hours”) .
  • Balance sheet fortified: $805M 0% convertible notes (net ~$782M) lifted unrestricted cash to >$1.6B, positioning LEU ahead of public/private funding decisions; ATM shelf adds optionality .
  • Commercial de‑risking: DOE waivers secured for 2026–2027 committed imports and an agreement with KHNP/POSCO to potentially fund capacity expansion; Ohio hiring underway to accelerate readiness .

What Went Wrong

  • Margin compression: Q3 gross loss of $(4.3)M vs $8.9M YoY; LEU segment gross profit swung to $(7.8)M on mix and a 69% drop in average price of SWU sold; SWU revenue fell $24.1M .
  • Technical Solutions costs climbed: $26.6M (+$7.4M YoY) largely from the HALEU Operation Contract; portions of Phase 2 since Nov 2024 remained undefinitized and not yet subject to fee, dampening segment gross profit ($3.5M vs $3.7M YoY) .
  • Consensus miss on revenue and EBITDA despite EPS beat points to volatile quarterly mix and timing of deliveries; management emphasized variability and that annual results are more indicative .

Financial Results

Headline P&L (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)57.7 73.1 154.5 74.9
Gross Profit ($M)8.9 32.9 53.9 (4.3)
Operating Income (Loss) ($M)(7.6) 20.5 33.5 (16.6)
Net Income ($M)(5.0) 27.2 28.9 3.9
Diluted EPS ($)(0.30) 1.60 1.59 0.19

Margins (calculated from reported figures)

MarginQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Gross Margin %15.4% (=8.9/57.7) 45.0% (=32.9/73.1) 34.9% (=53.9/154.5) (5.7)% (=−4.3/74.9)
EBIT Margin %(13.2)% (=−7.6/57.7) 28.0% (=20.5/73.1) 21.7% (=33.5/154.5) (22.2)% (=−16.6/74.9)

Segment/Category Revenue (oldest → newest)

Revenue ($M)Q3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
SWU34.8 125.7 10.7
Uranium— — 34.1
Technical Solutions22.9 28.8 30.1
Total Revenue57.7 154.5 74.9

Estimates vs Actuals (Q3 2025)

MetricEstimateActualResult
EPS (diluted)$0.0833*$0.19 Beat
Revenue ($M)$80.42*$74.90 Miss
EBITDA ($M)$4.39*$(16.10)*Miss

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Balance Sheet (period-end; oldest → newest)

KPIMar 31, 2025Jun 30, 2025Sep 30, 2025
Backlog ($B)3.8 3.6 3.9
Cash & Equivalents ($M)653.0 833.0 1,631.8
Long-term Debt ($M)389.5 390.0 1,173.5
Net Cash ($M)263.5 (=653.0−389.5) 443.0 (=833.0−390.0) 458.3 (=1,631.8−1,173.5)

Guidance Changes

Metric/ItemPeriod/ScopePreviousCurrentChange
DOE HALEU Operation Contract – Phase 2 performance periodPhase 2Extended previously to Jun 30, 2025 Extended to Oct 31, 2025 Extended
Import waivers for Russian-committed deliveries2026–2027 deliveriesN/AWaivers secured New
Convertible NotesDue 2032N/A$805M 0% notes issued; net ~$782.4M New
ATM Equity ProgramUp to aggregateN/AUp to $1.0B ATM launched New
LeadershipCorporateN/ATodd Tinelli named CFO New
Hiring plan for expansionPiketon, OHN/AHiring announced to support expansion New

Note: The company did not provide quantitative revenue/EPS/margin guidance in Q3 materials; focus remains on operational readiness, contracts, and financing updates .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q1 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Technology readiness/operationsDelivered 900 kg HALEU; DOE exercised Option 1a under HALEU contract Two years of continuous enrichment; 3.9M machine hours; capability across LEU/LEU+/HALEU Strengthening
Public-private funding & capitalIRA/DOE contract backdrop; 8.25% notes redeemed; cash build $805M 0% converts; $1B ATM shelf; positioning for DOE/NNSA decisions Accelerating financing optionality
Domestic enrichment build-out & hiringReadiness initiatives underway Large-scale hiring announced in Ohio; supply-chain readiness program ongoing Ramping execution
Russian import waivers & regulatoryN/A in Q1; routine risk disclosures DOE waivers for 2026–2027 deliveries secured De-risking near term
SWU pricing/macro demandSWU price +24% YoY on Q2 mix; strong market signals SWU spot ~$220; persistent tightness expected; hyperscalers/data centers add demand Bullish pricing backdrop
National security/NNSAN/ANNSA NOI to sole-source AC-100 unobligated LEU; company stands ready Emerging catalyst

Management Commentary

  • “With LEU SWU prices near historic highs, there is clear, accelerating market demand for a new U.S.-owned enrichment supply…” — Amir Vexler, CEO .
  • “We reached a milestone of two full years of continuous uranium enrichment this past October… over 3.9 million machine hours.” — CEO .
  • “We filed a shelf registration and… a $1 billion… at-the-market offering… using equity to raise capital at this time is a prudent solution given our strong valuation and lower cost of capital…” — Todd Tinelli, CFO .
  • “Centrus received waivers… to continue to import LEU for all currently committed deliveries to U.S. customers in years 2026 and 2027. This… helps to de‑risk that side of our business.” — CEO .
  • “The combination of just these two events [U.S. large reactor builds and upgrades] could equate to a need for an additional roughly 2.5 million SWU per year.” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • National security opportunity: Management acknowledged NNSA’s NOI to sole-source AC‑100 unobligated LEU enrichment; awaits further communication; LEU prepared to support mission .
  • Build-out readiness: Detailed “readiness efforts” (cycle time, first-article manufacturing, workforce build) to accelerate post-award execution; large-scale Ohio hiring underway .
  • SWU pricing and capacity: Tight market expected; prices near all-time highs; price relief requires excess capacity, which management does not see near term .
  • Funding timing: Possible government shutdown impacts on DOE timelines acknowledged as unknown; focus remains on diversified capital stack (public funding and private offtake/partners) .
  • Demand signals: Hyperscaler/data center and SMR momentum increasing; HALeU interest moving from MOUs to commitments, with mix to be driven by customer demand .

Estimates Context

  • EPS beat: $0.19 vs $0.0833* on cost/income items and mix; however, revenue missed ($74.9M vs $80.4M*) as SWU realized pricing and delivery mix weighed on the LEU segment in the quarter .
  • EBITDA miss: $(16.1)M* vs $4.39M* reflects negative gross profit on LEU and higher HALEU costs in Technical Solutions, with portions of Phase 2 not yet fee-bearing .

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quarterly volatility remains high due to timing/mix of multi‑year LEU contracts; investors should anchor on full-year cadence and backlog visibility ($3.9B) .
  • Strategic de‑risking advanced meaningfully (waivers, converts, ATM, KHNP/POSCO agreement), improving capacity to co‑fund the U.S. enrichment build-out .
  • Macro tailwinds intensify: SWU at ~$220 and expanding nuclear demand from utilities, SMRs, and hyperscalers point to sustained pricing support and future contracting leverage .
  • Near-term catalysts: DOE task orders across HALEU/LEU frameworks and any NNSA sole-source award clarity; Ohio hiring/supply-chain milestones; incremental private offtake/partner announcements .
  • Watch the ATM overhang and deployment discipline—management cites prudent use at lower cost of capital to pre‑fund build expectations; beneficial if matched by award/contract flow .
  • Risk monitor: Regulatory/geopolitical exposures (Russia, export licenses), DOE funding timing, and ability to convert contingent LEU commitments into definitive agreements at favorable pricing .

Why Q3 looked the way it did

  • LEU segment: Revenue mix pivoted to uranium ($34.1M) while SWU revenue fell $24.1M on a 69% drop in average SWU pricing; LEU gross profit turned to $(7.8)M, pressuring consolidated margins .
  • Technical Solutions: Revenue +31% YoY to $30.1M on HALEU contract progress, but $8.5M cost increase (with portions not yet fee-bearing) limited margin contribution .
  • Below-the-line: Investment income (−$12.9M) and tax benefit (−$11.9M expense line becomes benefit) aided net income; diluted EPS landed at $0.19 .

Citations:
Press release and 8‑K Q3 2025:
Earnings call transcript Q3 2025: and -
Other Q4’25 PRs: ATM program -; Ohio JobsOhio initiative -; Webcast notice
Prior quarters: Q2 2025 8‑K -; Q1 2025 8‑K -